Severe Weather possible for southern Manitoba, this evening.

Much of southern Manitoba is at risk for severe weather late this afternoon into this evening.

Southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a southerly flow today with temperatures reaching into the mid to high 20's with humidex values near and around 38 to 42C. An approaching trough and cold front to the west of our area will encounter the warm and humid airmass that is in place allowing a potential for powerful storms to occur. Let's have a look at the data.

Moisture: Dewpoints will be in the 18 to 21C range, for the most part with a chance for a few areas to have dewpoints about near 25C. Ample moisture will be in place. The question is the capping, because the moisture and heat may rise high enough in mid levels to prevent storms from forming. The cold front may or may not be sufficent to allow for enough cooling to occur at mid levels. And allow the cap to break.

Shear: Definitely not lacking at all, EHI values of 3 to 5 and Helicity mainly the highest west of Winnipeg into the Red River Valley around 8pmish 300 to 500 m2/s-2. Supercelluar structure is definitely possible, and or high winds. Sufficient enough for storm organization.

Instability: Sufficient instability will be in place for southern Manitoba this afternoon/evening, mlcapes and SBCapea will be on the order of 3,000 to near 5,000. With Lifted indices on the order of -7 to -10.

Trigger: The cold front will be coming in from southeastern Saskatchewan and moving into southwestern Manitoba over the next few hours into the Red River Valley area by the evening. Should provide focus for convective development as well as possible supercells.


The environment in place will end up resulting in severe thunderstorm/supercells formation somewhere between Brandon and the area east of Winnipeg, all depending on the timing of storms firing. If Storms do manage to form there will be a chance for discrete supercells to occur and pose a tornado threat. There is around 1 million or so people in that risk area for tornadic development, including Brandon and Winnipeg. There is a risk for hail up to golfball and or baseball size hail to occur, Once storms organize later on this evening the threat for damaging winds could be present with an ongoing large hail threat (up to baseball size hail), wind threat for winds over 100km/h, rainfall potential up to 50mm or more, and frequent dangerous lightning. Storm threat should ease up somewhat as storms travel into Northwest Ontario or southeastern Manitoba depending on where they form.

I will keep you updated as the evening goes on. -Mike

Severe Thunderstorms likely this evening into the overnight.

Good evening, everyone Mike here. Southern Manitoba looks like it may have one of the first severe weather events of the year this evening as we head into the overnight, a trough of low pressure this evening into the overnight will encounter a  hot and humid airmass in place this evening. This will allow for cooler and more stable conditions to come in play for the rest of the weekend.

A cold front crossing the province this evening into the overnight and morning, will be able to create the potential for severe thunderstorms. Looking at the data I have compiled there is sufficient ingredients available for severe weather to occur in our area, that could last well through the night. Let's use the MIST principle from A Weather Moment.

Moisture: A steady stream of gulf moisture will continue filling in to the area of the Red River Valley into Southeastern Manitoba with dewpoints (a good measure of what the humidity levels are like in the atmosphere, the closer the dew point is to the actual temperature the more likely it feels like a sauna in the summer under hot conditions. In the spring/fall it'll feel more like someone watered your lawn.) averaging between 15 to 20C, there will be no shortage of humidity which will allow the humidex values to peak to about 35 to 42C in areas.

Instability: With sufficient surface heating which occurred today and continues this evening, Instability in general is enough to fire severe thunderstorms. CAPEs will be on the order of 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg, less as the night goes on. Lifted indicies will also be between -2 and -8 at the max.

Shear: Bulk Shear of 20 to 50 knots and EHI values of 1 to 3 will be enough to support storm organization all based on current HRRR data and Data from the RDPS.

Trigger: Will be a cold front stalling out to the west of the Red River Valley and it moving east overnight, and an arrival of a frontal disturbance coming up from Montana and Wyoming overnight.

