Happy Holiday's from Mike's Amatuer Weather Blog

Here's wishing you and your family a very happy holiday's, and an awesome new year in 2013!

I sure hope we have an interesting year in 2013, and hopefully we get a lot of thunderstorms during the Summer season we need it to keep ourselves from having another drought like the summer of 2011 and 2012. Well all the best, I wish you all a wonderful holiday season!

Quiet Weather To Exist Through Christmas Holiday's

Generally quiet weather will exist for the christmas holidays in Southern Manitoba with little to no precipitation expected during the period. Also you will be glad to hear that there won't be any significant storm systems over the next few weeks, giving us a break from shovelling. The only thing to watch for will be cloudcover and off and on light flurries at times during the holiday's especially on days whenever there is a Northwest flow present. Temperatures will be seasonably cool with daytime highs sitting anywhere from the minus teens to minus single digits, though it might feel colder during the overnight periods with low's getting into the minus 20's to possibly minus 30's. Always keep tabs on the windchill it makes it feel a lot colder than the actual temperature when it's around. Keep yourself warm on those cold days, be sure to bundle up! 

I hope you all have a wonderful Christmas folk's! If you are planning on traveling via air or ground the weather should be great and there won't be much in terms of affect for transportation. Hope Santa is good to you all! 

Long Awaited Blog Update On The Way When Our Weather Pattern Changes (Sometime this Week)

After a few weeks of waiting another blog update will be on the way sometime this week when our weather pattern changes, I will post it in reply to Rob's Blog when he provides an update. I am trying to gain experience and learn how to provide weather updates so that I may sometime in 2013 or 2014 be able to provide them on my own. In the meantime I will continue to provide updates with the help of other weather blog's. 

See you all at the start of the week!

Freezing Rain To Bring A Return To Colder Weather

Our wild weather will continue today as another low pressure system tracks through the Interlake regions, bringing with it mild temperatures and the likelihood of freezing rain for all of Southern Manitoba, including cities of Winnipeg and Brandon.

Freezing rain a possibility tonight as an area of low pressure moves through the area.

Warm air will be pumped into southern Manitoba today as strong southerly winds develop ahead of a major low pressure system that will bring heavy snowfall to the northern parts of Manitoba, though we will not go into detail on that story as that is out of my coverage region.
"850 MB Temperatures will climb to nearly 5C today, providing an ample above freezing level" According to A Weather Moment. Though the bulk of the precipitation will fall in central and northern Manitoba where 5 to 20cm of snow can be expected. This storm will be much further north than that of monday's where Norway House frecived 70cm of snow.
 
We will have a nice breeze out of the south for the day ahead with most temperatures climbing up towards the freezing mark, though a few places could be a tad cooler or warmer depending on local factors. Maximum temperatures should be reached by evening hours. As the warm front approaches the Western parts of the province by early afternoon, it looks like a band of rain/freezing rain will form in those regions and start progressing eastwards into the Red River Valley by mid to late afternoon, then Eastern Manitoba by evening. Affecting Winnipeg and the rest of the RRV during supper hours, though it should exit the eastern portions of the province by mid evening as it moves into NWOntario. Expect around 1 to 4mm of freezing rain in parts tonight, for freezing rain that is quite significant and it will result in very icy conditions. So most roads may end up turning into skating rinks, as a result drivers are warned to be cautious and drive carefully in these conditions. As for warnings, Environment Canada has already issued a freezing rain warning for much of Southern Manitoba including the Winnipeg area, though areas in the extreme SW are not included in the warning region.

Skies will remain cloudy overnight before a weak cold front moves through the region by morning, leaving behind sunny skies and temperatures cooling to near -10C by evening. Northwest winds will be in place for the morning at around 30km/h to 40km/h, before it will settle down in the afternoon. Another arctic area of high pressure will settle in for tomorrow night keeping our temperatures down to the minus 20's at worst, with not much in the way of warming for Friday with highs only reaching the minus teens.

Temperatures will level off for the weekend with highs closer to the minus single digits, and -10C at the coldest for Saturday and Sunday. A weak storm track will also be present for the weekend and next week, giving us plenty of oppurtunties for seeing light to heavy snowfall. More information on the way Friday, with details of our weekend and beyond!

