Unsettled Weather with Severe Weather Threat Possible for the week.

 Hope you all are doing well, summer severe weather season is on the way and it’s no surprise that another round of humid weather will possibly lead to another round of severe weather. You can thank this to a low pressure system moving into the western Canadian prairies which is bringing very heavy rainfall to provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan. For us there’s a good chance that low pressure system will affect us in some ways and it could be significant. Find out where and what areas are at risk in this blog. (I also have decided to simplify the information, so it should be a quicker read.)

Risk map tonight (Above: Severe Weather potential for southern Manitoba with severe thunderstorms a possibility in the overnight, I’m thinking that moderate risk area might expand more into Winnipeg and the red river valley areas as well as portions of eastern Manitoba.)

Tonight: A low pressure system will be sitting off to the west and the south which will be increasing the amounts of humidity from the southern states, dew point temperatures will sit in the mid to high teens which basically supplies a juicy airmass for thunderstorms to live on along with significant amounts of energy for thunderstorms to form, energy will be in the moderate to high range 2,000 to 3,000 Joules per kilogram. As that low reaches the international border and lifts north and east overnight more active weather looks likely. 

Details:

Round 1 Southwest and south central Manitoba including interlakes and Red River valley: A initial batch of thunderstorms could develop in southwestern and western Manitoba during the evening hours and early overnight which includes anywhere from Lake Manitoba west to Saskatchewan south to the American border, there’s a good chance that these will move from southwest to northeast with a chance they could enter the Red River valley into the overnight including areas from the American border north into the interlakes and including Winnipeg. If they move through they could bring large hail and heavy rainfall as well as strong winds. It’s hard to tell what will happen but if they do move through the second batch of storms may not be as severe. 

 Round 2 South central and southeastern Manitoba including the red river valley: This is when some concerns arise another batch of convection could move through the Dakota’s overnight and reach Manitoba by sunrise. The HRRR has been consistent at bringing them north through the red river valley and southeast Manitoba with weakening possible as it moves north, with the more severe parts moving through the southeast. Regardless if the MCS (Mesoscale convective system) can manage to sneak up into our area these thunderstorms could have bowing segments that would bring a possibility of wind gusts over 90km/h, with nickle size hail and larger as well as the threat of flash flooding. Tornadoes aren’t likely. 

In general a large swath of the southern half of Manitoba including the southwest , south central and southeast part of Manitoba has a risk of severe weather. Refer to the Instant Weather maps posted above, with environment Canadas map above as well. Temperatures tonight will sit around the mid to high teens with the humidity feeling more like the mid 20’s. 

Tuesday (Above: Severe Weather Threat in the morning). The initial batch of thunderstorms as mentioned will probably linger in the southeast part of Manitoba, with areas south and east of Winnipeg seeing a chance at severe weather in the morning and north and east of the city seeing a chance at thunderstorms. There could be a redevelopment of thunderstorms acrosss the south during the late morning and afternoon it’s difficult to say as there’s some disagreement on model data right now. There’s also a chance at a line of thunderstorms that could develop in southwestern Manitoba during the late morning hours into the early afternoon which may lift north and east. As for the rest of the province sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely during the afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the low to mid 20’s, with temperatures in the southwest dropping by the late afternoon into the mid teens. 

Tuesday Night: The low pressure system I mentioned earlier will move north into northern areas of Manitoba and will leave with it clearing skies and calmer conditions as we start switching over to more of a southwesterly flow. Temperatures for the period will be mild and slightly cooler with temperatures in the low teens and some areas in the high single digits. 

Wednesday: During Wednesday the low pressure system that I had mentioned will be moving into southwestern Manitoba and will move east throughout the day. Temperatures will rise into the low 20’s in the southeast part of Manitoba with temperatures in the southwest only reaching highs in the mid to high teens where cloudy skies are likely. Sunny skies are likely in the southeast. There’s a chance that during the day thunderstorms could form in the southeast part of Manitoba as the trough moves through with it, the threat for severe thunderstorms will be significantly lower than  tonight and on Tuesday but some marginal hail and heavy rainfall could be possible especially from late morning to early to late afternoon. 

Wednesday Night: Showers are likely with some periods of possibly heavier rainfall possible . Temperatures on Wednesday night should drop into the low teens with some area in the mid teens. A slight chance that some rural areas could see lows in the high single digits. 

Second half of the week: Temperatures will remain slightly below normal, as a cooler air mass sets in. Our daytime highs will feel more spring like with most places seeing temperatures in the mid to high teens on Thursday and on Friday we will see a return to the low 20’s with lows in the low teens on Thursday night and lows in the high teens on Friday Night. A sign of more significant heat and humidity looks to build in by the weekend but we’ll know more when we get closer to the second half of the week and the weekend.