Saturday: During the day saturday sunny skies are likely as remnants of high pressure sit over our region, humidity will be manageable with dewpoints at the highest reaching the mid to high teens. Temperatures however will soar into the high 20's and low 30's with most of the parklands, eastern Manitoba and the western half of Manitoba seeing highs a few degrees below 30C. Humidex values may however reach the upper 30's if your area sees dewpoints in the high teens, which would be southwestern Manitoba mainly.
Saturday Night: There is a chance that some thunderstorms could develop in southwestern Manitoba along the warm front which may then move southeast into North Dakota, there is very low confidence with this at this point in time. However given the instability in place at that point in time, there may be a chance as far east as the red river valley for isolated thunderstorms. Some of them may be severe however if nothing develops expect a clear and calm overnight. Overnight lows will be mild in the southeast with lows in the low 20's, a chance that winnipeg and areas with the concrete may see warmer values (urban areas). Areas in southwestern Manitoba based on the NAM model may be seeing lows in the high teens.
Sunday: The day on Sunday, will end up being an interesting weather day. I am very skeptical this far out on the accuracy of the models however given the consistency of the weather maps that I have seen it looks like we will have another round of possible severe weather. A cold front will move into southern sections of Manitoba ahead of dewpoints in the high teens and low 20's. Temperatures will rise into the high 20's to low 30's and some areas may get as warm as the mid 30's. I am thinking that this may push our humidex values into the mid 30's to high 30's and maybe as warm as the mid 40's if the dewpoints can get high enough. Look at the above graphic showing that instability (CAPE) values on Sunday exceeding 3,000J/Kg, I also looked through the shear and the supercell composite values. If we get storms there is a likelihood they will become severe quite quickly, with hail possibly as large as 2-5cm, flooding rains and the threat of a few tornadoes as a possibility as conditions may be present for them on Sunday. Current thoughts are that the risk area may extend from western Manitoba, early in the afternoon extending into the interlakes and the red river valley , eastern Manitoba. Regardless supercell thunderstorms in discrete cells may occur at first and then a evolution into a bow echo or squall line. If that doesnt happen scattered severe thunderstorms like last time may develop. We will know more on the day of the event happening.
Sunday Night: Clearing will likely occur and calmer drier air behind the cold front. Temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid teens, with some areas in the western half of Manitoba in the low teens. Some residual cloudcover or fog is possible if some areas see humidity near 100%.
The Week Ahead: Monday and the canada Day Holiday will likely be sunny and mild with temperatures in the mid to high 20's a possibility. and overnight lows in the mid to high teens. There also is a good chance that most of the active weather will move through North Dakota. The weather pattern will be changeable as we head well into the second half of the week. We'll know more by that time. Long range models get iffy.
Have a Happy Canada day weekend!!!!
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