Freezing Rain For Parts Of Southern Manitoba Tonight!

A low pressure system will be moving across southern Manitoba tonight with a warm front draped across the interlake regions allowing for warm air to be ushered in from the South.



06Z GFA showing freezing rain in red for the overnight period, in areas of Southwest Manitoba.

Current Foxwarren Radar Image at 11:15pm CST
with frz rain

Temperatures will be climbing towards the freezing mark tonight especially in areas along the American Border. The milder weather however has already introduced freezing rain and/or ice pellets into Southwest Manitoba, and that will continue overnight as the low pressure system moves into the region from Saskatchewan. The area of freezing rain is expected to move east and northeast as the night moves on, affecting regions mainly north and west of Winnipeg. As a result of the conditions Freezing Rain Warnings are in Effect for Southwest and Central Manitoba. What about the rest of Southern Manitoba? Areas of the Red River Valley in and around Winnipeg, and points East will see a chance of getting freezing rain as it advances Eastwards, although greater probability exists further West and into the interlakes. The system is expected to move out by tomorrow morning leaving behind remaining freezing drizzle then mainly overcast skies by afternoon, temperaturewise will be sitting in the minus single digits as a cool NW flow will be in place.

Make sure you drive carefully when out on the highway's throughout the weekend, I don't like hearing about injured drivers in these kinds of weather conditions. So take it easy and keep yourself and others on the road safe!

Part 2/2: Snowstorm Photo Gallery

Heavy snow on Portage Avenue with
poor visibilty making for difficult driving.

A look at the Snowfall up in Mafeking
they recieved 65cm of the white stuff,
that is insane! 
Who wants to shovel all of that?
I will! Just kidding...

Trucks lined up along the highway near
Headingly, waiting for the transcanada to
open up after the storm.

Last but not least, a great shot of the
snow that was leftover from the storm
in front of my
place in, St.James Winnipeg.
 

Forecasted snowfall from last weeks snowstorm via  
TheWeatherNetwork.



Snowfall accumulated throughout the day on Saturday
in Portage La Prairie.  Courtesy of Tara-Marie Hall TWN.

View of the snowfalling along highway 1 W/E near Portage
La Prairie on Saturday, I can imagine now how bad the higways
must have been when they closed the highway that's for sure.

 

Poor visibility along the transcanasda highway on Saturday
shrouding vehicles in snow and blowing snow.

Traffic camera at the time of the heavysnowfall at 10pm
 in Winnipeg as used in my previous post. 



Snow falling quite heavy in Winnipeg at 10pm on Nov 10th,
rates again of 5cm/hr. Courtesy of Anja Just Anja TWN.
 

Part 1/2: A Look Back At The Storm That Delivered A Winter Wallop To Southern Manitoba (Part 2 Soon To Follow!)

A view of the Pembina-Bishop Grandin Blvd Camera at 10pm on November 10th when visibilty was poor and snowfall rates of 5cm/hr were reported. Via Rob's Blog

Winter arrived with a vengeance Saturday as a well advertised winter storm brought widespread snow across much of southern Manitoba Saturday into Saturday night. The colorado low storm system which tracked across Northern Minnesota Saturday night, brought two waves of snow... one that began in the early morning hours Saturday and moved into the interlake areas, and another heavier burst of snow Saturday evening and overnight that brought very heavy snowfall rates up to 5cm/hr at times across the Red River Valley including Winnipeg. When the snowfall settled down Sunday morning, it left impressive snowfall totals over Southern Manitoba, transitioning what was a bare snowfree landscape Friday into a beauty of a winter landscape. All of this happened within 36 hours...


Some storm snowfall totals reported as of Sunday morning Nov 11th.. (Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

Mafeking ................. 65 cm (Highway 10 between Swan River and The Pas)
Ashern ...................... 40-60 cm
Hodgson ................... 40 cm
Swan River ............... 40 cm
St Alphonse .............. 40 cm
Portage La Prairie ..... 37 cm
Dauphin .................... 33 cm
Baldur ....................... 33 cm
Holland ..................... 32 cm
Belmont .................... 32 cm
Gilbert Plains ............. 25-35 cm
Roblin ....................... 24 cm
St.James Winnipeg (My site)....23cm
Winnipeg ................. 22 cm (greatest 24 hr snowfall since Dec 2006)
St Claude ................. 22 cm
Marquette ................. 21 cm
Brandon .................... 20 cm
Neepawa .................. 20 cm
Woodlands ............... 20 cm
Morden .................... 14 cm
Carman .................... 12 cm
Pinawa ...................... 11 cm
Steinbach ................. 10 cm
Emerson .................... 10 cm

