Heat and Unsettled weather Ahead

 Much of southern Manitoba has experienced a hot and dry weekend, temperatures soared into the low to mid 30s. Fortunately this trend looks like it may have some hope in store, an area of low pressure will move through the region and it may bring a chance for unsettled weather. There might be a threat for severe weather as well. Read on to find out more . 

Monday: Much of southern sections of the province will be basking in the heat, it appears a band of showers and weak thundershowers will move through the southern half of the province early in the morning. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected. A cold front and attendant low pressure system will approach the region, by mid to late afternoon. CAPE values are expected to be in the 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg range with bulk shear values only of 20 to 30 knots. Once that front goes through the heat and humidity, there is a chance of severe thunderstorm development come the afternoon period. Model data I have looked over appears to hint at isolated to scattered thunderstorm development particularly after a line of thunderstorms moves through the region currently to 3pm. with a risk of thunderstorms becoming severe in between the hours of 12pm-9pm. The best risk for severe weather will be up into the inter lakes from Portage La Prairie east to the Ontario border south to the USA border. The potential would be mainly gusts to 100km/h, 2 to 4cm hail and heavy rainfall.  Temperatures will soar into the low to mid 30s (30 to 35C). Humidex values more so in the high 30s (35 to 40C). Winnipeg: Sunny, increasing clouds by morning. Then 70 percent chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms (some severe). High 28C. Humidex 35C. Brandon: Partly cloudy , 30 percent chance of showers in the morning and early afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the afternoon, high 29C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Risk of a thunderstorm late in the afternoon. High 27. Humidex 32. Monday Night: It appears that the cold front will move through the region come the late evening, behind it moderating temperatures are expected. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid to high teens. Clear skies to partly cloudy skies are also expected. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy. 40% chance of showers in the evening. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the evening.  Low 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy low 15C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy. Low 17C. 

Tuesday: A cold front is expected to drop south with a northwesterly flow aloft , the unfortunate part of this is that the front will also bring behind it smoke from fires burning in northern Saskatchewan. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected there will also be a risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will soar into the low to high twenties (22C to 27C), with the cooler temperatures in the parklands regions. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms. hazy with smoke high 27C. Brandon:  Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms, hazy with smoke high 26C. Dauphin:  Partly cloudy, then 60% chance of showers in the afternoon with risk of thunderstorms  hazy with smoke high 22C. Tuesday Night: Clearing skies are expected, as the front moves south into North Dakota. There may be a few left over showers however that should clear by evening. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens, overnight (13 to 16C). Winnipeg: 30% chance of showers in the evening with the risk of a thunderstorm. Low 16C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers with a risk of a thunderstorm in the evening. Low 16C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the evening. Risk of a thunderstorm. Low 16C. 

Wednesday: Sunny and hot weather is expected to return for the day, high pressure should arrive back in the region. The only thing is that smoke will filter into the region again as a northwesterly flow sits over the area and hazy skies will likely give way to less sunlight coming in. High temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20s once again. Winnipeg: Sunny, hazy with smoke. High 29C. Brandon: Partly cloudy. Hazy with smoke high 26C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 28C. Hazy with smoke. 

Summer Weather Makes A Comeback

 Much of southern Manitoba has been seeing a cooler than average weather pattern over the past few days , a northwest flow at first which transitioned into a northeast flow that allowed forest fire smoke into the province. Finally, some good news is that our weather is about to get much warmer into the next couple of days, a southerly flow will take over for the second half of the week. Read on to find out how warm it will get and what we can expect for our weather ahead below.

  

Wednesday Night: Southern Manitoba will be on the eastern edge of an area of high pressure that will begin filtering a southerly flow into the province. Partly cloudy skies are expected, for the overnight period with some thicker cloud cover across areas of extreme southern Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens, 11 to 16C. Winnipeg: Clear then increasing cloud after midnight low 15C. Brandon: Clear, increasing cloud after midnight low 11C. Dauphin: A few clouds overnight low 15C. 

