Southern Manitoba will experience a multi day thunderstorm threat today through into the first half of the weekend, increasing heat and humidity ahead of a few low pressure systems will increase the severe weather potential. Find out where the hottest of the weather means for us and where the severe weather will be located.
Severe Weather threat expected on Thursday evening, risk area above, that moves south and east on Thursday night.
Thursday: Much of the region will be basking under sunny skies today ahead of a low pressure system arriving from Saskatchewan. The low pressure system and will be the culprit of a severe weather threat arriving in the region late this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures today will soar into the low high 20’s and the low 30’s across the southern half of Manitoba with the highest temperatures along the American border. Most of the active weather isn’t expected to arrive until this evening, however there may be some scattered severe thunderstorms developing late this afternoon with some large hail possible with tornadoes a threat into the parklands.
(Above: The HRRR is hinting at a squall line of some kind moving through Winnipeg overnight, latest model runs have it moving through between 10pm-2am.) This is just a possible outcome.
Thursday Night: The low pressure system I mentioned will enter the province this evening bringing with it a large area of instability and shear supportive of severe thunderstorm and supercell development which will likely occur in Saskatchewan. A general area of 1,000 to 3,000J/Kg of CAPE (Thunderstorm Energy) is forecast to move through the southwest parklands and western half of Manitoba this evening. This energy could extend far enough east and south into the south central part of Manitoba this evening to support thunderstorms in the region some of which may be severe. Severe Thunderstorms and Supercells could form in western and southwestern Manitoba and travel east southeast through the evening, it’s hard to tell where they will develop but when they do a risk for large hail. Some of the high resolution models have shown an area of thunderstorms moving through the southern half of Manitoba particularly the red River valley overnight as the supercells transition over to a squall line. There’s a risk with these thunderstorms for gusts over 80km/h, hail up to the size of loonies or golf ball size hail. Overall overnight low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 20’s in the southeast to the the mid teens in the western half of Manitoba and the interlakes where lows will drop into the low teens.
Friday below….
(Forecast Severe Weather Map above for Friday, courtesy of ECCC Thunderstorm outlooks).
Friday: This is where the forecast gets a little more complicated, model data is all over the place with regards to thunderstorm development and the system coming in tomorrow afternoon. Regardless another low pressure system will be coming into southwestern Manitoba gradually moving east through the day time. Temperatures in the south central and southeast will soar into the mid to high 20’s with some areas in the low 30’s, areas in the southwest will soar into the high teens low to mid 20’s. Dewpoints will also be in the mid to high teens and low 20’s , higher in the southeast. Ahead of it a warm moist airmass will be in place, with moderate to high CAPE levels (Convective Available Potential Energy) if showers in the morning can clear soon enough and thunderstorms don’t develop stateside and push the energy south of the American border, There should be enough room for a squall line to form in the western part of the red River valley or pembina escarpment. Mainly between MacGregor and Elie south to the American border or the red River valley. Severe thunderstorm are possible with all modes of severe weather likely to develop tomorrow, for southwest Manitoba into the interlakes, red River valley and the southeast part of Manitoba. With a high risk area in the southwest to the red River valley into southeast Manitoba including the possibility of 90-110km/h wind gusts, 3-5cm hail, 50mm of rain or more and a tornado threat. A moderate risk area into the parklands and the interlakes and east central MB with 90km/h winds possible, 2cm hail and 30mm of rain or more. ***Note: Much of the severe weather should occur stateside if thunderstorms don’t form on our side of the border.**
(Above): Forecast rainfall amounts for by Friday night: information and map from https://viewer.weatherlogics.com/models.html Significant rainfall likely in thunderstorms that develop on Friday and Friday evening.
Friday Night: Showers and Thunderstorms will likely persist in the southern half of Manitoba, the latest RAP model is showing a swath of showers and thunderstorms moving through the southeast in the early evening. Before a general clearing takes place in the evening hours. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the low teens into the mid teens, with lows around the lakes dropping down to around 10C.
Saturday: A generally cooler day will be in store with high temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s. The warmer air appears to be in the southeast on Saturday. There may be a resurgence of showers and thunderstorms in the south in the afternoon but non severe thunderstorms are expected, if at all.
Saturday night: Increasing cloud cover is expected with a likelihood of showers as a low pressure system builds southwards and we flip around to the backside of the low. There may be some rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits in rural areas, with a majority of the region seeing lows in the low teens.
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies are likely on Sunday with a brisk northerly flow in place. Temperatures are likely to rise into the high teens into the low 20’s. Sunday Night: Clear conditions are likely overnight into Monday, with temperatures in the low teens.
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