Warm Weather Arriving for the rest of the weekend!! Enjoy :)

Welcome to another update on Manitoba's weather situation, my name is Michael Mcgregor and I work alongside Justin and the weather centre of Manitoba Team as usual. I have your weather update which will cover the rest of the weekend into the beginning part of the week which will cover the days into Wednesday. The overall weather set up this week appears to transition into a ridge over the Canadian Prairie provinces which will allow for a westerly to southerly flow to develop which will increase our overall temperature pattern resulting in Above normal temperatures for the region into the week. The jet stream however appears to be split over the North American continent which will result in majority of the storm systems traveling along the southern branch of the split flow with drier conditions on the north side of the flow. Find out what this means for our overall temperature pattern in this week's blog below. 

I have decided that when writing weather blogs I'll be using model ensembles which is a blend of regional weather models which should give the average for daytime high temperatures if you guys are upset about the forecast outcomes that I have please let me know. outhern sections of the province will likely be under the influence of a trough of low pressure however that does not look to impact our overall weather as it sits over the region. Interestingly this feature will set stationary over the region over the next couple of days which will allow for southwestern parts of Manitoba to be on the backside of this. 

Tonight: Tonight should be a fairly calm night with some cloud and possible fog patches, overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus single digits overnight around -10C. There may be some windchill values in the low minus teens. Typical late January weather. 

Sunday: Much of the region on the day Sunday will begin experiencing the warmth that was forecast earlier this week, unfortunately it is going to result in some local snow melting. This may be our typical Manitoba False Spring. Looking at the latest temperature data, high temperatures will rise into the low plus single digits. There will be sections of the Manitoba lakes where the high temperature values will only rise into the low minus single digits, as the lakes remain frozen. Areas south of the lakes as well will be cooler with highs of -1 to -3C forecast. I am looking at general daytime high temperatures in the 4C to -3C range. Cooler south of the lakes. 

Sunday Night (See above photo for freezing rain threat): What we will have to watch for is a system on the north side of northern Manitoba moving southwards on the north side of the ridge that we will have over our area. What is concerning is that a large area of freezing rain may move through south central and southeastern parts of Manitoba, there will be a possibility of 1-3 hours of this during the overnight hours. I have attached a photo the forecast amounts in inches. Using College of DuPage weather. We will monitor for more information on this potential as the risk draws closer. Overnight low temperatures will sit in the low minus single digits in southeastern Manitoba, -1 to -4C. Areas in the southwest will see temperatures rise into the low plus single digits with advancing warm air from the west, lows of -1 to -3C can be expected by early evening before temperatures rise to 1 to 3C by morning.

The Week Ahead: The week ahead will feature some of the warmest weather we have experienced in weeks, if not since 2023. I have no stats on the weather, however based on previous years this year is eeriley similar to the year 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 with the El Nino those years in the winter months. All those years had unusually warm days in January and February. Regardless I see forecast high temperatures this week, in the low to mid plus single digits (1 to 5C). Overnight lows will be a degree or 2 below zero, if you are lucky in the south some areas in more urban locations may stay above freezing. This trend will continue into the later half of the week. See the video below for some ideas on the persistent warmth. 

Warmer weather, on the horizon. Snow and blowing snow possible on Sunday night.

Good afternoon Manitoba! The cold weather will likely come to an end, over the coming days. I have been looking over recent model data and the latest information will come as good news for you all on here. I am usually expecting colder than average weather this time of year to say the least, that however is looking to change this week as El Nino begins to take over the weather pattern again as the Arctic oscillation has returned to the positive phase. However to start this weekend calm weather in store, the weather may get a bit more unsettled as a brief clipper system is set to travail over the region towards the end of the weekend. Find out what that means for us, and what that will mean for our temperature pattern this weekend into early next week. 

Above: (El Nino Like warmth is back for the week ahead folks, this pattern will persist into the remainder of the month). 

Saturday: Expect mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies, with an increasing area of cloudcover this afternoon and evening in the western half of Manitoba into the red river valley areas this evening. I am not expecting anything in the way of precipitation for a large area of the region, the only concern for flurries I have is the western half of Manitoba into the interlakes from Swan River the Hills of west central Manitoba into the Pegius and Fisher River areas. Today winds will begin picking up out of the south as we sit on the far west end of high pressure (backside of the system). So there may be some periods of blustery winds. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid teens in areas of western Manitoba, the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba including the interlakes will see a contrast with highs in the mid minus teens, and high minus teens as you get closer to the Minnesota and Ontario border. Windchill values in the low  minus twenties in the west, with mid minus twenties in the south central part of Manitoba. 