Thursday: An area of low pressure will skirt the border from southeastern Saskatchewan into North Dakota, it will miss our area however. So I expect sunny skies across much of the southern half of the province. There will be a slight risk of thunderstorms across the southern half of Manitoba from the southwest into the Red River Valley regions, mainly west of and including Winnipeg. This is evident on the ECCC thunderstorm outlook risk map. Slightly increasing heat is expected across the Canadian prairies, thanks to a southerly to westerly wind in place will contribute to temperatures within the mid to high twenty celcius range (25 to 29C). Also the smoke will be out of the province and mainly focused in areas near the Ontario border, so the air quality should see improvement. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 28C. Brandon: Sunny, high 28C. Dauphin: Sunny high 27C. Thursday Night: An area of high pressure will move into the northern regions overnight into Friday. Mostly clear conditions are expected into the night. No notable weather is expected. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens, with values from (14 to 18C). Winnipeg: clear, low 16C. Brandon: Clear, low 18C. Dauphin: Clear low 15C. 

Friday: The day on Friday will be fairly calm weatherwise, under high pressure a westerly flow will sit over the region. Sunny skies are expected for the day on Friday, some areas of the province will see more cloudcover off and on under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will soar into the high 20’s and low 30s, with the hottest weather occurring in the interlakes and areas of western Manitoba. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 30C. Brandon: Sunny high 30C. Dauphin: A mix of sun and cloud high 30C. 

Friday Night: Calm weather conditions are expected overnight with very little in the way of cloudcover or precipitation. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens (15 to 19C) with some locations staying around 20C overnight. Perfect night to keep the windows open. Winnipeg: Clear low 19C. Brandon: Clear, low 19C. Dauphin: Clear low 20C. 

The Weekend: It appears there will be an increasing amount of gulf moisture arriving in the region which may aid in the development of unsettled weather meaning showers and thunderstorms into the weekend and the beginning of the week. Temperatures appear, to sit in the twenties to low 30s for the weekend. 

Hot weather ahead, dry conditions persist.

 A large upper ridge over the Canadian Rockies in British Columbia will start building eastwards over the coming days, this will contribute to a hot and dry airmass that will eventually arrive in Manitoba. It has been so hot in western Canada that previous temperature records have been broken, the hottest temperature was in Lytton,BC where it reached 46.6C on Sunday. It broke the long-standing record of 45C in Middale Saskatchewan on July 5,1937. Read on to find out how hot will it get for the first half of the week and where the hottest temperatures will be in Manitoba. 

NAM Forecast Temperatures for Tuesday low 30’s possible in the southern half of Manitoba 😊

(Even though writing this at 4pm we still have weather to talk about for today). A small area of high pressure, is sitting over North Dakota and is expected to sit, over the northern plains over the coming days. Sunny and calm conditions are expected for the remaining of the day with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20’s if not there already (24 to 28C). Winnipeg: Sunny high 26C. Brandon: Sunny, high 26C. Dauphin: Sunny high 25C. 

Monday Night: Mainly clear conditions are expected for the overnight period, into the overnight some cloud might filter into areas of southwestern Manitoba. No precipitation is expected however. A few showers are possible in the overnight hours in the parklands area of southwestern Manitoba. Overnight lows will drop into the mid teens for much of the region, (14C to 17C) a few exceptions may end up being over the Manitoba lakes where some regions along the lake shore could see the high teens (17 to 19C). Winnipeg: Clear, low 16C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, low 16C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, low 17C. 

 Tuesday: As the ridge approaches Manitoba , temperatures will soar into the high 20’s (25 to 30C) with some areas seeing highs in the low 30’s (30 to 32C) particularly the inter lakes, areas west of and along the southern edges of lake Manitoba into the Red River Valley. Sunny skies are also likely for the afternoon, the airmass will also have fairly low dew point temperatures so the humidity will not be much of a factor. Winnipeg: Sunny high 30C. Brandon: Sunny high 29C. Dauphin: Sunny high 30C. 

Tuesday Night: A cold front will slowly move south into areas of central Manitoba and should be over the interlakes region by morning, however it will not impact our weather or temperatures. Nothing in the way of precipitation is expected, there may be a couple of clouds. However temperatures will remain surprisingly warm as the ridge moves east into Alberta/Saskatchewan. Manitoba overnight lows will only sit in the high teens (17 to 19C) some areas in the parklands may only drop to 20C, all thanks to a southwesterly to westerly wind. Winnipeg: Clear, low 19C. Brandon: Clear, low 18C. Dauphin: Clear low 19C. 

Wednesday: If anyone is looking for that good old summer weather, we’ll Wednesday is your day! Sunny skies are expected and generous warmth, all thanks to the long wave trough moving into Ontario and a ridge moving over Manitoba by the afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the low 30’s for the Red River valley, the interlakes, areas along and south of Neepawa west of lake Manitoba. Areas north of that will see highs in the high 20s to just at or below 30C. Winnipeg: Sunny high 33C. Brandon: Sunny high 33C. Dauphin: Sunny high 30C.  

