Heat and Unsettled weather Ahead

 Much of southern Manitoba has experienced a hot and dry weekend, temperatures soared into the low to mid 30s. Fortunately this trend looks like it may have some hope in store, an area of low pressure will move through the region and it may bring a chance for unsettled weather. There might be a threat for severe weather as well. Read on to find out more . 

Monday: Much of southern sections of the province will be basking in the heat, it appears a band of showers and weak thundershowers will move through the southern half of the province early in the morning. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected. A cold front and attendant low pressure system will approach the region, by mid to late afternoon. CAPE values are expected to be in the 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg range with bulk shear values only of 20 to 30 knots. Once that front goes through the heat and humidity, there is a chance of severe thunderstorm development come the afternoon period. Model data I have looked over appears to hint at isolated to scattered thunderstorm development particularly after a line of thunderstorms moves through the region currently to 3pm. with a risk of thunderstorms becoming severe in between the hours of 12pm-9pm. The best risk for severe weather will be up into the inter lakes from Portage La Prairie east to the Ontario border south to the USA border. The potential would be mainly gusts to 100km/h, 2 to 4cm hail and heavy rainfall.  Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30s (30 to 35C). Humidex values more so in the high 30s (35 to 40C). Winnipeg: Sunny, increasing clouds by morning. Then 70 percent chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms (some severe). High 28C. Humidex 35C. Brandon: Partly cloudy , 30 percent chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the afternoon, high 29C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon. High 27. Humidex 32. Monday Night: It appears that the cold front will move through the region come the late evening, behind it moderating temperatures are expected. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to high teens. Clear skies to partly cloudy skies are also expected. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers in the evening. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the evening.  Low 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy low 15C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy. Low 17C. 

Tuesday: A cold front is expected to drop south with a northwesterly flow aloft , the unfortunate part of this is that the front will also bring behind it smoke from fires burning in northern Saskatchewan. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected there will also be a risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will soar into the low to high twenties (22C to 27C), with the cooler temperatures in the parklands regions. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms. hazy with smoke high 27C. Brandon:  Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms, hazy with smoke high 26C. Dauphin:  Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms  hazy with smoke high 22C. Tuesday Night: Clearing skies are expected, as the front moves south into North Dakota. There may be a few left over showers however that should clear by evening. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens, overnight (13 to 16C). Winnipeg: 30% chance of showers in the evening with the risk of a thunderstorm. Low 16C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers with a risk of a thunderstorm in the evening. Low 16C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the evening. Risk of a thunderstorm. Low 16C. 

Wednesday: Sunny and hot weather is expected to return for the day, high pressure should arrive back in the region. The only thing is that smoke will filter into the region again as a northwesterly flow sits over the area and hazy skies will likely give way to less sunlight coming in. High temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20s once again. Winnipeg: Sunny, hazy with smoke. High 29C. Brandon: Partly cloudy. Hazy with smoke high 26C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 28C. Hazy with smoke.