This scene was a lot like other places in Southern Manitoba during the day Sunday, after the winter storm. Picture from Grand Rapids,MB



Winnipeg's snowfall of 22 cm was the city's greatest 24 hr snowfall since Dec 30-31 2006 when 32 cm fell. Heaviest snowfall with this storm was in a wide area from the Riding Mountains and Duck Mountains through the interlake, as well as a narrower band from the Western Red River Valley through Portage la Prairie into the central interlakes thanks to some slow moving heavy snows that set up Saturday evening. Neighbouring areas of eastern Saskatchewan were also hit hard with 30 to 45cm reported from Regina to Yorkton. There was much less snowfall south and east of Winnipeg especially towards the Ontario border where precipitation fell as a mix of freezing rain and light snow during Saturday.


Trucks line up in Headingley MB
waiting for the TransCanada to open (via Rob's Blog)



The storm was bad enough to force the closure of the TransCanada highway Saturday night between Headinglyand Brandon due to the extreme winter conditions that were in place. The highway reopened on Sunday Evening.  

24 hr Radar accumulation summaries to 9 am Sunday morning




The Foxwarren Radar imagery of rainfall totals in mm to 9am Sunday. Note the data on the radar does not accurately reflect the snowfall totals we recieved. Please match your region to the corresponding legend in mm and convert to cm using Google Calculator. 

The Woodlands Radar imagery of rainfall totals in mm to 9am Sunday. Note the data on the radar does not accurately reflect the snowfall totals we recieved. Please match your region to the corresponding legend in mm and convert to cm using Google Calculator.



Update On Our Winter Storm Situation



The Latest look at where the snow will
be falling at 6pm tonight. **/***
means heavy snow in hatched area.

Snow has spread over Southern Manitoba this morning with the heaviest snow occuring through western Manitoba and the interlake regions. As of 9am about 15cm of snow has fallen through the Roblin and Dauphin regions, with 8cm in Brandon 5cm in Portage and 2 to 3cm in Winnipeg. Snowfall amounts off to a dusting have been reported south and east of Winnipeg where precipitation is mixed with freezing rain and or ice pellets. Winnipeg will be on the edge of heavier snow to the west and north, and there will likely be light snow off to our south and east. 



Snow area for tonight at midnight
**/*** means heavy snow in hatched
area. 

As for the weather in Winnipeg today we will have periods of light snow along with the likelihood of heavier bursts from time to time. In general, about 5 to 10cm of snow is expected in Winnipeg today with lighter amounts to our south and east of about 2 to 5cm, and higher amounts likely to our west and north of 10 to 20cm. For the night tonight the colorado low will be tracking into northwestern Minnesota and NW Ontario, bringing another impulse of heavier precipitation over Southern Manitoba. This could bring another 10 to 20cm of snow into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight into Sunday afternoon before the snowfall simmers down. So we will likely be contending with this storm system for another 24 to 36 hours yet.

On average Winnipeg could see 15 to 30cm of snow from this system with 35cm being the worst, and 17cm being minor. The heaviest snowfall will once again occur over Western Manitoba and the interlakes where 30 to 40cm is possible by Sunday Evening.

Thank you once again to Rob's Blog for the information, was a great help!

Major Winter Storm System Takes Aim At Southern Manitoba (Thank You to Rob's Blog For The Information On The Storm System!)

The well advertised winter storm that we have been following the past week is now in the province, snow started this afternoon in Western Manitoba and will be continuing to spread eastwards into the rest of Southern Manitoba through this evening and overnight, with very heavy snow expected over the weekend. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of southern Manitoba including Dauphin, Brandon, Winnipeg and the RRV. This means there will likely be general snowfall amounts of 2 to 35cm across the area by Sunday Evening, with 40cm+ snowfall over portions of Western Manitoba and some places in the Red River Valley maybe even in Winnipeg. Further eastwards the storm will likely bring a band of freezing rain or ice pellets to the Ontario/Manitoba border overnight and Saturday, before changing to all snow Saturday night into Sunday.

