Severe Weather for Saturday Night....

Fathers day ccould very well be a day to remember in Southern Manitoba, a significant severe thunderstorm threat is in the cards tonight with the potential for the first memorable storm of the year.

Tonight could very well be a very active night across southern Manitoba as a frontal system that developed out in Western Saskatchewan will move into southern Manitoba overnight, it appears that it is already on the doorstep accorddingg to this Rain Alarm image. The low pressure system will slide eastwards gradually bringing the warm front northwards as it moves East, which means that the severe potential will be north of the border rather than it being south of the border in which many ways it has before.

For the night ahead with the convection already developed the severe potential will increase substantially as all of the necessary ingredients including enough shear flow into the developing storm. Let's look over the ingredients using Brad's mist principle.
Moisture: No shortage of mositure dewpoints will skyrocket overnight into the mid to high teens
Instability: Lots of it should support thunderstorm sustaining CAPES on the order of 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg, LI's -5 to -10, Total Totals of 57 in Winnipeg, K Index of 41 in Winnipeg, Sweat Index of 494 in Winnipeg, BRN of 14 in Winnipeg K index of 46 in Brandon, Total Totals of 60 in Brandon, K index of 14 in Brandon, SWEAT index of 662 in Brandon. Here is what they all mean...
Shear: Enough to support bow echos and development and organization of storm cells. Bulk Shear from 50 to 75 knots. Storm Relative helicity 200 to 450 m2 s2.
 Trigger: Frontal system arriving from the west with warm front slowly moving northwards during the overnight.

The severe weather threat will involve a development of a squall line of thunderstorms that will travel through southern manitoba in the coming hours, with the potential of bow echo development which could very well evolve. Factoring in all things the main concerns will be a hail and wind threat, with high levels of moisture in the atmosphere there is a risk for severe flooding and torrential downpours. Hail will also be a concern with sizes up to golfballs once again expected, and if the storms become outflow dominant there very well could bring gusts in excess of 100km/h. Frequent lightning will also be a concern with the potential for dangerous cloud to ground strikes.

The timeline of the storms will vary on speed of the system, it looks like the southwest will be hit after midnight, Red River Valley at around 3am, Eastman early morning and Northwest Ontario during the day.

Severe Weather Threat: Large Hail as Large as Golf Balls, Frequent lightning, Flooding torrential rains, Damaging winds as high as 100km/h or more. No Tornadoes risk is low however.

More Storms Expected during the day Sunday, some may be severe as well.

Severe Weather Summary June 16,2016

The last few days have been very active in southern Manitoba with severe weather occurring on the night of June 16 and the morning of June 17, 2016.

A trough of low pressure moved over southern Manitoba on Thursday evening, we were expecting severe storms to fire and move west to east in the evening, however due to capping (which is a layer of warm air at the troposphere that prevents storms from developing) in the evening storms never fired in the southwest which is a good thing because they didn't need anymore rainfall. As the trough continued to move east in the Red River Valley it encountered an area where more elevated lift was present at 850mb, also as I had expected the capping weakened at around 2am in the Red River Valley and as a result massive storms fired in the Manitou, Pilot Mound areas at 2am.

The storms went on to produce golf ball size hail and continued to strengthen, there was at least a few signs on radar of rotation by snowflake which is at the border of MB/ND by Pembina Valley Provincial Park. The storms then developed into a line which gave off frequent and constant lightning, hail to golf balls, flooding rains, and some damage from wind but not a lot. The storms missed Winnipeg completely at times it looked like they were coming straight at me on radar, however if it had of hit there probably would have been power outages. Here are some photos of the storms that occurred that night... Courtesy goes to the people on the twitter accounts...

The storms not only caused chaos in the Southern Red River Valley but they also affected Winnipeg.
Storms fired at around 5am west of Winnipeg and entered at around 6am and was the culprit for a tree explosion in the Tuxedo area of Winnipeg, tree splinters drove through a duplex building walls and windows. There was also numerous reports of street flooding with the 2 thunderstorms that hit the city. As much as 3 inches fell in the south end of the city, that was hardest hit.

