Heat and Humidity briefly return, late season severe weather threat arrives.

 Hello folks, this could be an interesting next few days ahead. Our region of the province will likely encounter another round of unusual warmth, humidity and summer like temperatures. Whats unusual is we have to look out for severe thunderstorms at the start of the week. Find out more about the severe weather potential and when this pattern will change and what to expect for the first half of the week. 

Monday: During the day a warm front will be expected to move into southern regions of Manitoba, this low pressure system will lift north into southern sections of Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of CAPE 1,000 to 1,500 from southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley is likely to take shape. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the high teens to low 20’s in much of southern sections of Manitoba, the dew point will not to be too far off from the actual temperature so the humidex values will rise into the high 20’s to low 30’s which gives the average humidity levels close to 50 to 75%.

(Above): HRRR model suggesting the possibility of severe weather in the red river valley and interlakes areas of Manitoba after development in the southwest part of Manitoba. 

NAM model below suggesting similar conditions except later in the evening, and further north.

For the day Monday, model data appears to be in agreement now place in regards to placement and timing, as last night was still all over the place. The HRRR is in agreement with a lot of the higher resolution models and the NAM, which places thunderstorms developing and moving through the southwest part of Manitoba during the morning and early afternoon. By early to mid afternoon most of the instability will have built up. The red river valley, interlakes area in Manitoba should be on the lookout for showers and thunderstorm development during the afternoon, before a slight risk for severe storms moves in by late afternoon. 

(Dave Carlsens Tweet above talking about the severe weather threat possible later tod afternoon into the evening.)
There also will be a risk area in southwestern Manitoba with higher supercell composite values with the risk for tornadic development moving east as the evening goes on. Upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex by evening is possible that could travel east into the red river valley, supercells are still possible. Despite the sun setting earlier now storms will be fuelled by a large area of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg of CAPE with Energy Helicity values of 1 to 4 and shear in the range of 30 to 50 knots which will be Centred over the red river valley and southeast Manitoba as the cold front moves through in the evening. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be possible as they move east as a cold front Stay tuned to Manitoba weather center for updates, as well as my twitter page. 

Monday Night: Expect any thunderstorms to clear the area by evening, and late evening a northwesterly flow will take hold. Mostly cloudy skies are expected into the day on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tuesday: Another calm sunny day is in store with a cold front moving through on the day Tuesday, a small chance of showers is expected in the southeast part of Manitoba. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday Night: A high pressure system will begin to dig southwards with a large area of cloud cover, moving southwards with it. Cloudy skies are expected by the morning hours on Wednesday. 

Wednesday: Much of the same weather can be expected with cloudy skies and high temperatures only rising into the mid to high teens. Areas in more rural regions will be in the higher single digits . 

Slightly cooler weather with Showers and Thunderstorms

 Southern sections of Manitoba will likely experience a period of unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, a low pressure system will be moving into southern Manitoba bringing with it another round of unsettled weather with showers and potential thunderstorms. Find out when and where in this weeks blog. 

Wednesday: This is when the pattern begins to change, a low pressure system will be off to our southwest in Montana, ahead of it a large area of cloud cover will filter into the region bringing with it a moist airmass. There will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as the system approaches, there also will be a large area of showers moving through the central parts of Manitoba in through the interlakes and western Manitoba including southwestern Manitoba. There’s a smaller chance for showers south of the Manitoba lakes. Amounts of 5-10mm is likely in the areas that receive rainfall. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will reach the mid to high teens with areas closer to the American border along and south of highway 1 seeing highs in the low 20’s. 

Wednesday night (Above simulated radar, lightning density, and rainfall amounts in inches for Wednesday Night): This is where the weather gets interesting, by early evening a large area of warm air will move north as a warm front sits just to the south of the border. This will allow thunderstorms to develop over southwestern Manitoba moving into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. As these sit over the same area with the warm front staying just south of the border there’s the  likelihood of them training and moving over the same area for long periods of time, the reason being the flow will be west to east and the warm air advection will not move much further north than just south of the lakes. This may increase the risk for flash flooding potential. I will monitor this as more data comes in. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits to the low teens, on Wednesday night. 

Thursday and Friday: Calmer weather will arrive , there will be mostly cloudy skies expected on the day Thursday. There will also be cooler temperatures with highs on Thursday reaching the mid teens. Thursday night much of the same with low temperatures reaching the low teens and high single digits. Friday will only see highs in the low teens. 

Above Seasonal Temperatures Diminishing, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to start the week.

 I apologize for not having any blog posts on the hot weather over the last few days. I took some time off for the long weekend, it was enjoyable as I was able to spend time with family and friends. Anyways Southern sections of Manitoba are likely to expect another day or 2 of hot weather, there’s also a chance for some showers and thunderstorms find out when and where in this blog weather update. 

