Mild but unsettled week ahead with wintery mix of rain and snow

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba, received a significant winter storm over the second half of the week and the weekend. Snowfall totals fell in staggering amounts across the south. With upwards of 50cm that fell in the parklands region lesser amounts as you go towards areas south of the Manitoba lakes. Looking ahead at our week a westerly flow aloft will bring in increasing amounts of moisture,with a low pressure system in our area. We are already seeing a band of freezing rain impacting southwestern Manitoba from this system, I expect more mixed precipitation to occur in the area. There also will be more moderate temperatures as a result of the southerly flow with it. Find out how long the mild weather will last for and what we can expect weather wise in the coming days.

A photo of the forecast precipitation for the freezing rain expected this evening into the overnight hours. 

Monday Night:  Generally cloudy skies are expected as a warm front moves through the area, this forecast is a bit interesting as there will be a band of freezing rain in southwestern Manitoba moving east into areas just west  the red river valley by morning. Ahead of this band of freezing rain will be snow in the south central and eastern portions of southwestern Manitoba. The main concern with this system is that freezing rain will be ongoing throughout a majority of the evening to after midnight, in western portions of Manitoba likely reaching portage la prairie and points east after midnight. The band of freezing rain will likely weaken as it arrives in the southeast part of Manitoba. Regardless roads across the south will get very icy so travel is not recommended if your in rural areas and remember to adjust to the conditions present. As the warm front moves through temperatures will surprisingly stay near to zero degrees overnight in the Red River Valley and the interlakes (-1 to -2C). Areas in the southwest staying a degree or 2 above zero (0 to 3C)  and areas in the southeast staying slightly below zero (-1 to -4C). 

Tuesday: The forecasting is quite complicated, patchy freezing rain will be ongoing in the inter lakes, red river valley and eastern Manitoba in the morning hours. Southeastern Manitoba may end up only seeing cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm up enough near noon to allow for rain to fall in the south central and eastern areas before a transition over to light snow and snow occurs in eastern sections in the late afternoon before it enters Ontario in the late afternoon . The warm sector should nudge up far enough north in western Manitoba to allow for the sun to peak out in the afternoon. Temperatures for the day will sit in the low single digits for a majority of the forecast area (1 to 6C), areas in eastern sections might only get up closer to 1 or 2C. 

Tuesday Night: An area of low pressure will move east into eastern Manitoba, behind it the northwesterly flow will allow for a large swath of snow to develop and gradually move east southeast. This will likely envelop western Manitoba, the interlakes and southern Manitoba. There will be a risk for blowing snow as this system impacts the area. We will only be receiving about 5-10cm with this snowfall as it appears to be a clipper sort of system. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with the lakes remaining warmer than 0C because of the lake water not being frozen over yet.  

Wednesday: A trough of low pressure will move east, southeast behind it a continuing northwesterly flow will bring light to moderate snowfall in the morning hours.  Off and on periods of snow is expected through the afternoon with varying degrees of intensity but not as heavy as the morning hours. Lake effect streamers are also a possibility as the cold air will be coming off the warm lakes. The same setup happens to people in Ontario during the winter seasons, we’ll never get near as much as they do however. Temperatures will only manage to warm up into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with areas in the western half of Manitoba on the colder side of temperatures. 

Wednesday Night: A majority of the region can expect cloudy skies, with the exception being southwestern Manitoba where clearing skies is possible by the overnight hours. Some lake effect flurries are possible overnight in the central and eastern southern sections. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits in the southeast and south central parts of Manitoba. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the high minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with some areas dropping down to near -10C, some areas may see lows in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C) in the escarpment of Riding Mountain and by Swan River.  

 Second half of the week: Much of the southern sections of our region can expect temperatures in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs. Overnight lows will sit in the mid to high minus single digits. There may be a chance for some flurries or showers on Friday before another area of low pressure moves in for the weekend. 

Significant Winter storm, signals end to warm weather.

Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect a end to warm and sunny weather unfortunately, a strong and potent low pressure system is expected to bring a blast of wintery weather as it invaded all regions of the forecast area for the second half of the week. Read on to find out how much snow we will get and how long it will last for. (Note the forecasts for Manitoba locations in this blog are from environment Canada). 

