Freezing Rain For Parts Of Southern Manitoba Tonight!

A low pressure system will be moving across southern Manitoba tonight with a warm front draped across the interlake regions allowing for warm air to be ushered in from the South.



06Z GFA showing freezing rain in red for the overnight period, in areas of Southwest Manitoba.

Current Foxwarren Radar Image at 11:15pm CST
with frz rain

Temperatures will be climbing towards the freezing mark tonight especially in areas along the American Border. The milder weather however has already introduced freezing rain and/or ice pellets into Southwest Manitoba, and that will continue overnight as the low pressure system moves into the region from Saskatchewan. The area of freezing rain is expected to move east and northeast as the night moves on, affecting regions mainly north and west of Winnipeg. As a result of the conditions Freezing Rain Warnings are in Effect for Southwest and Central Manitoba. What about the rest of Southern Manitoba? Areas of the Red River Valley in and around Winnipeg, and points East will see a chance of getting freezing rain as it advances Eastwards, although greater probability exists further West and into the interlakes. The system is expected to move out by tomorrow morning leaving behind remaining freezing drizzle then mainly overcast skies by afternoon, temperaturewise will be sitting in the minus single digits as a cool NW flow will be in place.

Make sure you drive carefully when out on the highway's throughout the weekend, I don't like hearing about injured drivers in these kinds of weather conditions. So take it easy and keep yourself and others on the road safe!

Part 2/2: Snowstorm Photo Gallery

Heavy snow on Portage Avenue with
poor visibilty making for difficult driving.

A look at the Snowfall up in Mafeking
they recieved 65cm of the white stuff,
that is insane! 
Who wants to shovel all of that?
I will! Just kidding...

Trucks lined up along the highway near
Headingly, waiting for the transcanada to
open up after the storm.

Last but not least, a great shot of the
snow that was leftover from the storm
in front of my
place in, St.James Winnipeg.
 

Forecasted snowfall from last weeks snowstorm via  
TheWeatherNetwork.



Snowfall accumulated throughout the day on Saturday
in Portage La Prairie.  Courtesy of Tara-Marie Hall TWN.

View of the snowfalling along highway 1 W/E near Portage
La Prairie on Saturday, I can imagine now how bad the higways
must have been when they closed the highway that's for sure.

 

Poor visibility along the transcanasda highway on Saturday
shrouding vehicles in snow and blowing snow.

Traffic camera at the time of the heavysnowfall at 10pm
 in Winnipeg as used in my previous post. 



Snow falling quite heavy in Winnipeg at 10pm on Nov 10th,
rates again of 5cm/hr. Courtesy of Anja Just Anja TWN.
 

Part 1/2: A Look Back At The Storm That Delivered A Winter Wallop To Southern Manitoba (Part 2 Soon To Follow!)

A view of the Pembina-Bishop Grandin Blvd Camera at 10pm on November 10th when visibilty was poor and snowfall rates of 5cm/hr were reported. Via Rob's Blog

Winter arrived with a vengeance Saturday as a well advertised winter storm brought widespread snow across much of southern Manitoba Saturday into Saturday night. The colorado low storm system which tracked across Northern Minnesota Saturday night, brought two waves of snow... one that began in the early morning hours Saturday and moved into the interlake areas, and another heavier burst of snow Saturday evening and overnight that brought very heavy snowfall rates up to 5cm/hr at times across the Red River Valley including Winnipeg. When the snowfall settled down Sunday morning, it left impressive snowfall totals over Southern Manitoba, transitioning what was a bare snowfree landscape Friday into a beauty of a winter landscape. All of this happened within 36 hours...


