Severe Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday

Today is expected to be a busy day weatherwise and it will potentially be the most active that we have seen in a long time, a few tweaks to the risk area map I have moved the high risk area further north as the cold front will be affecting those areas more than I first thought and the high risk area is extended further east given forecasted radar imagery. Let's have a look at the graphics before we go into quick details....

Cold front going through later in the evening will trigger severe storms, some may be supercells. Put out by AWWS.

Supercell potential mid evening in southwest and western Manitoba by the WRF Model,
Bow echo and MCS possible overnight.

Thursday Thunderstorm Risk (red is severe thunderstorms) during the day put out by the RDPS Summer Model

Thursday night thunderstorm risk map put out by the RDPS Summer Model (Severe Weather is possible in Red, Near Severe in Orange).

 Nothing muc as changed in terms of what we are expecting, except the tornado risk has dissapeared completely for the Red River Valley overnight on Thursday into Friday. What I am expecting is that severe thunderstorms will develop in Eastern Saskatchewan late afternoon and drift into Western Manitoba by evening along and ahead of the cold front, discrete supercells will likely develop by evening posing a tornado risk with 100km/h winds, golf ball to baseball size hail, heavy rainfall and frequent dangerous lightning. Please Read Environment Canada's latest forecast discussion here: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWWG/focn45.chunk.html .Please stay aware of watches and warnings in your area, and take shelter when dangerous weather threatens. Follow all the info at my page: michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbwxcentral. Here are some Tornado safety precautions from http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/hzd/trnds-en.aspx and http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/hzd/trnds-drng-en.aspx  : 

Also safety tips from TheWeatherNetwork can be found here

"Warning signs of a potential tornado

Warning signs include:

• Severe thunderstorms, with frequent thunder and lightning
• An extremely dark sky, sometimes highlighted by green or yellow clouds
• A rumbling sound or a whistling sound.
• A funnel cloud at the rear base of a thundercloud, often behind a curtain of heavy rain or hail."

"If you are in a house

• Go to the basement or take shelter in a small interior ground floor room such as a bathroom, closet or hallway.
• If you have no basement, protect yourself by taking shelter under a heavy table or desk.
• In all cases, stay away from windows, outside walls and doors

If you live on a farm

• Livestock hear and sense impending tornadoes. If your family or home is at risk, the livestock will be a non-issue. If your personal safety is not an issue, you may only have time to open routes of escape for your livestock. Open the gate, if you must, and then exit the area in a tangent direction away from the expected path of the twister.

If you are in an office or apartment building

• Take shelter in an inner hallway or room, ideally in the basement or on the ground floor.
• Do not use the elevator.
• Stay away from windows.

If you are in a gymnasium, church or auditorium

• Large buildings with wide-span roofs may collapse if a tornado hits.
• If possible, find shelter in another building.
• If you are in one of these buildings and cannot leave, take cover under a sturdy structure such as a table or desk.

Avoid cars and mobile homes

• More than half of all deaths from tornadoes happen in mobile homes.
• Find shelter elsewhere, preferably in a building with a strong foundation.
• If no shelter is available, lie down in a ditch away from the car or mobile home. Beware of flooding from downpours and be prepared to move.

If you are driving

• If you spot a tornado in the distance go to the nearest solid shelter.
• If the tornado is close, get out of your car and take cover in a low-lying area, such as a ditch.

In all cases

• Get as close to the ground as possible, protect your head and watch for flying debris.
• Do not chase tornadoes - they are unpredictable and can change course abruptly.
• A tornado is deceptive. It may appear to be standing still but is, in fact, moving toward you"

 The severe thunderstorms/supercells may form into a severe thunderstorm complex or MCS by evening once they transition they will drift eastwards into the Red river valley, interlakes, Eastern Manitoba late evening and overnight with large hail as large as baseballs, damaging wind potential 80km/h plus, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall near 25 to 75mm. They will weaken once they near the Ontario border or cross into Minnesota. Storms possible Friday afternoon in the Red River Valley/East MB but a slim chance. Will keep you updated on Twitter, Manitoba Weather Center and Southern Manitoba Weather Hub. Here is a great page with information on the weather terms I used such as squall line, supercells, MCS and bow echo's.