Warm Weather leads to Thunderstorm potential. Severe weather possible.

 Hello everyone. I have finally gotten back to being online and I will be trying my best to cover the active weather over the next 24-72 hours and longer. I’ll be doing a brief but quick update on the weather for the this weekend. Here it goes… Much of Southern Manitoba will be in for some unsettled weather this weekend and the risk for severe weather will also increase along with the heat and humidity. Find out where and when the worst of the weather can be expected in this latest blog. 🙏🏻. 

Saturday: The day will start sunny, there will be a possibility of some cloud cover in the early morning hours throughout the afternoon with clearing gradually across from west to east as a low pressure system approaches. Capping fortunately will prevent storms from developing until later on. There will also be a risk for showers and pop up thunderstorms as the afternoon hours roll in with a slightly unstable airmass. Severe weather isn’t expected however the chance of some heavy downpours are possible. During the day temperatures will soar into the low 20’s to mid 20’s. 

Saturday Night: Overnight into Sunday an approaching low pressure system will drag in a occluded front which will be in the eastern part of Manitoba by morning. There’s a possibility overnight that there will be a swath of 1,000 CAPE (Storm Energy) that develops mainly in the Red River Valley and south of lake Manitoba to eastern Manitoba. As this front passes there will be a small chance of showers and thunderstorms that move through with Winnipeg and the red river valley at risk for thunderstorms. There will be a risk some of them could briefly become severe. I’m thinking the threat area will generally be from Carberry up to Gladstone down to the American border east to the Ontario border. Temperatures on Saturday night should drop into the low to mid teens with temperatures averaging our normal overnight lows. 

Sunday: This is when the forecast gets a little complicated and when I mean complicated it does get difficult. During the morning a possibility of showers and thunderstorms exist then partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are possible. Another low pressure system will move into our area bringing a threat for thunderstorms and ahead of it dewpoints will soar into the mid to high teens with temperatures in the high teens in the southeast to the low 20’s to mid 20’s in the red river valley to southwestern Manitoba. The threat for thunderstorms is conditional as cloud cover from morning showers and thunderstorms may inhibit daytime heating especially in the southeast. If any clearing takes place severe weather risk will increase substantially from what is expected, especially if temperatures rise into the mid 20’s. A general 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg of CAPE can be expected in the southwest to the red river valley, with lesser values of 700J/Kg to 900J/Kg in the southeast. 

Slight severe weather Risk area southwestern Manitoba, Red River Valley, Pembina Valley. Lower risk with general thunderstorms for the parklands and the interlakes regions.

Regardless I’m expecting thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and early evening mainly scattered in nature and a slight risk for a severe weather threat to tomorrow with the risk of marginal to large hail, heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts, tornadoes are not likely as previously thought. The risk for severe weather will exist from southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley, with the highest chances along the Canadian border. There’s a chance that the severe weather could stay stateside. Again if it gets into the low 20’s instead of the high teens in the southeast part of Manitoba severe weather will exist there as well. I’m expecting any thunderstorms that develop to travel east with them dying out as the sun sets. Again temperatures in the high teens to low to mid twenties are possible. 

Sunday Night: There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the evening before clearing skies takes over, with partly cloudy skies overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens, with the chance some areas over lake Manitoba will drop to around 10C. 

Next week: Attention will turn to a developing low pressure system that could bring substantial amounts of rainfall as well as multiple rounds of thunderstorms. It’s too early to nail down the full details of this system, as model data is still yet to come in on this event. Temperatures however will soar into the mid to high 20’s during this period with overnight lows in the mid to high teens. With cooler weather possible on Tuesday with highs in the high teens and low 20’s.