Another Round of storms likely tonight

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to strike southern Manitoba and it could get quite interesting later this evening. Read to find out more...

A Enhanced risk for severe storms is possible in the Red River Valley with a surrounding slight risk area. A already hot and humid airmass is in place for the remainder of the day today and this evening. A potent cold front will go through Southern Manitoba tonight while stalling out over the Red River valley this evening and overnight. The moisture ahead of this front with dewpoints in the mid to high teens, MLCAPES from 1,000 to 2,000 and MUCAPES 1,500 to 2,500, Lifted Indicies of -4 to -8 and bulk shear of 30 to 45knots will result in potentially severe storms. Supercell storms will begin to develop in the western slight risk area around early evening moving east into the enhanced risk area, after suppertime then they will move northnortheast and build into a squall line (multicell thunderstorms) training along the cold front as they lift NNEwards.  As the storm motion will be slow and storms will train along the front in the Red River Valley flooding will be possible along with the potential for golf ball to tea cup size hail, (as forecast by Skew T graphs) winds in excess of 70km/h and frequent dangerous lightning thus a enhanced risk is favoured for areas of the Red River Valley. The storms will gradually move east into Eastern Manitoba overnight and should weaken gradually as less favourable severe parameters are in place there. A more significant rainfall will be in play the day Sunday into Monday with rainfall amounts as high as 75mm. Will update later on that situation.

Severe Weather Returns Hopefully for the last time this year! :(

The rest of today will be an unusually warm and humid day for late August but nonetheless hopefully the last day we see severe weather because of this consistent stormy pattern all summer. Some are getting tired of it and I am especially.

The severe weather threat today will be along and ahead of a cold front that will be encountering a hot and humid airmass. Areas in the light red have the highest risk for supercell development as it is a Enhanced risk, with the sorrounding risk area in orange a strong to Moderate risk. Here are the ingredients we have today

Massive EHI values west of and including Winnipeg.

Moisture: Dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's, PWATS from 40 to 60mm.
Instability: Lifted Index's from -6 to -10C, MLCAPES from 2,500 J/Kg to 3,500 J/Kg and MUCAPES from 4,000 to 5,100 J/Kg.
Shear: Storm Relative Helicity from 165 to 319m2 s-2, Bulk Shear from 30 to 45 knots, EHI's of 3 to 5.3 which means EF2 to EF5 Tornadoes possible especially from Portage east into the Winnipeg and Emerson areas. SigTor from 1 to 3, best risk for significant tornadoes are along the USA border.
Trigger: Powerful Cold Front going through late afternoon to after midnight.

As a result of these ingredients severe weather will be likely as the front encounters the soupy airmass, Supercells will likely develop in the enhanced risk area and points west and persist as they move eastwards, the risk for tornadoes will be present in the enhanced ( moderate risk areas if they stay surface based). At the moment given the SKEW T Graphs and data by the NAM Tornadoes will be a risk (only if they stay surface based) from Portage La Prairie Eastwards through Winnipeg and into the whiteshell areas south to the USA Border. Strong Tornadoes will be possible as a result of such high CAPES and the shear we have. If storms manage to organize early enough and possibly become elevated the risk will only present itself west of Winnipeg. Regardless storms will organize into a squall line that will impact the Winnipeg and Red River Valley in the mid evening hours (if they are surface based they will pose a tornado threat as well, squall lines can be surface based). The storms will pose a threat for large hail up to softball size, winds in excess of 100km/h, heavy rainfall up to 100mm possible in locales, and dangerous frequent lightning. The storms will swing east southeast into North Dakota in the midnight timeframe. People are urged to follow updates from Manitoba Weather Center and Environment Canada for updates.


Storms will clear overnight leaving behind cooler and sunnier weather for the first half of the week before more heat and storms arrive to start September.

Severe Weather Today, ushering in cooler air.

Today will be another one of those days severe weather will return as a cold front moves into the area and encounters the hot humid airmass. This has very well become the new normal in Manitoba and it is a hard fact to swallow, though all we can do is just take it as it is. Hopefully we can enjoy some warm dry weather in September before summer is over.

There will be another day of severe weather today and it is already starting up in Southwest Manitoba, however this is not the main event. A high risk is present in the southeast part of the province including Winnipeg, areas in the interlakes have a moderate risk of severe weather where high instability levels present. Although a slight risk of severe weather is present further west in the Brandon area into the parklands with ongoing storms today with lesser instability present. A frontal system riding along the ridge will encounter a hot and humid airmass that is in place in the region.

Sufficient moisture will be available for storms today with dewpoints in the high teens and low 20's, along with PWAT values in the 30 to 45mm range. Large instability in the atmosphere will also be present today with Lifted Indicies in the -7 to -11 range, MLCAPE 1,000 in Far Northern South MB to 2,500 and 3,500 in the south as well as MUCAPE 2,000 to 4,000. Bulk Shear values in the 40 to 65knot range and very little EHI. The trigger will be our Cold Front moving through.