The photo I used above highlights the threat of severe weather for the area for the evening into tomorrow in Southern Manitoba. I only filled in the map with the lines, versus filling it in with colour so when looking at it your able to see better. In conclusion expect a line of discrete supercells or severe thunderstorms to form west of Winnipeg between 6 to 9pm and travel east northeast with additional storms likely heading into the late evening period. The main risks will be wind gusts over 1000km/h, hail up to the size of quarters, ping pong balls, or  golf balls, Heavy rain in excess of 50mm, frequent and dangerous lightning, and a very small risk of tornadoes. The risk of tornadoes is a 5 to 10% chance, low risk. U

The storms we get overnight will likely travel along the Red River Valley or a bit to the southeast of the valley depending on how things go with the setup. Justin and I will update you as things progress. The storms overnight might be a little less severe as heating from the day is diminished, the good news though is that we will get the needed moisture for this area of the province. A chance for thunderstorms redevelop tomorrow afternoon although non severe with a few sub severe cells possible.  A note a severe thunderstorm watch is in place for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley including parts of Westman. Full details here, for updates: https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb

I look forward to tracking the storms with you all, this evening. Stay safe! Pray we get a good rain, God bless- Mike

Colorado low to continue to affect Southern Manitoba until Tuesday.

Southern Manitoba is expected to be impacted by a Colorado low overnight tonight into early Tuesday, light snow and deteriorating conditions are already occurring with reports of highways being snow covered with blowing snow and poor visibilities. No highways have been closed as of yet, however closures may result as snow accumulates and roadways start becoming difficult and dangerous for travel especially with blowing snow, and poor visibility. 

                                        

                                     

Snow impacting much of Southern Manitoba, as moisture streams in from the south, (from Rain Viewer IOS at 10:05pm)

Snowfall warnings are in place for a wide swath of southern Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg, city of Morden, city of Winkler, city of Steinbach and the city of Brandon.

Current thinking is that most areas running from south of the Trans Canada Highway especially from the USA Border towards the corridor of Highway 2 could pick up as much as 15 to 25+cm, areas running from the Trans Canada highway from Elkhorn to just south of Whitemouth including Winnipeg and Brandon could 10-20cm. From the parklands by Russell into the inter lakes, and eastern Manitoba by Bissett could get 5-10cm. Areas by the lakes will get a Trace to 5cm. Keep in mind the snow we get will be light and fluffy, as temperatures remain too cold to hold a lot of moisture in the snow, not a lot of water content in the snow. So it’ll be easier to shovel. Current Guidance suggests that this system will have some brisk northerly winds to about 15 to 30km/h gusting to 50km/h at times. Highway travel will be rough, that is why me and Justin will be posting highway travel updates. I wouldn’t suggest any one travel, but if you are going to please don’t forget to bring your travel kit with you, or youll end up becoming like the abominable snow man while you look for help. 😂😂😂 No one wants to end up seeing you covered in snow with your eyebrows frozen and face snow covered, you may end up causing an accident and both of you may end up becoming like the abominable snow man and stranded for good. 😂😂 Once this system clears out on Tuesday evening we should end up getting light snow behind the system. There will be cold north winds coming in behind this system , windchill values will go from being at minus 20 on Monday into the minus 30s and minus 40’s for the middle of the week into the weekend.



Stay tuned for updates on Manitoba Weather Center with me and Justin.

Showers and Thunderstorms, some severe to occur this evening into Thursday Morning.

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a incoming northward moving warm front that will put the city of Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley at risk of Thunderstorms some severe through the Red River Valley and into NW Ontario. As MUCAPES exceed 1,000 J/Kg, and Lifted Indicies reach -5 to -7. Severe thunderstorm occurence is not out of the question, with these thunderstorms that occur overnight. Tornado potential is there albeit a slight risk as shear Helicity readings are about 600 to 700,, around  around 10pm-4am potential in the Red River Valley is there for Violent Tornadoes. As far everything else is concerned this system will have a potential threat for very heavy amounts of rainfall and wind gusts over 90km/h at times. Intense lightning will also accompany these thunderstorms as well. Full discussion from environment Canada below,. 

083   

FOCN45 CWWG 121900  

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM  

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY  

SEPTEMBER 12 2018.  

EASTERN PRAIRIES...JET SUPPORTED CONVECTION SOUTHWESTERN SK TODAY  

WITH 10 TO 20 MM POSSIBLE AND RISK OF THUNDER. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY  

EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MB BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS BECOMES REALIZED IN  

A BIG WAY IS QUESTIONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT, HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT  

REBOUNDING THRU THE DAKOTAS WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJ SUGGESTS  

POTENTIALLY SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING THIS EVENING  

ALONG A LINE BRANDON-VICTORIA BEACH WITH THE LINE TRANSLATING  

EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT. TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD GIVE OVER  

50 MM OF RAIN, BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE  

• LINE BECOMES PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THUSDAY MORNING.  
  

