Merry Belated Christmas and Happy Early New Year!

Merry Belated Christmas Everyone and I hope you had an amazing Christmas, I am hoping you all have a joyous holiday season. I am taking a break from blogging for a week or 2. I know that theres some significant freezing rain happening today across southern Manitoba. However I won't be covering this as I am taking some holidays. Justin Oretel on Manitoba Weather Centre is keeping up with it. I wish you all the best in this holiday season. As well I hope your new years 2023 will be blessed and amazing!!! Ill have a 2022 Year in Review sometime in the new year. Remember that the reason for the holidays, is Jesus being born to be the saviour of the world more than 2,000 years ago. The Gospel is 1 Corinthians 15:1-4  God Bless. 

1 Corinthians 

15 Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand;

2 By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain.

3 For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures;

4 And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:

Significant Colorado Low Set to Slam Southern Manitoba

 Southern Manitoba will likely get impacted by a significant Colorado Low Pressure system over the next 24-48 hours. Unfortunately it looks like this system might stick around until at least Thursday. This system will have significant impacts, a batch of freezing rain ahead of the system went through southern sections of Manitoba during the overnight period into the morning today, and it’s beginning it’s impacts on southern Manitoba. This may end up being the first significant storm of the 2022-2023 winter season. Read on to find out more. 

Tuesday: Much of the day will remain cloudy and mild as we sit in the warm sector of the low pressure system, for those who sit around today wondering where all the snow is. It’s on the way. Today will be the calm before the storm, much of the snow at the moment is spiraling over northern North Dakota with snow lightly falling in western Manitoba. Winds will be light out of the south today with temperatures soaring into the high minus single digits, areas in western sections of Manitoba may see highs in the mid minus single digits. 

Tuesday Night (See above for reference): Heavy Snowfall will begin to develop over southern sections of Manitoba tonight, most of that will likely start by at least 9pm to midnight. Conditions will begin to deteriorate rapidly, snow and blowing snow will start mainly along and north of the international border. It’s hard to tell where the heaviest snowfall will occur, there’s a chance it stay’s stateside or lifts north of the border slightly. By morning it will finally reach the northern red river valley and the interlakes. This will be a multi day event so I will post snowfall totals expected at the end of this summary for the storm. Temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits.  So not a lot of cold weather expected. 

Wednesday: Snowfall will continue across much of southern sections of Manitoba this will likely move into the interlakes, parklands and much of northern Manitoba by the afternoon. Travel isn’t advised during the day on Wednesday. (See Photo for snowfall imagery above). Mild temperatures will continue for us, and bizzare enough that they will rise above zero for extreme southern parts of Manitoba near Winkler. 

Snowfall Totals: Southern sections of Manitoba especially along the American border may see as much as 20 to 30cm of snow including western portions of Manitoba. Areas along and north of highway 1 will see upwards of 10 to 20cm especially in areas of western Manitoba. Amounts will vary and if the snowfall area shifts the heavy amounts could very will shift . 

By the end of the Storm, including additional snow that falls on Wednesday night and Thursday a total of 10 to 15cm can be expected along and north of the Trans Canada Highway. 

Wednesday Night: Much of the southern sections of Manitoba will likely experience blowing snow continued with the low sitting over southern Minnesota. A brief reprieve from snow will happen heading into the overnight period before another batch of snow moves in from northwestern Ontario by morning. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as most areas only see lows in the low to mid minus single digits (-2 to -5C). 

The second Half of The week: Remnants of the low pressure system will begin to move east, and more snow and light snow will impact southern sections of Manitoba with another 2-5cm of snow likely into Friday. Temperatures will begin to drop on Thursday with highs in the upper minus single digits with the same on Thursday night. Friday and Friday night lows will drop into the high minus single digits and low minus teens right behind the low. 

Colder Weather Ending, Warmer Weather arriving. ❤️❤️

 I know how all of you are thinking; this week and past several days has been a cold one. It is no surprise as much of our region has been locked in a cold airmass, as part of the polar vortex broke off and plunged into much of central and northern Canada. Can you brave one more day of cold weather?? Southern sections of Manitoba will likely experience one more day of cold temperatures before we finally reach some mild December temperatures, how will this happen, how warm will we get, how long will this last for??  Read on to find out more in the latest blog. 

Thursday: The warmth will be likely to take some time to move into southern Manitoba, Thursday will be one of the last coldest days of the week we will still be under the influence of arctic high pressure which will cause our daytime high temperatures to still sit below normal. It’s not until Friday that high pressure system moves east and will establish a southerly flow over our region. Sunny skies are likely during the day today with high temperatures rising into the low minus teens along and south of the trans Canada highway all the way to the American border from Sask border to the Ontario border. Mainly in extreme far southwest regions will be near -10C. Areas further north in the parklands and in the interlakes and Manitoba Lakes will see values in the low to mid minus teens windchills closer to the -25C mark. 

Thursday Night: The coldest weather will likely hit us tonight before a reprieve on Friday, much of southern sections of Manitoba tonight will likely see low temperatures in the mid to high minus teens and low minus twenties especially in western sections of Manitoba along the escarpment. Partly cloudy skies are likely with much of the region seeing some periods of heavier cloud. 

