Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight, unsettled before a calmer second half of the week?

 Our region of Manitoba is likely going to see some unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, this blog will be shorter than other blogs. Find out what to expect below. 

Tonight: Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue, with some severe thunderstorms in the interlake regions. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see a frontal system move in overnight into the morning period, this system will contribute thunderstorms and a very small risk of severe thunderstorms overnight into the morning period. As a trough of low pressure moves through. Models are all over the place on timing and precipitation type, the HRRR is the most conservative with only scattered showers and thunderstorms whereas the RAP (usually the most accurate weather model) has storms in the inter lakes dying down around midnight before storms develop in the southern part of the region of Manitoba. And the NAM which agrees with the RAP has scattered batches of storms moving through southern Manitoba during the overnight. These storms may produce small to moderate hail, and mostly heavy rainfall due to the slow moving nature of these storms. The general consensus is 5 to 25mm of rainfall, possibly more if storms stay over the same area for a long period of time. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, with the cooler air in the west as rainfall happens overnight. 

Thursday: Expect some partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy skies in the morning, as we switch to the backside of the low pressure system another chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon. If we can get enough day time heating some showers and possibly severe thunderstorms could occur, according to John sauder in his daily weather update he mentions from Portage la Prairie east to the Ontario border will have a severe risk. Storms will not be widespread. Temperatures will rise into the high teens and low 20’s, to mid 20’s if the sun can peak out. 

Thursday Night: There may be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms right near the American border, before they move into North Dakota. As the low pressure system the culprit for the stormy weather moves off into Ontario, high pressure will begin to move into the region. There may initially be some cloud cover before clearing overnight except south central Manitoba . Temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens. 

Friday: Another humid and warm day will be on tap for Friday, with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20’s. It’ll be beautiful unfortunately with dew point temperatures rising into the high teens it will be muggy, this could result in isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Clear skies are likely with temperatures likely remaining slightly below average with lows dropping into the mid teens and some places a few degrees above 10C. 

The weekend: Calm sunny weather is likely with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and lows in the mid to high teens, under high pressure.