Discussion: Severe Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning ahead of a trough and they will move east northeast throughout the day into the interlakes, another cold front will be moving through later in the day today with the hot and humid airmass. It will remain capped for much of the earlier half of the day in moderate to high risk areas with storms struggling to develop, however the cap will slowly erode throughout the day in the Red River Valley and Southeast MB. Once the cold front goes through the cap could be eroded enough for storms to develop especially west of and in the Red River Valley supercells could very develop given extreme instability levels present that are building through the day. In early storm modes all severe weather will be possible from heavy rainfall rates in excess of 40mm flooding will be possible, hail from loonies to tennis balls possible with larger hail possible in southeast MB and the southern Red River Valley  but still a potential for golf balls or smaller in the central and northern Red River Valley in to the interlakes. Winds in excess of 90 to 100km/h, frequent dangerous lightning and tornadoes as possibility in discrete supercells but a small chance compared to what we have seen earlier this year. Once storms organize into a line (depending on where they form) either from west of Winnipeg or east of the city they will pose as mainly a straight line damaging wind threat and hail threat as they move east into the Red River Valley or Northwest Ontario. Storms should clear by late evening to after midnight.

Cooler and drier weather is expected tomorrow into Thursday and the weekend.

Hello Stormy Weather, Welcome Back!!

Winnipeg and muchh of southern Manitoba is in for another round of thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow, it is the usual summer type weather that we still can not seem to get rid of.

Tonight will be one of those nights that many people love or fret, a cold front will be moving through southern Manitoba through the next few hours and severe weather will start to be an occurence. A Moderate/Enhanced risk is in place for much of southern Manitoba including Winnipeg, a slight risk is in place for the eastern portions of Manitoba including the interlake regions. A much lower risk is up for the Northeastern portions of Southern Manitoba including parts of the Canadian shield with Bissett in the center.

Dewpoints will be in the mid to high teens with PWAT values in excess of 30 to 40mm, MUCAPE's from 1,500 to 2,500 J/KG. MLCAPES of 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg. Lifted index's of -4 to -9. As well as Storm Relative Helicity values of 300 to 700m2-s2 and Bulk Shear from 25 to 35 knots which is 46 to 64 km/hr. Trigger will be a cold front moving in from the North. 
 

Simulated Radar Imagery Tonight into tomorrow morning, decent severe storms possible.

  

Total Precipitation for the period of 7pm Aug 17 to 5am Aug 18

 Tonight a cold front will be moving into Southern Manitoba and storms have already begun to fire in Western Manitoba, this front is what will be causing the ongoing severe weather over the coming hours. In early storm stages early to mid evening some very large hail up to golfballs are possible, flooding rains, dangerous frequent lightning, powerful wind gusts and the risk of Tornadoes. With storms that have developed we expect them to congeal into a squall line probably past the Brandon area as they move East into the Red River Valley, the tornado risk will decrease as the storms form into a line however there will be a continued risk for large hail up to ping pong balls or toonie to nickel size hail, damaging winds in excess of 90km/h, flooding rains as much as 30mm is possible and frequent lightning. Storms will weaken as they enter Eastern Manitoba. Showers and storms will be possible for the remainder of the morning on Thursday, with clearing by midday.

Cooler and drier weather will end off the week into the weekend and next week, with warmer weather mid to late week.

Severe Weather Has begun and will continue this evening.

Today is marking another hot and humid day which will be fueling more thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thanks to a arriving cold front from the west.

Severe weather risk map as courtesy of TheWeatherNetwork with their permission from my twitter account.

More severe weather will be on tap for the rest of the evening in southern manitoba ahead of another cold front.This could very well be another busy evening time will tell though.

Brandon Manitoba Weather hazard for tonight.

Winnipeg weather hazard for tonight. 

Let's have a look at the ingredients we have for tonights storms:
Moisture: Dewpoints in the mid to high teens some places above twenty Celsius, and precipitate-able water values in the 50mm+ range.
Instability: MUCAPES of 2,000 to 3,500 in all areas. MLCAPES of 1,500 to 2,500 J/Kg. Lifted Index  between -5 and -9.
Shear: 25 to 35 knots of bulk shear and SRH around 200m2s-2 increasing to 350 in the red river valley by evening.
Trigger: Cold Front approaching from the southwest in Saskatchewan.

(above a look at the simulated radar imagery for tonight)
Discussion: Considering storms have already fired in southwestern Manitoba I expect them to become supercells a risk of tornadoes is present in early storm modes, there already have been reports of funnel clouds by Rusell earlier. As the environment remains unstable thunderstorm development will continue into the evening hours. Large hail up to base balls, damaging winds in excess of 110km/h, frequent lightning and tornado risks are possible in the high risk area. Once they enter the Red River Valley and the interlakes the storms will encounter higher Storm relative helicity which sustains the risk for tornadoes but increases the factor for damaging winds. As a result the likelihood of a squall line with bowing segments remains possible into the evening for the Winnipeg area including the highlighted moderate risk area. In all instances with storms in the moderate risk area the risk for golf ball size hail, winds in excess of 100km/h, and flooding rains up to 50-70mm is possible along with dangerous frequent lightning. Areas in the slight and marginal risk area will have a smaller chance for severe storms but it will still be in place, mainly a isolated severe risk. The severe weather risk will end by 3am for most. Lingering storms will be in play in the morning but non severe mainly. Sunny weather for Tuesday before another round of potent severe weather on Wednesday once again possibly.

