Happy Canada Day Long Weekend!!! Warm and above seasonal temperatures, severe thunderstorm threat returns.

Well, we have finally made it into the canada day long weekend, welcome to your long weekend weather update. Latest data that I have gone through is showing a shift to a hot and potentially humid weekend. There will also be calm weather on Saturday before a shift into another threat of severe weather over the canadian prairie provinces. The current setup is showing high pressure in eastern Canada, behind that last storm system that impacted Ontario another frontal system is slated to impact the canadian prairies with another round of heat, humidity and severe weather possible. Find out more what that means for us, during this weekends blog.

( A snapshot of the hot weather expected for Sunday with another bout of severe weather a possibility.)

Saturday: During the day saturday sunny skies are likely as remnants of high pressure sit over our region, humidity will be manageable with dewpoints at the highest reaching the mid to high teens. Temperatures however will soar into the high 20's and low 30's with most of the parklands, eastern Manitoba and the western half of Manitoba seeing highs a few degrees below 30C. Humidex values may however reach the upper 30's if your area sees dewpoints in the high teens, which would be southwestern Manitoba mainly. 

Saturday Night: There is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in southwestern Manitoba along the warm front which may then move southeast into North Dakota, there is very low confidence with this at this point in time. However given the instability in place at that point in time, there may be a chance as far east as the red river valley for isolated thunderstorms. Some of them may be severe however if nothing develops expect a clear and calm overnight. Overnight lows will be mild in the southeast with lows in the low 20's, a chance that winnipeg and areas with the concrete may see warmer values (urban areas). Areas in southwestern Manitoba based on the NAM model may be seeing lows in the high teens. 

Sunday: The day on Sunday, will end up being an interesting weather day. I am very skeptical this far out on the accuracy of the models however given the consistency of the weather maps that I have seen it looks like we will have another round of possible severe weather. A cold front will move into southern sections of Manitoba ahead of dewpoints in the high teens and low 20's. Temperatures will rise into the high 20's to low 30's and some areas may get as warm as the mid 30's. I am thinking that this may push our humidex values into the mid 30's to high 30's and maybe as warm as the mid 40's if the dewpoints can get high enough. Look at the above graphic showing that instability (CAPE) values on Sunday exceeding 3,000J/Kg, I also looked through the shear and the supercell composite values. If we get storms there is a likelihood they will become severe quite quickly, with hail possibly as large as 2-5cm, flooding rains and the threat of a few tornadoes as a possibility as conditions may be present for them on Sunday. Current thoughts are that the risk area may extend from western Manitoba, early in the afternoon extending into the interlakes and the red river valley , eastern Manitoba. Regardless supercell thunderstorms in discrete cells may occur at first and then a evolution into a bow echo or squall line. If that doesnt happen scattered severe thunderstorms like last time may develop. We will know more on the day of the event happening. 

Sunday Night: Clearing will likely occur and calmer drier air behind the cold front. Temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid teens, with some areas in the western half of Manitoba in the low teens. Some residual cloudcover or fog is possible if some areas see humidity near 100%. 

The Week Ahead: Monday and the canada Day Holiday will likely be sunny and mild with temperatures in the mid to high 20's a possibility. and overnight lows in the mid to high teens. There also is a good chance that most of the active weather will move through North Dakota. The weather pattern will be changeable as we head well into the second half of the week. We'll know more by that time. Long range models get iffy. 

Have a Happy Canada day weekend!!!!

Showers and Thunderstorms likely, unsettled weather ahead for the week ahead.

 Southern Manitoba, will be under the influence of another area of low pressure over the coming days. There is also an increased risk of thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms as well. We will be entering an unsettled pattern over the coming days with temperatures in the seasonal to slightly above seasonal range. Find out more in todays blog..

Monday: Looking ahead today much of southern Manitoba will be under sunny skies, there may be some local haze. However it looks like most of the smoke will move into eastern Canada, which we experienced yesterday. There will be a trough of low pressure sitting over the parklands today, with low shear values and CAPE of 1,000 to 2,500J/Kg there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms later today along a line from Yorkton to the south shore of Lake Manitoba including all of western Manitoba. There’s also a good chance that storms fire in eastern Saskatchewan or over the parklands and then move into the western red River valley of Manitoba by sunset. These storms will likely be isolated to scattered in nature, some low topped supercells are possible. There is a risk for hail 3-4cm in diameter, 90km/h wind gusts and as normal heavy amounts of rain and frequent lightning. There may be a brief period for landspouts. Temperatures today will more than likely rise into the mid to high 20’s today with a lot of areas of southern Manitoba seeing humidex values in the mid 30’s. Tonight: Thunderstorms will likely clear the region with weakening expected after the 9pm hour. Also looks as if temperatures are gonna only drop into the high teens tonight for overnight lows. 