 

In Winnipeg, light snow will develop this evening, becoming steadier and heavier after midnight with 5cm possible by Saturday Morning. Snow will be in place all day Saturday with 10 to 20cm likely by evening along with northeast winds gusting to 50 km/h at times. Additional snow is expected Saturday night into Sunday Evening before the storm gradually moves out Sunday night with snowfall totals of 25 to 35cm or higher across the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg.



Snowfall totals for Southern Manitoba based on GFS
Model Red is 40 to 50cm of snow, orange 30 to 40cm. 

Snowfall totals for Southern Manitoba based on NAM
Model. Orange is 30 to 40cm.

 

 

Regardless of the total snowfall we get, residents should be prepared for a long lasting period of snowy weather over southern MB beginning tonight, lasting through Saturday and Saturday into Sunday morning and tapering off later Sunday. Road conditions will crumple as the storm progresses, especially Saturday and Saturday night when the bulk of the snow is expected across southern MB. Be prepared for much slower travel times and possible road closures. I wouldn't be surprised if highway 75 to the USA and highway 1 TransCanada to Saskatchewan were to be closed tomorrow. Northerly winds of 30 to 50 km/h will accompany the storm with reduced visibilities at times in snow and blowing snow. Improving conditions are expected later Sunday as the storm moves off. Please note that this storm will also be affecting North Dakota, NW Minnesota and NW Ontario, keep in mind if you have travel plans in those places this weekend. For Manitoba Road Reports, Conditions, and Closures visit..... TheWeatherNetwork Interactive Road Conditions Map and Manitoba Government Road Condition Reports and Maps

WunderMap Interactive Radar

Intellicast Interactive Radar (Ignore
Writing if you can)

Track The Storm! Track the storm using Intellicast Interactive Weather Radar (Weather Active Map) using up to the minute radar data, zoomable clickable map, along with some great options for overlays. Try out KTIV Interactive Radar, Wundermap, and TheWeatherNetwork Radar as well. They are all great maps and I suggest these ones based on my personal findings over the timeframe I have used them.

Stormy Saturday On Tap, But How Much Snow Are We Really Going To Get?

You may end up seeing scenes like this on the weekend, not pretty. Agree?

As was said over the past couple of days there would be a chance for a snowstorm, and now its looking more likely that we will get a significant snowfall which will impact Southern Manitoba through the weekend. This will be the seasons first widespread snowfall for the Red River Valley and much of Southern Manitoba. As a result the trustworthy Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg (aka Environment Canada) issued a Snowfall Warning for much of Southern Manitoba including Winnipeg. They are highlighting the potential of 15 to 25cm and 30+ cm of snow Friday into Sunday for most places. According to Rob Author of Rob's Blog "there remains some uncertainty about how much snow will fall in any one location (including Winnipeg), there are a few things that are looking more likely about this impending snowfall event..

 Storm track: Low will be tracking towards Duluth (see image above). That increases odds of heavier snow over SE MB and less snow towards the SK border
- Precip Phase: Will be an all snow event. With the above storm track, likelihood of mixed precipitation (freezing rain/ice pellets) is reduced over much of southern MB
- Timing: Snow will be spreading in from the southwest late Friday, persisting through Saturday and Saturday night, then gradually pulling off Sunday. Snow expected to develop in Winnipeg Friday night (midnight or pre-dawn hours Saturday)` 





GEM-GLB Predicting 5 to 15cm of Snowfall (less likely)

The question that everyone wants to know is How much we are going to get in Winnipeg. Models have almost come to an agreement and the information I have been getting is pointing towards a total snowfall amount of 25cm from Friday Night into Sunday for Winnipeg. Model estimates for Winnipeg are hinting at a minimum of 12cm to a maximum of 32cm, overall I would discount the smallest amounts considering the model on the lower end is going towards a more non colorado type low, whereas the other models agree on a colorado low which is the case for the storm. Overall amounts will once again be in the 15 to 25cm range for Winnipeg and likely higher if we get into several heavy snowbands, which could get our totals up past the 30cm mark. As for the rest of southern Manitoba there will be the potential for a wide swath of 15 to 25cm with locally 30+cm over areas East of riding Mountain National Park and near Turtle Mountain regions that include Killarney, Boissevain and Deloraine. There could also be a few locales in regions of Western Manitoba, Red River Valley Winnipeg and Eastern Manitoba that might see over 25 or 30cm of snow when under heavy moisture.







