Heat and humidity arrives with possible severe weather risk.

 I know I’m a little bit late for a weekend blog but I still have some interesting news about the weather ahead his weekend will likely end up being hot , humid and stormy with the potential chance for severe thunderstorms. You can thank it to a trough of low pressure moving into the region. Find out where and when the most active weather is expected; and how warm it will get this weekend. Also there will be some information on the week ahead too. 

Tonight: Expect mostly calm weather conditions as we sit on the eastern edge of high pressure, a few clouds are possible in the extreme southern sections of the province with the most of the active weather occurring in Alberta. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens for a majority of the region. 

Saturday: A hot and sunny day is expected during the day on Saturday ahead of a area of low pressure, dew point temperatures will rise into the high teens to the low 20’s which will likely increase the humidity. Temperatures on the day Saturday will likely rise into the mid to high 20’s, with temperatures in the low 30’s possible along and south of the trans Canada highway. There is a chance for some pop up showers and thunderstorms during the day but another chance of them are expected during the evening near the Saskatchewan border. 

Saturday Night: It appears that a frontal system will be approaching the region overnight into Sunday morning, a frontal system will be moving into southern Manitoba from the north. Areas in the interlakes and the parklands have a risk for thunderstorms in the overnight period. Some of them may be strong but if they do become severe it’ll end up being brief. Areas in the southwestern part of Manitoba and the red river valley and south east Manitoba won’t see anything until morning. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens for the night on Saturday into Sunday. 

Sunday Above: A low pressure system will move into the area during the morning hours, with a large area of instability likely ahead of it. With MUCAPES upwards of 2,000 to 2,500J/Kg. There’s a good chance of strong thunderstorms or severe thunderstorms during the morning hours into the early afternoon in the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. Later in the day clearing will likely take place with a chance for some weak showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of the day. Sunday temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s before dropping into the low to mid 20’s for the latter half of the day. Possibly lower. 

Sunday Night: Clear weather is likely for the night with some cloud cover expected,  overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens for the night. 

The week ahead: Much of the region will see sunny skies with a chance for showers or thunderstorms on a few days during the week, possibly around Wednesday. Temperatures in the upper teens for overnight lows are likely with high temperatures in the middle to upper 20’s or low 30’s especially on Tuesday as more heat builds in from the west. 

Seasonal and Unsettled weather ahead, calmer weather to follow.

Well it looks like southern Manitoba is in store for some unsettled weather and it doesn’t look as significant as the last time, a cold front will be draped through southern Manitoba with a low pressure system in central Manitoba this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected. This will begin the transition to a slightly cooler and unsettled but brief period of weather. How cold will it get ?? How long will it last read on to find out more. 

Tonight: A cold front will move through a slightly unstable airmass, this early evening already a broad area of showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed in southwestern Manitoba which will move into south central Manitoba early to mid evening. There’s a risk of some strong to sub severe storms in some regions especially southwest regions into the parklands. Thunderstorms will clear late evening, and overnight especially in the southeast. Mainly clear skies are likely in the southwest part of Manitoba after midnight. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens, cooler in the southwest and higher in the southeast. 

Tuesday: We will be on the backside of the low pressure system on Tuesday, behind it a northwesterly flow will bring in a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms especially over southeastern Manitoba, red river valley, into the interlakes and the parklands. If there’s no storms expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures on the day will rise into the low to mid 20’s. 

Tuesday Night: A generally calm night is expected on Tuesday night as a northwesterly flow develops,  temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens in much of the region. I’m not too concerned with any significant weather for the region. 

Wednesday: Another unsettled day is possible as a trough of low pressure is expected to move south with it a large area of showers and or thunderstorms are possible in the interlakes, parklands all of southern Manitoba. A general 5 to 15mm is possible. Severe weather however isn’t expected. Daytime high temperatures will be in the high teens to low 20’s with the bulk of the warmth along the American border. Daytime high temperatures will be reached around noon before a drop in temperatures is expected around 12-2pm. There may be a chance for marginally severe hail but, mostly heavy downpours are expected.  

Wednesday Night: Some remaining showers are possible in eastern Manitoba before clearing later on, except areas of eastern Manitoba where cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will likely end up dropping let’s say to fall like unfortunately. Overnight lows in the west will sink down to the high single digits to low teens. 