Wednesday: Expect cloudy skies as our sneaky low pressure system comes into the region, rain will develop in the morning and persist through the early afternoon in the southeast. Rain showers will begin to mix with snow in the southwest part of Manitoba, the exception being the escarpment where snow will begin by the morning hours. The snow will start developing  in east as the day goes on. Not only that but roads and highways will begin to deteriorate. Most of the snow will melt on contact during the day before some of the snow starts to stick after the surfaces have cooled. Temperatures will remain above zero in the low single digits. Highs near the 0 to 5C mark will be across the south with the exception of the Manitoba escarpment where highs will only reach the low minus single digits (-1 to -2C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning then changing to rain in the morning. Rainfall amount 5 to 10 mm. Wind east 30 km/h. High plus 3. Brandon: Snow mixed with rain. Risk of freezing rain early in the morning. Local snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. High plus 2. Dauphin: Cloudy. Snow at times heavy beginning in the morning. Amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. High plus 1. Wind chill minus 7 in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Is when things start to really intensify, the low will begin to move east along with it a large area of snow will sit over our region with the most intense snowfall rates occurring over the interlakes, western Manitoba and sections of the eastern part of the province. Winds will be howling out of the north to northwest gusting to 70km/h at times. Widespread accumulations of 10cm are expected by morning with some areas in the southwest only seeing 2-4cm, but as mentioned in through western Manitoba and the escarpment east to the interlakes and the Manitoba/Ontario border seeing as much as 15-20cm by the morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the southwest (-1 to -4C). Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and the Manitoba lakes will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Winnipeg:  Snow. Snow mixed with rain early in the evening. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. Temperature steady near zero. Brandon: Snow. Local amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 8 overnight. Dauphin: Snow at times heavy. Amount 10 cm except 20 cm over higher terrain. Wind east 20 km/h becoming north 20 overnight. Low minus 4. Wind chill near minus 10.

Thursday: Will end up being the last day of significant snowfall, the low pressure system will begin to move into Ontario behind it cool arctic air will begin to filter in which will ultimately create a cold aspect to this storm system. Expect snow to persist throughout the day, with amounts in the range of as much as 15 to 25cm upwards of 30-50cm is also possible in higher terrain mainly in western Manitoba and interlake regions. What remains to be seen is how much snow melts on contact. So storm totals will vary. Temperatures for the afternoon will unfortunately drop to below zero with most regions seeing highs in the low  minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Winnipeg: Snow High zero. Snowfall amounts 5-10cm. Brandon: Snow. Snowfall amounts 2-4cm High minus 1. Dauphin: Snow. Snowfall amounts 10 to 15cm. High minus 1. 

Thursday Night: This storm system will move east into the Great Lakes as some of the snow will start to taper off in the in the southwest with some periods of snow  in all western parts of Manitoba. Heavy snow and blowing snow will continue to impact the southeastern half of the province up into the interlakes. In general expect another 5-10cm Behind this winds will start to increase and cold air will filter in behind it. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with windchill values in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Snow. Local blowing snow. Windy. Low minus 4. Brandon: Snow. Windy. Low minus 6. Periods of snow. Low minus 5.

Friday: The low pressure system that impacted the region should start pulling out far enough away that we can start seeing some clearing, cloudy skies should be in place for the day with some residual flurries. High temperatures wont budge too much, unfortunately. Highs will only end up reaching the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) for daytime temperatures. Winnipeg: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of flurries. Windy. High minus 1. Brandon: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. High minus 3. Dauphin: Cloudy. High minus 2.

  

Friday Night: Another low pressure system out in Saskatchewan will move into the region, late overnight into the morning hours in southwestern Manitoba bringing a brief but heavy blast of snow as it moves into those regions as for the rest of the south cloudy skies can be expected as the system moves into the province. Temperatures are expected to drop well into the low to mid minus single digits (-4 to -8C) with areas in the interlake regions dropping into the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). Winnipeg: Cloudy periods. Low minus 7. Brandon: Cloudy. Low minus 7. Dauphin: Cloudy. Low minus 6.

The Weekend: Looks like a brief clipper system will move through our area as it moves into the eastern half of Manitoba on Saturday. Calmer and sunnier weather is possible on Sunday. Daytime highs look like they might be in the low to mid minus single digits with overnight lows in the mid to upper minus single digits and low to mid minus teens. 

Stay tuned in the comments section the next few days for updates on the winter storm as it unfolds. 