Tuesday: Looks like another round of severe weather is possible, heading into the afternoon hours again there will be again another chance for severe thunderstorms to develop. The same frontal system will likely be moving through southern Manitoba and the interlakes. Best chances for severe thunderstorms include Winnipeg and the parklands. There’s a risk for CAPE values again to exceed over 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg. Scattered thunderstorms are once again likely with the threat of 2-3cm hail, strong winds, and the risk of tornadoes a possible threat. Temperatures will likely rise into the mid to high 20’s, except for areas of the interlakes where thunderstorms may initiate earlier with temperatures in the low 20’s are possible. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms may persist well into the early overnight hours with the risk of severe thunderstorms. However the threat will ease by the overnight time frame. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens overnight. 

Wednesday: More instability is present so a risk of severe weather is once again possible, however the best risk for that is likely south of the border as most of the instability is highest there.  Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the mid 20’s. 

Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return. Severe weather also makes a return.

 Southern Manitoba, will experience a very hot and humid airmass over the next few days we will be sitting over a very strong southwest flow as a ridge of high pressure sits off to the east in Ontario. Given the favourable upper pattern much of the region here will see a threat for severe thunderstorms as an amplified trough sits on the west coast and low pressure systems sit over our area. There will be concerns as this pattern develops, there is the potential for heat and humidity with severe weather and tornado threats. 

Monday early evening (Above): Today: mA complex weather situation will be working out today, a low pressure system sitting over southwestern Manitoba will increase the risk for severe weather as a cold front sits over the western half of Manitoba. Temperatures will rise into the high 20's and low 30's, dewpoint temperatures will also be a lot higher than the average lately with high values reaching the high teens and low 20's. There is a concern that because shear will be in the 50-60knots range that a tornado or 2 could happen. Instability will also be in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg CAPE range which increases the prospects that thunderstorms will develop. Overall there is a risk later in the to mid evening today for isolated to scattered supercell thunderstorms to develop with the risk for winds over 100km/h, golf ball to soft ball size hail, and heavy rain over 50mm likely. The best threat areas right now appear to be from the Saskatchewan Border east to Shilo or just west of MacGregor along a north south line from the North Dakota border to the northern parklands by Winnipegosis. After storms form there will be upscale growth into clusters or a MCS which will move north and may provide a risk for tornadoes after sunset into the early overnight hours. 

Monday Night (Above simulated radar images): Storms are once again forecast for the overnight period as another upper wave moves in from North Dakota, which will allow a mesoscale convective system to develop in western North Dakota. This same complex will move through southern Manitoba and it has an opportunity of bringing heavy rainfall in excess of 50-75mm, hail up to golf ball size wind gusts over 100km/h max could be as high as 120km/h this would be a result of bowing segments along the main line. There would also be a risk for a tornado or 2 especially earlier in the night in southwestern Manitoba. Main points are that this system will move from the southwest to northeast and move from the corner of the Melita and Coulter areas northeast into lake Manitoba and portage La prairie areas into the inter lakes and the red River valley. I have seen a few model runs bring it through the red River valley as far south as Morris. If it doesn’t hit the red River valley it has a higher chance of moving into the interlakes as it follows the LLJ or low level jet. Temperatures tonight will drop into the high teens and in the southeast ahead of the front most likely low 20’s are a strong possibility. 

Tuesday (Above): Is going to be one of those days you will definitely have to watch for; for severe weather (Threat map from EC above). This threat is going to be considered conditional as it’s all dependent on the convection from last night. If convection can clear in time and allow for sufficient heating then storms will also be a higher probability of being significant, also there could be outflow boundaries leftover from the storms during the night on Monday night and instability may be lower than expected. Regardless if these factors don’t play in then we can expect things to get wild tomorrow afternoon. I’m looking over model data for this event and dew point temperatures will more than likely rise into the low 20’s, and high teens across the south part of Manitoba. I am seeing temperatures rise into the high twenties and low to mid 30’s hotter in the southeast ahead of the front. Of concern will be a cold front sitting over the southern part of Manitoba which will provide a focus area for severe thunderstorm development. Based on what I’m seeing CAPE values will be over 3,000J/Kg and the EHI values are well within an area I would have concerns for supercell and tornado development. Overall during the latter half of the day there will be thunderstorms developing along a line from Pilot Mound to the Winnipeg region, moving into the interlakes and down into central North Dakota. These storms will move east southeast with initial threats of tornadoes, large hail up to Golf ball or larger  , damaging winds in excess of 100km/h. These storms will move into the southeast part of Manitoba during the evening hours.  We will know more as new model data comes in. Regardless rain and severe thunderstorms remain possible tomorrow. You can read up about the threat areas, from EC right here: https://umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/conv_otlk/ 

You can learn more about the convection values I used here: https://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Tuesday Night: Remaining convection from the storms earlier remain possible, and they will leave the province or weaken by 10pm-12am. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop once again into the low 20’s in southeast Manitoba as far east as Portage La Prairie with lows westwards in the high teens. 