Second half of the week: The warmer weather returns during the second half of the week, with temperatures in the low 20’s on Thursday before values reach the mid to high 20’s for the latter half of the week. Overnight lows are also forecast to be in the low to mid teens on Thursday night before returning to high teens on Friday. 

Seasonal Weather turning unsettled for the weekend

 Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing a calm second half of the week, thanks to high pressure settling over our area. A possibly unsettled weather pattern is on the way for the weekend. Find out where and when showers and thunderstorms can be expected, and what to expect temperature wise. 

Friday Temperature Outlook (Above) : Expect a fairly nice day, with a few clouds during the day time. A low pressure system will be sitting over Saskatchewan during the day on Friday, ahead of it temperatures are expected to soar into the mid to high 20’s. Areas further north from highway 1 north into the inter lakes can expect high temperatures to be in the high teens to low 20’s. 

Friday Night: This is when it gets interesting a low pressure system is expected to move into southern sections of Manitoba, ahead of it a broad area of CAPE from 1,500 to 2,000J/Kg will present itself over southwestern sections of Manitoba by early evening. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in western Manitoba before spreading east into the red river valley regions in the mid evening. With lower CAPE in place the risk for severe weather is lower but still present. However the only model right now that is an outlier appears to be the HRRR which is suggesting a dangerous wind event in a line of severe thunderstorms that may target southwestern Manitoba into the Red River Valley or moving southeast into North Dakota. This is something that is over 24 hours away from, and we’ll know more about model consensus tomorrow morning or afternoon. Temperatures on Friday night appear to drop into the mid to high teens for a majority of the region, except low teens in the interlakes. 

Saturday (Above): Expect thunderstorms or showers to clear the region with another resurgence of showers or weak thunderstorms in the afternoon. A trough of low pressure will also be east of Manitoba by the afternoon so a northwesterly flow will be aloft. Temperatures in the inter lakes are expected to be in the high teens in the inter lakes region, with highs in the low to mid 20’s in the southern half of Manitoba. 

Saturday Night: Clearing conditions are likely with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies expected, temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the low teens to mid teens. 

Sunday: Some of the nicest weather is likely on this day with high pressure building in. Temperatures slightly below average with most places seeing a slight chance for showers. Weather wise mainly only a mix of sun and cloud is likely. Temperatures will rise into the high teens and low 20’s. 

Sunday Night: More of the same is expected, some increasing clouds are possible during the evening to overnight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba as another frontal system approaches. It’s way too early to tell if these will be severe. We will know more on Sunday. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens, with the exception of the southern red river valley seeing lows in the 10C mark. 

First half of the week: Warmer and milder weather is likely for the first half of the week, hotter and more humid conditions are possible as dewpoints rise into the mid to high teens to low 20’s. All on the northern end of a ridge and a trough will slide through that , with an increasing risk of severe weather. 

-Mike 

Ending Heatwave to lead to Showers and Thunderstorms with Severe Weather Possible

 Much of southern Manitoba has experienced a stretch of hot and humid weather, Winnipeg also broke a all time high dew point temperature record yesterday. Maxed out at 26.3 breaking the old record of 26.1 in July 1966 according to Scott on Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottdkehler/status/1548827555012255744?s=21&t=czBbIfoqpLAUlWtzYS0rXg This extreme heat also resulted in storms with funnel clouds near St Francois Xavier yesterday evening. https://twitter.com/michaelnowak123/status/1548818468534947840?s=21&t=czBbIfoqpLAUlWtzYS0rXg Regardless this pattern looks to change as a low pressure system moves through tonight into tomorrow. This blog will be brief however, as I’m quite tired after a long day. 

Tonight (Above): A low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba from Saskatchewan, ahead of it a very unstable airmass in place will contribute to a batch of severe possibly dangerous thunderstorms to move into southern Manitoba impacting mainly western Manitoba. These thunderstorms will have the potential for rainfall in excess of 50mm or more, torrential downpours, wind gusts from 70 to 100km/h, very large hail.  Flash flooding is possible with any thunderstorm that moves into the already hot and humid airmass. Temperatures tonight will drop into the high teens in the southwest Manitoba, with lows remaining in the low 20’s in southeastern Manitoba.  