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies are expected for a period overnight into Thursday in the interlakes regions only, partly cloudy skies are expected for the rest of the region. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the high teens for most (15 to 18C), with areas in southeastern Manitoba dropping only into the low 20’s (20 to 22C). Winnipeg: Clear low 20C. Brandon: Clear, low 18C, Dauphin: Clear low 16C. 

Second half of the Week: The ridge I often talked about for the early week will build east during the second half of the week, temperatures will still remain in the high twenties and the low 30’s. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the high teens. Little in the way of precipitation is expected for the second half of the week. *Please Pray for some well needed moisture we need it !! *

Slightly unsettled weekend, ahead.

A beautiful weekend is in store for much of southern regions of Manitoba, a westerly flow aloft will transition into a northwesterly flow . A few areas of low pressure will also swing through this weekend, that will result in a slightly unsettled but dry and warm air mass. 

Friday: The rest of the day today looks like we will continue having a sunny and pleasant day , an area of showers are sitting south of the border at the moment. Temperatures will likely rise a bit this late afternoon into the evening, however at the time of the blog a lot of day time highs have been reached, at mainly in the mid to high 20C range. 

Friday Night: Expect calm conditions with periods of cloudy to partly cloudy conditions with heavier cloud expected in the southeast, overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, warmest around Dauphin.  (13C to 18C) across much of the south. Winnipeg: Mainly clear low 15C. Brandon: Clear low 13C. Dauphin: Clear low 15C. 

Saturday: A large area of low pressure off in northern Manitoba will be pushing a trough through areas of southern Manitoba, a risk of thunderstorms will exist for the day on Saturday. Partly cloudy to Sunny skies are expected for the day.  Models show a lack of shear for storms to organize much, however as the front goes through from the north with MLCAPES of 500-1,000J/Kg. I think there will be a risk of scattered thunderstorms, some may be marginally severe however I expect them to remain below severe limits. The best risk will be in areas of southwestern Manitoba , the red river valley, and southeast Manitoba. The chance at widespread thunderstorms is low, they’ll be mainly isolated day time heating pop up thunderstorms . I expect most of the unsettled weather to clear the province by late afternoon to early evening. Temperatures will likely reach the mid to high 20s, (25-29C) ( with areas by the Manitoba lakes seeing values in the high teens to low 20’s (18 to 22C). Winnipeg: Sunny, then 40% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 27C. Brandon: Sunny, then 30% chance of showers, risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 26C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 30% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms. High 26C. 

Saturday Night: Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected in the overnight period, a northwest flow will also establish itself over the region resulting in calmer conditions as a warm front sits over northern Manitoba. Low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens once again, (13 to 15C). Winnipeg: Clear, low 12C. Brandon: Clear low 13C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy low 14C.  

Sunday: A chance for showers is expected for Sunday with mostly sunny skies expected for the day. A cold front will pass through with some precipitation expected, there will be heavier cloud in areas of southwestern Manitoba which may hinder temperatures from getting as warm as it has been over the past few days. The HRRR model is hinting at showers and thunderstorms for the day on Sunday coming in from the North and hitting areas of southern Manitoba specifically the southwest but I don’t see that in other weather models. There are Chances of that happening. Temperatures for the day on Sunday look to hit the mid to high 20s. With areas of southwestern Manitoba seeing the low 20s. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 27C. Brandon: Partly to mostly cloudy 60% chance of showers risk of thunderstorms. High 23C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, 60% chance of showers. Risj of thunderstorms. High 25C. 

Sunday Night: A cold front will travel through the south on Sunday afternoon before exiting the province towards the evening, behind it a slightly cooler airmass will filter in. Mainly clear conditions with a few clouds.  Temperatures are expected to drop to the low to mid teens (11 to 15C), cooler in the interlake regions with low teens expected. Winnipeg: Clear, a few clouds low 16C. Brandon: Clear, a few clouds. Low 14C. Dauphin: Clear, a few clouds. Low 16C.  

The Week Ahead:  Looks like the week ahead will feature a area of high pressure off to the west.  A hot and fairly calm weather pattern will be in store for the week, a large ridge appears to set up over areas of western Canada bringing in heat similar to what the deserts experience in areas of Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico etc of 35C to 45C. This heat will spread across areas of western Canada , before we experience the heat which may be less significant when it arrives here than in BC, temperatures will likely reach the mid to high 20’s for the first half of the week. 