Saturday Night: Generally calm and mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely overnight, winds will continue to ride out of the south to southwest, with general wind speeds 20 to 30km/h with gusts up to 60km/h at times. Overnight low temperatures will rise with average temperatures warming into the low minus teens, to mid minus teens. Areas of the southwest will see windchill values in the mid minus teens to high minus teens. However if you live anywhere east of portage la Prairie and east of Melita overnight windchill values will more than likely be in the low minus twenties. 

Sunday: The warmth finally arrives, and this is going to be one of those days a lot of people will look forwards to, it will be a brief taste of what the week will be like. Unfortunately it is going to be one of those days that brings in a batch of unsettled weather. There will be a chance for flurries over the southern half of Manitoba during the day, that isnt coming up on environment Canadas website. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the low minus teens, and high minus single digits in the southwest and south central part of Manitoba especially if you are south of highway 1. North of that, temperatures will be in the low minus teens. 

(Above) Snowfall accumulations highlighted with the heaviest amounts within the circled area. An inch is only about 2 to 4cm of fresh snow. I detailed the information on the areas affected below. 

Sunday Night: Another round of snow and a risk of freezing rain appears, (albeit breifly for the freezing rain threat over the red river valley and extreme southeast border of MB) on Sunday evening in the red river valley and pembina valley west of Winnipeg, before another round of brief but light to moderate flurries or snow fill in. Heaviest amounts appear to be along highway 1, west to east along a line from Virden to Beausejour with some sections out of that region having a chance for flurries. General accumulations of 5cm are likely, just west of Virden to a trace to 2cm elsewhere. The good news is that we will be escaping another heavy snowfall, this is just a weak clipper system. :-) Overnight low temperatures will fortunately stay in the area they were on Sunday, with low temperature values in the low to mid minus teens. Windchill values may be a bit lower though, not a significant difference however. Winds will blow out of the south though with gusts up to 30 to 40km/h. 

The Week Ahead: As shown in the photo at the top, significant change in temperature values are likely with Manitoba seeing our daily overnight lows and daytime high temperatures rising 7-10C above average in the coming week which means highs in the low minus single digits to the mid minus single digits and overnight lows in the high minus single digits or around -10C. This warmth looks to stick right into the month of March based on tropical tidbits CFSV2 model run. I am pleasently surprised and quite happy about this, there will be a chance for snow on the day Monday before calmer weather arrives for the latter part of the first half of the week. The second half of the week will bring another chance for flurries, however no significant storm systems appear to be in the cards. 

As I usually say with this kind of weather, Il'l take it! Winter is a hard enough season with the lack of sunlight.:-) Makes me Happy. 

-Mike McGregor

Extreme Cold Continuing to Impact southern manitoba

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing extreme cold over the next few days, current model data is showing a polar vortex sitting over the southern Canadian prairie provinces. 

Temperatures across much of the region going into Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday will be in the high minus teens to low minus 20's for daytime high temperatures with windchill values exceeding the minus 30C to minus 40C mark. Overnight lows will more than likely sit in the minus 30 degree celcius to minus 35C range.  If your wondering why this post will be so short??? I have limited time to share detailed data. However from what I know, the cold we will be experiencing is not a result of the El Nino but a weakened jet stream over the arctic. Here is a snapshot of the extreme cold in a weather model as forecast. I will have a more significant update on the weather pattern on Monday. Word of caution, is that on Sunday morning and Monday morning there is a risk for temperatures to surpass -50C with the windchill in some locations. 

The full alert info from Environment Canada is below: A multi-day episode of very cold wind chills is expected.

Wind chills: -40 to -55. Time span: Friday morning to early next week. Remarks: An arctic air mass continues to bring dangerously cold temperatures to the region. The extreme cold, combined with winds of 15 to 30 km/h, will result in wind chill values ranging from -40 to -55 at times over the coming days. Extreme cold puts everyone at risk. Cover up. Frostbite can develop within minutes on exposed skin, especially with wind chill. If it’s too cold for you to stay outside, it’s too cold for your pet to stay outside. Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and hypothermia. For more information on cold and your health, visit Manitoba Health at gov.mb.ca/health/publichealth/environmentalhealth/cold.html or call Health Links - Info Santé at 204-788-8200 or toll-free at 1-888-315-9257. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to MBstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #MBStorm.