Friday: Much of that warmth I promised you will finally be moving into our area, thanks to a southerly flow on the east side of high pressure. A warm front will also be advancing north ahead of low pressure. High temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid minus single digits for most. The only exception will be areas over the Manitoba lakes where values will sit in the low to mid minus teens. Windchills will be in the low to mid minus teens for most, the only areas with colder windchills will be the Manitoba lakes where that will likely be in the high minus teens. 

Friday Night: Much of southern sections of Manitoba won’t cool down much on Friday night as we sit on the western side of a high pressure system. A batch of cloud should work its way west to east during the evening with clearing in the southwest but remaining cloudy in the southeast. Also a trough will move through on Friday night. Another round of snowfall is likely with varying intensity and snowfall rates, however only 2-5cm is likely and mainly areas from Portage La Prairie, Winnipeg, east to the Ontario border up into the Gimli and Ashern areas can expect to see snowfall. Blowing snow may be an issue as well because this system will be bringing gusts up to 10-30knots which is 30-50km/h. See photo above, for reference. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid minus single digits on Friday night. Barely any windchill. 

Saturday: During the day Saturday, for those in the eastern sections snow will continue with blowing snow and travel difficult in the extreme southeast part of Manitoba. Flurries are likely for a good part of south central Manitoba and interlakes on Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the high minus single digits close to 0C in the south central and southeast part of Manitoba, areas in the southwest and west will drop into the high minus single digits. Saturday night snow will taper off leading to partly cloudy skies overnight . Overnight lows will sit in the mid to high minus single digits. Lakes may be a bit colder than that. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies are expected during Sunday, there will be flurries developing later in the day with a southerly flow in place. So high temperatures will rise, well into the low to mid minus single digits. Sunday night will also be very mild with high temperatures sitting pretty much where they were during the day, only some areas may drop a degree or 2 past -5C to -6C. Windchill will not be as bad either with values closer to -10 to -16C.  

The Week Details Coming in a Seperate Blog. Snowstorm is possible coming next week on the 14th, so I will have more details soon, as the day gets closer. That will be shared in a special blog on Sunday . So far though it looks like this warmer weather pattern continues into next week. 

Cold Weather arriving. Polar vortex on the way

 Welcome back to Winter Wonderland in southern Manitoba, the snow is on the ground, the windchill is high and the roads are icy. For those thinking that summer would stay, unfortunately as the tilting of the sun and rotation of the earth winter has to come. Well the reality of it is you can thank this cold weather due to a polar vortex that is beginning to sink south over the Canadian prairies. That is detailed below in probably one of the coldest temperature values I have seen in a very long time, that below is on Friday afternoon 🥶🥶🥶. Find out how cold it will get and what we can expect weather wise, in southern sections of Manitoba. 

Tonight: We will be sitting on the edge of an arctic high pressure system as we experience a northwesterly flow aloft our temperatures tonight will be cold, crisp and arctic like. A good majority of our region will see overnight lows in the mid to high minus teens, with windchill values in the mid to high minus 20’s if you are in the Swan River and Assessippi Provincial park regions chances are windchills could be approaching minus 30C. Very little in the way of cloud is expected over all regions tonight. 

Extra Feature: 

This is one of those well known facts that the polar vortex becomes a yearly occurrence, the above image is a model run image of the polar vortex that is expected to impact a large portion of Canada next Tuesday. The arctic and the northern part of the United States. It will likely have impacts on our weather pattern over the next couple of weeks. Don’t worry; the polar vortex has been around for centuries but only has been brought into the mainstream recently thanks to the media bringing attention to it a few years ago. It is usually mainly over the arctic but it recent years it’s been displaced by warming in the stratosphere. Read more on the polar vortex here: https://www.weather.gov/safety/cold-polar-vortex I am seeing signs of a pacific push of air over western Canada come mid to late December, we’ll see if this verifies. 

Thursday: For those wondering about some milder temperatures, Thursday is pulling I guess a winter prank. A low pressure system will be skirting the USA border and with that it will bring in a batch of cloudcover, there will be some periods of sun mixed in. So sun and cloud likely on the day. Temperatures will warm up and they will turn out milder than all of this past week, high values will rise into the mid to high minus single digits. Windchills may feel slightly colder than that. In the evening hours a batch of snow and light snow will likely develop in southwest Manitoba. 

Thursday night: A low pressure system off to the south of us will pull in a cold arctic airmass as we sit on the north side of the low, a good chance of snow on the backside will likely bring 3-5cm. Depending on the intensity there will likely be some heavier bands but brief. Temperatures on Thursday night will stay mild in the southeast with temperatures in the high minus single digits, and areas just west of Elie seeing values in the low minus teens. Windchills will only be in the low minus teens in the southeast further west with values in the mid to high minus teens. Further north in the parklands a higher chance of values in the low minus 20’s. A large area expected to see snowfall, regardless of temperatures. 

Friday: Remnants of the low pressure system will move over southern Manitoba before going into Ontario in the later half of the day . Temperatures will only get colder behind an arctic cold front that will be sitting over the Canadian prairie provinces snow will begin to taper off towards the late morning hours to early afternoon. High temperatures will only be reached in the late morning to early afternoon hours in the low to teens for most. However most of the temperatures will drop by the late afternoon well into the mid to high minus teens by evening most of our area will be seeing wind chill values well into the mid to high minus 20’s, before dropping close to -30C (I mean -26 to -29C ) for a large majority of the south. Frostbite will be possible in minutes. 