Thunderstorm risk, slightly above normal temperatures continues.

 A quick note, I will be updating these blogs with a summary on days that weather is calm or not significant. With days getting hotter in the summer I will be writing more detailed blogs to inform people of the heat and humidity as well as severe weather events that occur. This weeks mid week update is below.

 Much of southern Manitoba has seen a below normal temperature pattern over the past few days , the warmer weather did arrive back on Tuesday and that trend looks to continue. There will be a cold front driving through the southern half of Manitoba, a large area of SBCAPE in excess of 800-1000J/Kg will encompass areas of southern Manitoba. A General threat for severe thunderstorms exists for southern sections of Manitoba from 4pm-10pm. A higher chance for severe storms exists in areas of eastern Manitoba, as the cold front kicks up with the heat and humidity in place. Expect. A threat for large hail, heavy rain, and strong winds current model data suggests gusts 80 to 100km/h are possible with thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 20’s to low 30’s. Heading into the rest of the week, high temperatures look to sit in the mid to high 20’s, some days may see low 30C values. There will also be a good chance at seeing overnight lows in the mid to high teens as well. 

I’ll update this blog, later this week on Friday. -Mike McGregor 

Pleasant weather Ahead, Cool Trend coming??

 Southern Manitoba will be expecting a fairly nice second half of the week as a area of high pressure sits over the northern plains, the unfortunate news is that it will not last long. Cooler temperatures are on the way but briefly. 

Thursday: A cold front will gradually swing south from the inter lakes and northern Manitoba through the day on Thursday. Temperatures won’t be affected. The day will be beautiful with sunny skies, and high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s, temperatures will sit in the 23-29C for much of the southern half of the province. A few localities in the parklands will see highs in the low 20’s (20 to 23C). Winnipeg: Sunny, high 27C. Brandon: Sunny high 25C. 

Thursday Night: Cloudy skies are expected overnight into Friday. There also will be a chance for showers and drizzle by the Manitoba lakes. By morning the cold front I mentioned will be sitting over southern Manitoba, however a cooler overnight is expected than we have received over the past few nights, temperatures will reach the mid teens overnight from 11 to 16C with some areas of the parklands in and around Dauphin dropping below 10C. Winnipeg: Cloudy to partly cloudy, low 14C. Brandon: Cloudy, low 12C. 

Friday: Cloudy skies are once again expected with some periods of sun mixed in,  temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens on the day (14C to 19C), with the temperatures in the high teens in southwestern Manitoba. Little in the way of precipitation is expected for the afternoon. Winnipeg: Cloudy, high 15C. Brandon: Cloudy, high 18C. 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy skies will allow for a cool airmass to filter in behind the cold front overnight, with an area of high pressure sitting just to the south. This will be part of a northwesterly flow aloft that will stay for the weekend. This setup will in turn inhibit our temperatures from staying in the mid teens. Instead lows will only be in the high single digit range (5 to 9C). Temperatures around the lakes will drop to the low teens, lake water holds more heat at night in the summer and can warm the surrounding regions. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy: Low 8C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, low 8C.

The weekend: Temperatures will likely make a rebound and rise into the low to mid 20’s, on Saturday. There will be some unsettled weather as another area of low pressure swings through. Showers are likely towards the afternoon and second half of the day into Sunday night. Mainly looking at a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms (30% chance of them). Sunday looks unsettled also with highs in the mid to high teens, with showers expected also. Lows will be in the high single digits to low teens. 

Hot Weather Well Underway

 

Much of the southern prairie provinces can expect a period of hot and humid conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds and gradually moves east. Southern Manitoba can expect generally sunny to partly cloudy skies as this ridge builds in, temperatures will soar into the mid to high twenties on Tuesday with some areas of extreme southern, particularly southwestern Manitoba seeing highs in the 30C range on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Wednesday things get interesting a area of low pressure will come in and we may see highs mid to high 20s or in the low to mid 30s, that’s conditional depending on storm development more storms equals lower temperatures.  The humidity will increase on Wednesday as another area of low pressure will move through the area with our next chance at thunderstorms. Some of which may be severe. Models are still in disagreement on placement and time. We’ll update you on Wednesdays blog. 

-Mike McGregor