-Mike McGregor

Exceptionally Warm Weekend on the Way

 Good evening everyone, looks like it could possibly end up being an exceptionally warm weekend for much of southern Manitoba and the forecast areas. My forecast for Friday ended up turning out on the warmer side of things with highs around 8-12C across the south. As for the pattern An upper ridge of high pressure will be setting up over the northern plains with a strong southwesterly flow in place. There is a possibility that this weather could end up breaking records. Find out how long it will last and how hot it will get . 

Saturday: Will end up being a day with partly cloudy skies and a small chance for showers. Winds will end up being out of the south to southwest, ahead of an area of low pressure off in the NW United States. Temperatures will soar and possibly into record values, the chance exists for highs in the low to mid teens (10 to 15C). If your over by the Manitoba lakes, highs may struggle to reach 10C as the lake water has cooled a fair bit since the summer. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon, High 14C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, High 13C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, high 12C. 

Saturday Night: A weak occluded front off of a low pressure system will move through the region on Saturday Night, bringing in heavier cloud and chance of showers. Though light rain should be expected, a majority of the showers should be in eastern sections of Manitoba by the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 5C).  overnight with areas just along the MB/SK border dropping below 0C to about -2C.

Sunday: A trough of low pressure will be moving into the western half of Manitoba by the afternoon into the evening. Ahead of it mostly cloudy skies can be expected in the morning hours with clearing and sunnier skies by the afternoon in the south central and southeastern half of the region. The exception being the western half of Manitoba seeing cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will soar once again into the low to mid teens in much of the region (10 to 15C), the only exception will be the interlakes where highs will only reach the high single digits (8 to 10C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 11C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 10C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy then becoming a mix of sun and cloud High 10C. 

Sunday Night: A cold front will be moving through the southern half of Manitoba overnight into Monday. behind this cooler air will filter in gradually. Unfortunately this will likely end the warm weather streak we have had. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (0 to -4C) to overnight into the morning. With areas in extreme southeastern Manitoba escaping the cold only seeing lows in the low single digits (0 to 4C). Winnipeg: Clearing, low 0C. Brandon: Clear. Low -3C. Dauphin: Clear low -1C. 

Sneak peak at The Week ahead: It appears a area of high pressure will move its way eastwards along with it some seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper single digits (5 to 10C) and lows in the lower single digits (2 to 5C) to the low minus single digits (-4C to 0C). There also is a chance for a storm system to impact the region on Tuesday/Wednesday with a chance at rain or snow. We will keep you updated on that as new model data comes in. 

Cold weather continues

 Much of southern Manitoba continues to sit in a trough of low pressure, the good news is that this pattern looks to shift in the next few days to slightly warmer weather.

 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the colder days of the week, high pressure will drift off to our east in the high plains and the Midwest of the USA by the morning hours moving into Ontario by afternoon. It will still make an impact on our weather and will allow for a southerly flow to take place. Sunny skies should be in place for much of the region during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C), with the warmest weather expected in the western half of Manitoba.  Winnipeg: Partly cloudy in the morning then Sunny, high 6C. Brandon: Sunny high 7C. Dauphin: Sunny High 8C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are forecast for a large part of our region , there’s a chance for some cloudy skies to develop by morning in the red river valley region. Overnight low temperatures will drop well into the mid to high minus single digits (-3 to -8C). Unfortunately it’ll end up being a cold Thursday morning. Winnipeg: Clear, becoming cloudy by morning low -5C. Brandon: Clear low -5C. Dauphin: Clear, low -2C. 

Thursday: The sun will be shining on Thursday for a good portion of southern Manitoba, temperatures are likely to soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) for the region with the possibility of some areas in southwestern Manitoba getting up to 10C. Winnipeg: Sunny high 6C. Brandon: Sunny, high 8C. Dauphin: Sunny high 9C. 