Tuesday (Above): This is when the main concerns for a line of severe thunderstorms in south central Manitoba are highest, by pre dawn winds could exceed 80km/h with 100km/h possible in bowing segments (where a bow or curve on radar appears). Best chance for severe storms in Winnipeg and the red river valley appear to be in the 5-10am period. There is also a high risk for large hail and heavy rainfall in excess of 50 with upwards to 75mm. The sun could come out after the main batch of storms clear, before later in the day another threat of thunderstorms will redevelop mainly targeting southeast Manitoba and the south central parts of Manitoba. The threat for flash flooding, large hail,  will develop as these storms look to sit over the same area for a large amount of time as they move southeast with the low itself. 

 Latest model data is hinting at well over 75 to 100 mm of rain in south central and southeastern Manitoba once all is said and done. Thunderstorms should clear on Tuesday evening.  These will be significant rains that could lead to worsening overland flooding and high water flows. 

Tuesday Night: Clearing will occur behind the system and temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens. As a northwesterly flow develops. 

Wednesday: Hot and sunny weather can be expected, with drier weather likely on Wednesday with highs in the mid to high 20’s. 

Extreme Heat and Humidity for the weekend, Storms also possible.

 Hello everyone, I know I’m a bit late on your weekend forecast I apologize for that. I volunteered at the fringe festival yesterday so I had no time to create a weather outlook. I’ll be back volunteering during the week. Anyways let’s get to the weekend outlook, as you know a heat warning is in place for all of Manitoba except eastern portions of Manitoba, an upper level ridge continues to sit over the northern portions of the plains and over southern Manitoba. This heat dome will be situated just enough south that low pressure systems will be able to ride over top of that dome, that could impact southern sections of Manitoba. Find out what to expect weather wise , and how long this heat will last below.

Saturday: Sunny skies are expected into the later half of the day today. Today and Sunday will be the hottest days of the weekend, temperatures by this evening will have soared into the high 20’s to low 30’s on top of that the humidex will make it feel like the low to mid 30’s. In some locations the humidex could feel like the high 30’s.  The hottest of the weather is expected in the southwest part of Manitoba.  

Saturday Night: Not much in the way of relief for the heat is expected for tonight as a strong southerly flow remains in place bringing in very humid conditions. There will be a chance that an area of thunderstorms from Saskatchewan overnight could drift in and affect primarily the interlakes and the central parts of Manitoba. The severe weather risk would be primarily over lake Winnipeg, with isolated severe thunderstorms possible overnight as a warm front moves through. Overnight lows will be quite mild with most models agreeing on overnight lows tonight in the high teens to the low to mid 20’s. 

Top: NAM 12Z Energy Helicity Index, brighter yellow and orange indicate areas of potential supercell development. Middle: NAM12Z CAPE shows extreme instability in place by mid afternoon, with 5,000J/Kg possible in some areas. Bottom: SKEW T Graph detailing severe potential for areas north of and around Winnipeg on Sunday afternoon. 

Sunday: This is when the heat really kicks in and causes not only higher humidex readings but the dewpoints will jump significantly making it feel like Mexico over our area. Temperatures are expected to soar into the low to mid 30’s over southern portions all the way into the parklands and the interlakes region, dewpoints will rise into the low 20’s in the southwest early in the day before dropping to the mid to high teens. There is a chance that humidity could stay further west during the day according to the RAP but it’s not picking up on the trough that will move in during the afternoon that will divert the humidity eastwards. Areas further east however in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba may see those higher dewpoints in the low to mid 20’s which will not only amp up the humidex to the low to mid 40’s but it will also fuel severe weather potential heading into the evening. T Why? A trough will be moving into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba during the latter half of the day, and with the combined humidity and CAPE levels from 2,500 to 5,000J/Kg or 6,000J/Kg. Shear looks strong enough to support severe thunderstorm organization and supercell thunderstorms as a possibility and capping looks nonexistent surprisingly. This threat is conditional however, as other models hint at storms happening in the interlakes only so will have to watch for any alerts that get issued. The consensus for main areas of concern for severe thunderstorms tomorrow is from Portage La Prairie south to the American border north into the Lake Manitoba area east into Gimli and east/southeast into the Whiteshell regions including all of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Storms that form could become severe quite quickly, with toonie to golf ball to baseball size hail possible. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Monitor for severe weather alerts that get posted tomorrow. 

