Colder weather pattern arrives could stay for a week, first snow of the year possible.

 Well it’s sad to say but our region is pretty much done with the summer like warmth that we have experienced over the past several weeks. Yesterday much of the region saw temperatures in the high teens and low 20’s, unfortunately this weather pattern looks to change. A colder weather pattern is beginning to take shape as fall takes hold, you can thank this to a strong northwesterly flow aloft and a trough of low pressure that will be bringing in moisture from the north. There will be a good chance of rain and snow. Find out when and where we expect snow and how cold it will get, in this weeks weather update. 

(Above: Coldest temperatures in a long time expected to impact a large portion of southern Manitoba on Thursday. Temperatures only reaching the mid single digits or lower). 

Wednesday: Todays weather will be dominated by a northwesterly flow aloft which will bring in significant amounts of cloud cover, overcast skies are likely. Temperatures today will only rise into the mid to high single digits, some localities could reach 10C today. There also will be a chance for showers or flurries to develop as the day goes on, off the Manitoba lakes. 

Wednesday Night (Above): This is when things get interesting, a strong north to northwest flow will be in place which will allow for squalls to develop off of lake Winnipeg and lake Manitoba in lesser strength. Regardless a significant amount of snow is expected east of lake Winnipeg. A general 5-10cm of snow could fall east of lake Winnipeg , mainly near Bissett, Victoria Beach, Manigotgan areas. As for the areas of the red river valley and the inter lakes there will likely be some lake effect snow, a general 2 to 4cm is likely west of and including Winnipeg. Take note that initially the snow will likely melt in contact before it accumulates. 

Thursday (Above): It looks like this will end up being the coldest days of the week, snow will likely continue for a large section of areas just east of lake Winnipeg. There’s a chance there could be ongoing bands of snow off of lake Winnipeg. Accumulations will vary from 20 to 25cm on the east shore of lake Winnipeg, to 5 to 10cm in total west of Winnipeg off lake Manitoba snow. Then towards the latter half of the day snow will develop over a large area from the Ontario border to about as far west as the red river valley including the inter lakes filling in with the snow bands. Some of this could be mixed with rain. A general 5 to 10cm can be expected for areas that haven’t received snow from the bands of lake affect snow. 

Thursday Night: Snow showers will likely continue aided by a northerly flow over the southern half of Manitoba, as the low sags south a large area of the snow that is expected to impact eastern Manitoba will slowly filter west to the southwestern portions of Manitoba with the pesky squalls ending by the early overnight. (See snowfall totals above).  Then from north to south clearing should take over. A general 20 to 30cm is likely in the areas east of Lake Winnipeg, and 5 to 15cm over the headingly, elie and Winnipeg area. My general thinking is that the HRRR is possibly overdoing amounts for the band west of Winnipeg. So I think 10cm to 15cm is reasonable, given the 20cm it’s suggesting is highly unlikely. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid minus single digits in western Manitoba, areas under snow and cloud will see lows drop into the low plus single digits. Areas in eastern Manitoba can expect those lows to drop into the low minus single digits.  Most of the snow should clear the region by overnight with lingering rain and snow showers in the interlakes into southern Manitoba. 

Friday: The low pressure system will begin to move into northwestern Ontario as it does so warmer air will begin to move in showers and flurries are possible during the day with a lot of cloudcover still present. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits for a large area of southern Manitoba. Snow should melt rapidly at these temperatures. 

Friday Night: Another low pressure system , with a trough attached and a cold front will usher in another round of snowfall into the morning on Saturday for areas of western Manitoba more than likely. It looks like it will be a brief but quick burst of snow overnight in western portions of Manitoba with only 2 to 5cm possibly by morning. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the low minus single digits along areas south of highway 1 before moderating overnight in the low single digits, in various areas as cloud cover moves in.

The weekend: Slightly Warmer weather arrives with temperatures rising into the mid to high single digits with a chance for showers on Saturday, that clears on Saturday night with a chance for lake effect flurries. Sunday is when colder weather is likely and lake effect snow is possible with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid single digits on Saturday, Saturday night lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the west and interlakes and low plus single digits in areas of the south central and southeast. Sunday will see highs in the low single digits with lows in the low single digits and low minus single digits in the western half of Manitoba. 