Thursday Night: Will end up being one of the warmer nights of the week, increasing cloudcover is likely ahead of a warm front approaching the region. Temperatures for a majority of the region will stay above zero in the low single digits ( 0 to 3C),  the exception being areas of the interlakes, western Manitoba along highway 1 up to portage la prairie and just west of Lake Manitoba, as well as eastern Manitoba. Areas in those regions will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). The odd exception being the red River valley and Winnipeg where temperatures will drop to a degree or 2 below zero (-1 to -3C) then warm up above zero (0 to 2C)  after midnight with cloud rolling in. Winnipeg: Clear, then increasing clouds temperature -2C rising to 2C by morning. Brandon: Clear then increasing clouds before morning, low -2C. Dauphin, clear then increasing clouds before morning. Low 2C. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies are expected during the day as a low pressure system moves through the region, there will be a chance for showers in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Any showers that form won’t last long and should move out of the region by the evening hours. Unfortunately because of model data differing it could either end up being in the low to mid teens for most or the mid to high single digits. For now I’m going with the Current NAM model guidance, it  shows areas in the southwest will have a chance at getting close to 10C. High temperatures will soar into the high single digits in the southwest (5 to 10C). Highs in the southeast and the interlakes and the west central part of Manitoba will only rise into the low to mid single digits, (2 to 5C). Regardless wear a jacket if you all can. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon . High 5C. Brandon: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon High 9C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers. High 9C. 

Friday Night: Cloudy skies should linger as an area of low pressure gradually exits the region, some residual showers should be hanging around in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba. Some clearing can be expected in extreme southwestern Manitoba, through the overnight period. Temperatures won’t dip much and will likely only drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C), southwestern Manitoba will be on the colder side of things where lows may drop closer to 0C. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the evening low 6C. Brandon: 30% chance of showers in the early evening then cloudy. Low 3C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the early evening. Low 6C.

The weekend: A slight ridge will build into the region and it will allow for temperatures to soar into the high single digits and low to mid teens on Saturday and Sunday, calm weather is also likely . Overnight lows will end up being the same with lows in the low to high single digits. 

Have a good rest of your week! Another blog will be written on Friday late morning. 

Unsettled weather makes a return.

 Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing average temperatures and calm weather over the past week and a half, that trend looks to continue. The only thing is that we can expect some slightly unsettled weather and possibly a tad colder weather. Read on to Find out what we can expect weather wise and how cold things will get. 

(Above: Rain is expected for the day on Wednesday into Thursday. Amounts will vary, it won’t be a wash out but in general I’m only expecting 5-10mm maybe even 15mm in sections of the white shell)

Wednesday: Will end up being a cool and cloudy to start off, an approaching area of low pressure and trough off in southwestern Manitoba in the morning will move into the red river valley and eastern sections of the province by afternoon. Ahead of it a southerly flow will bring in showers for the afternoon and some of them may end up being heavier in some regions of the southeast. On average amounts are expected to be between 5-10mm, with 15mm possible in some localities. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to high single digits (5 to 10C). The exception being southwestern Manitoba , where the sun might be able to come out with those places seeing highs in the high single digits to the low teens (10 to 15C). 

Wednesday Night: Showers are expected to continue for the evening hours in the red river valley and the southeast, with the exception of the southwestern half of Manitoba seeing clear skies. Cloudy skies are expected to stick around in the east overnight into the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits overnight (2 to 5C), some places may even get as cold as the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) especially just west of lake Manitoba.

Thursday: A northwesterly flow will take over and as a result cloudy skies are expected in the southeastern half of Manitoba during the day, the good news is that this will clear by the late afternoon hours. Sunny skies are expected in western Manitoba including the pembina valley just west of the red river valley. Temperatures will suffer however and won’t rise much in areas with heavier cloud, high single digits and low to mid teens are likely in the southwest part of Manitoba (8 to 14C). Areas in the southeast, interlakes and eastern sections can only expect to see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C). Dress Warm!! 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are likely for a majority of southern Manitoba, the exception being southeastern sections where fog is possible. It’s hard to tell on the cloud cover forecast model. Regardless, I’m expecting temperatures to drop into the low to mid minus single digits overnight. (-1 to -4C) The exception will be areas of parts of the parklands, and the Manitoba lakes where lows will stay above freezing in the low single digits (1 to 4C).

Friday: The forecast gets a bit more tricky on Friday an area of low pressure will be moving into the region not only bringing increasing clouds on the north side of it with a chance of showers for some sections, but also helping boost temperatures for parts of the south. Larger areas of showers will develop in the second half of the day towards the late afternoon in the interlakes and western and eastern central Manitoba. Temperatures on the day Friday will soar into the low to mid teens with areas as far north as Dauphin seeing those temperatures as Far East as Winnipeg and just east of the Red River Valley. The exception being the interlakes and parts of eastern Manitoba where highs will only reach the high single digits (7 to 9C). 