(Above: Thunderstorms look to possibly impact western Manitoba into the red river valley overnight into Monday, will watch for any changes to this). 

Sunday night: Thunderstorms look to clear the region by the evening the trough should be in Ontario by the time overnight comes. However a cold front will move into that hot and humid airmass overnight, IF thunderstorms don’t develop during the day time there will be plentiful instability left overnight with around 2,000 to 4,000J/Kg of CAPE. Computer models are agreeing on a area of thunderstorms forming in eastern Saskatchewan moving east southeast overnight. These thunderstorms may have a potential to have all modes of severe weather. Right now areas in western Manitoba through the parklands and interlakes into the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba are at risk mostly. If nothing happens expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies and mild conditions as the front passes. We will know more during the day on Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the high teens to low 20’s, with initial temperatures near midnight in the low to mid 20’s before the cold front moves through. 

Early Next Week: Another low pressure system will move in knocking down our temperatures into the mid to high 20’s and high teens for overnight lows with an increasingly unsettled pattern possible. Showers and thunderstorms will likely start off the week, there’s some consensus there could be significant rainfall that occurs with this. Will watch as this could lead to flash flooding potential. Will monitor this for you all. Cooler weather looks like for Tuesday and Wednesday back down to near or slightly below average temperatures. 

Heat and Humidity briefly return , thunderstorms and Severe Weather Possible.

 Much of our region has had plentiful amounts of heat and humidity, thunderstorms have also been a regular occurrence as low pressure systems have moved through. On Saturday there was a supercell thunderstorm that developed north of Winnipeg, prompting tornado warnings, I managed to capture this on highway 1 east of Winnipeg facing NW towards stonewall on my way home with my uncle from Steinbach. (Photo below). Also a capture from Aaron Jayjacks twitter while he was chasing the supercell, link here: https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1546143257867984898?s=21&t=UK4z701tXJ745NRB1hyHHQ

Severe weather followed the following day as well. Cooler and more seasonal weather has arrived, that is expected to change however. Hotter and more humid conditions is expected over the next few days. Find out about your day on Wednesday through the weekend in this blog.

 

Wednesday : A high pressure system will be building in on the day Wednesday, warm and mild temperatures are expected with sunshine. There will be a mix of sun and clouds as well. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, with some areas seeing highs closer to 30C especially in western Manitoba. 

Wednesday night: Overnight an area of increasing clouds is expected as a cold front and low pressure system moves into southeastern Saskatchewan, the system will then move into southern Manitoba into the morning hours. There will be chances at showers in the early morning hours with some weak thunderstorms possible especially near the Saskatchewan border. Temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the upper teens, areas around lake Winnipeg and Manitoba may see lows closer to 15C. 

Thursday: This is when the forecast gets interesting, a low pressure system approaching from the eastern half of Manitoba is expected to move into southern Manitoba during the day on Thursday. Models are agreeing in on the consensus for weather tomorrow. Most models are bringing in area of showers from all of western Manitoba into the parklands during the morning with that area developing into possible thunderstorms during the early afternoon by the time it reaches the red river valley and inter lakes. Later in the day the Severe weather risk as the front moves through will depend on the overall coverage and length of time these showers and storms take to clear, if they move in, at all. Models are all over the place, yes. Later in the day would be lower, earlier in the day may amplify that risk. Regardless clearing will likely take place for the early to mid afternoon. Depending on how long these take to clear out, temperatures might not be able to reach there full daytime high potential until by around 6pm. Regardless temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s with a majority of the region seeing very muggy weather with dewpoints between 16 to 21C, with the highest values centered over the red river valley and west of the city of Winnipeg in the pembina valley south of lake Manitoba mainly, that will move east with the front into the southeast by evening. There will be a conditional risk of severe weather in southwest and south central, interlakes and eastern Manitoba as a frontal system will move into a potentially soupy airmass capping may inhibit storms however. Looking at the dynamics CAPE will be in excess of 1,000 to 2,500 by evening. Depending on overall high shear placement there may be enough Helicity to allow for thunderstorm organization and tornadic development a majority of the high shear levels look to be in the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. So overall once initial showers and thunderstorms move out another chance at possibly severe weather will come to southern sections of Manitoba. With high humidity upwards of 25-50mm or more is possible, hail up to the size of toonies or larger, wind gusts possibly up to 90km/h, and a tornado or 2 can’t be ruled out especially in the early evening.

