Calm Seasonal Weather to turn Unsettled, Severe Weather Returning?

 Calm seasonal weather has been in place this past week since that bout of severe weather arrived last Friday, that is forecast to change as a low pressure system is forecast to move into southern Manitoba on the day Wednesday. Read on to Find out what that means for us and the second half of the week. 

Wednesday: A developing low pressure system will move into southern sections of Manitoba, during the morning a warm front will bring a batch of showers through the region with most of the unsettled weather clearing the area by late morning. The attention then comes towards the afternoon and evening hours when a warm and increasingly humid airmass will move into the area. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s with the warmest of the weather happening in the southern half of Manitoba, areas in the interlakes and the parklands will reach the low 20’s. The dew points will reach the mid to high teens possibly low 20’s. Also with the SBCAPE and MUCAPE expected to approach the 1,000 to 2,500 J/Kg mark. Shear values reaching the 100 to 500m2s2 will result in the risk for severe weather during the afternoon and evening. A cold front will slam into this unstable environment, unfortunately or fortunately wherever you go for storms there appears to be a cap in place which may inhibit thunderstorm development until the late afternoon and early evening when the cold front goes through with the risk persisting into shortly after midnight. What this means is that all modes of severe weather is possible with supercells being possible with damaging winds, large hail, and flooding rains. Tornadoes are also possible. The best risk areas as shown above from the Graphic from Environment Canada. Model land is still all over the place on where thunderstorms will impact the region, with most of the southern half of Manitoba at high risk of severe weather, the exception being the interlakes and the parklands where the risk is moderate. We at Manitoba weather centre will update you on the severe weather risk expected during the day if any alerts get issued. 

Wednesday evening: Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the evening hours and early overnight with the risk of severe weather  before a general clearing can be expected into the late evening hours or early overnight. If storms go through earlier in the evening clearing can be expected overnight. Temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Thursday should be a much calmer day weather wise with sunny skies expected for the region except some cloud and possible showers in the morning. Temperatures on the day will rise into the high teens, possibly low 20’s. Thursday night should be much of the same with overnight lows dropping to the high single digits in the southwest to the low teens in the rest of southern Manitoba. 

Friday (Canada Day): Should end up being a fairly nice day, there may be a few showers or weak thunderstorms  possible as another cold front moves through. Nothing severe is expected though. Temperatures will rise into the high teens to low 20’s. Friday night: A clear and cool airmass will take over and it’ll end up being a bit colder than normal with overnight lows in the high single digits expected to low teens. 

The weekend: Quiet and sunny weather expected with a chance for showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday albeit low, temperatures will rise into the low 20’s to high 20’s on Saturday with overnight lows on Saturday dropping into the high single digits in the SW to the low teens in the southeast. Sunday much of the same expected with highs in the high teens and lows in the low teens to high single digits.