Significant severe weather on the way!

A round of heat and humidity will give way to a significant thunderstorm potential and it will be the first severe weather event of this year, we have waited a long time for a event such as this to take place and it will bear watching.

Tonight a area of warmer air will move into the province out ahead of a low pressure system that will be moving into the province tomorrow afternoon and evening, I expect our dewpoints overnight to rise ahead of this area of low pressure making it feel quite humid. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to high teens under clear skies.

Thursday will be a interesting day weatherwise it could be the first day severe weather occurs in 2016, the day will start very sunny and with dewpoint temperatures getting into the mid to high teens possibly above 20C in some areas of southwest Manitoba making it feel rather humid. Temperatures by  afternoon should be in the mid to high twenties making it feel closer to 40C. Once we reach the noon hour there will be a frontal system from the west making it's way into Manitoba by late afternoon. There will be explosive thunderstorm development and in fact stormchasers are coming up from the states into Canada to chase. Why? Let's have a look.

Significant Tornado Parameter for the day Thursday. Potential for supercells.

EHI is very useful in forecasting tornado potential, an 8 means significant tornadoes are possible take it with a grain of salt though.

Tornado Potential and severe hail potential in and around Dauphin on Thursday

Tornado Potential and severe hail potential in and around Brandon on Thursday

Sadly Tornado potential exists in model runs at 1am for Winnipeg on Friday.

As you can see there appears to be a very high risk for severe weather tomorrow. Let's have a look at the data I came up with.
Moisture - No shortage of moisture. High dewpoints in the mid to high teens, possibly above 20C on Thursday. Humidex values above 35C.
Instability- Extreme Instability is in place for Thursday. CAPES on the order of 3,000 to 4,500 J/kg, Lifted Indicies between -7 to -12. Bulk Richardson Number in Dauphin at 13.26, Brandon (both at 7pm) Winnipeg at 13 (1am). Anything in the teens is optimal for supercells. Total Totals is 68 in Dauphin, 58 in Brandon, 58 in Winnipeg which means scattered severe storms. SWEAT (Severe weather threat index) is 490 in Brandon,  847 in Dauphin, 595 in Winnipeg overnight altogether means supercell potential.
Shear- Significant shear is possible on Friday in between 200 to 500 m2 s-2, as well as EHIs of 3 to 8 in the southwest portion of the province. Significant Tornado is at 4 to 6.
T-Trigger Cold Front coming through later in the day time late afternoon out West and late evening to overnight in the Red River Valley East MB.

Severe Thunderstorms and supercells are most likely to fire late afternoon to early evening in Western Manitoba.

Put this altogether we have a explosive environment for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. To start off once the cold front interacts with the heat and humidity ahead of it expect discrete supercell thunderstorms to fire off late afternoon in the Western half of the province as far North as Swan River they will pose a tornado threat with the highest risk areas being the Dauphin area East towards Lake Manitoba into southwest Manitoba. Supercell potential is very high tomorrow afternoon into the evening and overnight. Alongside with winds in excess of 100km/h, golf ball to base ball size hail, heavy rains with as much as 75mm expected to fall, and dangerous frequent lightning as it moves east southeastwards. Storm Chasers will be out tomorrow afternoon and evening in the West.

Overnight Severe Storms expected in the eastern half of the province.

Possible Evolution of a dangerous bow Echo Overnight into Friday

Winnipeg could be hit by this bow echo on Thursday Night.

High Shear expected Thursday night with decent supercell potential

Supercell potential in the Red River Valley on Thursday Night, nothing as big as the Western half of Manitoba though.

Once that all evolves expect that there will be some kind of straight line wind event with possible embedded tornadoes, the risk of violent tornadoes is present in the Red River Valley and Winnipeg  overnight on Thursday but if anything expect winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds the system will move east southeast late afternoon to overnight as it moves into either Northwest Ontario or Northern Minnesota. Please make ure you tie everything down that you can in the case of this potentially being a big wind event. Temperatures will stick around twenty degrees overnight on Thursday. Please listen for watches and warnings put out by Environment Canada tomorrow and take shelter when severe weather hits. Never film a tornado when it is coming at you, head to shelter immediately!  You can use these tools to prepare and see what the weather will be like....
https://spotwx.com/, http://scottkehler.powweb.com/june0816/, http://weather.gc.ca/, weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=refcmp&rh=2016060812&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=
 and my page.... www.michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbwxcentral


Here is a run down of the areas requested earlier tonight:

West Central: Dauphin,Binscarth, Roblin, Ste Rose, Ethelbert, Amaranth, Sidney, Basswood, Newdale.: High Risk of Severe. Supercells Likely mid afternoon and early evening, Tornadic potential is there with strong tornadoes possible late afternoon and evening. Clearing Mid Evening.

Southwest: La Rivirie, Boissevain, Melita, Glenboro, Brandon, Baldur, Pilot Mound, Treherne, Oak Lake, Hartney, Virden, Cartwright, Miami, Spruce Woods, Somerset, Shilo, Waskada, Neepawa.: High Risk of Severe. Supercell thunderstorms are likely late afternoon to mid evening, Tornadoes are a threat and could be very strong when they develop. Clearing by mid to late evening.


RRV: Erickson, Elm Creek, Culross, Grosse Isle, Ste Agathe, Haskett, Carman, Sanford, Kane, Winnipeg (Saint James, Silver Heights, Transcona, St.Boniface, Downtown, River Heights, Charleswood, East Kildonan, West Kildonan, Wolseslely). East Saint Paul, West Saint Paul, Elie, Portage La Prairie, Emerson, Lowe Farm, Winkler, Morden.: High Risk of Severe. Straight line wind event likely mid to late evening with embedded tornadoes possible albeit weak, winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

SE: Vita, Grunthal, Piney, Sprague, New Bothwell, Steinbach. Moderate Risk of severe. Thunderstorms may very well mis you depending on how far southeast they dig. If you get hit you will be in the main event: winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to toonies and hen eggs, rains as high as 50mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

East MB: Beausejour, Marchand, Seddons Corner, Anola, Whiteshell. Moderate Risk of severe.  Main action may miss you and slide past the border south of you or you will get hit by the main line with winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to toonies and hen eggs, rains as high as 50mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

Interlakes: Fraserwood, Arborg, Gimli, Stony Mountain, Fisher Branch, Selkirk: High Risk of Severe. Supercells and Straight line wind event likely mid to late evening with embedded tornadoes possible albeit weak, winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

More chances of showers and storms run through the end of the week on Friday with a possible severe weather day again as well. The weekend has more severe chances possible, it is just too soon to get into details. Temperatures in the mid to high 20's possible under humid conditions.