Slightly warmer week ahead, thunderstorm chances

 Much of southern Manitoba has been stuck in a period of dry weather as a result of high pressure, that unfortunately has contributed to drought conditions. The trend of dry weather looks to change somewhat as a somewhat active storm track sets up. 

The heat continues!!! Here’s a look at Tuesday’s temperatures. Yikes, low to mid 30’s possible as a trough of low pressure draws in heat and humidity from the south. 

The rest of Monday: Southern sections of Manitoba have had some showers and thunderstorms as part of an area of low pressure sitting over central Manitoba , some lake breeze boundaries have been sinking south from the Manitoba lakes and this has resulted in some thunderstorms at times forming. Hail was also reported in the St vital area of Winnipeg. For the rest of the day today sunny skies are expected, some cloud cover is likely in areas of southeastern Manitoba with some showers possible. Temperatures are forecasted to rise into the mid to high 20’s (23 to 29C)for much of southern Manitoba with areas along the border seeing highs in the low 30’s. (30-32C). are still expected to reach there daytime high by 6pm-7pm. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy: 30% chance of showers with the risk of thunderstorms. High 29C. Brandon: Sunny high 30C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 24C. 

Monday Night: I’m expecting clear to partly cloudy skies with a light breeze out of the NW, overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens (14 to 18C) Tuesday night. Winnipeg: Clear, low 15C. Brandon: Clear, low 15C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Tuesday: Will be one of the warmest days ahead, sunny skies are expected. However towards the latter half of the day a trough will move into southern sections of Manitoba and create a risk for severe weather. A large area of CAPE from 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg looks possible in areas of the parklands into central Manitoba. The only issue is that capping may prevent storms from forming in the late afternoon and evening. If they do form they will have the capability to be severe. With large hail , damaging winds and intense lightning with the risk of a tornado. The storms will probably form in the parklands and central before moving east south east with the rest of southern Manitoba at risk of thunderstorms in the evening and overnight. There will be a slight risk of severe as they move southeast as hinted by the RDPS and NAM models however I expect mainly remain non severe though. There is a chance they could entirely miss the southern half of Manitoba so prepare for possible dissapointment, Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30’s (30 to 35C) with high twenties expected in southeastern Manitoba (25 to 30C). Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms risk of severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon. High 33C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy. 30% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms. High 35C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, risk of severe thunderstorms. High 33C. 

Tuesday Night: I’m expecting a chance for the showers and thunderstorms to head south and east into Ontario by mid to late evening leaving clear skies.   Heading into the overnight I’m expecting clearing skies for the overnight period, overnight lows will drop into the high teens and low 20’s (18 to 23C) with an area of low pressure sitting over the area. Winnipeg: 60% Chance of showers/ thunderstorms in the evening with risk of severe then clearing. Low 23C. Brandon: Clear, low 20C. Dauphin: 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms with risk of severe in the evening then clearing low 19C. 

Wednesday: Should be one of the calmer days weather wise, mostly cloudy skies are expected for the first half of the day before sunny skies take over for the rest of the day. High pressure off in BC will give a bit off a westerly flow in the province. Temperatures are expected to soar into the low to mid 30s in areas of southern Manitoba except for the parklands interlakes and eastern Manitoba where high 20’s are likely. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy then Sunny. High 31C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, then sunny high 32C. Dauphin: Sunny high 30C. 

Second half of the week: The hot weather continues and I expect that temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30’s once again on Thursday with our overnight lows in the high teens and low 20’s. There will be a risk for thunderstorms again at the end of the week as a cold front moves through on Friday.