Some storm snowfall totals reported as of Sunday morning Nov 11th.. (Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

Mafeking ................. 65 cm (Highway 10 between Swan River and The Pas)
Ashern ...................... 40-60 cm
Hodgson ................... 40 cm
Swan River ............... 40 cm
St Alphonse .............. 40 cm
Portage La Prairie ..... 37 cm
Dauphin .................... 33 cm
Baldur ....................... 33 cm
Holland ..................... 32 cm
Belmont .................... 32 cm
Gilbert Plains ............. 25-35 cm
Roblin ....................... 24 cm
St.James Winnipeg (My site)....23cm
Winnipeg ................. 22 cm (greatest 24 hr snowfall since Dec 2006)
St Claude ................. 22 cm
Marquette ................. 21 cm
Brandon .................... 20 cm
Neepawa .................. 20 cm
Woodlands ............... 20 cm
Morden .................... 14 cm
Carman .................... 12 cm
Pinawa ...................... 11 cm
Steinbach ................. 10 cm
Emerson .................... 10 cm

This scene was a lot like other places in Southern Manitoba during the day Sunday, after the winter storm. Picture from Grand Rapids,MB



Winnipeg's snowfall of 22 cm was the city's greatest 24 hr snowfall since Dec 30-31 2006 when 32 cm fell. Heaviest snowfall with this storm was in a wide area from the Riding Mountains and Duck Mountains through the interlake, as well as a narrower band from the Western Red River Valley through Portage la Prairie into the central interlakes thanks to some slow moving heavy snows that set up Saturday evening. Neighbouring areas of eastern Saskatchewan were also hit hard with 30 to 45cm reported from Regina to Yorkton. There was much less snowfall south and east of Winnipeg especially towards the Ontario border where precipitation fell as a mix of freezing rain and light snow during Saturday.


Trucks line up in Headingley MB
waiting for the TransCanada to open (via Rob's Blog)



The storm was bad enough to force the closure of the TransCanada highway Saturday night between Headinglyand Brandon due to the extreme winter conditions that were in place. The highway reopened on Sunday Evening.  

24 hr Radar accumulation summaries to 9 am Sunday morning




The Foxwarren Radar imagery of rainfall totals in mm to 9am Sunday. Note the data on the radar does not accurately reflect the snowfall totals we recieved. Please match your region to the corresponding legend in mm and convert to cm using Google Calculator. 

The Woodlands Radar imagery of rainfall totals in mm to 9am Sunday. Note the data on the radar does not accurately reflect the snowfall totals we recieved. Please match your region to the corresponding legend in mm and convert to cm using Google Calculator.



Update On Our Winter Storm Situation



The Latest look at where the snow will
be falling at 6pm tonight. **/***
means heavy snow in hatched area.

Snow has spread over Southern Manitoba this morning with the heaviest snow occuring through western Manitoba and the interlake regions. As of 9am about 15cm of snow has fallen through the Roblin and Dauphin regions, with 8cm in Brandon 5cm in Portage and 2 to 3cm in Winnipeg. Snowfall amounts off to a dusting have been reported south and east of Winnipeg where precipitation is mixed with freezing rain and or ice pellets. Winnipeg will be on the edge of heavier snow to the west and north, and there will likely be light snow off to our south and east. 



Snow area for tonight at midnight
**/*** means heavy snow in hatched
area. 

As for the weather in Winnipeg today we will have periods of light snow along with the likelihood of heavier bursts from time to time. In general, about 5 to 10cm of snow is expected in Winnipeg today with lighter amounts to our south and east of about 2 to 5cm, and higher amounts likely to our west and north of 10 to 20cm. For the night tonight the colorado low will be tracking into northwestern Minnesota and NW Ontario, bringing another impulse of heavier precipitation over Southern Manitoba. This could bring another 10 to 20cm of snow into Winnipeg and the Red River Valley overnight into Sunday afternoon before the snowfall simmers down. So we will likely be contending with this storm system for another 24 to 36 hours yet.

On average Winnipeg could see 15 to 30cm of snow from this system with 35cm being the worst, and 17cm being minor. The heaviest snowfall will once again occur over Western Manitoba and the interlakes where 30 to 40cm is possible by Sunday Evening.

Thank you once again to Rob's Blog for the information, was a great help!