Friday Night: Clearing will be likely with a majority of temperatures dropping well into the high minus teens to low minus 20’s. Windchills will likely sit well into the high minus 20’s and low minus 30’s. This is the kind of cold that can cause frostbite and becomes dangerous if skin is left exposed. Please dress warmly and stay indoors if you can. 

The Weekend: Another day of sunny skies is likely on Saturday. As well another batch of snow is likely on Sunday with about 1-3cm likely. Temperatures will warm into the high minus single digits closer to -10C on Saturday. Saturday highs should be stable and sit in the mid to high minus teens, Saturday night lows will rise into the low to mid minus teens, as snow builds in. Sunday will see similar temperatures with most areas seeing highs in the low to mid minus single digits. Warmer than earlier in the week. That cold builds right back in overnight well into the mid to high minus teens, areas in the inter lakes and parklands will see values well into the high minus teens with windchills in the minus 20’s. 

Enjoy the rest of the week and the weekend. -Mike 

Warm Second Half of The week ahead

 

Much of southern Manitoba is in store for some warmer weather as we head into the second half of the week, southern sections of the province can expect to see temperatures in the range they would be in early spring. See that low pressure system above?? That warm front and low pressure system will be the one providing us with a nice warm up. However that could change for us as we head into next week. 

Looking at a much shorter blog for this post, much of our region can expect a varying amount of warmth on the day Thursday with high temperatures soaring into the low to mid single digits on the plus side, some sun and cloud  and some areas in the inter lakes seeing high temperatures in the low minus single digits or around 0C. If you are looking for the warmth, the real warmth comes in on Friday. The temperatures on Thursday night will bottom out in the mid minus single digits before rising overnight into the morning to the low minus single digits. 

Friday (Above): a much warmer day is on tap with areas in the extreme southwest at a chance of seeing high temperatures in the 10-12C mark, with areas further east in eastern and central Manitoba have a lower chance of that with highs only reaching the low to mid to even high single digits but this warmth will spread north into central Manitoba. Friday night: Temperatures will remain on the mild side staying above the freezing mark with temperatures in the low plus single digits. The weekend will be equally mild with high temperatures in the low to mid single digits and overnight lows in the low to mid minus single digits, with Sunday night seeing lows in the high minus single digits. 

Next week: another round of snow is possible with cooler temperatures as we get impacted by the north side of a Colorado low. 

Cold Start to the weekend with a Gradual Warmup

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba is in for a calm weekend weather wise ; except for a large swath of snow that will move through southern archons of Manitoba on Saturday evening. At the moment there are snow squalls coming off of lake Winnipeg, there is narrow bands of it occurring at the moment. What I’m looking at this weekend is a warm front moving through southern sections of Manitoba on the evening on Saturday, on the east side of it temperatures will sit in the low to mid to high minus teens on Saturday in south central and southeastern Manitoba with areas in southwestern Manitoba warming into the mid to high minus single digits.

On Saturday night a band of snow will move through southern sections of Manitoba bringing with it a brief, but heavy band of snow along with it. A good chance of  3-5cm is likely with snow and blowing snow, travel isn’t advised on highways in reduced visibilities on Saturday evening.  Temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the low to mid minus teens. On Sunday a much warmer airmass will filter into our region, thanks to a westerly flow developing over our area this will definitively mark the beginning to a longer stretch of warmer weather. Sunday high temperatures will rise into the low to mid minus single digits with overnight lows in the high minus single digits on Sunday night. This warmer weather pattern will continue into the week with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits, and overnight lows continued in the low minus teens and high minus single digits.

Snow storm to impact southern Manitoba over the next 24-36 hours, cool weather to follow.

 Much of southern Manitoba looks to get impacted by a snowstorm heading into Friday, a lot of northern North Dakota including some regions of southeastern Manitoba has been experiencing heavy snowfall in the Sprague, northwest angle, and the southeastern sections of Manitoba. Unfortunately impacts look like they are going to stay with us into remembrance day. Find out when and where the heaviest impacts will occur, and what you can expect for the rest of the weekend. 

Forecast snowfall and storm system location around 3am local time. Snowfall forecast graphic is below.. 

Tonight: A strong powerful low pressure system will sit over northern North Dakota tonight dropping upwards of 20 to 40cm of snow over northwest North Dakota, and impacts extending into southern sections of Manitoba. Areas of southwestern Manitoba, the parklands, the interlakes, and western Manitoba will likely escape the snow itself. Snow has already begun and it will persist into the next 24-36 hours, cloudy skies are likely overnight with snow and winds gusting to 40 to 60km/h out of the northwest resulting in reduced visibility Highway travel isn’t recommended. Even within city limits visibility may be down to zero at times.

Generally 15 to 25cm of snow will likely fall along the American border in south central Manitoba into the pembina valley, areas along the edge from southwestern Manitoba into Winnipeg , the red river valley and eastern Manitoba will see 10 to 15cm of snow possibly. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid minus single digits, some areas may feel colder in the low to mid minus teens with the windchill in the interlakes and western Manitoba on the edge of the snow . Areas in eastern Manitoba will see low windchills in the low to mid minus teens. 

Friday: Snow should begin to taper off by the morning, with a lot of local blowing snow continuing through the  afternoon. There will be a chance for flurries through the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies expected, except the interlakes regions where sunny skies are likely. unfortunately because of the snowfall overnight temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing. Highs in the day Friday will rise into the low to mid minus single digits, windchills likely sit just around -10C to slightly above around -11 to -12C. 