Wednesday: Another unsettled day is in store across southern Manitoba this time for south central and southeast Manitoba, a chance for early afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible with a threat for some of them to become severe. The threat will then shift into eastern Manitoba into the afternoon as the front cuts through however this front again remains stationary so the threat for thunderstorms may continue in the red River valley towards the evening hours. Scattered thunderstorms are more than likely than organized severe weather. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the high 20’s in the south central and south east before dropping into the mid 20’s during the day. 

Wednesday Night: Another chance at convection moving into the red River valley and southeast part of Manitoba remains likely, possibly in the form of a MCS or thunderstorm complex which would bring a risk for damaging winds, hail and flooding rains. Details on this are still being worked out but we will know more as the data comes in through the next 12-24 hour period. Temperatures on Wednesday night will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Second half of the week: Calmer weather is in store as high pressure moves in which allows a stable airmass to return. Temperatures for the period will more than likely return to more normal values giving us a break from the heat with temperatures in the mid to high 20's and low to mid teens for overnight lows. 

Warmer Temperatures and some Humidity Return for weekend, chances for showers. Hotter weather, soon?

 Hello again and welcome to southern Manitoba's weather update for the weekend, calm weather will be likely over the coming days as we end up on the eastern side of high pressure. This pattern will slightly change as we start our weekend, as the ridge moves east systems will begin to move eastwards over the canadian prairies along a branch of the pacific jetstream but will however weaken as they dump a lot of rain on alberta as they move east. Find out how this will impact our temperature pattern over the coming days and what we can expect for the coming weekend ahead. 

(Above: Temperatures forecast for the day on Sunday, highs are likely to reach the upper 20's and low 30's. Very Little in the way of humidity is likely as most of it sits off to the east). 

Thursday: A sunny and warm day can be expected as we start seeing a southerly flow over southern sections of Manitoba. There will be a chance for showers in the southwest during the afternoon, however that chance at the moment is less than 30%. There will be hazy skies due to smoke sitting over our area, and this is expected to persist through the evening, with some clearing in the west towards the latter half of the day. Temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid 20's, as a bit of cloudcover sits over the western half of Manitoba low 20's are likely. Thursday Night: A frontal system will likely develop and move through the southwest and southcentral part of Manitoba, there will be increasing cloudcover through the overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will likely drop into the low to mid teens for most.

Friday: During the early part of the day, there will be a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms over a portion of southern Manitoba, especially the southcentral and southeast parts from just south of lake Manitoba into the whiteshell. According to the models I have looked at there will not be much in the way of accumulations with only 2-4mm or 5mm at most. Moisture flow into this system is lacking significantly. Temperatures will more than likely rise into the low 20's and mid 20's. Friday Night: Clearing is likely as the frontal system moves out of our region, some residual cloudcover is likely over extreme southern Manitoba, this should help keep our temperatures quite mild overnight that is more typical of June with lows in the mid to high teens a very distinct possibility.  

Saturday: Some beautiful weather is likely for the weekend, the day on Saturday will be marked by warm temperatures, and increasing amounts of humidity which I see a possibility as Friday wasnt as  humid Saturday will be. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in areas of southeastern Manitoba on the west side of a trough of low pressure, mostly non severe thunderstorms are a possibility. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's to mid 20's, cooler in the southeast part of Manitoba. Saturday Night: Overnight clear skies are likely as the system moves off into Northern Ontario, this same setup will allow temperatures to drop again into the low to mid teens, with the warmest areas in the parklands by Dauphin.

Sunday: Calm weather is again likely, however we will be south of a area of low pressure centered over Northern Manitoba. Temperatures will likely rise into the mid to high 20's or low 30's, with sunny skies likely during the afternoon. Low pressure will sit off to the west of us, which means a nice westerly flow will be present. Sunday Night: Much of the region will see clear skies again, there will be some smoky or hazy skies, overnight lows will likely remain very mild on Sunday night with areas seeing values in the mid to high teens. A few areas may see lows hanging around 20C in urban areas, especially in cities, towns in the Red River Valley. 