NAM model predicting 15cm green to 35cm in red.
(More Likely)



Regardless of the total amount that falls, people should be prepared for a period of snowy weather over Southern parts of Manitoba beginning Friday night into Saturday and tapering off Sunday. Road and highway conditions will deteroiate as the storm progresses, especially Saturday when most of the snow is expected over Southern Manitoba. Be prepared for much slower travel times and possible road closures. Northerly winds of 30 to 50 kmh or more will accompany the storm with reduced and low visibility at times in snow and blowing snow. Improving and better conditions are expected Sunday as the storm moves off. Please note that this storm will also be affecting North Dakota, NW Minnesota and NW Ontario, keep in mind if you have travel plans in those places this weekend.

Winters Wrath Looms

The weather for the week ahead is looking fairly peaceful and uneventful, although things could have a different outcome at the end of the week as models point towards a major winterstorm/snowstorm for the majority of southern Manitoba for our weekend.


A significant storm system may rock southern Manitoba for the weekend, all put together by the area of low pressure you see on the map over NW Ontario and NW Minnesota.

Tonight's weather should be fairly seasonal with overnight lows dipping past zero degrees and should stick in the minus single digits before warming by the morning hours. There will not be a lot to contend with tonight in terms of weather, we will see rain at times that will mix with snow through our late evening hours and after midnight. Tapering off around 2 to 3am. Cloudy skies will persist through the day on Tuesday keeping our temperatures in the single digits, with a changeover to northwesterly winds as opposed to Southerly winds. Wednesday will offer less cloud cover throughout a small part of the day giving temperatures a small time frame to warm up, but not by much (0 to 4C at most) still quite seasonal for this time of year. If there isn't that much sun throughout the day Wednesday then you can be sure cloud cover will hover over for the day.


The major attention for many this week will be the focus on the potential for a significant low pressure system this weekend. Weather Models including the (GFS, ECMWF, NAM, GGEM) are currently indicating that a potent Colorado low will impact southern Manitoba next weekend, with the potential for severe (heavy) snowfall, freezing rain and or strong winds. At this point it is hard to predict how exactly this system will affect us, other than to mention that it could cause various disruptions. Just as it is impossible to know the exact impacts of this storm this far in the future, it is also not possible to know for sure that this storm will impact us at all. Based on latest model runs and some analysing I have done, there is a reasonable chance that the storm may impact Southern Manitoba given the fact how some of the models have remained consistent on their output for the event. Then again we will not be confident for a few more days until models agree on a solution. In the meantime we all have some interesting weather to talk about until the weekend!

Feel Free to follow updates on Rob's Blog (Weather Information) and Spotwx (to view and see what models agree on) Updates will be given in the comments section of this post as well, when I have the time.


Happy Halloween! The seasonal weather continues

The Seasonal weather continues for many, as temperatures climb into the low to mid single digits, with some to little amounts of precipitation anticipated from now into the weekend. The sun may also peak out for a couple of hours per day or more, take advantage of it we may end up getting snow soon.


Not much clearing will take place for the trick or treaters this evening, or even later on overnight. Stubborn
cloudcover continues to filter in from inbetween the interlakes with the NW flow from the high
pressure system in Saskatchewan. There might be the odd chance for a few
showers or possibly flurries as it cools off overnight.

 
 Well Happy Halloween everyone! It is going to be such an amazing night for lots of people heading out trick or treating, or going out for a fun time. I hate to be the bear of bad news though, the night ahead isn't looking so great for trick or treaters. There will be off and on drizzle/showers with flurries occurring later on, however the cloudcover will stay put making for a spooky and gloomy night. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few peeks of sun or clear sky in western Manitoba as the escarpment chops up the NW flow aloft. Temperatures however will be cool for the treaters, likely sitting in the low single digits in the RedRiverValley and east Manitoba. There might be a few locales in western Manitoba that could dip near the freezing mark. Temperatures mentioned above will cool into the night, though it won't get any colder than -6C in any location. Make sure you dress for the weather tonight, to prevent any minor frostbite.

