Thursday, June 15, 2023

Warmer Temperatures and some Humidity Return for weekend, chances for showers. Hotter weather, soon?

 Hello again and welcome to southern Manitoba's weather update for the weekend, calm weather will be likely over the coming days as we end up on the eastern side of high pressure. This pattern will slightly change as we start our weekend, as the ridge moves east systems will begin to move eastwards over the canadian prairies along a branch of the pacific jetstream but will however weaken as they dump a lot of rain on alberta as they move east. Find out how this will impact our temperature pattern over the coming days and what we can expect for the coming weekend ahead. 

(Above: Temperatures forecast for the day on Sunday, highs are likely to reach the upper 20's and low 30's. Very Little in the way of humidity is likely as most of it sits off to the east). 

Thursday: A sunny and warm day can be expected as we start seeing a southerly flow over southern sections of Manitoba. There will be a chance for showers in the southwest during the afternoon, however that chance at the moment is less than 30%. There will be hazy skies due to smoke sitting over our area, and this is expected to persist through the evening, with some clearing in the west towards the latter half of the day. Temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid 20's, as a bit of cloudcover sits over the western half of Manitoba low 20's are likely. Thursday Night: A frontal system will likely develop and move through the southwest and southcentral part of Manitoba, there will be increasing cloudcover through the overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will likely drop into the low to mid teens for most.

Friday: During the early part of the day, there will be a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms over a portion of southern Manitoba, especially the southcentral and southeast parts from just south of lake Manitoba into the whiteshell. According to the models I have looked at there will not be much in the way of accumulations with only 2-4mm or 5mm at most. Moisture flow into this system is lacking significantly. Temperatures will more than likely rise into the low 20's and mid 20's. Friday Night: Clearing is likely as the frontal system moves out of our region, some residual cloudcover is likely over extreme southern Manitoba, this should help keep our temperatures quite mild overnight that is more typical of June with lows in the mid to high teens a very distinct possibility.  

Saturday: Some beautiful weather is likely for the weekend, the day on Saturday will be marked by warm temperatures, and increasing amounts of humidity which I see a possibility as Friday wasnt as  humid Saturday will be. There will be a risk for thunderstorms in areas of southeastern Manitoba on the west side of a trough of low pressure, mostly non severe thunderstorms are a possibility. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's to mid 20's, cooler in the southeast part of Manitoba. Saturday Night: Overnight clear skies are likely as the system moves off into Northern Ontario, this same setup will allow temperatures to drop again into the low to mid teens, with the warmest areas in the parklands by Dauphin.

Sunday: Calm weather is again likely, however we will be south of a area of low pressure centered over Northern Manitoba. Temperatures will likely rise into the mid to high 20's or low 30's, with sunny skies likely during the afternoon. Low pressure will sit off to the west of us, which means a nice westerly flow will be present. Sunday Night: Much of the region will see clear skies again, there will be some smoky or hazy skies, overnight lows will likely remain very mild on Sunday night with areas seeing values in the mid to high teens. A few areas may see lows hanging around 20C in urban areas, especially in cities, towns in the Red River Valley. 

The Week Ahead: Yes Hotter and more humid conditions will return! Some chances for storms returning during the week, a ridge will sit off to the east of us with a southwesterly flow present over Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba bringing a more southerly flow to our area. Temperatures will likely return into the low 30's to start the week, with a few systems of low pressure to watch for thunderstorms I'll know more by Sunday/Monday. Chances for sun and heat will continue. No Wonder the Ex is in town. 


Have a good weekend. -Mike.


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