The Week Ahead: Yes Hotter and more humid conditions will return! Some chances for storms returning during the week, a ridge will sit off to the east of us with a southwesterly flow present over Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba bringing a more southerly flow to our area. Temperatures will likely return into the low 30's to start the week, with a few systems of low pressure to watch for thunderstorms I'll know more by Sunday/Monday. Chances for sun and heat will continue. No Wonder the Ex is in town. 

Have a good weekend. -Mike.

Seasonal temperatures, calmer and stable weather arriving. Hints at the long range.

 Much of southern Manitoba is expecting a shift over from very unsettled weather conditions and a streak of multiple days of severe weather. That pattern looks to finally end by this weekend, cooler more seasonal temperatures are likely. Let’s find out what is happening with the pattern and how long this might last for. As we get into the next few days, a welcome reprieve from stormy weather is likely.There will be a risk for haze and smoke to filter in as wildfire smoke moves along with the jetstream that will move over us, through the weekend. 

Friday Night: Clear skies are likely across southern Manitoba on Friday night overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid teens in the southeast, low teens in the southwest and around 10C in the parklands and interlakes in Manitoba. Strong north winds will also be likely during the night after the passage of the cold front. 

(Left): Photo Showing forecasted smoke plumes into the weekend, from wildfires in Alberta and BC on Saturday afternoon with clearing in the early evening. Link to the smoke forecast map is available here: Smoke Forecast - FireSmoke.ca

Saturday: Sunny skies are likely as high pressure once again sits over our area. High temperatures for our day will rise into the high teens and low 20's in western Manitoba and areas further east will more than likely see high values in the low 20's. Drier air will also be present as dewpoints sit below the 15C range. 

Saturday Night: Clear conditions are once again likely as high pressure contimues to sit over our region, overnight low temperatures will once again cool again and drop below the 10C mark in areas of the southwest, areas in the east and southeast will drop into the low teens. Some smoke will likely clear the region heading into the overnight period as the plume travels into the central United States. 

Sunday: Very pleaseant and beautiful weather conditions are likely for Sunday, values will warm into the mid 20's in areas of Swan River south towards Dauphin and Neepawa. Low to mid 20's are likely across the southeast and the interlakes regions. I wouldnt be surprised if the areas by the Manitoba lakes stay a bit cooler, I only see a high of 17C for St Ambroise north of portage La Prairie on Sunday.

Sunday Night: Looking like much of southern sections of Manitoba and the interlakes will see lows in the low to mid teens, with clear conditions. As well areas north of Dauphin by the parklands will see lows in the high teens. 

The Week Ahead: A warmer weather pattern returns during the first half of the week, a ridge may develop during the first half of the week bringing our high temperatures again into the high 20's and low 30's with overnight lows in the upper mid teens and high teens, some nights may not drop below 20C. There will also be increasing humidity as a southerly flow from the gulf of Mexico returns and this would bring a risk for thunderstorms developing towards the middle of the week. We will also see a shift in the pattern to a potential southwesterly flow which would aid in the possibility of more gulf moisture being available for severe weather events and the first of the season possibly starting late week next week. 

Anyways have a good weekend, I will have a summer outlook made on youtube sometime at the end of this weekend or the end of next week. -Mike McGregor.. 

Heat and Humdity Persist, ongoing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

This Blog will be a little bit shorter as I have some things to work on this evening, once again our region pretty much all of southern Manitoba is dealing with significant heat. A large ridge of high pressure and a strong southerly flow over southern Manitoba will aid in high humidity values this weekend. Saturday expect high temperatures to rise into the low to mid 20's, humidity values will rise into the mid to high 30's. The same boat is in store for the day on Sunday where daytime high temperatures will again rise into the high 20's and low 30's, for much of our area with the humidity making it feel more like the mid to high 30's as dewpoint values rise into the high teens. There will be a chance at showers and thunderstorms with not everyone seeing rain and heavy rainfall, the higher risks will be in western Manitoba where a persistent low pressure system will sit in southern Saskatchewan so in that part of the province there may be a higher risk for severe thunderstorms on the day Saturday and Sunday. There will also be a risk for thunderstorms as we go into Sunday evening as well. Points show a cold front slicing into that hot humid airmass in the afternoon on the day Sunday. I dont have a lot of details other than that a risk for severe weather may present itself on Sunday in the interlakes and the red river valley well into southwestern Manitoba as the CAPE values surpass 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg. Overnight lows for saturday and sunday night will only drop into the low to mid 20's. 

The Week Ahead: Significant heat will continue into the week, however more unsettled weather will be likely as a trough and shortwave move through heat and humidity with highs in the high 20's and low 30's. Overnight lows still in the high teens and low 20's. The upper trough by the start to the middle of the week will increase a risk for thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms. I should know more by the end of the weekend. 

Stay cool! A full in detail blog will be back on the day on Monday!