Tomorrow's weather will be a different story than compared to today's we won't be dealing with much in the way of rain, however cloudcover will continue to stick around limiting our temperatures to near zero or slightly above the freezing mark into the low single digits. A northwest wind will be in place through the period also helping limit daytime highs. High temperatures will be below or near the normal.

Friday's weather will be a completley different story as high temperatures remain in the minus single digits, only getting as warm as near zero in places. The sun will be out though, that will be a highlight of the day, only the fact that it will be accompanied by a cool northwest wind. Temperatures should remain below the normal through the day Friday.

Here is the better news for all, things start warming up as we head through the weekend and into the start of the week. It might be another blast of pacific air coming in during this time frame, likely giving temperatures a boost to near 10+C for the first time in weeks. I am not sure how things will pan out in the long run, but my gut feeling is that we may end up seeing snow fly before the end of November. We will end up getting it eventually, that is why I am keeping an eye on models for any sort of storm system.

Until then enjoy the fall weather! And Happy Halloween!


 

Great week of slightly above weather in store, though chilly for halloween night!

We'll see warm temperatures for the rest of the first half of the week, perhaps we may even see some above normal temperatures.

Some light rain showers might make an appearence over the day Tuesday as a weak frontal wave passes through. I wouldn't rule out a chance for snow in the morning tomorrow for some places, especially in the interlake.

While sandy affects the eastern coast the weather in all of southern manitoba will be very calm and  typical for October standards. Today temperatures reached into the mid to high single digits which is close to or slightly above the normal for this time of year. Precipitation also was seen in a few places today, especially along the USA border near Emerson where light snow was detected on radar at 8am. Tonight there will be the potential for a few places in Western Manitoba to recieve rain and possible freezing rain, nothing significant though. Tomorrow will be pretty much the same story as temperatures are once again expected to climb into the mid to high single digits, there might also be the potential for some scattered showers throughout the day as another small frontal wave passes through the region.

As for halloween Wednesday, it will be a chilly day as cool northwesterly winds flow out of a surface ridge in areas of Saskatchewan. Temperatures throughout the day will be slightly above zero , however they will drop near to or slightly below zero for the trick or treating hours. So make sure your kids bundle up to make sure they stay warm, while they are outside.

Conditions through late week will remain seasonable for this time of year, with daytime highs hovering in the low to mid single digits or slightly above or below 5C. No major shifts in our weather pattern is expected for the next couple of weeks.

Crazy Week of Weather Ahead!

Another period of active weather is in store for our week ahead, as several systems cascade through our region bringing multiple chances for precipitation. The question remains will it be rain or snow? 


A look at snowfall amounts in (inches) with the projected StormSystem that could affect the great lakes
on Thursday and Friday. Phew! Not us though I'm hoping. Picture Via Joe Renken‏@TriStatesWx. 

The weather for our week will be fair with temperatures cooling to the low single digits for the night ahead, though a few places could reach the freezing mark. A low pressure system (cyclone) will affect the region tonight and through the day tomorrow, bringing rain to the region within the next few hours persisting through the day tomorrow. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms (a rarity in October) tomorrow afternoon/evening within the rain as moisture is drawn up from the south ahead of the system. The main threat region for thunderstorms will be in the Red River Valley along a line from Warren through Winnipeg south to Altona towards the Ontario Border, and north to Victoria Beach and Powerview. Pretty much all of Eastern Manitoba and half of the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg up into the interlakes. If thunderstorms don't occur there will likely be showers at times that could be heavy. As for temperatures on Tuesday with the rain and thunderstorms they will be fairly similar to the day we had today likely sitting in the high single digits to low teens. Once everything clears out we will recieve rainfall amounts up to the 5 and 15mm range with higher amounts in thunderstorms, which always is a given. 

As our weather system departs on the day Wednesday we will be left with cooler weather as cold air sweeps in from the West making for a chilly start to our second half of the week. Temperatures for Wednesday will be stuck in the mid single digits with a gusty westerly wind.


