Showers and Thunderstorms and cool weather this e

This blog will be brief as I am not feeling the best, there will be a slightly unsettled weekend in store. For those of you wondering a strong low pressure system will be sitting off to the south in north dakota. Thunderstorms will likely develop in a hot and humid environment in North Dakota on Saturday which with the low pressure system they will move east into the areas of Minnesota. 

Showers are likely on Saturday and saturday night with thunderstorms from Minnesota moving north and west into Manitoba on Saturday night weakening with some occasional rumbles of thunder possible overnight into Sunday morning. A large low will pivot and move north on Sunday this low is a bit weird in how it will move, it almost will look like a mini hurricane on sattelite. Remnant showers and thunderstorms may continue over into Sunday morning. Showers scattered in nature will likely persist into Sunday afternoon. Best chances are likely south of the international border. Remnant showers are likely across southern sections of the province on Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will likely be cooler than average unfortunately with temperatures in the teens more than likely for highs and lows. 

Showers and Thunderstorms possible, hot weather returns next week.

This blog will be brief. southern sections in Manitoba will likely experience another day and usettled weather and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves through a slightly unstable airmass. The details for the weekend will be included in this blog with information on the threat for thunderstorms and hot weather returning next week.

Thursday (convective potential shown above for tomorrow afternoon and evening based on the NAM above): High temperatures for the day on Thursday will rise into the high 20's into the southeast part of Manitoba, with areas behind the cold front seeing values in the mid teens. There is a risk however that not all areas will see these values due to cloudcover in the morning hours. During the morning hours there will be a batch of showers in southwestern Manitoba which may be embedded with thunder. Later during the morning hours there may be some convection remnants in the Interlake region which will move east into Lake Winnipeg and the Nopiming provincial park regions. There may be a chance that those showers could extend into the red River Valley during the early morning hours and if they do they will clear by the afternoon bringing some sunshine and temperatures will rebound into the 20s as I mentioned. Convective available potential energy levels will rise into the high 700 to 1000 joules per kilogram which is the equivalent of minor to moderate instability if thunderstorms develop they will have some shear to work with. Generally in a area of 100 to 200 SRH values should be present which will allow for some storm organization. Because it is so late in the season storms will not be able to intensify at the levels they would have in July so if storms form there will be risk for marginal size hail up to the size of one centimeter or two centimeters there also will be a risk for rainfall amounts of twenty five millimeters to fifty millimeters in heavier storms. Wind gusts will not exceed 80 kilometers an hour in thunderstorms. Thursday night showers and thunderstorms will likely only impact the southeastern part of Manitoba and move into northwestern Ontario after sunsets,overnight low temperatures will drop into the low teens in the southeast at Red River Valley and areas in the southwest will see lows in the high single digits .

Friday: This is when the forecast gets a little bit more interesting a frontal boundary will slide S from northern sections Manitoba into the southern part of the province bringing with it Out ahead of a temperatures in the low 20s and high teens for areas in the lakes Sunny skies are likely for the first half of the afternoon before clouds roll in for the 2nd half of the afternoon. A batch of showers and likely embedded thunderstorms given the time of year we are in we cannot rule out the potential for some thunderstorms as remnant instability sits over the region with values in the 100 to 600 joules per kilogram range. It is not likely that these storms will reach the severe limits just your typical garden variety type thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms may persist into the early evening to mid evening hours on Friday . 

Friday Night: I know those of you are wondering with the frontal system passing into the south despite there being northerly flow temperatures will not drop below 10 degrees for the South Central and SE parts of the province if you are wondering about frost areas of the southwest should be more concerned as clear skies are likely and temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high single digits with areas in more rural regions more susceptible to frost developments this is because cloud cover will likely be in place overnight in SE. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will likely take a little bit of a plunge for the weekend Saturday being the coolest day with high temperatures only reaching the high teens which is around our normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the mid to high single digits, in the southwest with areas in the red river valley and the southeast in the low teens. On the day Sunday temperatures will rebound into the low 20s, Areas in the southwest may be lucky and could see highs around 24 to about 25 degrees celsius overnight lows will again drop into the low teens to mid for Sunday nights. 