Here are some photos of the tree that was exploded in the Winnipeg area Friday morning...

Lots of street flooding on Friday morning...

Flooding also occurred in Saint Anne photo from Cathleen Roy, and a storm cloud in La Broquerie from Tracey Benson Kokil. The rainfall totals from the storm are as follows....

The storms were big and we are expecting a lot more, I am coming up with another blogpost in a bit with the storm potential about tonight...

Severe Thunderstorm Outlook for Thursday

Today is expected to be a busy day weatherwise and it will potentially be the most active that we have seen in a long time, a few tweaks to the risk area map I have moved the high risk area further north as the cold front will be affecting those areas more than I first thought and the high risk area is extended further east given forecasted radar imagery. Let's have a look at the graphics before we go into quick details....

Cold front going through later in the evening will trigger severe storms, some may be supercells. Put out by AWWS.

Supercell potential mid evening in southwest and western Manitoba by the WRF Model,
Bow echo and MCS possible overnight.

Thursday Thunderstorm Risk (red is severe thunderstorms) during the day put out by the RDPS Summer Model

Thursday night thunderstorm risk map put out by the RDPS Summer Model (Severe Weather is possible in Red, Near Severe in Orange).

 Nothing muc as changed in terms of what we are expecting, except the tornado risk has dissapeared completely for the Red River Valley overnight on Thursday into Friday. What I am expecting is that severe thunderstorms will develop in Eastern Saskatchewan late afternoon and drift into Western Manitoba by evening along and ahead of the cold front, discrete supercells will likely develop by evening posing a tornado risk with 100km/h winds, golf ball to baseball size hail, heavy rainfall and frequent dangerous lightning. Please Read Environment Canada's latest forecast discussion here: http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/CWWG/focn45.chunk.html .Please stay aware of watches and warnings in your area, and take shelter when dangerous weather threatens. Follow all the info at my page: michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbwxcentral. Here are some Tornado safety precautions from http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/hzd/trnds-en.aspx and http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/hzd/trnds-drng-en.aspx  : 

Also safety tips from TheWeatherNetwork can be found here

"Warning signs of a potential tornado

Warning signs include:

• Severe thunderstorms, with frequent thunder and lightning
• An extremely dark sky, sometimes highlighted by green or yellow clouds
• A rumbling sound or a whistling sound.
• A funnel cloud at the rear base of a thundercloud, often behind a curtain of heavy rain or hail."

"If you are in a house

• Go to the basement or take shelter in a small interior ground floor room such as a bathroom, closet or hallway.
• If you have no basement, protect yourself by taking shelter under a heavy table or desk.
• In all cases, stay away from windows, outside walls and doors

If you live on a farm

• Livestock hear and sense impending tornadoes. If your family or home is at risk, the livestock will be a non-issue. If your personal safety is not an issue, you may only have time to open routes of escape for your livestock. Open the gate, if you must, and then exit the area in a tangent direction away from the expected path of the twister.

If you are in an office or apartment building

• Take shelter in an inner hallway or room, ideally in the basement or on the ground floor.
• Do not use the elevator.
• Stay away from windows.

If you are in a gymnasium, church or auditorium

• Large buildings with wide-span roofs may collapse if a tornado hits.
• If possible, find shelter in another building.
• If you are in one of these buildings and cannot leave, take cover under a sturdy structure such as a table or desk.

Avoid cars and mobile homes

• More than half of all deaths from tornadoes happen in mobile homes.
• Find shelter elsewhere, preferably in a building with a strong foundation.
• If no shelter is available, lie down in a ditch away from the car or mobile home. Beware of flooding from downpours and be prepared to move.

If you are driving

• If you spot a tornado in the distance go to the nearest solid shelter.
• If the tornado is close, get out of your car and take cover in a low-lying area, such as a ditch.