Major Winter Storm System Takes Aim At Southern Manitoba (Thank You to Rob's Blog For The Information On The Storm System!)

The well advertised winter storm that we have been following the past week is now in the province, snow started this afternoon in Western Manitoba and will be continuing to spread eastwards into the rest of Southern Manitoba through this evening and overnight, with very heavy snow expected over the weekend. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for much of southern Manitoba including Dauphin, Brandon, Winnipeg and the RRV. This means there will likely be general snowfall amounts of 2 to 35cm across the area by Sunday Evening, with 40cm+ snowfall over portions of Western Manitoba and some places in the Red River Valley maybe even in Winnipeg. Further eastwards the storm will likely bring a band of freezing rain or ice pellets to the Ontario/Manitoba border overnight and Saturday, before changing to all snow Saturday night into Sunday.

 

In Winnipeg, light snow will develop this evening, becoming steadier and heavier after midnight with 5cm possible by Saturday Morning. Snow will be in place all day Saturday with 10 to 20cm likely by evening along with northeast winds gusting to 50 km/h at times. Additional snow is expected Saturday night into Sunday Evening before the storm gradually moves out Sunday night with snowfall totals of 25 to 35cm or higher across the Red River Valley, including Winnipeg.



Snowfall totals for Southern Manitoba based on GFS
Model Red is 40 to 50cm of snow, orange 30 to 40cm. 

Snowfall totals for Southern Manitoba based on NAM
Model. Orange is 30 to 40cm.

 

 

Regardless of the total snowfall we get, residents should be prepared for a long lasting period of snowy weather over southern MB beginning tonight, lasting through Saturday and Saturday into Sunday morning and tapering off later Sunday. Road conditions will crumple as the storm progresses, especially Saturday and Saturday night when the bulk of the snow is expected across southern MB. Be prepared for much slower travel times and possible road closures. I wouldn't be surprised if highway 75 to the USA and highway 1 TransCanada to Saskatchewan were to be closed tomorrow. Northerly winds of 30 to 50 km/h will accompany the storm with reduced visibilities at times in snow and blowing snow. Improving conditions are expected later Sunday as the storm moves off. Please note that this storm will also be affecting North Dakota, NW Minnesota and NW Ontario, keep in mind if you have travel plans in those places this weekend. For Manitoba Road Reports, Conditions, and Closures visit..... TheWeatherNetwork Interactive Road Conditions Map and Manitoba Government Road Condition Reports and Maps

WunderMap Interactive Radar

Intellicast Interactive Radar (Ignore
Writing if you can)

Track The Storm! Track the storm using Intellicast Interactive Weather Radar (Weather Active Map) using up to the minute radar data, zoomable clickable map, along with some great options for overlays. Try out KTIV Interactive Radar, Wundermap, and TheWeatherNetwork Radar as well. They are all great maps and I suggest these ones based on my personal findings over the timeframe I have used them.

Stormy Saturday On Tap, But How Much Snow Are We Really Going To Get?

You may end up seeing scenes like this on the weekend, not pretty. Agree?

As was said over the past couple of days there would be a chance for a snowstorm, and now its looking more likely that we will get a significant snowfall which will impact Southern Manitoba through the weekend. This will be the seasons first widespread snowfall for the Red River Valley and much of Southern Manitoba. As a result the trustworthy Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg (aka Environment Canada) issued a Snowfall Warning for much of Southern Manitoba including Winnipeg. They are highlighting the potential of 15 to 25cm and 30+ cm of snow Friday into Sunday for most places. According to Rob Author of Rob's Blog "there remains some uncertainty about how much snow will fall in any one location (including Winnipeg), there are a few things that are looking more likely about this impending snowfall event..