Next week: It appears though a fairly marginal ridge will build into the region which will allow for our temperatures during a week to return into the high 20s at low 30s there is also a possibility that humidity may build in with this as well but not to summertime levels so we may still see the potential for some instability building in there will be really no significant level of energy for severe thunderstorms so we're looking at more typical fall dry heat. Overnight lows will be in the mid to high teens as well. 

Cool Start To The Week, Frost Possible. Signs of above normal temperatures returning. :-)

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing a cooler than average next few days before potentially hotter and more unsettled weather returns, this blog will cover the outlook for Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a risk of frost tonight as well. So details about this will definitely be brought up. 

Tonight: Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low single digits tonight, there is a possibility that some areas of southern Manitoba may see lows below 0C. High pressure will build south into northwestern Ontario tonight bringing a very cool airmass for this time of year. 

Tuesday: A southerly flow will return for the day on Tuesday with high pressure moving east, temperatures will return to normal daytime highs in the low 20's and mid 20's in western Manitoba. Below Normal values again will likely return on Tuesday night which is of concern because frost this time of year is not really expected, temperatures will drop again into the low to mid single digits. I do miss waking up to high temperatures in the teens. Fall is coming. 

Wednesday: A warm front will move in on Wednesday with a increasing amount of cloudcover, high temperatures will reach the high teens and low 20's. The warmest of the air will be in the southwest part of Manitoba. Wednesday night: A frontal system will move through on Wednesday Night, with a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms especially in western Manitoba areas. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens on Wednesday Night, which is typical of lows in July or August. 

The Second half of the week: Warmer than average temperatures in the high 20's may be returning only on the day Thursday with some possible instabilty or thunderstorms, only for a brief period of time.  However it looks like the pattern may take a while to evolve as ridging in the summer time usually develops quicker, than this time of year which may push most of the warmth to next week as heat remains in Saskatchewan. Regardless warmer temperatures are here finally and I hope that we can enjoy the last little bit of the summer.

-Mike McGregor

Heat Ends Thunderstorm Chances return.

 Southern Manitoba experienced a really hot humid weekend with high temperatures in the mid 30s sparking heat warnings across a large section of the prairies. The good news is that this pattern has eased as a trough digging in to the west coast, is beginning to shift east into our region bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  A frontal system will be approaching southern Manitoba this evening and overnight bringing another round of unsettled weather, which will influence our weather for the first half of the week. The unfortunate thing is with our weather pattern this past summer is that we have not received the rainfall we needed, the Gulf of Mexico rarely opened up for moisture source due to the constant cold air being shunted south. I hope that the rain we get tonight will help with this, as we are in a pretty large moisture defecit. 

 (Above: Various Model Solutions are hinting at showers and thunderstorms impacting southern sections of Manitoba tonight, areas of the southeast will more than likely see a large swath of rainfall amounts between 10 to 40mm. 

Monday: This afternoon as I write this there are thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba impacting Lake Winnipeg and Victoria Beach areas there is also some moisture streaming north from Montana into the dakotas, dewpoints in the mid to high teens are likely today. Based on what I am seeing temperatures today will rise into the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba with areas of southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake seeing high temperatures in the low twenties to mid twenties. This afternoon there is a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the main batch of convection will come in later on tonight. This afternoon there is a chance for some severe thunderstorms in southeastern portions of Manitoba not including the city Winnipeg as well with capping in place storms may be unable to develop until later on when the cold front interacts with the instability Of 1000 joules per kilogram available for storms . The one thing I'm noticing on the latest HRR R model run is that a chance of convection appears to develop in southwestern Manitoba moving into the Red River Valley by the evening. Some of which of them could be severe I will have to monitor that as the HRRRR is the only model run depicting a multi cell or supercell developing by evening in the southwest. 