In all cases

• Get as close to the ground as possible, protect your head and watch for flying debris.
• Do not chase tornadoes - they are unpredictable and can change course abruptly.
• A tornado is deceptive. It may appear to be standing still but is, in fact, moving toward you"

 The severe thunderstorms/supercells may form into a severe thunderstorm complex or MCS by evening once they transition they will drift eastwards into the Red river valley, interlakes, Eastern Manitoba late evening and overnight with large hail as large as baseballs, damaging wind potential 80km/h plus, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall near 25 to 75mm. They will weaken once they near the Ontario border or cross into Minnesota. Storms possible Friday afternoon in the Red River Valley/East MB but a slim chance. Will keep you updated on Twitter, Manitoba Weather Center and Southern Manitoba Weather Hub. Here is a great page with information on the weather terms I used such as squall line, supercells, MCS and bow echo's.

Significant severe weather on the way!

A round of heat and humidity will give way to a significant thunderstorm potential and it will be the first severe weather event of this year, we have waited a long time for a event such as this to take place and it will bear watching.

Tonight a area of warmer air will move into the province out ahead of a low pressure system that will be moving into the province tomorrow afternoon and evening, I expect our dewpoints overnight to rise ahead of this area of low pressure making it feel quite humid. Overnight lows will dip into the mid to high teens under clear skies.

Thursday will be a interesting day weatherwise it could be the first day severe weather occurs in 2016, the day will start very sunny and with dewpoint temperatures getting into the mid to high teens possibly above 20C in some areas of southwest Manitoba making it feel rather humid. Temperatures by  afternoon should be in the mid to high twenties making it feel closer to 40C. Once we reach the noon hour there will be a frontal system from the west making it's way into Manitoba by late afternoon. There will be explosive thunderstorm development and in fact stormchasers are coming up from the states into Canada to chase. Why? Let's have a look.

Significant Tornado Parameter for the day Thursday. Potential for supercells.

EHI is very useful in forecasting tornado potential, an 8 means significant tornadoes are possible take it with a grain of salt though.

Tornado Potential and severe hail potential in and around Dauphin on Thursday

Tornado Potential and severe hail potential in and around Brandon on Thursday

Sadly Tornado potential exists in model runs at 1am for Winnipeg on Friday.

As you can see there appears to be a very high risk for severe weather tomorrow. Let's have a look at the data I came up with.
Moisture - No shortage of moisture. High dewpoints in the mid to high teens, possibly above 20C on Thursday. Humidex values above 35C.
Instability- Extreme Instability is in place for Thursday. CAPES on the order of 3,000 to 4,500 J/kg, Lifted Indicies between -7 to -12. Bulk Richardson Number in Dauphin at 13.26, Brandon (both at 7pm) Winnipeg at 13 (1am). Anything in the teens is optimal for supercells. Total Totals is 68 in Dauphin, 58 in Brandon, 58 in Winnipeg which means scattered severe storms. SWEAT (Severe weather threat index) is 490 in Brandon,  847 in Dauphin, 595 in Winnipeg overnight altogether means supercell potential.
Shear- Significant shear is possible on Friday in between 200 to 500 m2 s-2, as well as EHIs of 3 to 8 in the southwest portion of the province. Significant Tornado is at 4 to 6.
T-Trigger Cold Front coming through later in the day time late afternoon out West and late evening to overnight in the Red River Valley East MB.

Severe Thunderstorms and supercells are most likely to fire late afternoon to early evening in Western Manitoba.

Put this altogether we have a explosive environment for severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. To start off once the cold front interacts with the heat and humidity ahead of it expect discrete supercell thunderstorms to fire off late afternoon in the Western half of the province as far North as Swan River they will pose a tornado threat with the highest risk areas being the Dauphin area East towards Lake Manitoba into southwest Manitoba. Supercell potential is very high tomorrow afternoon into the evening and overnight. Alongside with winds in excess of 100km/h, golf ball to base ball size hail, heavy rains with as much as 75mm expected to fall, and dangerous frequent lightning as it moves east southeastwards. Storm Chasers will be out tomorrow afternoon and evening in the West.