 Storm track: Low will be tracking towards Duluth (see image above). That increases odds of heavier snow over SE MB and less snow towards the SK border
- Precip Phase: Will be an all snow event. With the above storm track, likelihood of mixed precipitation (freezing rain/ice pellets) is reduced over much of southern MB
- Timing: Snow will be spreading in from the southwest late Friday, persisting through Saturday and Saturday night, then gradually pulling off Sunday. Snow expected to develop in Winnipeg Friday night (midnight or pre-dawn hours Saturday)` 





GEM-GLB Predicting 5 to 15cm of Snowfall (less likely)

The question that everyone wants to know is How much we are going to get in Winnipeg. Models have almost come to an agreement and the information I have been getting is pointing towards a total snowfall amount of 25cm from Friday Night into Sunday for Winnipeg. Model estimates for Winnipeg are hinting at a minimum of 12cm to a maximum of 32cm, overall I would discount the smallest amounts considering the model on the lower end is going towards a more non colorado type low, whereas the other models agree on a colorado low which is the case for the storm. Overall amounts will once again be in the 15 to 25cm range for Winnipeg and likely higher if we get into several heavy snowbands, which could get our totals up past the 30cm mark. As for the rest of southern Manitoba there will be the potential for a wide swath of 15 to 25cm with locally 30+cm over areas East of riding Mountain National Park and near Turtle Mountain regions that include Killarney, Boissevain and Deloraine. There could also be a few locales in regions of Western Manitoba, Red River Valley Winnipeg and Eastern Manitoba that might see over 25 or 30cm of snow when under heavy moisture.







NAM model predicting 15cm green to 35cm in red.
(More Likely)



Regardless of the total amount that falls, people should be prepared for a period of snowy weather over Southern parts of Manitoba beginning Friday night into Saturday and tapering off Sunday. Road and highway conditions will deteroiate as the storm progresses, especially Saturday when most of the snow is expected over Southern Manitoba. Be prepared for much slower travel times and possible road closures. Northerly winds of 30 to 50 kmh or more will accompany the storm with reduced and low visibility at times in snow and blowing snow. Improving and better conditions are expected Sunday as the storm moves off. Please note that this storm will also be affecting North Dakota, NW Minnesota and NW Ontario, keep in mind if you have travel plans in those places this weekend.

Winters Wrath Looms

The weather for the week ahead is looking fairly peaceful and uneventful, although things could have a different outcome at the end of the week as models point towards a major winterstorm/snowstorm for the majority of southern Manitoba for our weekend.


A significant storm system may rock southern Manitoba for the weekend, all put together by the area of low pressure you see on the map over NW Ontario and NW Minnesota.

Tonight's weather should be fairly seasonal with overnight lows dipping past zero degrees and should stick in the minus single digits before warming by the morning hours. There will not be a lot to contend with tonight in terms of weather, we will see rain at times that will mix with snow through our late evening hours and after midnight. Tapering off around 2 to 3am. Cloudy skies will persist through the day on Tuesday keeping our temperatures in the single digits, with a changeover to northwesterly winds as opposed to Southerly winds. Wednesday will offer less cloud cover throughout a small part of the day giving temperatures a small time frame to warm up, but not by much (0 to 4C at most) still quite seasonal for this time of year. If there isn't that much sun throughout the day Wednesday then you can be sure cloud cover will hover over for the day.


The major attention for many this week will be the focus on the potential for a significant low pressure system this weekend. Weather Models including the (GFS, ECMWF, NAM, GGEM) are currently indicating that a potent Colorado low will impact southern Manitoba next weekend, with the potential for severe (heavy) snowfall, freezing rain and or strong winds. At this point it is hard to predict how exactly this system will affect us, other than to mention that it could cause various disruptions. Just as it is impossible to know the exact impacts of this storm this far in the future, it is also not possible to know for sure that this storm will impact us at all. Based on latest model runs and some analysing I have done, there is a reasonable chance that the storm may impact Southern Manitoba given the fact how some of the models have remained consistent on their output for the event. Then again we will not be confident for a few more days until models agree on a solution. In the meantime we all have some interesting weather to talk about until the weekend!

Feel Free to follow updates on Rob's Blog (Weather Information) and Spotwx (to view and see what models agree on) Updates will be given in the comments section of this post as well, when I have the time.