There has been a lot of chatter over Twitter and the web about our weather this week. Some weather models have been suggesting that portions of Southern Manitoba could be impacted by a colorado low pressure system on Thursday and Friday. However other models have come to the conlclusion of little nothing in terms of precipitation during Thursday and Friday. Conclusions? It remains unlikely that Southern Manitoba will be recieving a major blizzard at the end of the week. Most models show a moderate strength (fairly deep) low pressure system sliding past us through Minnesota and Northwest Ontario heading into Illinois and Michigan. Overall we may see flurries or some rainshowers but we won't be seeing a full fledged winter storm, it will be too far away for us to recieve it's main impacts.

At this time it appears we won't be seeing a significant amount of snow, though always expect the unexpected in mother nature. You may never know what comes out of the box.

Another Rainy Past Couple Of Days For Many, Though Some Improving Weather For the Weekend Ahead

A fairly strong low pressure system over Northern Minnesota brought a soaking rain over Southern Manitoba Wednesday into today , with amounts of 15 to 40mm recorded over the past 36 hours. Amounts were the heaviest over the Western Red River Valley with amounts of 24mm to 37mm recorded from Woodlands west to Portage north to St.Rose Du Lac and southeast through Morden and Winkler including regions of Manitou and Pilot Mound. Lesser amounts fell in western Manitoba with only 15 to 20mm of rain, and 15mm in Winnipeg.

A look at precipitation amounts for Manitoba from the day today (October 18, 2012)
Data from Manitoba Conservation

The rain we experienced brought us some much needed moisture to southern Manitoba, after such a dry September where Winnipeg only experienced 4mm all month. Rainfall data for CYWG (Winnipeg) from Rob's Blog quotes that "Rainfall this month is now up to 36 mm at the airport as of this morning, and 50 mm at the Forks". This month is now the first month since May where we recieved above normal precipitation, October average is 36mm for Winnipeg. More showers or drizzle will be affecting southern Manitoba throughout the night tonight, along with northerly winds gusting at times to about 80 km/h. Showers or drizzle should end by tomorrow morning as moisture transport starts moving out of the area, however cloudcover will continue to stick around for the day Friday. There could be a few places in Western Manitoba that could see the sun peaking out, as cloudcover may not be as extensive there as in the Red River Valley.

Nicer weather conditions will return for the weekend as things become drier, however long range forecast models and discussions from various sources are hinting at a potential for a potent storm system moving across North Dakota and affecting Southern Manitoba, by Wednesday into the end of the week next week. Rain or Thunderstorms could be possible with the start of the system, however rain and snow would likely become a factor as it moves East. Thunderstorms would only be possible if we get into the warm sector of the system, it would be unlikely if it bypasses the region leaving us with rain and snow.  Overall expect a wet and unsettled second half of the week next week. Make sure you stay tuned to updates on the upcoming storm system, to find out how it evolves over the time period.

Update: The Weather for part of the weekend is not looking like it will be as nice as first thought, the night Saturday through Sunday is looking unsettled as an area of low pressure moves through the region from Saskatchewan. Though Saturday is looking very warm and dry with temperatures in the teens. The area of low pressure for the night Saturday and for the day Sunday will likely produce an area of showers and or rain for most in Southern Manitoba, accumulations will likely be in the low range and likely be from 5mm in Virden to 6mm in Whitemouth. However there could be a larger variation in amounts due to different weather in different regions, likely from the 5 to 10mm range. This system will be less powerful compared to next week's system which could bring us the first significant precipitation in quite a while. Thing's should clear up for the start of the week before thing's change drastically for the second half of the week. Stay Tuned for more information on Saturday Night's and Sunday's system.

Last Day Of Nice Weather Before A Changeover To Wetter And Cooler Conditions

You will have one last chance to enjoy the nice weather on Tuesday as Normal to above normal temperatures return to southern Manitoba, before a dreaded changeover to clouds and some fairly heavy rains for Wednesday as a powerful low pressure system slides through our region.

A look at this powerful low pressure system that will travel through our area and bring rain,clouds along with cooler weather

behind it.

Lets have a look at the lighter side of things "warmer weather"! Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with most temperatures rising into the mid to high teens and possibly some places could hit 20C since mid September. This will allow us to get quite above the normal, and allow us to enjoy some beautiful fall weather.

That will change however as clouds increase tomorrow tonight ahead of showers and rain which will be ongoing tomorrow night as the cold front passes through. The rest of the low pressure system will slide out of our region on Wednesday pulling winds out of the West and Northwest limiting our daytime highs to the high single digits or near the ten degree mark.