Overnight Severe Storms expected in the eastern half of the province.

Possible Evolution of a dangerous bow Echo Overnight into Friday

Winnipeg could be hit by this bow echo on Thursday Night.

High Shear expected Thursday night with decent supercell potential

Supercell potential in the Red River Valley on Thursday Night, nothing as big as the Western half of Manitoba though.

Once that all evolves expect that there will be some kind of straight line wind event with possible embedded tornadoes, the risk of violent tornadoes is present in the Red River Valley and Winnipeg  overnight on Thursday but if anything expect winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds the system will move east southeast late afternoon to overnight as it moves into either Northwest Ontario or Northern Minnesota. Please make ure you tie everything down that you can in the case of this potentially being a big wind event. Temperatures will stick around twenty degrees overnight on Thursday. Please listen for watches and warnings put out by Environment Canada tomorrow and take shelter when severe weather hits. Never film a tornado when it is coming at you, head to shelter immediately!  You can use these tools to prepare and see what the weather will be like....
https://spotwx.com/, http://scottkehler.powweb.com/june0816/, http://weather.gc.ca/, weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=refcmp&rh=2016060812&fh=42&r=conus&dpdt=
 and my page.... www.michaelmcgregor7.wix.com/southmbwxcentral


Here is a run down of the areas requested earlier tonight:

West Central: Dauphin,Binscarth, Roblin, Ste Rose, Ethelbert, Amaranth, Sidney, Basswood, Newdale.: High Risk of Severe. Supercells Likely mid afternoon and early evening, Tornadic potential is there with strong tornadoes possible late afternoon and evening. Clearing Mid Evening.

Southwest: La Rivirie, Boissevain, Melita, Glenboro, Brandon, Baldur, Pilot Mound, Treherne, Oak Lake, Hartney, Virden, Cartwright, Miami, Spruce Woods, Somerset, Shilo, Waskada, Neepawa.: High Risk of Severe. Supercell thunderstorms are likely late afternoon to mid evening, Tornadoes are a threat and could be very strong when they develop. Clearing by mid to late evening.


RRV: Erickson, Elm Creek, Culross, Grosse Isle, Ste Agathe, Haskett, Carman, Sanford, Kane, Winnipeg (Saint James, Silver Heights, Transcona, St.Boniface, Downtown, River Heights, Charleswood, East Kildonan, West Kildonan, Wolseslely). East Saint Paul, West Saint Paul, Elie, Portage La Prairie, Emerson, Lowe Farm, Winkler, Morden.: High Risk of Severe. Straight line wind event likely mid to late evening with embedded tornadoes possible albeit weak, winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

SE: Vita, Grunthal, Piney, Sprague, New Bothwell, Steinbach. Moderate Risk of severe. Thunderstorms may very well mis you depending on how far southeast they dig. If you get hit you will be in the main event: winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to toonies and hen eggs, rains as high as 50mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

East MB: Beausejour, Marchand, Seddons Corner, Anola, Whiteshell. Moderate Risk of severe.  Main action may miss you and slide past the border south of you or you will get hit by the main line with winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to toonies and hen eggs, rains as high as 50mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

Interlakes: Fraserwood, Arborg, Gimli, Stony Mountain, Fisher Branch, Selkirk: High Risk of Severe. Supercells and Straight line wind event likely mid to late evening with embedded tornadoes possible albeit weak, winds in excess of 100km/h, hail up to golfball or baseball size, rains as high as 75mm to 100mm, frequent lightning and of course the usual shelf clouds.

More chances of showers and storms run through the end of the week on Friday with a possible severe weather day again as well. The weekend has more severe chances possible, it is just too soon to get into details. Temperatures in the mid to high 20's possible under humid conditions.

Rain and Thunderstorms on the way with significant rainfall for most

Rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to move in within the next few hours, current KTIV radar image at 12:59am Tuesday

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible overnight into Tuesday morning with 30 to 75mm expected, locally higher amounts are possible. Image from KTIV Interactive Futurecast.