Temperatures above for the day on Wednesday showing the reality of the heat over western Canada. Some areas seeing highs in the low 30’s. 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the nicest days of the week , high pressure will be off to our east in the northeastern USA which will contribute to a warmer than average airmass over our area. Temperatures during the day will soar into the mid to high 20’s with the hottest of the weather in southwestern Manitoba into the red river valley. 

Wednesday Night: A warm front and low pressure system will move through our area overnight the dynamics however are not as strong for severe weather than previously thought. There’s high amounts of instability with Thunderstorm energy in the 1,000 to 2,000 range but there will be sufficient capping (prevents storm formation as a layer of warm air overtakes areas where cold air is needed for storms) and limited amounts of moisture. If storms do form only isolated non severe thunderstorms are possible, with a very slight chance of a isolated severe storm. Best threat is in the red river valley late night early morning.  Temperatures will sit in the high teens to low 20’s on Wednesday night. 

Thursday: The low pressure system I mentioned will move out of the region bringing with it a chance for some showers or weak thunderstorms in the morning hours. Mainly cloudy skies are possible for the rest of the day with most of the moisture moving off to the east. Temperatures will probably reach the high teens to low 20’s for, the coldest of the air is expected to be in the west with warmer highs in the mid 20’s in extreme southeast Manitoba. 

Thursday night: Calmer weather is likely with a chance of clearing in some areas of the west. The cloud cover, fortunately will sit over the eastern half of Manitoba. With us being on the right side of high pressure it will give us a northerly flow aloft. Our temperatures will drop possibly into the mid single digits (3 to 5C) for the first time this fall especially in western Manitoba, sections of the red river valley and the interlakes. Winnipeg and southeastern Manitoba may see lows in the low teens. 

Friday: Will end up being sunny but a cooler than average day, our highs will only reach the mid to high teens. A persistent northerly flow will be part of the issue. Friday night temperatures will drop into the mid to high single digits across the south, these are more like October overnight lows. Frost is also a risk , once again I hate that darn Jack Frost. 😆😆. 

The Weekend: Warmer weather arrives , on Saturday temperatures in the high teens to low 20’s is possible overnight lows in the high single digits in the west and east and low teens in the red river valley. Most of the warmer weather coming on Sunday, I’m looking at a return to temperatures in the high 20’s on Sunday and into the week where high temperatures in the low 30’s are possible with lows in the mid teens to low 20’s.  Humidity may increase as well so we will have to watch for showers, thunderstorms. However it could end up being a dry heat with current data showing low dew points. That could change especially near the end of the week as a trough of low pressure builds in. That’s another reason why I don’t trust long range forecasts , data is inconsistent. 

Heat and Humidity increasing , potential chances of showers and thunderstorms

This week in southern Manitoba will experience one of the warmest rounds of weather we have seen in at least a few weeks, a ridge will move in over our area. A southerly to southwesterly flow will move into our region, boosting temperatures as we move towards the middle of the week. 

However today a trough of low pressure will be moving  out of our region bringing in a northwesterly flow aloft, earlier today showers and some heavy rainfall moved through as the trough sat over our area. Cloudy skies are likely in areas of south central and southeastern Manitoba today, with sunny skies in the southwest part of Manitoba. Temperatures today will only sit in the 19-21C range to low 20’s, with the warmer air in the western half of Manitoba. Overnight low temperatures tonight will be cooler, just below or around 10C in forested regions of southeast Manitoba. Temperatures elsewhere will drop into the low to mid teens. For the rest of the week, there’s a good chance of some beautiful warm weather moving in. How warm???!! 

Temperatures on Tuesday will jump into the mid to high 20’s, then on Wednesday we will finally start seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s, on Thursday temperatures in the high 20’s to low 30’s maybe mid 30’s. Dewpoint temperatures will also sit in the mid to high teens, which may increase the overall humidex to the low to mid 30’s then on Thursday into the high 30’s. Overnight lows this week will drop into the low to mid teens on Tuesday night and on Wednesday night into the high teens to low 20’s in the parklands. There’s likely going to be an increased risk of potential thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday  as a low pressure system with a cold front moves in from northern Saskatchewan.

(Above Wednesday and Thursday data for storm instability).  Whether severe storms will happen is dependant on how much moisture and instability arrives. Capping may be an issue but this far out is hard to say for sure. We will monitor it. This weather will be quite warm for the month of September our average is 21C this time of year in Winnipeg. 

Have a great week everyone!

Heat and Humidity Return; increasing severe weather threat

 Southern Manitoba is poised to experience another round of heat and humidity, surprisingly we are already into late August and by this time we would already be seeing cooler temperatures more similar to fall. Weird weather eh!??? 🤦‍♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣 However you can thank all of this heat and humidity to a ridge of high pressure that brought temperatures into the low to mid 30’s over BC and Alberta, this pattern won’t stay as the ridge moves through our area it will be flattening in the process as a low pressure system rides over the northern end of it. This could potentially lead to some hot humid and stormy weather, find out when and where in this weekend’s blog. Details for Friday night are included. 😊. 