Thursday Night: Once the frontal system moves out of our soupy airmass, I expect a gradual clearing by the evening hours. There may be a chance at overcast conditions developing after midnight with the frontal passage. I expect overnight lows on Thursday night to drop into the mid to high teens, with the areas seeing cloudy skies in the southwest and south central areas dropping into the mid teens. 

Friday: An area of high pressure will move in and allow for calmer and more stable weather over the prairie provinces, it’s honestly needed. This is one of the fewest blog posts that I have written that has nice weather in store, I drove out into southern Manitoba with my uncle on Saturday and there is a lot of corn growing with canola. So we don’t need a lot of rain, what tends to happen is that too much rain can prevent proper crops from developing. Also the better corn crops provide that atmosphere with the juice needed for severe weather in the summer. Regardless, I’m expecting a slight chance for some showers and some strong thunderstorms to occur in very isolated sections as CAPE values may climb into the low 1,000 to 1,500 range in western Manitoba. Temperatures will still rise into the mid to high 20’s with a few areas rising into the low 30’s especially southwestern Manitoba. 

Friday Night: A low pressure system in Saskatchewan may bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms into western sections of Manitoba by the evening into the overnight hours. There will also be very mild conditions in place, overnight lows will be hovering in the mid to high teens, dewpoints close to 20C so it’s possible that the humidity may get near 100% at times. 

The weekend: Increasing amounts of heat and humidity looks likely for the weekend, with dewpoints soaring into the high teens to low 20’s with some areas possibly seeing them rise into the mid 20’s. Temperatures will also rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s and even mid 30’s on Sunday with the overnight lows only in the high teens to mid 20’s. The likely humidex surpassing 40C on both days. Will also need to watch for severe weather on the weekend with low pressure systems nearby or possibly moving through Manitoba we will need to keep an eye on the skies. 

-Mike McGregor 

Heat and Humidity return, with increasing thunderstorm chances. High Risk of Severe Weather Possible for Saturday

 Southern sections of Manitoba can expect a hot and humid weekend ahead, an approaching low pressure system will draw a humid airmass up from the Gulf of Mexico. This system will be the culprit for increasing humidity levels and higher temperatures. The risk for severe weather will also increase. This unsettled pattern is expected to continue into the weekend. Read on to Find out more about the increasing severe weather risk and the heat expected. 

Friday Night: Tonight fairly calm conditions are expected ahead of the low pressure system. Winds will be light out of the south to southwest, an area of showers and weak thunderstorms are likely to occur in southwestern Manitoba by early morning. Severe weather however doesn’t look likely. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens. 

(Above) Severe weather outlook map for the day on Saturday. High risk of severe weather during the day into the evening.

Saturday: This is when the forecast gets interesting, a low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba by the later afternoon. Some left over showers will move through in the morning hours with some left over cloud cover. Depending on clearing, sufficient heating may be inhibited. Also this severe weather outlook is conditional. Regardless Increasing humidity will come into the region by the afternoon, with dew points rising into the high teens to low 20’s. Possibility of dew points rising to 25C. Temperatures will rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s, with the hottest of the weather happening in the southwest. Temperatures might rise past 30C in the south central part of Manitoba but that chance is lower. Humidex values will feel close to the mid to high 30’s. The main concern comes later in the day with CAPE (Thunderstorm Energy) from 2,000J/Kg upwards to 4,500J/Kg in areas of western Manitoba by early evening. The potential exists for capping to be in place during the day before a general weakening by mid to late afternoon. An approaching warm front will be the trigger for thunderstorms, and there’s a good chance there will be some isolated severe thunderstorms by the late afternoon and evening. Right now models are all over the place on where they will pop, but if they do they will become severe quite quickly. Environment Canada has southern Manitoba in a moderate to high risk area for severe weather on Saturday. If thunderstorms develop they will likely produce very large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, flooding rains and the potential for a tornado or 2. The best threat area for that is in the red river valley, into western Manitoba. 