A peak at Friday Night and the weekend: Rainy conditions are expected with a majority of that happening on Friday night, on the backside of that system on the weekend cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely. Maybe even a chance for flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will once again sit in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs and overnight lows a couple degrees below or above zero during the overnight. Sunday will of course be the coldest of the weekend. We’ll talk about the snow more on Friday’s blog more in detail though. 

Warm Weather comes to an end

I just got back from a bike ride and I really enjoyed the  summer like weather we’re getting for the second time this fall. As you know much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing warmer than average temperatures with the average daytime highs getting 10-15 degrees above average, that pattern looks to break down however. A cold front will be cutting across Manitoba tonight into Tuesday. The unfortunate part of this is that our second summer will disappear. Better get out your pumpkin spice coffee or tea, and your warm blankets. Maybe might even need to turn on your furnace. Ugh the dreaded slow but deadly return to winter, I guess we don’t have to worry about Michael Meyers running around.  If you dare to read about Frosty the snowman . Find out how cold it will get and how long it will last for read on. 

Monday Night: An advancing cold front will move through the region over night into Tuesday, with it increasing cloud cover will fill into the area. A small chance of showers may come along with it as well. As for temperatures, we’re looking at temperatures dropping into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C). The coldest of the temperatures look to be mainly in the extreme western half of Manitoba, the warmer side of temperatures look to be in parts of the southwest into the eastern half of Manitoba and the interlakes. 

Tuesday: A arctic high pressure system will begin moving into the province, bringing in temperatures cooler than what we have been used to. Add on that cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday. Much of the region will see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 7C). It appears our daytimehigh numbers are pulling a April fools joke. 

Tuesday Night: A northerly flow will aid in clearing cloud cover mainly in southeast Manitoba, however western Manitoba cloudy skies are likely once again. The northerly flow will allow temperatures to drop drastically especially in the southeastern half and western portions, where lows will drop in the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Areas in the western half of Manitoba might even see lows of -5C. Areas from just west of Winnipeg into the interlakes regions and parts of western Manitoba will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 2C). 

Wednesday: An adjacent area of high pressure will be sitting over the northern prairies, a northwesterly flow will be in place during the day. Cloudy skies are likely in the early afternoon, before sunny skies expected to filter in. Unfortunately a mix of sun and some cloud cover will prevent any significant warming occurring in the southwest.  Sunny skies are still expected in the southeast. Temperatures for the day are likely to end up being in the mid single digits (5 to 8C), talk about a cold fall day. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are expected however a batch of cloud cover will develop in the southwestern half of Manitoba overnight into the early morning with cloudy skies filling in for the rest of the region. Temperatures will vary from being a couple degrees above zero in the pembina valley, and just south and southwest of Lake Manitoba (1 to 3C) Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and western Manitoba will see lows in the low to mid minus single digits (-3 to -6C). Areas in the assessippi regions may even see lows down to -9C. 

Second half of the week: Much of the region will continue to see temperatures in the low, mid and high single digits for daytime highs. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are also expected under the presence of high pressure. No significant rainfall or snowfall is on the horizon. 

October Heat Continues, Unsettled Weather to Follow?

 Much of our region has been experiencing an unusually warm start to October, temperatures on Tuesday soared to 32C in Brandon. The hottest October temperature ever recorded, since records began in 1941. According to Justin Oertel “the previous record happened on October 5th, 2011 the High was +30.9C and October 1st, 1992 the High was +30.9C” This trend looks to continue only for a few days, as a persistent ridge of high pressure sits over our area, a trough of low pressure will move into the region by Thursday and that will begin our transition to more seasonal temperatures. Find out what this means for the weather ahead and find out what that transition will look like. 

Wednesday: During the day a large area of low pressure will sit off to our west ahead of it a southerly flow will contribute to sunny skies with some clouds in the southwestern half of Manitoba and warm temperatures for the day, again another day to get out and enjoy what’s left of summer. Temperatures for the afternoon will soar into the mid to high twenties for the area, with a chance at seeing some areas approaching or surpassing 30C (25 to 31C). Winnipeg: Sunny High 28C. Brandon: Sunny: High 27C. 