(Above: Dewpoint temperatures forecast for Saturday evening, this humidity will stick around for Sunday as well. This humidity will provide a perfect environment for severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening).

Friday Night: This is when the humidity will increase and most of the noticeable mild weather arrives, high pressure will move off to our east allowing for a southerly flow to continue to spill northwards. Mild overnight lows in the mid to high teens are likely in central and eastern Manitoba, low to mid teens are likely in the western part of Manitoba. There’s a chance for increasing clouds in the southeast with a very small chance for showers in the southeast portion of Manitoba. 

Saturday: Will start off cloudy in the southeast but overall it should clear out by the noon hour, Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s, dew point temperatures will rise into the high teens to low 20’s. It will end up feeling like the mid to high 30’s with the humidex. Of concern later in the day will be a warm front coming through which will increase the risk of storms along a large area of 1,000 to 2,500 J/Kg of CAPE with 1-4 on the supercell composite scale which could bring in possible supercells in the late afternoon  which will be centered over south central and southwest Manitoba. Isolated to scattered storms are possible and some of them may end up being severe. Scattered storms are possible during the late afternoon. A better chance comes in on Saturday night.

Saturday Night: This is where things get interesting, a low pressure system with a attached warm front will move through southwestern Manitoba during the early evening likely encountering an already hot and humid airmass. There are signals that a cluster of strong thunderstorms may form along the boundary before dinner time south of lake Manitoba with them moving into the red river valley by the evening hours. If you are planning for camping best advice is to prepare for deteriorating weather conditions and pay attention to weather alerts that get posted. Once storms move through, temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens staying well above our normal overnight lows. Some areas near lake Manitoba and lake Winnipeg may end up being cooler with lows around 10 to 15C. 

Sunday: Will be another hot and humid day with a stream of moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico, the latest NAM 18Z has an area of showers moving in during the morning with clearing during the afternoon which seems to be an outlier at this point in time. As current thinking I’m sitting with is that with the heat and humidity increasing there will be another day of possible unstable weather. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s ahead of a cold front, dewpoint temperatures will also rise throughout the day but will drop off as the front moves east which will make most humidity stick around in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. If you combine the fact dew points will be in the high teens and low 20’s, sufficient CAPE will exist which will allow large instability upwards of 3,000J/Kg. Thunderstorms look possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon into the late afternoon. The threat shifts east into the supper hours into evening for the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. If the front slows down there will exist a severe threat further west than Winnipeg, which could give the valley a chance of convection. Based on data the best areas for convection on Sunday evening are portage la prairie all points east to the Ontario border, so all of south central southeast Manitoba into Eastern North Dakota and NW Minnesota. It will not be an all day rain event but some localities could see thunderstorms more than others, so nothing widespread but more scattered. 

 

Sunday Night (Above): The threat for convection and or severe storms will persist into the overnight period for south central and southeastern Manitoba as the front takes a while to pull through the ridge dominating the USA. There’s a chance for strong to severe storms with possible straight line winds as a threat with hail possibly as well. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens overnight. 

The week ahead: Much calmer weather  but more seasonal temperatures look to be in store with highs in the low to mid 20’s and lows in the low to mid teens once again with the possibility of lows in the high single digits. 

Heat and humidity return with showers and thunderstorms .

 Southern sections of Manitoba are in store for again another round of heat and humidity, it will be brief as a cold front is expected to bring in a northwesterly flow back in to our area on Tuesday. However a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around for the first part of the week, there’s also a lot more heat on the way later this week as a ridge moves in. Find out more where and when to expect thunderstorms and the heat as well in this weeks blog. 

(Above: Today’s warmer than average high temperatures shown on Nexlab’s temperature graphic in Farenheit of course). 

Monday: Today will be the start of a trend of hotter and more humid air that will sit over our region. Today will be hotter and more humid than over the weekend, dew point temperatures here will soar into the mid to high teens, there’s a chance that areas with more crop growth surprisingly could have dewpoints up to 20-22C. A weak cold front will be moving through the inter lakes and southern Manitoba today bringing the risk of thunderstorms some may be severe,  however due to a lack of forcing there will be minimal development of any thunderstorms. If they do form, due to the high amounts of CAPE (Thunderstorm Energy) they may become severe briefly, unfortunately due to the lack of shear they will not be able to organize themselves enough to last for long periods so pulse storms look possible. High temperatures for today will rise into the mid to high 20’s, except for the interlakes and the parklands in southwestern and western Manitoba where highs will only reach the high teens to low 20’s.  