Long Range: It looks like later in the week the cold weather will persist as we remain on the east side of high pressure with similar highs and lows. It also appears that the summer weather will possibly return midweek with above normal temperatures in the mid to high teens, or low 20’s with overnight lows in the high single digits. How long this will stay for is still unclear. 

Last Gasp of Above Seasonal Weather, cooling trend to follow.

 Southern Manitoba has basked in unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks, with temperatures in the mid to high teens and often in the low to mid 20’s. It’s been so warm that mosquitoes are still biting. Will things change!?? However it’s going to cool off unfortunately a change in the weather pattern is expected as cool arctic air will filter south thanks to an area of high pressure for up to 48 hours. Find out what this means for our weather over the second half of the week. (Don’t mind me and the late post I had a delicious thanksgiving lunch which put me out for a bit). 

Wednesday Night: Much of the region of southern sections of Manitoba will see cold weather filter in tonight , a northerly flow will move in with a chance for showers and flurries. A chance that some may stream off of the Manitoba lakes as well, only a trace to 2cm is possible overnight low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid single digits. Some areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the low minus single digits. 

Thursday: Will end up being a colder than average day arctic high pressure will sit over our area,  some cloud will stream over and off the lakes as cold air funnels over the relatively warm waters. There’s a chance for some early morning flurries and showers. The rest of the day should bring in some sun and cloud. Nothing significant weather wise is expected. Unfortunately temperatures aren’t expected to rise much with them only rising into the mid single digits, maybe near 10C. Get out your fall clothing!

Thursday Night: A clear night will lead to cold overnight lows with a majority of the region seeing low temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C). Yes that cold!! Good news is that the cold will not last long. So the morning on Friday will be quite cold. I would say however that it’s normal for this time of year, summer has to end unfortunately. 

Friday: Sunny beautiful weather is expected into the afternoon before thicker clouds move in late afternoon over the lakes and the parklands and interlakes showers are possible in extreme eastern sections.  High temperatures, will once again climb back to their normal values with some areas just a tad below seasonal. Temperatures are likely to reach the high single digits in the southeast, and the south central, interlakes and southwest and parklands seeing highs in the low to mid teens. 

Friday Night: An area of increasing cloud will move in during the early evening with some rain showers continuing . There’s a possibility that nothing may come out of it, overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits areas around the lakes will likely see lows in the high single digits. 

The Weekend: Much of the region will see warm weather this weekend,, a return to warm and seasonal weather will be likely. Temperatures will rise into the mid teens on Saturday.. Saturday night will see lows in the low to mid single digits in the west and central parts of Manitoba . Then low minus single digits are likely in southeast Manitoba. Sunday mostly sunny weather is likely in the mid to high teens with some areas possibly reaching the 20C range only near the American border. Sunday night is expected to be much of the same with lows in the high single digits to the low teens. 

Long Range: Extremely hotter than average weather looks possible with high temperatures returning to the  low to mid 20’s on Monday the to high 20’s on Tuesday with overnight lows in the low teens on Monday night and mid to high teens on Tuesday night. Fluctuating temperatures are likely to occur during the week with highs around normal to slightly above average. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected but will have to watch for showers or weak thunderstorms on the warmer days, although if not sunny weather is likely .  

Heat and Humidity briefly return, late season severe weather threat arrives.

 Hello folks, this could be an interesting next few days ahead. Our region of the province will likely encounter another round of unusual warmth, humidity and summer like temperatures. Whats unusual is we have to look out for severe thunderstorms at the start of the week. Find out more about the severe weather potential and when this pattern will change and what to expect for the first half of the week. 

Monday: During the day a warm front will be expected to move into southern regions of Manitoba, this low pressure system will lift north into southern sections of Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of CAPE 1,000 to 1,500 from southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley is likely to take shape. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the high teens to low 20’s in much of southern sections of Manitoba, the dew point will not to be too far off from the actual temperature so the humidex values will rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s which gives the average humidity levels close to 50 to 75%.