Stay warm and stay safe! -Mike 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Snow and Colder weather arriving this weekend.

Happy new years everyone, I am so happy to be back with being able to do weather updates. I hope you had a amazing winter holidays. I am also continuing to work with Justin Oretel on Manitoba weather centre. I am one of the team members along with Justin. Anyways some interesting weather is ahead for southern sections of the province as a low pressure system moves in and ushers in a unseasonably cold airmass in behind it. Much of the region already has experienced one of the warmest and driest ever Decembers on record with very little in the way of cold snaps. That pattern looks likely to change as the AO or arctic oscillation switches to negative resulting in a much weaker jetsttream over the northern half of the country. Find out what that means for us below. 

Tonight (above): Snow and flurries will persist over much of southern Manitoba tonight as a low pressure system moves over areas just south of the border, a clipper system tonight will more than likely bring upwards of 5-10cm of snow tonight over areas of the southern half of Manitoba. Interlakes regions will see about 5 to 14cm of snow as a possibility. Areas in eastern Manitoba will likely drop into the high minus single digits. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will also see temperatures in the low to mid minus teens. 

Saturday: Snow should begin to clear the region by the afternoon hours with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies resulting behind the system. Temperatures over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba will more than likely see high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits. Areas in extreme southwestern Manitoba will see high temperatures above minus 10 degrees Celsius, areas north of highway number two into the interlakes and central parts in Manitoba will see daytime high values below minus 10 degrees Celsius from -10 to -15C Celsius . Saturday night: A much colder airmass will take over with overnight low values in the mid minus teens and some areas if there is enough of a northwest wind may see lows around -20C. 

The reason for this cold blast can be attributed to a weaker jet stream around the poles resulting in cold air filtering south until now that cold has been locked up in Siberia and Russia, this negative Arctic oscilation may be reverting back to positive by the end of January which may help bring the warmth back in , EL nino is still running strong in the pacific. 

Sunday: Warm weather will return on the day Sunday ahead of another area of low pressure that will impact southern Manitoba. Temperatures on the day Sunday will rise into the upper single digits around minus 6 to minus 10 degrees celsius areas north of highway one and the lakes may see high temperature values and the low minus teens. A large swath of snow will move into Western Manitoba and the Interlakes on Sunday afternoon bringing heavy bands of snow at times with a possibility of total accumulations from this weekend rising from nine centimeters to as much as 16 to 20 centimeters in the parklands of western Manitoba into the Interlakes down South into Lake Winnipeg north basin. Snow will also cover areas of the Red River valley and parts of Western, Southwestern Manitoba into southeast Manitoba with only about a trace to two centimeters in those regions Areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may escape snowfall on Sunday and Sunday evening.. Sunday overnight the cold behind the low pressure system will begin to move across the Prairie provinces including Winnipeg with overnight low values exceeding minus 10 degrees Celsius being below normal for the first time in several weeks, low temperature values will likely drop into the mid to high minus teens with windchill values in the minus twenties .

For those wondering is snowfall total information about snowfall in their region I have attached a snowfall total graphic above with information about how much and where majority of the snow will fall, if you guys have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments section on the weather center of Manitoba. To recap it looks like the main swath of the heavy snowfall will remain north of highway 67 and the Trans Canada Highway over Central Lake Manitoba and Central Lake Winnipeg there is a possibility that this heavy snowfall axis may shift based on where the cold air establishes itself. Usually with snow fall you need extremely cold air and moisture being able to funnel into the system usually in the north side of lows.

The week ahead: The same cold weather persists with periods of more normal temperatures during the day Wednesday. High temperatures in the low to mid teens is more than likely with overnight lows in the upper minus teens and low minus 20's. 

Warm Christmas and Fog with snow and freezing rain possible. Happy Early Merry Christmas!!!!!

 Much of southern Manitoba has been in a persistent period of warmer than average weather, the last 3 days much of our region has been enveloped in fog, and freezing drizzle. There also has been persistent southerly flow which has increased the development of low level moisture over the cold snowpack. 

Freezing Rain and snow expected during the morning hours, the highest risk is likely in areas of southeastern Manitoba for freezing rain. Snow is possible elsewhere. All the details below.

Tonight: there will be a batch of freezing rain and drizzle over southern sections of Manitoba, areas from the Pembina valley east into the red river valley. Temperatures overnight will be in the low minus single digits in the southwest and right around freezing in the southeast part of Manitoba. There will be a sharp temperature contrast by morning.