Saturday Night: Any thunderstorms left over on Sunday evening that develop or form will be severe,, heading late into Saturday night and early Sunday morning a complex of thunderstorms will develop in Saskatchewan and or Montana and will likely impact southern Manitoba by the early morning hours. These thunderstorms could be severe it’s all dependant on how much CAPE will be in place by morning. Again I will not know more until later on the day Saturday when models verify. Which is why I will likely update on Manitoba weather centre, during the day. Temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the high teens to low 20’s. 

Sunday: Expect possible thunderstorms in the morning hours, then gradual clearing by the afternoon as the cold front moves into northern Ontario. Temperatures will drop significantly with most of the region seeing highs in the high teens and low 20’s. Theres a possibility that if cloud clears out sooner than predicted by the NAM that the area will see highs in the low to mid 20’s. With high 20’s possible in only a few locales. 

Sunday Night: An area of showers or thunderstorms may move into southwestern sections of Manitoba with the possibility that extreme southwestern areas of the region may see some strong thunderstorms in the early evening hours. The possibility exists that there will be showers in the south western and south central regions in the morning hours on Monday. Sunday night overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens. 

First half of the week: Showers and thunderstorms look possible to start off the week, with another cold front moving southwards. Calmer weather arrives afterwards as high pressure builds in with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 20’s and overnight lows in the low teens to mid teens. A ridge of high pressure will build in allowing our temperatures to reach the high 20’s by mid week. 

Weather Warming Up, increasing thunderstorm Risk.

It’s been a while since I did a blog post, I took the end of the week off along with Canada day as it gave me a chance to calm down and get my mind set on the coming summer. I hope you all had a great Canada day holiday weekend. Regardless the first half of the week looks to be a fairly calm pattern, high pressure will sit over the Canadian prairie provinces keeping the weather stable. However a change in the weather pattern is possible mid week with more unsettled weather possible by Wednesday. Read on to find out about the outlook for the next few days with details into Thursday. The next blog will be made available on Thursday evening for the weekend. 

Warmer weather on the way for Wednesday with some of the warmest weather we have seen since last week. 

Tonight: A chance of showers are likely as remnants of a low pressure system move out of Manitoba into Ontario, mainly cloudy skies are likely into the overnight hours. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday: Cloudy to partly cloudy skies are expected during the day on Tuesday, temperatures in the low to mid 20’s are possible later in the day after clearing fills in. Partly cloudy skies are likely by late afternoon as most of the cloudy conditions move into North Dakota later in the day. It’s expected that mainly areas over lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg may only see highs in the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy to Clear skies are expected during the mid evening before increasing clouds move in overnight ahead of another low pressure system approaches the region as it enters southeast Saskatchewan by early morning. Temperatures on Tuesday night will only reach the high teens, with some areas dropping closer to 15C. Overall average overnight low temperatures.

Wednesday: The forecast gets a little more interesting on Wednesday, a low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba. Temperatures ahead of this system will rise into the mid to high 20’s with a possibility of some areas reaching close to 30C. Moisture will not be lacking much as dew points (the temperature at which relative humidity is 100% if reached by the actual temperature, where dew forms) will be in the mid to high teens. An approaching cold front or trough will be the focus for thunderstorm development later in the afternoon, MUCAPES (Thunderstorm Energy) in Joules will reach 1,000 to 1,500 or 2,000J/Kg. It’s possible that thunderstorms may initiate in the latter half of the day due to possible capping if they do they could possibly become severe. The latest NAM has a potential for thunderstorms to develop along a west to east line from the parklands into the inter lakes and eastern Manitoba before they drift southwards during the evening. We will know more by the day on Tuesday and the morning on Wednesday about potential threat areas. If thunderstorms don’t form expect mainly sunny and humid conditions. 

Wednesday Night: Most of the showers and thunderstorms should clear out of the region, if they occur. Clear conditions are expected before increasing clouds by the early morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the high teens on Wednesday night. 

Thursday should see much of the same with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, temperatures will likely rise into the high teens in the southwest with low 20’s in the southeast. Cloudy to partly cloudy skies are possible on Thursday Night with temperatures in the low teens in the southwest and lows in the mid to high teens in the southeast.

The weekend: Hotter and more unsettled weather is possible come the weekend with a chance at more thunderstorms. There’s a probability we could get more than 25mm of rain come the weekend. We’ll keep an eye on that for you.