Wednesday Night: A stationary front will be sitting over central Manitoba by the overnight hours. The southerly flow will continue and not much in the way of cloudcover or precipitation is expected, temperatures will drop only into the low to mid teens, with the cooler weather expected in the western half of Manitoba. (12-14C western Manitoba), (14 to 16C eastern Manitoba). Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear low 12C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Thursday: Some cloudy skies are likely in the morning hours ahead of a cold front for a large section of south central and southeastern Manitoba, heading into the afternoon sunny skies should begin to take over.  A cold front will begin crossing into western Manitoba come the afternoon hours, this front will begin allowing northwesterly winds to move into only the western half of Manitoba. Get outside because this will end up being the last day for any summer like warmth. Temperatures for the day will soar into the low 20’s (21-24C) in the southwest with temperatures in the southeastern half seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s (25-28C). Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 26C. Brandon: Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 22C. Dauphin: Cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 21C. 

This is a snapshot of what could be thunderstorms and showers moving into the south central region of Manitoba on Thursday night. We’ll be keeping you informed on this. 

Thursday Night: During Thursday evening, a cold front will be sitting over the south central areas of Manitoba from mainly just south of lake Manitoba and points east. This front will move east southeast throughout the overnight, along and ahead of this front partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with heavier cloud expected in the southwest mainly behind the cold front. Increasing amounts of instability will be moving into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba during the overnight period. Generally 800-1,000 J/KG of CAPE can be expected, with only 100-300m2s2 for shear which means if there’s storms they won’t be organized and may only be scattered to isolated in nature. I’m expecting showers and thunderstorms to be a potential overnight from Portage La Prairie south to the American border north into the interlakes east to the MB/ON border, and south and west looping back through Winkler and Pilot Mound. The bulk of the activity occurring west of and in the Red River Valley. No severe weather is expected however, some storms could become strong however. Thunderstorms should clear by the early morning hours to near sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens in the southeast (12 to 15C) , with areas of the western half of Manitoba dropping anywhere between the mid single digits and low teens (6 to 14C).  Winnipeg: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low 15C. Brandon: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 30% chance of showers overnight. Dauphin: Mostly cloudy, clearing before morning. Low 6C.  

Friday: Will end up being one of the more unsettled days of the week, during the morning hours a batch of precipitation will be moving through the southeastern portion of Manitoba as the cold front moves into Ontario. Behind it a secondary low pressure system in North Dakota will start shifting north and a warm front attached to the cold front may end up moving north into our region. If not it will end up missing southern Manitoba but there still is a likelihood of us expecting precipitation. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies, before another area of precipitation moves into the area during the late afternoon in southern sections of Manitoba, model data is all over the place in regards to precipitation placement and amounts. The GDPS shows a batch moving up from the dakotas in the afternoon through the evening in the southwest to the Red River Valley, while the NAM is showing nothing on Friday until late Friday evening into the overnight. Looking over the fronts and the fact that there is a marginal risk of severe storms south of the border I cannot discount a chance some or most of the showers and storms may cross over into Manitoba. Regardless expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and towards suppertime for the Red River Valley and southeastern sections, with a smaller chance of showers and thunderstorms occurring towards the latter half of the day in the southwest. Temperatures will soar only into the mid to high teens across the board with areas struggling to reach 20C. (15-18C)  Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon high 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 18C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon high 15C. 

Friday Night: That low pressure system I mentioned about on Friday will be sitting stationary over North Dakota overnight, with it a large area of showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected in the eastern red river valley through eastern portions of Manitoba in the early evening before clearing. The unfortunate news however is that behind this system cooler weather will filter in with it being a cooler night than expected for most. Clearer skies in the southwest will contribute to cooler than average temperatures overnight, with lows in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) and areas in the southeast seeing more in the way of heavier cloudcover so lows will only drop into the low teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Cloudy with 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Low 12C. Brandon: Cloudy in the evening then clearing low 8C. Dauphin: Partly Cloudy, low 7C. 

The weekend: Much of Southern Manitoba will likely be seeing cloudy skies with some sun mixed in, another low pressure system looks to start moving into the area on Saturday with a chance at substantial rainfall in the Red River Valley, east/southeastern Manitoba and parts of the Pembina Valley with another chance at thunderstorms. Calmer weather is likely on Sunday as the low moves into Ontario. Daytime highs will sit in the low to mid teens, and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with Saturday nights lows being a tad warmer in the southeast around 10-15C than on Sunday Night.