Sunday: A batch of Precipitation will move into southern Manitoba as part of a developing storm system In Nebraska, a area of freezing rain will move into areas just southeast of Winnipeg, if not the city itself. A risk of freezing rain will occur for areas of the red river valley during the morning before snow moves into the rest of the region by late morning, early afternoon. A general 3-5cm can be expected across the region by the evening hours. Areas east of Brandon and Carberry to winnipeg have the highest chances for picking up more than 2cm. High temperatures will drop below zero into the low minus single digits for the day on Sunday. 

Sunday Night: A clearer and calmer airmass will move into our region, temperatures will likely drop into the low minus teens in the southwest and areas of the southeast will see lows in high minus single digits around minus 3 to minus 7C. Windchills will drop into the minus teens.

The Week Ahead: A strong storm system will likely impact the northern plains as far south as Nebraska and into southern North Dakota. There will be a need to watch this system as it develops, but most models hint at it moving into the Superior region by Tuesday. If this system misses us, a majority of the weather here will remain calm temperatures in southwest Manitoba will be on the cooler side during the week with highs in the mid minus single digits and  lows in the minus mid teens,  areas in the southeast will see highs in the mid to high minus single digits, around zero and overnight lows in the mid to high minus single digits.

Another Winter Storm Set to Impact Southern Manitoba, Winter arriving late 😆😆😆

 Southern Manitoba has another winter storm expected to hit the region over the next 24 to 48 hours, temperatures ahead of it happened very mild with majority of the region already seeing high temperature values in the upper single digits and some locations around 10 degrees Celsius again this Thursday afternoon. Rain has already started to impact parts of Western Manitoba with the warm front trailing ahead of the main low pressure centre at 992MB. Latest model guidance has backed off on heavy snowfall amounts in some parts of southern Manitoba with a majority of heavy snow setting up in the Northern Interlakes to central and Northern Parklands regions into parts of southwestern Manitoba. Find out where when and what you can expect for the worst of the weather. 

(Above total snowfall amounts forecast for southern Manitoba , and full view into the north.) Snowstorm is expected for the region heading into the night Thursday and the day on Friday. 

(Thursday Night:) Heavy swath of snow will be setting up on the northwest side of the low pressure system, this will allow snowfall accumulations to grow. The area I circled is where the heaviest of it will fall, so please be careful if you are driving in these areas.)

Thursday and Thursday night: As I write this at 2:40 PM a widespread area of rain is sitting over northern lakes and the central part of Manitoba on the very fringe of the radar as far as S West as the dolphin and riding Mountain National Park regions. Temperatures this afternoon will likely continue rising with areas of the South still experiencing highs more typical of late October early November, highs between 5 degrees Celsius and 10 degrees celsius are still expected this afternoon. Early this evening rain will transition over to snow, for the interlakes in the Grahamdale, and Ashern and Swan River regions, there is a risk of freezing rain for southwestern parts of Manitoba including the Brandon and Portage La Prairie area depending on where it sets up the parklands could also be at risk for that over lake Manitoba. Rain will also occur in some of those sections before midnight. Latest model guidance is suggesting with the HRRR model run that any precipitation that falls after midnight will transition over to snow for areas points west from Carberry and Ashern and Grahamdale regions. A general snowfall outlook for the Southwest: one to five centimeters from Brandon, Neepawa into Alonsa, areas from Swan River, Dauphin the parklands N to the Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipegosis rgions amounts of 10 to 20 centimeters is likely in a localized narrow swath with the SE remaining dry during the overnight. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop for the southcentral and southeast parts from zero to minus 2 degrees celcius. For a section of the Interlake into South Central and East central parts of province we'll see overnight lows from zero to about one degrees Celsius Areas of Western Manitoba into the parklands north to Swan River will see overnight lows from zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius. Into Friday morning There will be a risk of freezing rain just west of Winnipeg to the Portage La Prairie Regions during the overnight. Before tapering off by the morning.

Snowfall is expected for much of the region on Friday evening with tight isobars strong winds are likely on the backside of the low pressure system. Wind Gusts up to 60km/h. 

