Heat and Humidity Return, Say Hello to Thunderstorms and a Severe Weather Risk

 Hello folks, I’m back and I hope your all enjoying your summer holidays. The heat is returning along with the humidity, a ridge has established itself over the Central American plains which is where temperatures have soared well into the mid to high 30C range and some places there have been in the low 40’s. In our region, we’re expecting to experience some of the heat felt south of the border however multiple impulses of low pressure are likely to move through this airmass on the north end of the ridge. Find out what that Leah’s for us below. 

(Above: Temperatures for the day on Saturday, sunny and mild, above average highs expected. Enjoy!)

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and calm weather conditions are expected however, with a stagnant flow in place there will be a chance at fog patches in southern Manitoba with the heaviest of the fog expected in southwestern Manitoba and in the pembina valley. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens tonight with the warmer air likely in the red river valley area.

Thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon especially in the inter lakes regions. (Above). 

Saturday: The weather for Saturday gets slightly interesting, a cold front will be draped west to east over the central part of Manitoba basically the inter lakes parklands, eastern Manitoba and over the middle of the lakes. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s with temperatures in the central inter lakes and far northern parklands seeing highs in the low 20’s. Dewpoint temperatures will soar into the high teens to low 20’s so it will be humid. There’s some indications that during the early part of the afternoon that some thunderstorms will form along this boundary tapping into CAPE or thunderstorm energy of about 1,000 to 2,000Joules/Kg. There’s a risk of severe thunderstorms mainly in the inter lakes and parklands region, less so further south although isolated in nature, they could form anywhere along that boundary best chances are where the higher dewpoints are and south of the cold front situated in the lakes region. Risks would be large hail, possibly up to marble or bigger, damaging wind gusts and torrential rains. Tornadoes are less likely but still possible given the lower helicity values in play which measure shear in upper levels. If you don’t get storms expect mainly a hot and humid sunny afternoon. 

One of the possibility’s for showers or thunderstorms on Saturday night. This model is a convective precipitation map from the NAM 

Saturday Night: During the evening and overnight  the cold front should pass through southern Manitoba, with a chance of thunderstorms some of which may be severe but the risk is lower due to daytime heating loss and cooler weather after sunset. Best risk is in the southwestern part of Manitoba regions into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens and low 20’s.

Sunday: Looks to be the nicer days of the weekend with morning showers or thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, partly cloudy skies are expected mostly into the afternoon hours. There’s a chance for some sun to come out during the day time, dew point temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens. There’s also a chance for some isolated severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening in the red river valley as a warm front is located over the inter lakes. Temperatures will rise into the mid 20’s in the inter lakes and parklands and high 20’s in the southern section of Manitoba. 

Sunday Night: Calm weather expected with partly cloudy skies are expected, temperatures in the mid to high teens for most. The exception being the parklands where lows will drop into the low teens. 

The Week Abead: A more unsettled week is possible as a few more low pressure systems tap into what looks to be possibly an active week. Models are still diverging on what could turn out, however the Canadian model at the moment is showing a lot of potential for thunderstorms and or severe weather during the week.Temperatures remaining in the mid to high 20’s and low 30’s with mid to high teens for lows.