You will also notice a difference in our temperatures on Thursday as the full impacts of the low pressure system from Tuesday & Wednesday start taking shape. We will be left with temperatures only in the mid single digits if not cooler in some places in Dauphin as temperatures there struggle to hit 5C. Overall Expect temperatures in the low to mid single digits throughout Thursday.

As for the weekend conditions may be unsettled as some other possible low pressure systems travel through our area, I'm not sure how much we will be impacted during this timeframe as models are having a hard time agreeing.

Till Then, get out there and enjoy the nice weather!

 

 



Warmer Weather For The Next Several Days Ahead ( Also Happy 100th Post!)

The Weather Will look a lot like this
for the weekend, beautiful!

After an extended period of below normal temperatures and cloudy conditions, the weather has made a change for the better. Temperatures will finally be warming into the teens (double digits) after being stuck in a single digit rampage since early October in Southern Manitoba and (October 3rd in Winnipeg according to Rob). The changeover to milder weather was and will continue to be signalled by the strong winds pushing in from the south, at 60 to 70 km/h with associated gusts. The winds will settle down as we head towards the late evening hours for those wondering.

Things will become much milder for the weekend, as temperatures climb into the low to mid teens along with lighter winds and fair weather. Normal highs this time of year should be in the mid to low teens and near 10C, with overnight lows generally near 0C or below the freezing mark. Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the first half of next week, before a changeover to colder weather from the middle to second half of next week.

Get Out There and enjoy this nice weather, because it might be the last warmspell of the season.

(By the way this post is a celebration of the 100th update on this blog's history. Happy 100th!)

New Features Added To The Blog

Over The past couple of weeks there have been some upgrades and modifications to the blog giving users the access to more information throughout. I have added a new twitter gadget that allows you view photos, video and media that I may attach to my tweets, it also gives you the chance to load more of of my tweets (up to a max of 30 at the most). The new twitter gadget is in sharp contrast to the old one, where you were only able to view 4 tweets at a time and it did not have the features that the new one now has. That always made it a hassle for those who had to click on every link that came with my tweets, oh the way twitter has changed over the years.

 For Those running with your iphones, ipads, notebooks and blackberries on the go, you now can recieve blog updates via email and have the capability to view my webpage on mobile internet. For Email updates all you have to do is type in your email address in the box below follow by email, you are then prompted to type in a cachephrase afterwards and then tada your done and ready to pick up updates. For accessing my website via mobile its the same thing you would do when you go online using a PC, Mac or Laptop.

As featured in my last post, there will be blog posts that will contain a photo gallery after each storm event in the province. They will be offered throughout the year and they will come from various sources online. As for future galleries, I might be able to get my hands on a great blogger template that will be compatable for photo galleries making for a more professional look overall.

Overall there are so many great features that are available on my blog including all weather widgets, archives, etc. and there will be many more to come as blogger expands its horizons for web based widgets. I might start using RSS feeds in several years with weather maps and radars to allow for frequently updated content, such as what major companies have been using on their webpages all along.

Go ahead, take a look and see what great features my blog has to offer including the neverending weather links!

Picture Gallery: Early Season Snowstorm Slams Southeastern Manitoba Head On



Tree Damage in Vita, Manitoba due to heavy snowfall and
wind. I honestly feel bad for this guy, must be a wack
of money for him/her to pay off the damage.

Snowy Roads Along Hwy 1 East, Just Near
falcon lake




 Manitoba Hydro Crews Working to

Get Power BackUp with

downed power lines along

Hwy 12 North Just South

Of Highway 44 near Beausejour.

Trees Bent Over from the weight of the snow
said to be shot somewhere in SouthEast
Manitoba. Look at how 
some trees could not withstand the
weight of the snow.

Tree Damage in Falcon Lake,
as a result from
the heavy snow and strong winds. 

 

Snow Weighing Down Trees After Storm
In Bissett, Manitoba

 Look at all of that snow! 30cm of the white stuff after the storm
in Southeast Manitoba.

I Feel Bad for that persons deck, and swimming pool
bet they won't be using it for a while. Picture taken
North Of Ste.Anne, where 10cm of snow fell.