Showers and thunderstorms to kick off the end of the week.

 Southern sections of Manitoba have had a break from severe weather for the last day as well another beautiful day can be expected, unfortunately another low pressure system is likely to move into southern sections of Manitoba tonight into tomorrow morning before a calmer weekend comes around. Find out when and where and when the most significant weather is expected and what you can expect for the weekend. 

Thursday: Expect a sunny warm and mild day as it is already ahead of the low pressure system, I honestly am very happy to have calm weather for once. It’s a completely different story in southern Saskatchewan, a severe weather threat will exist there today with the potential for supercells with tornadoes possibly. Ahead of it a warm and humid airmass will be in place over southern Manitoba with our daytime temperatures rising into the mid to high twenties in south central and southeastern Manitoba. Are we in the southwest could see highs in the low 30’s. 

Thursday Night: An approaching cold front will likely end up moving into southern sections of Manitoba tonight, there’s a possibility that a line of thunderstorms may develop from north to south impacting western portions of Manitoba and southwestern regions after midnight into the overnight. The pembina valley late overnight into early morning south of lake Manitoba with the red river valley seeing thunderstorms by morning. These thunderstorms will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds, with bowing segments possible best risk areas are in western Manitoba into the Winnipeg region and red river valley, I think the above severe weather threat area isn’t far enough east. Tornadoes may be a possibility (but chances are less than 5%) in this line as spin ups could occur with the shear in the region. Models are still differing on the strength of these storms, however enough CAPE in the 2,000 to 2,500J/Kg exists which should give storms the energy to last into the night. Temperatures overnight will not drop much unless you get over a thunderstorm which could drop your lows lower than forecast overnight lows which are expected to be in the high teens and low 20’s. 

(Above:Thunderstorms possible on Friday morning in much of the red river valley, some may be severe.)

Friday: Thunderstorms may persist in the morning and early afternoon hours especially over the red river valley into eastern Manitoba, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the southeast during the morning. Areas further west could be under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some of those thunderstorms in the east with daytime heating could have some potency to them as the NAM is suggesting a large area of convection over the red river valley. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s across the southern half of Manitoba. 

Friday Night: Calmer weather is likely as another cold front builds south, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens on the night especially in the Manitoba lakes regions. 

Saturday: Cloudy skies are likely as a low pressure system sits off to the south, temperatures will rise into the high teens to low 20’s. A majority of the heat will be stateside. Pleasant weather is expected with only a 20-30% chance of showers near the American border. 

Saturday Night: Thanks to a northerly flow in place temperatures will drop below normal values with a majority of the region seeing a chance at showers and mostly cloudy skies during the early evening before clearing overnight. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits in the interlakes and some areas in the western half of Manitoba dropping to around 8-9C. Elsewhere lows in the low to mid teens are likely. 

Sunday: Looks like another day to watch for unsettled weather right now, a low pressure system looks to impact the region with a chance for showers in the region. Could this turn into a thunderstorm threat ?? This is something I will keep an eye on as the day gets closer. Temperatures will rise into the high teens to the low 20’s, with the potential for warmer temperatures if we can manage to get in the warm sector of the low. 

I’m gonna be taking a break from blogging until Monday, I’ll update any changes in the model data for these upcoming systems in the comment section of this post. -Mike McGregor