Friday and Friday Night: During Friday afternoon we begin to move on the east side of the low pressure system which will draw back cooler air from the Arctic with precipitation switching over from rain to snow for South Central and southeast port so the province areas of the southwest that did not pick up much snow also pick up snow journal announce of 10 to 14 centimeters of snow as possible there is also a chance that areas of extreme SW Manitoba may receive amounts closer to 18 or 19 centimeters. Most models are still diverging on a solution for snowfall totals so this may change according to Justin from Manitoba Weather centre a general five to 10 centimeters of snow could fall in Red River valley and points west . When all is said and done the heaviest of the snow will set up to be over the parklands and West Central Manitoba area is around Swan River up to Lake Winnipegosis into southeastern Saskatchewan with fifteen to twenty five centimeters of snow possible there. I have attached a photo of snowfall forecast totals so the storm will occur on Thursday night in the southwest and on Friday and Friday afternoon and evening in the southeast, The NAM model suggests a narrow but heavy swath of snow moving through traveling SE on Friday evening into the late evening hours before entering Ontario by around midnight. Temperatures on Friday afternoon majority of the region will see the values in the low minus single digits with areas the South Central and the Interlakes especially Overlake Winnipeg from plus one to zero degrees Celsius with Winnipeg on the fringe of the above zero temperatures although they could also experience temperatures above zero on Friday afternoon. One thing to mention behind the cold front is strong northwest to north wind develops with wind gusts possibly exceeding 60 kilometers an hour, the main concern is the shoreline on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg with building ice a ice advisory has been issued along the lakes for concerns of ice moving on properties:Manitoba warns of high winds and potential ice buildup on major lakes - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca  I do not know if there is significant amount of ice on lakes quite yet but that is something to keep in mind as the winds move out to the north. Windchill values overnight will likely be in the minus teens for majority of the region especially as you go further West and north to areas that have heavy snow cover. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper minus single digits some areas may escape that and only approach the mid to upper minus single digits especially the southwest.

During the day on Saturday temperatures will be a lot colder compared to Friday and Thursday daytime high values with a majority of the region seeing temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits with a slight wind chill of low minus teens for areas with very little snow cover areas with more significant snow cover may see windchill values closer to the mid minus teens. Saturday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits and windchill values again in the minus teens and possibility of low minus 20’s. The rest of the weekend looks calm and seasonal with highs on Sunday in the mid To high minus single digits. (-4 to -8C). Overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will remain mild with majority of that region seeing overnight low values in the mid minus single digits with windchill values in the minus teens.

Another Winter heatwave expected to impact southern Manitoba

 Hello folks it’s Mike McGregor again , we are more than likely going to experience another round of warmer than average weather is expected to impact southern Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather and when and where the warmest of the weather will be . Also find out how this weather will come to an end. I’m not going to look forwards to it , hint we might be getting another bout of winter weather.  

Above temperatures look to soar on Wednesday afternoon with some areas of the south of getting to the 10°C mark or above 10°C, which is absolutely unheard of for December

Let’s get through the details for Tuesday: High temperature is on Tuesday on Tuesday will rise into the mid to low minus single digits with a majority of the region seeing cloudy to partly cloudy skies. There will be persistent fog in the early morning hours into the early afternoon hours, as seen on Sunday night. There is a higher chance of seeing some sun in the late afternoon hours, particularly for the red river Valley and eastern Manitoba.

Tuesday night: More than likely a warm front will be approaching a region, and this will usher in a much warmer air mass for Wednesday as a result, temperatures will likely rise overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will rise from the mid minus single digits to the low minus single digits to near the freezing mark for some areas. 

Wednesday: Southern Manitoba will become enveloped in the warm sector of low pressure system on Wednesday with high temperatures soaring into the mid to high single digits. Some areas may get closer to the 10°C mark along the American border. Temperatures on Wednesday may approach record highs given the fact that our normal daytime highs for December is in fact close to -10°C. 

Wednesday night: Overnight low temperatures for majority of the region will drop again below zero but will hang around the -3 to -5C° mark some areas may be a bit warmer specifically south, central and southern Manitoba. 

Thursday again much of southern Manitoba will be in the southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system expected for Thursday night that will impact extreme Southwestern portions Manitoba.Temperatures on Thursday will rise in to the mid plus side, single digits. 

There is also a possibility that record high temperatures will be again broken on Thursday with temperatures again soaring past 4°C for majority of the region. 

Thursday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Thursday will stay mild above for areas of the south east and south central part of Manitoba areas. The south west will drop below zero. There is also a possibility for increasing moisture with a low pressure system moving through in the morning hours into Friday. The precipitation, timing type and amounts are still yet to be determined. There will be information posted in a future post about this on Thursday afternoon or evening, there is also going to be a weekend blog posted around that time so look for that on Thursday afternoon or evening.