Monday Night (Above): A fairly calm night is expected with fog possible, as clearing occurs and overnight temperatures reaches the dew point temperatures humidity will reach 100% this will bring in a risk for wide spread fog the main concerns are around the American border at Emerson and spotty sections in western Manitoba. Fog should clear out by the morning hours shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens with the cooler lows in the interlake regions. 

Tuesday: During the day another cold front will be sinking south and this will be the culprit for showers and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon especially across southwestern sections of Manitoba, guidance is hinting at an area of showers and thunderstorms forming in western Manitoba and the parklands moving east reaching the red river valley by the time around noon. These storms look to remain non severe, with only a very slight risk of a marginally severe storm. Another batch of storms looks to develop in western Manitoba by late afternoon , the interesting thing about this system is that it will not be feeding off of much storm energy. Only meager 500 to 1,500J/Kg of CAPE is possible with the highest along the American border. This means that if storms form they won’t last long and won’t have that same punch as we had a few weeks ago. There isn’t a high supercell composite level (which measures all the atmospheric conditions present for supercells) here which means the risk for severe thunderstorms is quite low. There may  be a chance for severe storms if the showers and thunderstorms can wait to hold off until the early afternoon but that still is yet to be seen. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in southwestern Manitoba but they will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the eastern part of Manitoba before cooling by late afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms should clear by the evening hours, again depending on how warm it gets there could be a severe thunderstorm or two especially near the American border. Anyways temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid teens with the coldest of the air south of lake Winnipeg and out in western Manitoba.

Wednesday: During the day on Wednesday calmer weather should be around, the only caveat will be a northerly flow in place which will make things a tad cooler than average, temperatures will sit in the low to mid 20’s. 

Wednesday Night: Cooler and quiet conditions persist, with most areas only seeing lows between 10 to 12C, areas further north into the interlakes and the parklands may see lows in the mid teens. 

Second half of the week: Strong signals are in place for a return to milder weather, a northwesterly flow will switch to a westerly to southwesterly flow which will allow for stable calm weather with high pressure in the area, and a return to temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and low temperatures in the low to mid teens. Possible signs of more heat and humidity by the weekend.

SPECIAL FEATURE. Why is it that Storm season is persisting longer than average???!!! Myself I’m actually surprised that storm season is continuing well into late august in previous years storm season quit after the 15-20th, it’s likely because our crop season started late and is continuing well into august I have noticed in recent years the crops would have been done by now. Also we have had a pretty consistent southerly flow in place which adds more humidity to the air. Crops usually allow for more humidity in the air as they hold it in by transpiration. Until crops get harvested and the cold air returns, severe weather may continue into September as it did in 2002,2007,2010,2015,2018,2019 which I remember storms from those years in September. 

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight, unsettled before a calmer second half of the week?

 Our region of Manitoba is likely going to see some unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, this blog will be shorter than other blogs. Find out what to expect below. 

Tonight: Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue, with some severe thunderstorms in the interlake regions. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see a frontal system move in overnight into the morning period, this system will contribute thunderstorms and a very small risk of severe thunderstorms overnight into the morning period. As a trough of low pressure moves through. Models are all over the place on timing and precipitation type, the HRRR is the most conservative with only scattered showers and thunderstorms whereas the RAP (usually the most accurate weather model) has storms in the inter lakes dying down around midnight before storms develop in the southern part of the region of Manitoba. And the NAM which agrees with the RAP has scattered batches of storms moving through southern Manitoba during the overnight. These storms may produce small to moderate hail, and mostly heavy rainfall due to the slow moving nature of these storms. The general consensus is 5 to 25mm of rainfall, possibly more if storms stay over the same area for a long period of time. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, with the cooler air in the west as rainfall happens overnight. 

Thursday: Expect some partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy skies in the morning, as we switch to the backside of the low pressure system another chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon. If we can get enough day time heating some showers and possibly severe thunderstorms could occur, according to John sauder in his daily weather update he mentions from Portage la Prairie east to the Ontario border will have a severe risk. Storms will not be widespread. Temperatures will rise into the high teens and low 20’s, to mid 20’s if the sun can peak out. 

Thursday Night: There may be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms right near the American border, before they move into North Dakota. As the low pressure system the culprit for the stormy weather moves off into Ontario, high pressure will begin to move into the region. There may initially be some cloud cover before clearing overnight except south central Manitoba . Temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens. 

Friday: Another humid and warm day will be on tap for Friday, with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20’s. It’ll be beautiful unfortunately with dew point temperatures rising into the high teens it will be muggy, this could result in isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Clear skies are likely with temperatures likely remaining slightly below average with lows dropping into the mid teens and some places a few degrees above 10C. 

The weekend: Calm sunny weather is likely with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and lows in the mid to high teens, under high pressure.