Severe weather likely for the night ahead..

Update for Southern Manitoba

Area(s): Southern and Central

 

Timing: Monday evening and overnight

Threats: 3-5 cm hail and wind gusts 100-120 km/h over the southeast, 2-3 cm hail, 90-100 km/h wind gusts over south central; locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and pea sized hail elsewhere

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening hours along a trough of low pressure over Western Manitoba and push eastwards across Central and Southern Manitoba during the late evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms will initially have the potential to produce 3-5 cm hail and 100-120 km/h wind gusts over southwestern areas. A moderate threat of severe thunderstorms will continue to exist as these thunderstorms push eastward into the Interlake and Red River Valley. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken overnight as they move into southeastern areas. Elsewhere, non-severe thunderstorms will be possible giving locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail.

Update: Showers and Thunderstorms expected to impact a large part of Southern Manitoba tonight.

Southern Manitoba is expected to be impacted by copious amounts of rainfall over the next several hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to blossom over a large part of the northern North Dakota’s. 

As these thunderstorms move into a cooler airmass further north, odds are that they may weaken a bit more as MUCapes are only in the 800-1,200J/Kg range anywhere north of Highway 3 and north of Emerson. Better dynamics for severe weather are further south, where MUCAPES are in the 3,000 J/Kg range. Lifted indices and general Instability is lacking albeit moisture is sufficient for copious amounts of rain (PWATS near 40mm) can be expected to fall with dew points in the mid teens and temperatures only a few degrees above the dew pointin much of southern Manitoba, Shear is not even slightly a concern as storms for tonight are not surface based. Tornadoes won’t be a concern from this system. With a warm front parked over southern Manitoba and temperatures remaining quite cooler than average thunderstorms will likely be a issue tonight. What all this means is that strong to possibly severe thunderstorms can be expected throughout the night providing heavy rainfall, small hail and wind gusts possibly over 80km/h, especially in areas along the Canada USA border. Heavy rain is more likely over areas further north, which looks like it should provide sufficient drought relief. 

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the morning timeframe with showers continuing into the afternoon and evening tomorrow. In all 15 to 30mm can be expected with higher amounts in thunderstorms. 

Enjoy the rain!!!

-Mike

Severe weather threat through the weekend, more seasonable weather for the week.

e Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a sultry hot-humid airmass that will allow for humidex readings in the low to mid 40’s all a result of a low pressure system, impacting the area into Saturday evening. Ample amounts of instability will be available for storms to form and sustain themselves this evening, warnings are already in place for much of the inter lake region as storms dive southeast.  Most of the abundant areas of energy with CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/Kg-3000J/Kg max will be situated from the parklands south east into the Red River Valley on into Northwestern Ontario. Shear will be more directional towards tthe parklands and into the inter lakes with bulk shear into the 50 knots range. Shear is less as you go further south into the Red River Valley with still at least 30-40 knots, With ample amounts of instability in place. As the trough line moves through there is a possibility of storms to develop in the Red River Valley ahead of the main batch of storms  in the inter lake, if they do they will be explosive as the cap has held back storm development so far today. As the evening goes on expect storms to travel south eastwards and eventually impact the city of Winnipeg and eastern portions of southern Manitoba. The risk for Hail possibly as big as golf balls will persist through the evening as storms have the history of producing hail that size in the northern inter lake. Considering there is a chance of storms becoming weaker as they encounter capping the risk of severe weather would decrease, that’s why we’ll have to monitor storms to see  how they react to the warmer air in upper levels. If not then the same risk would apply for large hail up to golf ball size, flooding rains with 50mm in some areas, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and winds in excess of 90km/h. Storms should clear by late evening, more thunderstorms are expected to travel into southern Manitoba from North Dakota overnight with the best risk to the east in the white shell. Temperatures should only drop into the low 20’s and high teens tonight so not much in the way of cooling expected. I will have a update on tomorrow’s weather in the morning, more storms likely in the afternoon with the Red River valley with the best chance.