Friday Night: High pressure will likely move in and that’s when we are likely going to see some of the coolest temperatures overnight that we have seen since last spring. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the high minus single digits and some areas could see wind chills in the low to mid minus teens, around -10 to -15C especially in western Manitoba where the coldest windchills will be. . 

Saturday and Sunday: High pressure looks to build in and this weekend calmer weather likely as well, Saturday expect a mix of sun and cloud with high temperatures in the mid minus single digits. Wind chills will likely sit in the high minus single digits and low minus teens. Saturday night will see increasing clouds. Overnight lows will stay on the mild side as cloudy skies keeps the warmth in and acts as a blanket, which will end up resulting in lows in the high minus single digits with windchills in the low minus teens. Sunday will see a chance for cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits, also it looks like windchills will be in the same range. Sunday night a chance for flurries is likely and low temperatures will drop into the high minus single digits with some areas around the red river valley seeing lows in the low minus teens. A good chance of seeing similar windchills on Sunday night in the low minus teens and high minus single digits.  

Cold and slightly unsettled weekend Expected

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba has experienced a fairly warm fall that has featured temperatures in the mid to high teens the past few weeks. Some days during the past few days seeing highs close to 20C, in November that is highly unusual.

Over the weekend we can expect to see a low pressure system (above) on the day Saturday to move through bringing in a slightly warmer airmass. Temperatures on the day Saturday will soar into the mid to high single digits, later a low pressure system will move in bringing a swath of rain and snow. Areas from the parklands south can expect rainfall, with most snow happening north by the Swan River regions. Snow with rain mixed will then quickly move through the rest of the south after 6pm.  There’s a good chance that this will clear out by the late evening early overnight period. Saturday night cold weather will filter in with a good chance of cloud cover clearing out. Low temperatures will drop into the low single digits in the southeast and south central  with the areas in the southeast seeing lows in the low minus single digits. Sunday the low pressure system as mentioned will move into Ontario , behind it a cold air mass will move in bringing another round of snowfall into southern regions.

Most of the area will see amounts of 5 to 10cm, except areas in northern Manitoba where upwards of 20cm could fall in NW Manitoba. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the low minus single digits in southern ‘Manitoba areas in the north interlakes will see highs in the low single digits. Also poor visibility and snow and blowing snow is likely to occur in western portions of Manitoba. Travel isn’t recommended. Sunday night will likely be the coldest with overnight low temperatures dropping into the high minus single digits and low minus teens in the western half of Manitoba, along border regions. Elsewhere expect lows between -4C and -9C. Windchills might be colder than -10C in some areas.  

The week ahead: Temperatures will remain cooler than we have seen lately, with the likelihood of most areas seeing highs in the low to mid minus single digits on Monday with a swath of snow coming up from the states along a warm front overnight into Tuesday, lows on Monday night will likely warm as a warmer air mass arrives. Lows will sit around the zero degrees to low minus single digits.  Another cool day will arrive on Tuesday with highs in the low single digits in south central, southeast and parts of the southwest seeing those temperatures. Areas elsewhere in the west will only see highs in the low minus single digits. There’s a good chance of more rain and snow just still have to wait for more model data to determine where the heaviest amounts will fall. There will be the possibility of thunderstorms as mentioned by Dan Riddle from NWS Grand Forks. Whether they happen will depend on how far that warmth moves. Regardless we have some interesting weather ahead for the coming week. 

Warming Weather Trend

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect to see some of the warmest weather we will likely see this month into November, before cold begins to set in. Find out more about this well above average warmth in this weekend blog. 

(Above): Warm weather ahead for the day Saturday as shown above by the RDPS 00Z weather model. You can thank this to a ridge of high pressure sitting over our area. Temperatures in the low to mid teens likely.  

Friday Night: The rest of the evening into our overnight will be marked by warm and slightly seasonal weather, some cloudy skies with thicker clouds likely. Showers are likely in the overnight period from west to east. A general 5mm of rainfall is likely overnight. Temperatures overnight will likely drop into the mid to high single digits. You can thank the strong south winds for the warm weather. 

Saturday: During the day Saturday , mostly cloudy skies will be likely during the morning hours . Sunny skies should filter in during the latter half of the day too. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid teens during the day. Saturday night: A cold front approaching from the northern part of Manitoba will sink south slightly overnight bringing in increasing cloud cover and the possibility of some colder overnight lows. Areas in eastern, western and inter lake sections of Manitoba may see overnight lows drop below zero that will likely be in rural areas of the province. Areas elsewhere will see low temperatures in the low to mid single digits. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the morning, with cloudy skies likely during the latter half of the day. Showers will probably move through during the second half of the day with light amounts of a trace to 2mm. Western Manitoba may have enough time to escape the rain by the afternoon which will help clearing arrive early enough, to allow for sunshine and temperatures to rise into the low to mid teens. Elsewhere in the south can expect showers to continue, with the highest temperatures reaching as far north of Winkler. So the edge of the warmest air may just sit south of Winnipeg, with areas north of highway 2 and highway 1 into the inter lakes, parklands, western Manitoba and eastern half of our region. In those regions we will only be seeing high temperatures in the high single digits. Overnight low temperatures on the night into Monday will drop into the low single digits. 

The week ahead: Much of the same with weather can be expected into the week; with high temperatures in the low to mid teens and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits.  Increasing chances for low pressure systems during the week will help boost our temperatures. 

Warm weather continues this weekend, showers, thunderstorms and snowfall Ahead.

