Monday, July 19, 2021

Smoky conditions and slightly unsettled weather ahead.


 Much of southern sections of Manitoba is seeing reduced air quality as a result of a a cold front passing through this morning, a northeast to northerly wind is taking over ushering in smoke from the wildfires in northern Manitoba and Ontario. (as seen in this air quality map above).

Monday Night: A cold front will be draped across the northern plains with another area of low pressure sitting over Saskatchewan. Increasing cloud is likely across all of the southern half of Manitoba, as a low pressure system moves into the area from Saskatchewan. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in areas of southwestern Manitoba this evening and drift into areas of southcentral or extreme southern Manitoba late this evening and after midnight with a risk of some severe storms. Most of the thunderstorms will travel east-southeast and will likely clip the border as they move into North Dakota . There is however a risk of some severe storms staying on the Manitoba side. Elsewhere smoke looks to be a major factor in the overnight period as a northeasterly wind comes in play behind these thunderstorms. The southeastern half of Manitoba however will be expecting clear to partly cloudy conditions, with heavy smoke in those areas. Temperatures for the region tonight will vary, low temperatures will drop into the mid teens in the interlakes, parklands (12 to 15C). Temperatures in the high teens in southern sections of Manitoba (15-18C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms (some storms may be severe) smoke increasing overnight. Low 17C. Brandon: Cloudy with 60% percent chance of showers and risk of severe thunderstorms. Low 18C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers and risk of a thunderstorm low 15C. 

Tuesday: During the morning hours showers with  thunderstorms some severe will be likely in the regions of the red river valley, that should clear come the afternoon hours. More showers are expected for a large section of the southern half of Manitoba expecting showers starting in the morning in the southwest moving into eastern sections come the afternoon. Smoky conditions will also be sitting over the region as a result of the wildfires in eastern Ontario. Temperatures will not rise much as they have over the past couple of weeks. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to high 20’s (23 to 29C). Much of the heat is expected to sit over the northern plains. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy with 40% chance of showers, risk of thunderstorms in the morning. High 29C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, 40% chance of showers in the afternoon high 26C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy , 30% of chance of showers. High 27C. 

Tuesday Night: Another batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to come into areas of southwestern Manitoba during the evening hours , this appears however to be a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms. This will likely move east through the evening and overnight, exiting the province by morning. No severe thunderstorms are expected however.  Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to high teens, (15 to 19C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. Low 21C. Brandon: Cloudy, showers beginning in the evening. Risk of thunderstorms. Low 18C. Dauphin: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers. Risk of thunderstorms. Low 18C. 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with local smoke is likely during the day. Another slightly unsettled day will likely set itself up over the southern half of Manitoba, a low pressure system will be sitting over southwestern Manitoba, with showers and a risk of thunderstorms  developing over the region mainly in the red river valley and southeastern sections of Manitoba. However the chances look much slimmer than on Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to high 20s (24 to 29C) with the coolest temperatures expected in the parklands. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy with 40% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms. Local smoke High 29C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers high 28C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, high 24C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with a bit of a southerly wind coming in for the region, temperatures are expected to be in the high teens to low 20’s overnight. Winnipeg: Clear, low 23C. Brandon: Clear, low 18C. Dauphin: Clear low 18C.

Second half of the week: It appears we will be in for increasing heat over the second half of the week with day time high temperatures soaring into the mid to  high 20s to mid 30’s for daytime highs and overnight lows in the high teens to low 20’s. The jet stream appears to setup over our area and will be ideal for multiple low pressure systems to ride through our area, with chances at showers and more thunderstorms.    Smoke may be a issue still. Welcome news for those that are suffering from drought.

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