Heat and Humidity Return , severe weather as well??

 Southern Manitoba get ready for the heat and humidity through this weekend. It’s gonna be a hot and muggy one , it could also potentially be a very active weekend weather wise as a ridge builds over the province. Find out how hot it will get and where the severe weather potential is possible. It’s basically the reason there’s a special weather statement in place is the combined heat expected on Saturday and Sunday. 

(Above: Extreme heat and humidity will be in place on Sunday). Highs above 30C are possible with humidex values reaching the mid to high 40’s). 

Friday Night: The heat and humidity will begin to build tonight, a low pressure system in the western Canadian prairie provinces will begin to pump a hot and humid airmass into southern portions of Manitoba. Mostly clear conditions are likely overnight. Temperatures for a majority of the region tonight. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to drop into the mid to high teens with the humidity increasing it could even feel closer to the low 20’s overnight. 

Saturday: During the morning a front will go through ahead of the system expected for the weekend, a passing shower or non severe thunderstorm may go through. Nothing major is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will soar into the mid to high 20’s, humidex values will exceed the 30C mark in southwest parts of Manitoba, with a chance of that spreading eastwards depending on how high the dew point values will be further east.  

Saturday Night: Overnight an approaching low pressure system, will move into the dakotas ahead of it a very warm southerly flow will establish itself, dew points on Sunday night in the southwest will reach the high teens to low 20’s. 

Above: Graphics are showing intense heat and humidity with the projected humidex above , showing 40C or more on Sunday. 

 Sunday: Will be the hottest day of the week a low pressure system will move into the region on Sunday ahead of it a warm front will pass through bringing in a very hot and humid airmass into the region. Temperatures are also expected to soar into the low to mid 30’s, with some areas seeing values in in the high 30’s.  Dewpoints are expected to reach the high teens to low 20’s, with a chance of some locales seeing dewpoints in the mid 20’s even the high 20’s. This means the humidex values will likely exceed the 40C mark, with the average being between 41-46C. If conditions permit they could near 50C. 

Sunday Night (Above): The attention then turns to a passing low pressure system which will move through the southwest part of Manitoba during the early evening, and the rest of the evening across the south. *This will be a all or nothing event* There’s s chance the cap could hold and nothing forms, if the capping doesn’t hold then we could be dealing with explosive thunderstorm development* The details Scenario 1: High and extreme amounts of energy over the region, Thunderstorm Convective Available Potential Energy values of (3,000 to 6,000) in some cases 7,000J/Kg. With ample shear at upper and middle levels I cannot discount the risk of Tornadoes, with supercell thunderstorms  especially in the southwest part of Manitoba into the red River valley, before a damaging wind threat and severe hail with a line of thunderstorms. This could be one of those days and evenings to watch, for severe weather. Scenario 2: If nothing forms then we’ll be dealing with humid and hot conditions going into the night with clear skies.   

Temperatures on Sunday night will drop quite a bit if thunderstorms can form and go through that soupy environment, which would drop our overnight lows into the mid to high teens and low 20’s. Versus lows in the low to mid to high 20’s and humidex values in the low 30’s. Brutal. We’ll know more by Saturday evening about this outlook so I’ll have a detailed post for Sunday tomorrow evening . 

First half of the week: There’s still some uncertainty in the timing of the fronts but if it goes as predicted, there could be a potentially stormy day on Monday with a threat for severe weather again before cooler weather arrives for the second half of the first part of the work week. Temperatures on Monday will rise into the mid to high 20’s and low 30’s before a front goes through and cools off the temperatures  into the high teens to low 20’s.