(Above): HRRR model suggesting the possibility of severe weather in the red river valley and interlakes areas of Manitoba after development in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

NAM model below suggesting similar conditions except later in the evening, and further north.

For the day Monday, model data appears to be in agreement now place in regards to placement and timing, as last night was still all over the place. The HRRR is in agreement with a lot of the higher resolution models and the NAM, which places thunderstorms developing and moving through the southwest part of Manitoba during the morning and early afternoon. By early to mid afternoon most of the instability will have built up. The red river valley, interlakes area in Manitoba should be on the lookout for showers and thunderstorm development during the afternoon, before a slight risk for severe storms moves in by late afternoon. 

(Dave Carlsens Tweet above talking about the severe weather threat possible later tod afternoon into the evening.)
There also will be a risk area in southwestern Manitoba with higher supercell composite values with the risk for tornadic development moving east as the evening goes on. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex by evening is possible that could travel east into the red river valley, supercells are still possible. Despite the sun setting earlier now storms will be fuelled by a large area of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg of CAPE with Energy Helicity values of 1 to 4 and shear in the range of 30 to 50 knots which will be Centred over the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as the cold front moves through in the evening. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible as they move east as a cold front Stay tuned to Manitoba weather center for updates, as well as my twitter page. 

Monday Night: Expect any thunderstorms to clear the area by evening, and late evening a northwesterly flow will take hold. Mostly cloudy skies are expected into the day on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tuesday: Another calm sunny day is in store with a cold front moving through on the day Tuesday, a small chance of showers is expected in the southeast part of Manitoba. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday Night: A high pressure system will begin to dig southwards with a large area of cloud cover, moving southwards with it. Cloudy skies are expected by the morning hours on Wednesday. 

Wednesday: Much of the same weather can be expected with cloudy skies and high temperatures only rising into the mid to high teens. Areas in more rural regions will be in the higher single digits . 

Slightly cooler weather with Showers and Thunderstorms

 Southern sections of Manitoba will likely experience a period of unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, a low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba bringing with it another round of unsettled weather with showers and potential thunderstorms. Find out when and where in this weeks blog. 

Wednesday: This is when the pattern begins to change, a low pressure system will be off to our southwest in Montana, ahead of it a large area of cloud cover will filter into the region bringing with it a moist airmass. There will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as the system approaches, there also will be a large area of showers moving through the central parts of Manitoba in through the interlakes and western Manitoba including southwestern Manitoba. There’s a smaller chance for showers south of the Manitoba lakes. Amounts of 5-10mm is likely in the areas that receive rainfall. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will reach the mid to high teens with areas closer to the American border along and south of highway 1 seeing highs in the low 20’s. 

Wednesday night (Above simulated radar, lightning density, and rainfall amounts in inches for Wednesday Night): This is where the weather gets interesting, by early evening a large area of warm air will move north as a warm front sits just to the south of the border. This will allow thunderstorms to develop over southwestern Manitoba moving into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. As these sit over the same area with the warm front staying just south of the border there’s the  likelihood of them training and moving over the same area for long periods of time, the reason being the flow will be west to east and the warm air advection will not move much further north than just south of the lakes. This may increase the risk for flash flooding potential. I will monitor this as more data comes in. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits to the low teens, on Wednesday night. 

Thursday and Friday: Calmer weather will arrive , there will be mostly cloudy skies expected on the day Thursday. There will also be cooler temperatures with highs on Thursday reaching the mid teens. Thursday night much of the same with low temperatures reaching the low teens and high single digits. Friday will only see highs in the low teens. 

Above Seasonal Temperatures Diminishing, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to start the week.

 I apologize for not having any blog posts on the hot weather over the last few days. I took some time off for the long weekend, it was enjoyable as I was able to spend time with family and friends. Anyways Southern sections of Manitoba are likely to expect another day or 2 of hot weather, there’s also a chance for some showers and thunderstorms find out when and where in this blog weather update. 