 Much of southern Manitoba will likely see some of the warmest weather this weekend, that we havent seen since September. You can thank this warmth to a ridge of high pressure moving in from western Canada, this warmth will likely persist into the weekend. However a change is likely on the way, with a likely chance for rain, thunderstorms and even maybe snow. 

Friday: Southern Manitoba will expect to see a beautiful end to the week with high temperatures soaring into the low to mid teens, increasing cloud is expected into the latter half of the day as a disturbance from the states starts building in. 

Friday Night: A low pressure system over the northern plains will likely bring scattered to widespread areas of showers just slightly north of the American border into parts of southern Manitoba into the overnight mainly from highway 1 southwards. Best chances for showers will be from the late evening into the overnight period. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits with the coldest expected in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

Saturday: The weather on Saturday will be our transition day I’m expecting that it will also be one of the few days left of warmth, a low pressure system situated over North Dakota will likely allow for a batch of showers to develop over the north end of the low. Some cloud and showers will likely move through the southeast part of Manitoba before partly cloudy skies and some cloud increases during the latter half of the day with more showers moving through in the late afternoon and early evening. A general 5 to 10mm is likely. High temperatures will likely soar into the low to mid teens, with areas in some locales of the west and east seeing highs in the high single digits. 

Saturday Night: It looks like the rain I mentioned will likely move north overnight into central and northern Manitoba. Behind it some partly cloudy skies are expected and times of heavier cloud cover are likely. Overnight low temperatures will likely stay quite mild if you ask me, a large area of the south central and southeast will likely see temperatures in the mid to high single digits. Areas in the southwest will see lows in the low single digits. 

Sunday: This is when the weather gets interesting, a low pressure system will likely move into southern parts of Manitoba.with a warm front draped over parts of northern North Dakota. Ahead of it some showers are possible over a small section of the inter lakes and western Manitoba. Some mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely on the day Sunday, some scattered showers are also possible during the day. Temperature on the day, will likely rise into the low teens to mid teens as per the ECMWF, and GFS. There is a chance however that warmth could stay south of the border with temperatures only reaching the high single digits (blah) according to the NAM model. It’s all dependent on how far north that warm front moves. Current guidance is indicating that chance of the temperatures higher than 10C remains the likely outcome.  

Sunday Night: The warmth in the southeast will stick around as the warm front and the low itself lifts north, all of the snow that was forecasted to impact us beforehand is now likely to hit southeastern Saskatchewan. 

There’s a great variability with this system and some areas may see rain and storms areas further west could get upward of 10cm

Of snow. Details below..

Thunderstorm threat with MUCAPE (Above): As southern Manitoba remains on the warm side of the low, as it moves north into Ontario by morning an increasing amount of gulf moisture will aid in a risk of showers and thunderstorms likely after 12am and the threat will continue into the early morning hours. Models are all over the place in regards to where the threat area will exist, based on the data I’m seeing the consensus is that the area from Carberry or Brandon east towards the Ontario border north into the inter lakes have a chance with the best risk area in southeast Manitoba into the red river valley and inter lake regions including Winnipeg. A general 5 to 15mm is likely overnight in areas that see rainfall. These thunderstorms will not be severe but because freezing levels are lower this time of year, there could be some small hail and gusty winds which I expect the threat to continue into the morning hours. I had my first thunderstorm in April here in Winnipeg so if we get one our season will have been 7 months long. 

Snowfall or mixed rain and snow threat: Areas in southwestern Manitoba especially near the Saskatchewan border may have mixing snow and rain during the overnight period, a general 10 to 20mm can be expected for areas of western Manitoba with the snowfall amounts reaching 2 to 4cm when all is said and done. 

Temperatures: On Sunday night will be quite mild with a large area of southeast and south central regions seeing lows in the low to mid teens, areas in the southwest and the inter lakes, and the eastern half of Manitoba seeing lows in the mid single digits. 

(Above): Potential rainfall will likely exceed 30mm in areas of southeastern Manitoba by Monday afternoon, thanks to thunderstorms embedded in rain. 

Monday (Above): During the morning the low pressure system should continue lifting north and east, there also will be lingering instability there’s a chance that if thunderstorms don’t materialize overnight the threat could occur during the morning into the afternoon hours. The chance of 20 to 40mm of rain is possible as per the latest NAM model (Below) which is overly aggressive on the convection, and later on the thunderstorm risk but with Manitoba you never know. These thunderstorms could develop earlier as the ECMWF highlights, again another reason why convection is hard to forecast. 

As the low moves off into Ontario, cooler weather will begin filtering in on the backside of the low with areas from portage la prairie to the Saskatchewan Manitoba border seeing the chance at rain and snow/freezing rain during the day before a complete switch over to snow for the entire southern half of Manitoba except for the southeast where rain and snow/freezing rain are possible. However snowfall amounts will only reach a trace to 2 to 4cm across the south, most of it will melt in contact . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits before dropping into the low to mid single digits. 

The rest of the week: Cold weather returns with high temperatures only in the mid to high single digits and lows in the minus single digits. There will be a chance for rain and snow showers on Tuesday as another low pressure system moves through. 

Colder weather pattern arrives could stay for a week, first snow of the year possible.

