More storms possible this week

The next  few days will be a little unsettled and it could get interesting as a few shortwaves moves through our area, temperatures will be mild however.

Today a shortwave will be moving through Southern Manitoba, and will be the focus for severe thunderstorm development in the interlakes and central Manitoba. There already is a severe thunderstorm watch in place for the interlakes and central Manitoba and may be expanded southwards as the evening goes on. Dewpoints in the 15 to 20C range and temperatures in the mid 20's it will give way to Lifted indicies in the -5 to -7 range with MUCAPES from 500 to 1,500 J/kg there will be sufficent lift available. Coupled with Shear from 10 to 30 knots I suspect storm organization will be quite possible through the evening hours. Along with PWATS of >1 inch (40mm) likely. Put it altogether the trough should be enough to spark thunderstorms in the interlakes regions through the day and as it does storms will drift southeastwards through the late afternoon and evening hours, given the high MUCAPE expect hail to be a concern with toonie size hail and frequent lightning a possibility. Also with PWATS quite high I expect that there will be no doubt some flooding potential if storms stay over 1 area for a decent amount of time. Storms should clear by late evening before exiting the province by midnight or weakening. Daytime highs should be in the mid twenties with humidex values reaching the low to mid thirties.

Wednesday will even be a more interesting day, high temperatures in the mid to high 20's and humidex values in the mid thirties, and dewpoints from 15 to 20C combined with MUCAPES from 1,000 to 3,200 J/kg and Lifted indicies from -3 to -7 will fuel thunderstorm potential. Shear will be on te order of 20 to 45 knots (storm organization) as well with PWATS in the 35mm range (rainfall). Put that altogether with a cold front going through mid to late afternoon into evening, severe weather will be a distinct possibility (although scattered in nature) with large hail given the high CAPE values and potential for some strong wind gusts with shear enough to give storms some wind to work with. Dangerous Lightning and rainfall in excess of 25mm may be a concern as well. The storm threat will ease by late evening as the front passes through as drier air begins working in.

Drier and more stable weather expected for the end of the week into the weekend, before more storms are possible by the end of the weekend.