Temperatures above for the day on Wednesday showing the reality of the heat over western Canada. Some areas seeing highs in the low 30’s. 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the nicest days of the week , high pressure will be off to our east in the northeastern USA which will contribute to a warmer than average airmass over our area. Temperatures during the day will soar into the mid to high 20’s with the hottest of the weather in southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley. 

Wednesday Night: A warm front and low pressure system will move through our area overnight the dynamics however are not as strong for severe weather than previously thought. There’s high amounts of instability with Thunderstorm energy in the 1,000 to 2,000 range but there will be sufficient capping (prevents storm formation as a layer of warm air overtakes areas where cold air is needed for storms) and limited amounts of moisture. If storms do form only isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible, with a very slight chance of a isolated severe storm. Best threat is in the red river valley late night early morning.  Temperatures will sit in the high teens to low 20’s on Wednesday night. 

Thursday: The low pressure system I mentioned will move out of the region bringing with it a chance for some showers or weak thunderstorms in the morning hours. Mainly cloudy skies are possible for the rest of the day with most of the moisture moving off to the east. Temperatures will probably reach the high teens to low 20’s for, the coldest of the air is expected to be in the west with warmer highs in the mid 20’s in extreme southeast Manitoba. 

Thursday night: Calmer weather is likely with a chance of clearing in some areas of the west. The cloud cover, fortunately will sit over the eastern half of Manitoba. With us being on the right side of high pressure it will give us a northerly flow aloft. Our temperatures will drop possibly into the mid single digits (3 to 5C) for the first time this fall especially in western Manitoba, sections of the red river valley and the interlakes. Winnipeg and southeastern Manitoba may see lows in the low teens. 

Friday: Will end up being sunny but a cooler than average day, our highs will only reach the mid to high teens. A persistent northerly flow will be part of the issue. Friday night temperatures will drop into the mid to high single digits across the south, these are more like October overnight lows. Frost is also a risk , once again I hate that darn Jack Frost. 😆😆. 

The Weekend: Warmer weather arrives , on Saturday temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s is possible overnight lows in the high single digits in the west and east and low teens in the red river valley. Most of the warmer weather coming on Sunday, I’m looking at a return to temperatures in the high 20’s on Sunday and into the week where high temperatures in the low 30’s are possible with lows in the mid teens to low 20’s.  Humidity may increase as well so we will have to watch for showers, thunderstorms. However it could end up being a dry heat with current data showing low dew points. That could change especially near the end of the week as a trough of low pressure builds in. That’s another reason why I don’t trust long range forecasts , data is inconsistent. 

Heat and Humidity increasing , potential chances of showers and thunderstorms

This week in southern Manitoba will experience one of the warmest rounds of weather we have seen in at least a few weeks, a ridge will move in over our area. A southerly to southwesterly flow will move into our region, boosting temperatures as we move towards the middle of the week. 

However today a trough of low pressure will be moving  out of our region bringing in a northwesterly flow aloft, earlier today showers and some heavy rainfall moved through as the trough sat over our area. Cloudy skies are likely in areas of south central and southeastern Manitoba today, with sunny skies in the southwest part of Manitoba. Temperatures today will only sit in the 19-21C range to low 20’s, with the warmer air in the western half of Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be cooler, just below or around 10C in forested regions of southeast Manitoba. Temperatures elsewhere will drop into the low to mid teens. For the rest of the week, there’s a good chance of some beautiful warm weather moving in. How warm???!! 

Temperatures on Tuesday will jump into the mid to high 20’s, then on Wednesday we will finally start seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s, on Thursday temperatures in the high 20’s to low 30’s maybe mid 30’s. Dewpoint temperatures will also sit in the mid to high teens, which may increase the overall humidex to the low to mid 30’s then on Thursday into the high 30’s. Overnight lows this week will drop into the low to mid teens on Tuesday night and on Wednesday night into the high teens to low 20’s in the parklands. There’s likely going to be an increased risk of potential thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday  as a low pressure system with a cold front moves in from northern Saskatchewan.