Tonight an area of low pressure will swing in from the south bringing a large area of rainfall into the province, thunderstorms have already developed and persisted in southern and central north dakota for the past few hours. This area of rainfall and embedded thunderstorms will evolve and develop northwards overnight into tomorrow morning covering all of southern Manitoba. Rainfall amounts could be as much as 10 to 30mm in the Red River Valley and 70mm in the southwest. For those who are affected by thunderstorms mostly in the overnight and morning hours you could pick up higher amounts. 

A thunderstorm threat exists Tuesda afternoon and evening

As we get into the morning hours the rain and thunderstorms will clear out of the Red  River Valley, leaving behind a dry slot where the sun should come out. With daytime heating there should be increased chances for showers and non severe thunderstorms to develop especially in the evening hours along the cold front. However in the southwest rain is expected to continue to fall under the stubborn occluded front where 70mm is expected by the end of the day. A rainfall warning is in place for the southwestern portion of the province read here... http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?mb5 Temperatures should be near 20C in Winnipeg and in the mid to high teens for most of the province. Cooler and rainer conditions are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday

Long Range:
Warmer weather is expected to arrive by midweek with a increased chance of more showers and storms for the end of the week as another couple of low pressure systems move into the area. As we are entering June on Wednesday I expect the real heat and humidity to start pumping in a week or two and severe weather may start becoming a common occurrence here in a very short while. You know being in Manitoba things can change quite quickly.

Thunderstorms likely this evening and overnight. Details.

A potential for thunderstorms exists tonight in areas of the Red River Valley and southeast portions in southern Manitoba.

Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in North Dakota and move north either into the Red River Valley or southeast Manitoba later this evening.

Severe thunderstorms possible south of the border this evening into overnight.

Temperatures in the mid to high 20's are mild and ripe enough for storm development this evening, however they will cool down with the passage of a trough tonight into the mid to high teens. An area of low pressure approaching from the southwest tonight will create a area of ample moisture and high energy levels, CAPE\s generally in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range and Lifted indicies in the -3 to -6 range.  As the trough ejects into the area this evening thunderstorms are expected to fire along that feature sometime this evening in central North Dakota and are expected to strengthen and move northeastwards or eastwards depending on the atmospheric flow, entering southern Manitoba sometime around 11pm or later. Where they develop and what direction they head will depend on what areas will recieve rain tonight, if they develop a little further east than expected they will likely hit southeastern Manitoba, if they develop in central North Dakota or even a bit further west they could enter the Red River Valley areas and move northeast into the cottage country and Bissett areas. Scenario number 2 is more likely at the moment, but the timing of the development of storms and where they fire will be crucial in telling where they end up. A smaller chance for showers and storms exist in the southwest portion of the province this evening to near midnight then the threat will ease with clearer skies. However storms will not be severe when they enter southern Manitoba, they will likely be non severe to strong, rainfall amounts in storms are forecast to be in the 40mm range as per Environment Canada. Threats will be moderate to heavy rainfall, small hail, some moderate wind gusts, and frequent to occasional lightning. Thunderstorms are expected to clear late overnight and leave behind the odd shower or thunderstorm by morning, with sunnier skies on Monday.

Beautiful end to the week stormy weekend ahead (with some humor added).

The rest of the week and part of our weekend will be a warm delightful and sunny one as a ridge of high pressure moves over the area however a threat for showers and thunderstorms will arrive at the end of the long weekend.

Summerlike temperatures expected for the day on Saturday, warm and dry as well.

