Warm Weather Continues, possible pattern change on the way.

I’m back from a little bit of a break from blogging, much of the region of southern Manitoba has been experiencing a calm and a beautiful weather pattern. This pattern looks to continue, and even though we are in a dry spell there’s no sign of drought for the region which is good news. Read on to find out how long this pattern will last for and how warm it will get later this week. 

Wednesday: Will end up being a gorgeous day weather wise with not a lot in the way of cloud cover expected, a ridge of high pressure will be sitting over our region with temperatures rising into the low to mid 20’s. Our region will continue to be on the northern end of a ridge over the United States. 

Wednesday Night: A calm weather pattern will exist, however a chance that a northwesterly flow aloft will keep our temperatures from being cooler than what were used to, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens with patchy fog expected as cooler air filters over the warmer ground. No precipitation is expected overnight. 

Thursday: Expect a similar day with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies,, there may be a chance for some showers in southwestern Manitoba with some non severe thunderstorms possible. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s with the warmest air especially in the Red River Valley as a southerly flow establishes itself. 

Thursday Night: A large area of southwestern Manitoba will see showers and possible thunderstorms with the potential for up to 5-10mm of rainfall. Mostly cloudy skies are likely early to mid evening, before clearing occurs towards early overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens over the region. 

Friday: Will end up being another calm day weather wise, an approaching cold front from northern Manitoba will begin to sink south with it there’s a chance of some instability that could build into the region with a chance for showers and thunderstorms especially along the cold front in the interlakes and parklands. The NAM is the only model right now not hinting at instability moving into the region, this could be due to the presence of the ridge to the south of us. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies in the morning hours with gradual clearing in the afternoon with a mix of sun and cloud likely later in the day. Dew point temperatures have a chance at rising into the upper teens to lower twenties, so it’ll feel humid outside with temperatures rising into the mid to high 20’s with the warmest of the weather happening in southwestern Manitoba. Humidex will feel closer to the low to mid 30’s, a few areas could see humidex closer to 36C. 

Friday Night: A continued chance for showers and thunderstorms is likely, as a weak cold front rides the upper ridge. Best chance of these thunderstorms are in western Manitoba into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. There’s some signs that if any form they may happen in the early evening period. There isn’t really any strong signals for severe weather, some severe thunderstorms are possible but nothing widespread is expected. Clearing is expected after they move out. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the mid to high teens, milder than the weather we received on Wednesday Night. 

The weekend: This is when the forecast gets complicated even 3 days out, there are signs that a low pressure system could sit over our area on Saturday bringing in a increased risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe. The second half of the weekend may bring the same but with models disagreeing and poor signals on a potential stationary front moving into our area it’s hard to determine time and impacts. This may contribute to a active week after the weekend. Temperatures on the weekend will rise into the mid to high 20’s on Saturday with overnight lows in the high teens and on Sunday highs will reach the mid to high 20’s with some areas in southern Manitoba reaching the low 30’s. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens as well. The heat looks to return next week with more heat and humidity likely.