(Above Wednesday and Thursday data for storm instability).  Whether severe storms will happen is dependant on how much moisture and instability arrives. Capping may be an issue but this far out is hard to say for sure. We will monitor it. This weather will be quite warm for the month of September our average is 21C this time of year in Winnipeg. 

Have a great week everyone!

Heat and Humidity Return; increasing severe weather threat

 Southern Manitoba is poised to experience another round of heat and humidity, surprisingly we are already into late August and by this time we would already be seeing cooler temperatures more similar to fall. Weird weather eh!??? 🤦‍♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣 However you can thank all of this heat and humidity to a ridge of high pressure that brought temperatures into the low to mid 30’s over BC and Alberta, this pattern won’t stay as the ridge moves through our area it will be flattening in the process as a low pressure system rides over the northern end of it. This could potentially lead to some hot humid and stormy weather, find out when and where in this weekend’s blog. Details for Friday night are included. 😊. 

(Above: Dewpoint temperatures forecast for Saturday evening, this humidity will stick around for Sunday as well. This humidity will provide a perfect environment for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening).

Friday Night: This is when the humidity will increase and most of the noticeable mild weather arrives, high pressure will move off to our east allowing for a southerly flow to continue to spill northwards. Mild overnight lows in the mid to high teens are likely in central and eastern Manitoba, low to mid teens are likely in the western part of Manitoba. There’s a chance for increasing clouds in the southeast with a very small chance for showers in the southeast portion of Manitoba. 

Saturday: Will start off cloudy in the southeast but overall it should clear out by the noon hour, Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s, dew point temperatures will rise into the high teens to low 20’s. It will end up feeling like the mid to high 30’s with the humidex. Of concern later in the day will be a warm front coming through which will increase the risk of storms along a large area of 1,000 to 2,500 J/Kg of CAPE with 1-4 on the supercell composite scale which could bring in possible supercells in the late afternoon  which will be centered over south central and southwest Manitoba. Isolated to scattered storms are possible and some of them may end up being severe. Scattered storms are possible during the late afternoon. A better chance comes in on Saturday night.

Saturday Night: This is where things get interesting, a low pressure system with a attached warm front will move through southwestern Manitoba during the early evening likely encountering an already hot and humid airmass. There are signals that a cluster of strong thunderstorms may form along the boundary before dinner time south of lake Manitoba with them moving into the red river valley by the evening hours. If you are planning for camping best advice is to prepare for deteriorating weather conditions and pay attention to weather alerts that get posted. Once storms move through, temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens staying well above our normal overnight lows. Some areas near lake Manitoba and lake Winnipeg may end up being cooler with lows around 10 to 15C. 

Sunday: Will be another hot and humid day with a stream of moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, the latest NAM 18Z has an area of showers moving in during the morning with clearing during the afternoon which seems to be an outlier at this point in time. As current thinking I’m sitting with is that with the heat and humidity increasing there will be another day of possible unstable weather. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s ahead of a cold front, dewpoint temperatures will also rise throughout the day but will drop off as the front moves east which will make most humidity stick around in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. If you combine the fact dew points will be in the high teens and low 20’s, sufficient CAPE will exist which will allow large instability upwards of 3,000J/Kg. Thunderstorms look possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon into the late afternoon. The threat shifts east into the supper hours into evening for the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. If the front slows down there will exist a severe threat further west than Winnipeg, which could give the valley a chance of convection. Based on data the best areas for convection on Sunday evening are portage la prairie all points east to the Ontario border, so all of south central southeast Manitoba into Eastern North Dakota and NW Minnesota. It will not be an all day rain event but some localities could see thunderstorms more than others, so nothing widespread but more scattered. 

 

Sunday Night (Above): The threat for convection and or severe storms will persist into the overnight period for south central and southeastern Manitoba as the front takes a while to pull through the ridge dominating the USA. There’s a chance for strong to severe storms with possible straight line winds as a threat with hail possibly as well. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens overnight. 

The week ahead: Much calmer weather  but more seasonal temperatures look to be in store with highs in the low to mid 20’s and lows in the low to mid teens once again with the possibility of lows in the high single digits.