 Well it’s sad to say but our region is pretty much done with the summer like warmth that we have experienced over the past several weeks. Yesterday much of the region saw temperatures in the high teens and low 20’s, unfortunately this weather pattern looks to change. A colder weather pattern is beginning to take shape as fall takes hold, you can thank this to a strong northwesterly flow aloft and a trough of low pressure that will be bringing in moisture from the north. There will be a good chance of rain and snow. Find out when and where we expect snow and how cold it will get, in this weeks weather update. 

(Above: Coldest temperatures in a long time expected to impact a large portion of southern Manitoba on Thursday. Temperatures only reaching the mid single digits or lower). 

Wednesday: Todays weather will be dominated by a northwesterly flow aloft which will bring in significant amounts of cloud cover, overcast skies are likely. Temperatures today will only rise into the mid to high single digits, some localities could reach 10C today. There also will be a chance for showers or flurries to develop as the day goes on, off the Manitoba lakes. 

Wednesday Night (Above): This is when things get interesting, a strong north to northwest flow will be in place which will allow for squalls to develop off of lake Winnipeg and lake Manitoba in lesser strength. Regardless a significant amount of snow is expected east of lake Winnipeg. A general 5-10cm of snow could fall east of lake Winnipeg , mainly near Bissett, Victoria Beach, Manigotgan areas. As for the areas of the red river valley and the inter lakes there will likely be some lake effect snow, a general 2 to 4cm is likely west of and including Winnipeg. Take note that initially the snow will likely melt in contact before it accumulates. 

Thursday (Above): It looks like this will end up being the coldest days of the week, snow will likely continue for a large section of areas just east of lake Winnipeg. There’s a chance there could be ongoing bands of snow off of lake Winnipeg. Accumulations will vary from 20 to 25cm on the east shore of lake Winnipeg, to 5 to 10cm in total west of Winnipeg off lake Manitoba snow. Then towards the latter half of the day snow will develop over a large area from the Ontario border to about as far west as the red river valley including the inter lakes filling in with the snow bands. Some of this could be mixed with rain. A general 5 to 10cm can be expected for areas that haven’t received snow from the bands of lake affect snow. 

Thursday Night: Snow showers will likely continue aided by a northerly flow over the southern half of Manitoba, as the low sags south a large area of the snow that is expected to impact eastern Manitoba will slowly filter west to the southwestern portions of Manitoba with the pesky squalls ending by the early overnight. (See snowfall totals above).  Then from north to south clearing should take over. A general 20 to 30cm is likely in the areas east of Lake Winnipeg, and 5 to 15cm over the headingly, elie and Winnipeg area. My general thinking is that the HRRR is possibly overdoing amounts for the band west of Winnipeg. So I think 10cm to 15cm is reasonable, given the 20cm it’s suggesting is highly unlikely. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid minus single digits in western Manitoba, areas under snow and cloud will see lows drop into the low plus single digits. Areas in eastern Manitoba can expect those lows to drop into the low minus single digits.  Most of the snow should clear the region by overnight with lingering rain and snow showers in the interlakes into southern Manitoba. 

Friday: The low pressure system will begin to move into northwestern Ontario as it does so warmer air will begin to move in showers and flurries are possible during the day with a lot of cloudcover still present. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high single digits for a large area of southern Manitoba. Snow should melt rapidly at these temperatures. 

Friday Night: Another low pressure system , with a trough attached and a cold front will usher in another round of snowfall into the morning on Saturday for areas of western Manitoba more than likely. It looks like it will be a brief but quick burst of snow overnight in western portions of Manitoba with only 2 to 5cm possibly by morning. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the low minus single digits along areas south of highway 1 before moderating overnight in the low single digits, in various areas as cloud cover moves in.

The weekend: Slightly Warmer weather arrives with temperatures rising into the mid to high single digits with a chance for showers on Saturday, that clears on Saturday night with a chance for lake effect flurries. Sunday is when colder weather is likely and lake effect snow is possible with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid single digits on Saturday, Saturday night lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the west and interlakes and low plus single digits in areas of the south central and southeast. Sunday will see highs in the low single digits with lows in the low single digits and low minus single digits in the western half of Manitoba. 

Long Range: It looks like later in the week the cold weather will persist as we remain on the east side of high pressure with similar highs and lows. It also appears that the summer weather will possibly return midweek with above normal temperatures in the mid to high teens, or low 20’s with overnight lows in the high single digits. How long this will stay for is still unclear. 

Last Gasp of Above Seasonal Weather, cooling trend to follow.

 Southern Manitoba has basked in unseasonably warm weather over the last few weeks, with temperatures in the mid to high teens and often in the low to mid 20’s. It’s been so warm that mosquitoes are still biting. Will things change!?? However it’s going to cool off unfortunately a change in the weather pattern is expected as cool arctic air will filter south thanks to an area of high pressure for up to 48 hours. Find out what this means for our weather over the second half of the week. (Don’t mind me and the late post I had a delicious thanksgiving lunch which put me out for a bit). 

Wednesday Night: Much of the region of southern sections of Manitoba will see cold weather filter in tonight , a northerly flow will move in with a chance for showers and flurries. A chance that some may stream off of the Manitoba lakes as well, only a trace to 2cm is possible overnight low temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid single digits. Some areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the low minus single digits. 

Thursday: Will end up being a colder than average day arctic high pressure will sit over our area,  some cloud will stream over and off the lakes as cold air funnels over the relatively warm waters. There’s a chance for some early morning flurries and showers. The rest of the day should bring in some sun and cloud. Nothing significant weather wise is expected. Unfortunately temperatures aren’t expected to rise much with them only rising into the mid single digits, maybe near 10C. Get out your fall clothing!