Tonight: There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, initially there will be thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba with only isolated chances and some of them may be severe. another round of thunderstorms and showers are likely to move into southern sections of the province from North Dakota during the overnight. The most severe of thunderstorms occurring south of the international border and through Emerson through Steinbach into southeastern section of the province and the white shell. Areas further west including the Red River Valley and portions of the Pembina Valley and the Interlakes can expect showers with isolated rumbles of Thunder there may be some Heavier rain occurring in the more extreme southern portions of those areas. The RDPS,GFS,GDPS model are the only models hinting at a large swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain occurring over the red river valley, areas S and E of Winnipeg may be impacted by the heavier rains as depicted by the NAM and the HRRR model run, with Areas along the Pembina Valley into the Red River valley and Lake Winnipeg seeing amounts between 10 and twenty millimeters. Areas from highway 59 Steinbach Emerson into the kenora Regions can expect ten to twenty five to thirty millimeters of rain. If you're going to look at model data in comparison to all the runs a general swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain is possible anywhere from Portage La Prairie East to the Ontario border and south to Emerson, it is nearly impossible to forecast local rainfall amounts in convection so a general amount of precipitation forecast versus exact will help determine the probability of receiving more than twenty mm of rain. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop behind the cold front with a vast area of western Manitoba seeing lows in the mid teens and areas in the southeast and the mid to high teens as well as the Inter lakes. 

(Rainfall amounts as forecast by the RDPS weather model, note amounts may not be exact, however this is a pretty accurate picture of what the weather pattern is holding.)

Tuesday: Remnant convection will continue during the morning hours in southeastern Manitoba if a majority of the storms remain in extreme southeastern portions as well as northwestern Ontario general showers are expected during the morning with cloud cover during the afternoon clearing by mid to late afternoon hours in the province with cooler temperatures likely for Tuesday. For the day Tuesday high temperatures will likely reach the mid to high teens some areas may surpass 20 degrees if the sun can come out by the afternoon hours as high pressure starts building in. Tuesday Night: The first cold blast of the season is likely with a northerly flow behind the cold front and overnight lows only dropping down into the mid to high single digits For most ( 5 to 10C) some areas in the parklands portions Manitoba may drop down as cold as four degrees Celsius. Areas over the waters and Manitoba Lakes especially by Victoria Beach winnipeg Beach,Gimli Arnes and Delta Beach can expect overnight lows to stay in the mid teens because the waters are warmer this time of year. 

Wednesday: High temperatures on the day Wednesday will be similar to that of Tuesday with a large section of the province seeing highs in the mid to high teens some areas especially by dolphin and the parklands will see highs around 20 degrees there will be a little bit of heat centered over southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday with that region seeing highs in the high twenties to low thirties. sunny skies are likely on the day Wednesday with very little in the way of humidity. Wednesday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop once again down into the high single digits, areas in the Interlakes and parklands however will be under the influence of a warm front so overnight lows will likely drop into the low teens in those regions.

Second Half Of The Week: Data is showing that a through will begin developing over southern Manitoba into Ontario during the second half of the week which will likely bring cooler temperatures I don't see a change in the pattern in this until least middle or too late next week as ridging begins to develop .Another frontal system will move into the province on the day Thursday bring another chance for unsettled weather and showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the period will remain in the high teens to low 20's and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with areas at times dropping into the mid single digits. Fall weather is slowly approaching. 

(If you're wondering where I get my weather information from I use pivotal weather.com as well I use nex lab college of du page meteorology, I use the National Weather Service weather prediction Center for weather frontal systems as well as the aviation weather services maps that pilots use.  I also look at model consensus on weather logics and I use a blend of the Nam HRRR RAP as well as the RDPS model to make weather forecast conclusions.)