Looking ahead to your day today expect sunny beautiful sunny dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to high 20's a few places may hit 30 degrees with winds out of the south fairly light. A high of 25C in Winnipeg on Friday. Humidity will be fairly low only in the 20 to 30% range, though it should make for a fairly nice day to get out and get exercise or do outdoor activities. Overnight lows will be in the 10 to 15C range, there will be an increased humidity overnight as well.

 http://www.roadsideamerica.com/blog/behold-the-tumbleweed/

That is actually a tumbleweed statue in Chandler,AZ go figure

Saturday will be a beautiful day too with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20's with a few places once again hitting 30C but that will be fairly hard to reach (places in Saskatchewan may hit 30C on Saturday). A high of 26C in Winnipeg for Saturday. Humidity will be a bit higher around 40%, but still nowhere near what you would call humid. Winds will be light & near 20 to 30km/h out of the south once again. At least it won't be as what you would call a heatblizzard (70km/h winds plus) with a mexican singing jingle bells jingle bell ouch ouch ouch is the heat, oh what fun it is to ride in a texan tumbleweed sleigh. thank goodness we don't have those or tumbleweed. There is actually a tumbleweed statue somewhere in the world that would be a sight to see. As we get into Saturday night things get interesting, the humidity starts increasing as well with dewpoints nudging into the 10 to 15C range where our overnight lows sit in that range. All as the system approaches from the west.

System providing severe weather potential on Sunday, drawing in warm moist air from the south.

 

Higher dewpoints from the gulf of Mexico, means more humidity on the evening Sunday providing storm potential with a low pressure system.

Severe Weather Sunday????
Sunday is a interesting day weatherwise a cold front approaching from the west will move into the province encountering the hot humid conditions that could very well be in place. Temperatures will either be in the low to mid 20's or mid to high 20's with increasing cloud during the day and humidity levels quite higher than compared to other days, creating a setup for thunderstorms once the front goes through. Here is a look at the ingredients we have on Sunday using Brad V's MIST Idea. Moisture, Instabilty, Shear and Trigger.

M-No lack of moisture humidity levels in the 50 to 60% range or less, dewpoints in the 15 to 20C range.
I- Lots of instability is present on the day Sunday, CAPE is 1,000 in the south with a small portion of 2,500 J/kg in the riding mountains. LI is -4 to -6, TT is 52.72, SWEAT is 367.24, Bulk Richardson number is 43.46 Energy Index is -3.39.
S- There appears to be enough shear to keep storms organized enough for supercells I suppose, Helicity is 175, Bulk Shear is 21.20. knots Ideally you need higher shear to support more supercell potential.
T- The cold front will be our trigger for the day on Sunday, timing is crucial to pinpoint thunderstorm threat timing.

Look at the indicies I used (Scroll down to the bottom on the page of the second link for information on the index's and what they mean... http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/ 
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

What can we expect?

I spoke with CBC Meteorologist John Sauder yesterday and he says the timing of the front is crucial to deciding thunderstorm potential on the day Sunday. It looks like at the moment the frontal system will push into southwestern Manitoba in the early afternoon hours and should start to generate scattered thunderstorms mid to late afternoon in the southwestern part of the province with a slight chance of severe thunderstorms. You better get your hailguard out and start ducking for cover, if we were made of stone then we could start breaking the ice, get it breaking the ice? Literally though the threats will be large hail and damaging winds as well as heavy downpours and frequent lightning, by evening it should form into a line of storms that will move east late evening and overnight. Given the indicies after the LI (which are based at my place in Winnipeg) we should see showers and thunderstorms some severe or they may be severe thunderstorms along with the possibility of supercells. There once again is the risk for large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. The NAM is showing a smidgen of a chance of weak tornadoes in the Red River Valley, but I really doubt that will be even likely here Sunday. Once the front goes through expect a lingering chance for showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning with the odd thunderstorm. Overnight lows on Sunday will drop into the mid teens with relatively high humidity.

Look Ahead to Next Week.
Monday will see a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the afternoon, though nothing like it was on Sunday. As we get into the start of the week a southwestern flow will dominate the area bringing in a continued chance for showers with a possible chance of thunderstorms on a few days of the week, nothing severe though. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 20's which is slightly above normal for this time of year. Enjoy!

I will be sure to update you all on the thunderstorm threat that is arriving on Sunday on Twitter and in the comments section of this blog.