Thursday Night: A clear night will lead to cold overnight lows with a majority of the region seeing low temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C). Yes that cold!! Good news is that the cold will not last long. So the morning on Friday will be quite cold. I would say however that it’s normal for this time of year, summer has to end unfortunately. 

Friday: Sunny beautiful weather is expected into the afternoon before thicker clouds move in late afternoon over the lakes and the parklands and interlakes showers are possible in extreme eastern sections.  High temperatures, will once again climb back to their normal values with some areas just a tad below seasonal. Temperatures are likely to reach the high single digits in the southeast, and the south central, interlakes and southwest and parklands seeing highs in the low to mid teens. 

Friday Night: An area of increasing cloud will move in during the early evening with some rain showers continuing . There’s a possibility that nothing may come out of it, overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits areas around the lakes will likely see lows in the high single digits. 

The Weekend: Much of the region will see warm weather this weekend,, a return to warm and seasonal weather will be likely. Temperatures will rise into the mid teens on Saturday.. Saturday night will see lows in the low to mid single digits in the west and central parts of Manitoba . Then low minus single digits are likely in southeast Manitoba. Sunday mostly sunny weather is likely in the mid to high teens with some areas possibly reaching the 20C range only near the American border. Sunday night is expected to be much of the same with lows in the high single digits to the low teens. 

Long Range: Extremely hotter than average weather looks possible with high temperatures returning to the  low to mid 20’s on Monday the to high 20’s on Tuesday with overnight lows in the low teens on Monday night and mid to high teens on Tuesday night. Fluctuating temperatures are likely to occur during the week with highs around normal to slightly above average. Not much in the way of precipitation is expected but will have to watch for showers or weak thunderstorms on the warmer days, although if not sunny weather is likely .  

Heat and Humidity briefly return, late season severe weather threat arrives.

 Hello folks, this could be an interesting next few days ahead. Our region of the province will likely encounter another round of unusual warmth, humidity and summer like temperatures. Whats unusual is we have to look out for severe thunderstorms at the start of the week. Find out more about the severe weather potential and when this pattern will change and what to expect for the first half of the week. 

Monday: During the day a warm front will be expected to move into southern regions of Manitoba, this low pressure system will lift north into southern sections of Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of CAPE 1,000 to 1,500 from southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley is likely to take shape. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the high teens to low 20’s in much of southern sections of Manitoba, the dew point will not to be too far off from the actual temperature so the humidex values will rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s which gives the average humidity levels close to 50 to 75%.

(Above): HRRR model suggesting the possibility of severe weather in the red river valley and interlakes areas of Manitoba after development in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

NAM model below suggesting similar conditions except later in the evening, and further north.

For the day Monday, model data appears to be in agreement now place in regards to placement and timing, as last night was still all over the place. The HRRR is in agreement with a lot of the higher resolution models and the NAM, which places thunderstorms developing and moving through the southwest part of Manitoba during the morning and early afternoon. By early to mid afternoon most of the instability will have built up. The red river valley, interlakes area in Manitoba should be on the lookout for showers and thunderstorm development during the afternoon, before a slight risk for severe storms moves in by late afternoon. 

(Dave Carlsens Tweet above talking about the severe weather threat possible later tod afternoon into the evening.)
There also will be a risk area in southwestern Manitoba with higher supercell composite values with the risk for tornadic development moving east as the evening goes on. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex by evening is possible that could travel east into the red river valley, supercells are still possible. Despite the sun setting earlier now storms will be fuelled by a large area of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg of CAPE with Energy Helicity values of 1 to 4 and shear in the range of 30 to 50 knots which will be Centred over the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as the cold front moves through in the evening. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible as they move east as a cold front Stay tuned to Manitoba weather center for updates, as well as my twitter page. 

Monday Night: Expect any thunderstorms to clear the area by evening, and late evening a northwesterly flow will take hold. Mostly cloudy skies are expected into the day on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tuesday: Another calm sunny day is in store with a cold front moving through on the day Tuesday, a small chance of showers is expected in the southeast part of Manitoba. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday Night: A high pressure system will begin to dig southwards with a large area of cloud cover, moving southwards with it. Cloudy skies are expected by the morning hours on Wednesday. 

Wednesday: Much of the same weather can be expected with cloudy skies and high temperatures only rising into the mid to high teens. Areas in more rural regions will be in the higher single digits . 

Slightly cooler weather with Showers and Thunderstorms

 Southern sections of Manitoba will likely experience a period of unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, a low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba bringing with it another round of unsettled weather with showers and potential thunderstorms. Find out when and where in this weeks blog. 

Wednesday: This is when the pattern begins to change, a low pressure system will be off to our southwest in Montana, ahead of it a large area of cloud cover will filter into the region bringing with it a moist airmass. There will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as the system approaches, there also will be a large area of showers moving through the central parts of Manitoba in through the interlakes and western Manitoba including southwestern Manitoba. There’s a smaller chance for showers south of the Manitoba lakes. Amounts of 5-10mm is likely in the areas that receive rainfall. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will reach the mid to high teens with areas closer to the American border along and south of highway 1 seeing highs in the low 20’s. 