Shower and Thunderstorm chances return, severe weather again a risk

 Southern Manitoba is at risk again for increased amounts of unsettled weather with the risk of thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms. As a large ridge sits off to the south in the central United states a trough of low pressure will cascade over western Canada bringing another area of low pressure which will move into central canada and Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather pattern and temperature pattern as we also expect a strong ridge to build over us this weekend. 

Tonight: A system in Montana and southeastern Saskatchewan will increase the convective potential. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens, there is a large area of CAPE into the 1,000 range in southwestern portions of Manitoba. As a result there is a likelihood that thunderstorms will develop in montana and drift north into all areas of western Manitoba. There is a high chance that those areas could see rainfall totals in the 25 to 50mm range, there is also a threat for large hail and damaging winds. I do not see tornadoes at all as a threat. 

Thursday: Thunderstorms will continue in the morning hours in western Manitoba with the highest chances in central Manitoba showers may spread across the south in the morning, potentially preventing storm energy from being able to build up in the afternoon. Hoewever if showers clear by the late morning storm potential may increase.  Latest data right now is also showing clearing coming by the afternoon hours, a trough will sit off to the west in western Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of moisture will move in from the United states covering much of Manitoba with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens. As a result MUCAPES are forecast to be in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range, over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage storms either will only impact eastern Manitoba and the Lake Winnipeg regions or completely hit the red river valley and eastern sections of the province. We will find out more about the threat area in the latest update from environment canada in the morning, based on what I see currently there is a threat for thunderstorms across southern Manitoba on the day Thursday with the southeast at the biggest risk for severe thunderstorms, areas in western Manitoba could have training thunderstorms. TEMPERATURES: Forecast to be in the mid 20's in the southwest and the high 20's and low 30's in the southeast with humidex in the mid to high 30's. 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are forecast again with overnight lows in the mid teens in the southwest and west, areas in the southeast can expect lows in the high teens. (15-18C). Some remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible as the area of low pressure moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Friday: Calm weather is expected and the same for friday night, under the presence of a building ridge of high pressure. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid to high 20's. Friday Night: Overnight lows likely in the mid to high teens with clear skies and a westerly flow likely. This is really good because it will prevent us from seeing significant smoke from filtering in. I dont see any northwesterly flow developing this weekend allowing that as a potential. 

The Weekend (Above): The weather starts becoming more interesting, troughing is likely over the southwestern United States which will create sort of a digging southwards then a extension north and eastwards that will basically allow the jetstream to sit over our region. What that means is there will more than likely be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, there could be a threat for storms some may be severe. Also the heat runs into Saturday and Sunday as we see high temperatures once again in the high 20's and low 30's. There may or may not be higher levels of humidity that is still to be determined. Regardless an interesting end of meteorlogical summer is likely. 

Unsettled Weather Set To Run Over Southern Manitoba

 Southern Sections of Manitoba will be in the crosshairs of remnants of Tropical storm hillary this week, which is unheard of for this part of the world. The upper level flow and jetstream is setup with a large ridge over the northern United States. We are sitting on the north side of that with the main jetstream over top of us, which will increase the chances again for showers and thunderstorms and ridge riding low pressure systems. Find out what that means for us in this weeks blog.

Tuesday: During the day Tuesday, remnants of Tropical storm Hillary will be moving through central areas of Manitoba bringing with it a chance at convection and rainfall with amounts of 5 to 15mm. Cloudy skies are forecast once again across southern Manitoba however that may change as I am seeing some forecast potential of high pressure off to the northeast, despite this a frontal system will sit off to the southwest which may allow for some form of trigger for thunderstorms in southeastern Manitoba during the afternoon and early evening. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range which will allow for marginally severe to possibly severe thunderstorms. Temperatures in the southeast part of Manitoba will rise into the mid to high 20's in that region, areas in southwestern Manitoba will however only see high values in the high teens to low 20's. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range, not significant shear will be present so if storms do develop they may have some difficulty organizing and they will be very isolatd. Regardless a risk for thunderstorms will be likely across a large portion of southern Manitoba with areas in the southeast at a moderate risk level.

