Heat and humidity return with showers and thunderstorms .

 Southern sections of Manitoba are in store for again another round of heat and humidity, it will be brief as a cold front is expected to bring in a northwesterly flow back in to our area on Tuesday. However a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around for the first part of the week, there’s also a lot more heat on the way later this week as a ridge moves in. Find out more where and when to expect thunderstorms and the heat as well in this weeks blog. 

(Above: Today’s warmer than average high temperatures shown on Nexlab’s temperature graphic in Farenheit of course). 

Monday: Today will be the start of a trend of hotter and more humid air that will sit over our region. Today will be hotter and more humid than over the weekend, dew point temperatures here will soar into the mid to high teens, there’s a chance that areas with more crop growth surprisingly could have dewpoints up to 20-22C. A weak cold front will be moving through the inter lakes and southern Manitoba today bringing the risk of thunderstorms some may be severe,  however due to a lack of forcing there will be minimal development of any thunderstorms. If they do form, due to the high amounts of CAPE (Thunderstorm Energy) they may become severe briefly, unfortunately due to the lack of shear they will not be able to organize themselves enough to last for long periods so pulse storms look possible. High temperatures for today will rise into the mid to high 20’s, except for the interlakes and the parklands in southwestern and western Manitoba where highs will only reach the high teens to low 20’s.  

Monday Night (Above): A fairly calm night is expected with fog possible, as clearing occurs and overnight temperatures reaches the dew point temperatures humidity will reach 100% this will bring in a risk for wide spread fog the main concerns are around the American border at Emerson and spotty sections in western Manitoba. Fog should clear out by the morning hours shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens with the cooler lows in the interlake regions. 

Tuesday: During the day another cold front will be sinking south and this will be the culprit for showers and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon especially across southwestern sections of Manitoba, guidance is hinting at an area of showers and thunderstorms forming in western Manitoba and the parklands moving east reaching the red river valley by the time around noon. These storms look to remain non severe, with only a very slight risk of a marginally severe storm. Another batch of storms looks to develop in western Manitoba by late afternoon , the interesting thing about this system is that it will not be feeding off of much storm energy. Only meager 500 to 1,500J/Kg of CAPE is possible with the highest along the American border. This means that if storms form they won’t last long and won’t have that same punch as we had a few weeks ago. There isn’t a high supercell composite level (which measures all the atmospheric conditions present for supercells) here which means the risk for severe thunderstorms is quite low. There may  be a chance for severe storms if the showers and thunderstorms can wait to hold off until the early afternoon but that still is yet to be seen. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in southwestern Manitoba but they will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the eastern part of Manitoba before cooling by late afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms should clear by the evening hours, again depending on how warm it gets there could be a severe thunderstorm or two especially near the American border. Anyways temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid teens with the coldest of the air south of lake Winnipeg and out in western Manitoba.

Wednesday: During the day on Wednesday calmer weather should be around, the only caveat will be a northerly flow in place which will make things a tad cooler than average, temperatures will sit in the low to mid 20’s. 

Wednesday Night: Cooler and quiet conditions persist, with most areas only seeing lows between 10 to 12C, areas further north into the interlakes and the parklands may see lows in the mid teens. 

Second half of the week: Strong signals are in place for a return to milder weather, a northwesterly flow will switch to a westerly to southwesterly flow which will allow for stable calm weather with high pressure in the area, and a return to temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and low temperatures in the low to mid teens. Possible signs of more heat and humidity by the weekend.

SPECIAL FEATURE. Why is it that Storm season is persisting longer than average???!!! Myself I’m actually surprised that storm season is continuing well into late august in previous years storm season quit after the 15-20th, it’s likely because our crop season started late and is continuing well into august I have noticed in recent years the crops would have been done by now. Also we have had a pretty consistent southerly flow in place which adds more humidity to the air. Crops usually allow for more humidity in the air as they hold it in by transpiration. Until crops get harvested and the cold air returns, severe weather may continue into September as it did in 2002,2007,2010,2015,2018,2019 which I remember storms from those years in September.