Wednesday night (Above simulated radar, lightning density, and rainfall amounts in inches for Wednesday Night): This is where the weather gets interesting, by early evening a large area of warm air will move north as a warm front sits just to the south of the border. This will allow thunderstorms to develop over southwestern Manitoba moving into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. As these sit over the same area with the warm front staying just south of the border there’s the  likelihood of them training and moving over the same area for long periods of time, the reason being the flow will be west to east and the warm air advection will not move much further north than just south of the lakes. This may increase the risk for flash flooding potential. I will monitor this as more data comes in. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits to the low teens, on Wednesday night. 

Thursday and Friday: Calmer weather will arrive , there will be mostly cloudy skies expected on the day Thursday. There will also be cooler temperatures with highs on Thursday reaching the mid teens. Thursday night much of the same with low temperatures reaching the low teens and high single digits. Friday will only see highs in the low teens. 

Above Seasonal Temperatures Diminishing, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to start the week.

 I apologize for not having any blog posts on the hot weather over the last few days. I took some time off for the long weekend, it was enjoyable as I was able to spend time with family and friends. Anyways Southern sections of Manitoba are likely to expect another day or 2 of hot weather, there’s also a chance for some showers and thunderstorms find out when and where in this blog weather update. 

Temperatures above for the day on Wednesday showing the reality of the heat over western Canada. Some areas seeing highs in the low 30’s. 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the nicest days of the week , high pressure will be off to our east in the northeastern USA which will contribute to a warmer than average airmass over our area. Temperatures during the day will soar into the mid to high 20’s with the hottest of the weather in southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley. 

Wednesday Night: A warm front and low pressure system will move through our area overnight the dynamics however are not as strong for severe weather than previously thought. There’s high amounts of instability with Thunderstorm energy in the 1,000 to 2,000 range but there will be sufficient capping (prevents storm formation as a layer of warm air overtakes areas where cold air is needed for storms) and limited amounts of moisture. If storms do form only isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible, with a very slight chance of a isolated severe storm. Best threat is in the red river valley late night early morning.  Temperatures will sit in the high teens to low 20’s on Wednesday night. 

Thursday: The low pressure system I mentioned will move out of the region bringing with it a chance for some showers or weak thunderstorms in the morning hours. Mainly cloudy skies are possible for the rest of the day with most of the moisture moving off to the east. Temperatures will probably reach the high teens to low 20’s for, the coldest of the air is expected to be in the west with warmer highs in the mid 20’s in extreme southeast Manitoba. 

Thursday night: Calmer weather is likely with a chance of clearing in some areas of the west. The cloud cover, fortunately will sit over the eastern half of Manitoba. With us being on the right side of high pressure it will give us a northerly flow aloft. Our temperatures will drop possibly into the mid single digits (3 to 5C) for the first time this fall especially in western Manitoba, sections of the red river valley and the interlakes. Winnipeg and southeastern Manitoba may see lows in the low teens. 

Friday: Will end up being sunny but a cooler than average day, our highs will only reach the mid to high teens. A persistent northerly flow will be part of the issue. Friday night temperatures will drop into the mid to high single digits across the south, these are more like October overnight lows. Frost is also a risk , once again I hate that darn Jack Frost. 😆😆. 

The Weekend: Warmer weather arrives , on Saturday temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s is possible overnight lows in the high single digits in the west and east and low teens in the red river valley. Most of the warmer weather coming on Sunday, I’m looking at a return to temperatures in the high 20’s on Sunday and into the week where high temperatures in the low 30’s are possible with lows in the mid teens to low 20’s.  Humidity may increase as well so we will have to watch for showers, thunderstorms. However it could end up being a dry heat with current data showing low dew points. That could change especially near the end of the week as a trough of low pressure builds in. That’s another reason why I don’t trust long range forecasts , data is inconsistent. 

Heat and Humidity increasing , potential chances of showers and thunderstorms

This week in southern Manitoba will experience one of the warmest rounds of weather we have seen in at least a few weeks, a ridge will move in over our area. A southerly to southwesterly flow will move into our region, boosting temperatures as we move towards the middle of the week. 

However today a trough of low pressure will be moving  out of our region bringing in a northwesterly flow aloft, earlier today showers and some heavy rainfall moved through as the trough sat over our area. Cloudy skies are likely in areas of south central and southeastern Manitoba today, with sunny skies in the southwest part of Manitoba. Temperatures today will only sit in the 19-21C range to low 20’s, with the warmer air in the western half of Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be cooler, just below or around 10C in forested regions of southeast Manitoba. Temperatures elsewhere will drop into the low to mid teens. For the rest of the week, there’s a good chance of some beautiful warm weather moving in. How warm???!! 

Temperatures on Tuesday will jump into the mid to high 20’s, then on Wednesday we will finally start seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s, on Thursday temperatures in the high 20’s to low 30’s maybe mid 30’s. Dewpoint temperatures will also sit in the mid to high teens, which may increase the overall humidex to the low to mid 30’s then on Thursday into the high 30’s. Overnight lows this week will drop into the low to mid teens on Tuesday night and on Wednesday night into the high teens to low 20’s in the parklands. There’s likely going to be an increased risk of potential thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday  as a low pressure system with a cold front moves in from northern Saskatchewan.

(Above Wednesday and Thursday data for storm instability).  Whether severe storms will happen is dependant on how much moisture and instability arrives. Capping may be an issue but this far out is hard to say for sure. We will monitor it. This weather will be quite warm for the month of September our average is 21C this time of year in Winnipeg. 

Have a great week everyone!