Tuesday Night: Showers or Thunderstorms will exit the province by the evening. Overnight temperatures in the southeast will likely drop into the high teens and areas in the southwest in the mid teens. Cloudy skies will likely remain in place. 

Wednesday: Temperatures on the day Wednesday will even be hotter with high temperatures forecast into the mid to high 20's. The overall picture for the day is that a frontal system will sit off to our south as the ridge drags south, with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens the instability numbers willl only grow into the 700 to 1,500J/Kg range. There will be a risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Best chances for storms again appear to be in isolated pockets across the south. Nothing organized looks likely, however any storms that form will have the potential to bring large hail and damaging winds. We will monitor this forecast for updates. Overnight clearing can be expected with overall temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

Second Half of the week: More showers and thunderstorms look likely with a few more disturbances moving over the top of the ridge over the United states. Temperatures for this period will remain in the mid to high 20's for highs and lows in the mid to upper teens. 

Calm Weekend, Transition expected for Southern regions of Manitoba. Pattern Change on the Way!!!

 Southern Manitoba has experienced a wild past 24 hours with wind gusts associated with a cold front exceeding 90 km an hour at times. As a result, there has been reports of downed trees and powerlines across the province. The weather into our weekend can be expected to be calmer and quieter as a ridge builds over the central United States. A more robust pattern for storm chances increase along with heat heading into next week. Find out how this transition will occur and the weather we can expect before all this unfolds in this weekends blog. 

(Above:) Hot weather is likely on the day Friday with highs in the high 20’s and low 30’s. 

Friday: Southern Manitoba can expect a hot day on the day Friday with high temperatures in the low 30s, especially along the American border and high 20s, areas in along the American border may soar past the 30C mark. Moisture levels however will be low as dew points will not be able to climb into the teens until the early evening. Sunny skies are expected for the day on Friday however there may be some local haze as smoke from wildfires filters in to the region. Should be less than on Wednesday. \

Friday night: a cold front will be moving into southern Manitoba during the overnight. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected the HRRR is showing a line of thunderstorms moving into western Manitoba during the overnight. However not all models are latching on to this idea, if severe storms move into western Manitoba during the overnight they will have the potential to produce marginal to large size hail with strong winds and heavy rain. However there is limited moisture which may inhibit the chances for any thunderstorms to develop, weather severe weather develops is still unknown at this point. General MUCape is expected to be between 800 to 1500 with dew point temperatures in the mid teens. If thunderstorms are able to develop ahead of the cold front there will be the potential for large hail damaging winds intense lightning and a small chance that some of these storms could rotate. Confidence on severe weather is low at this point however we will update you if there are any model changes throughout the day on Friday. Temperatures will likely drop into the high teens and low 20's, with areas in the southeast part of Manitoba the warmest. 

Saturday: It generally drier day should occur on The day Saturday if there remains any convection in the morning should clear by the afternoon, sunny skies are likely on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s in southwestern Manitoba and mid to high 20s in southeastern Manitoba. Smoke will begin to build back in to southern Manitoba on saturday evening, behind the front. This will be brief as another wave of southerly winds move in on Sunday. Saturday night, increasing cloud with some cooler temperatures are likely with lows in the mid teens are a possibility. 

Sunday: Warmer weather is likely with a return of high temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Increasing cloud is possible on the day Sunday with some showers possible towards the later half of the day. Overnight more cloud is likely with lows in the low teens in the west and mid to high teens in the east. 

The Week Ahead: Warmer weather is likely during the week with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms as a heat dome sits off to our south and the storm track sits over our region. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's are likely with lows in the teens, some days especially earlier in the week may see temperatures in the high teens for highs and low teens for lows. Next week the moisture leftover from Hillary (Hurricane hitting southwest USA will start filling into the jet stream next week impacting us likely. I’ll have more details about that next blog on Monday.