More unstable Weather with showers and thunderstorms

 Once again southern Manitoba will be experiencing some unstable weather conditions, a stationary low pressure system will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba providing multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Although a hot and humid airmass will likely fuel this threat over the coming days. Find out the timing and severity of the storms and when we can expect the pattern to calm. Photo below was taken at 7:08PM. 

Tonight: A stationary low pressure system sitting over southern Manitoba. A warm and unstable airmass will sit over southern sections of Manitoba, a large area of instability will be present over the region with. This will be the catalyst for a severe weather threat this evening. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s across the south today, with dew point temperatures rising into the high teens to low 20’s across the south. Setting up enough moisture for storms later. Looking over the model data Most Unstable Convective Avaliable potential energy appears to be across the south, mainly south of the Manitoba Lakes. As well supercell composites in this area are around 1-4. What all of this means is that there will be thunderstorms this evening with a risk for severe thunderstorms. Areas of concern is the front located over western Manitoba which may create more of an environment for thunderstorms to form in a line, then as noted frequently by the HRRR is a MCV or mesoscale convective vortex which often develops and detaches from the storm system it formed off of. HRRR model wasn’t showing storms forming with this until later in the evening, some storms just developed in south central Manitoba by MacGregor and Austin. I’m expecting that more of the same may happen. There’s also a chance that storms if they form in the southwest they may also move east with the same system, they however may die out by the time they make it to southeast and south central Manitoba but a general risk of thunderstorms are expected overnight especially in south central Manitoba and towards the American border. Thunderstorms should end late overnight. Overnight clearing is possible if storms don’t last into the overnight. Models are dissagreeing still. 

Tuesday: Another possible unstable day weather wise is possible as the same frontal system moves sits over southern sections of Manitoba, however a small high pressure system may inhibit storms from developing. Regardless model data is agreeing on one thing that there will be a risk for scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon some of which may be severe. Not everyone will get a storm.  Dewpoint temperatures will once again rise into the mid to high teens with temperatures rising into the mid to high 20’s 

Tuesday Night: Calmer weather is likely on Tuesday night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Second half of the week: More unstable weather is on tap for the region, temperatures will begin to heat up again on Wednesday with temperatures in the high 20’s  with more heat and humidity coming into the region. More thunderstorms are also likely during the second half of the week.