Severe Thunderstorm Threat returns calmer weather to follow

 Hello everyone, hope your all doing well. A significant severe weather threat will be arriving tomorrow afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves into southern sections of Manitoba. This will mark the return to some heat and humidity that we will have to deal with also. Read on to find out more what this means for our weather and overall thunderstorm threat. This will not be scientific as I have done in the past as well. 

(Above: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tomorrow afternoon and evening). 

Tuesday: A low pressure system will approach the region ahead of it a warm front will move, into our area allowing for our dew point temperatures to rise into the low 20’s to mid 20’s. Yes it’ll be that humid. Ahead of this temperatures will also rise into the mid to high 20’s with areas along the American border reaching the low 30’s. Ahead of the front significant CAPE will form with upwards of 4,500J/Kg and shear from 300 to 500m2s-2 which supports supercells with the potential for moderate strength to strong Tornadoes. A low pressure system will sit over our area at 6-8pm with a cold front sitting over our area which will be the trigger for these severe thunderstorms. 

(Above: Severe Weather risk for much of southern Manitoba, with supercell thunderstorms possible especially in the Red River Valley). (Below: SKEWT Graph for near the Winnipeg area, with a significant risk of severe weather as seen in the bottom right corner). At the moment the consensus is that an area of severe thunderstorms will develop over south central Manitoba or the parklands part of Manitoba with the potential for explosive thunderstorm development . Once these thunderstorms encounter the soupy unstable airmass they will likely produce hail up to the size of golfballs to baseballs or larger as seen in Alberta. There will also be a risk of damaging winds in excess of 120km/h, flooding rains over 40mm an hour, and tornadoes. Thunderstorms are likely to develop during the late afternoon and early evening and may persist until after dark. We will track these thunderstorms for you tomorrow afternoon and evening as they develop. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms will likely clear out of the region by 10-11pm, clear skies are likely overnight as the low moves into Ontario. Temperatures are likely to drop into the low to mid teens on Tuesday night. 

Wednesday: High pressure builds back into the region with calmer weather conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 20’s for daytime high temperatures and low to mid teens for overnight lows. 

Second half of the week: The warmest weather of the week arrives Thursday into Saturday with high temperatures hitting the high 20’s to low 30’s, overnight lows may drop only into the low to mid 20’s or high teens. Severe weather also returns as a possibility on Friday and Saturday.