Get Ready to Flush out the heat and humidity! But not before we see storms!!!

Unfortunately we have another round of severe weather expected as the stubborn (yes stubborn!) heat and humidity clash with a system coming in from Saskatchewan.

Okay so I have gotten a lot of complaints about this potential another round of severe weather and yes I have to say that I am getting tired of it too, however this round of severe weather will not be as bad as the event we experienced on July 20. That's the good news! As the above map depicts we expect that the high risk area will be in the southwest part of Manitoba and into west central Manitoba into Northern Manitoba. Moderate risk extending further east into the red river valley and southern/central interlakes, whiteshell offers a slight risk towards the early morning hours.

Let's have a look at the Ingredients we have for storms tonight....
Moisture: With dewpoints in the high teens to low 20's and PWATS in the 30 to 50mm range flooding will definitely be a possibility in tonight's storms.
Instability: MUCAPE from 2,500 to 3,732 J/KG, MLCAPE 2,000 to 4,000 J/kg and Lifted indicies from -3 to -8 will help with storm development and maintenance into the night. As a result of CAPE being moderately to very unstable marginally severe hail will be expected with marble to golf balls as the largest possibility hail wise. Base balls could also be possible if conditions warrant enough in storms.
Shear: Will be weak to moderate with only about 100 to 300 m2s-2 Storm Relative helicity with the highest indicies in southwest Manitoba, moderate levels in the Red River Valley to about 200. Bulk shear from 35 to 45knots, EHI's of 2 to 3 in SW MB and the Red River Valley. Supercell indicie of 5 to 20 and significant tornado of 1 to 3 mainly in extreme southwestern Manitoba. That means there will be a strong wind threat with tornado potential.
Trigger: Powerful cold front moving through in the overnight hours into the morning hours.

Synopsis (Discussion)

Brandon METAR/TAF CYBR

Winnipeg METAR/TAF

Radar Image as courtesy of the NAM 4km Model 

CURRENT RADAR

So as I write this discussion storms are forming in saskatchewan, as they continue to move east they will develop further and organize more into a line, in the storms early stages expect them to present a tornado risk especially in southwest Manitoba where the high risk is present. Storms will then continue to move east and develop into a line, that means we will be dealing with a squall line of some kind by mid evening. All threats of severe weather will be possible, winds in excess of 100km/h, frequent cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning, hail up to the size of golf balls in the southwest but up to the size of ping pong balls to marbles in the red river valley, flooding rains and potential power outages. A few brief spinups (funnel clouds/tornadoes) are possible along the line late evening and overnight. They should enter Brandon around 9pm and Lake manitoba south to Portage La Prairie and miami into Pilot Mound around 11pm, Hecla south through Stonewall, Winnipeg, Carman, Morris, Emerson by 1 or 2am. Victoria Beach and Lake Winnipeg south through Beausejour and Steinbach into the whiteshell 3am to 7am timeframe. Overnight lows in the low 20's expected. Storms may redevelop if they die out in the morning in the Red River Valley, or they may reintensify meaning a chance for morning/early afternoon storms in the Red River Valley and eastman high's will be in the mid 20's with westerly winds south of the low that will be in northern Manitoba. They may be severe as well as remnants of tonight's ingredients are in place tomorrow. Please tweet storm reports to #MBstorm on twitter I also will be tweeting alerts and updates there as well, follow http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb for alerts and also follow Manitoba Weather Centre for updates and my twitter account www.twitter.com/southmbweather.

Enjoy the storms! I even bought popcorn to have when they roll in.

Nicer weather will be in place for the start of the week, however more storms will be possible Wednesday some severe.

Storms to clear out the heat and humidity

Today will present another severe weater risk as a cold front moves into the hot hmid airmass that is in place, however it will clear out the heat and humidity which is a very good thing.

Warm dewpoints in our area up to the low 20's possible, may fuel thunderstorms later today

Moderate risk of severe weather is expected today in the central parts of Southern Manitoba with a slight risk surrounding it.

Today will be another potentially stormy day weatherwise and it will be contingent on how much clearing takes place and how much we warm up we could get up to 25 or 26C in Winnipeg today, the risk will be presented as another trough moves into the area. Let's have a look at the indicies...
Moisture: Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 20's coupled with heat index (humidex values) in the low to mid 30's or higher should give a lot of moisture for storms to work with.
Instability: CAPE values will be in the 1500 to 3500 J/Kg range, with lifted indicies between -7 to -10 should help support storm growth and storm maintenance.
Shear: Bulk Shear in the 30 to 50 knot range, SRH 200 to 300 m2s-2, EHI's of 2 to 4, Supercell composite of 10 to 20, Significant Tornado Paramater of 1 to 3. Altogether should maintain storm organization, making supercell and tornado development a possibility.
Trigger: Cold Front going through late afternoon to early and mid evening should spark severe thunderstorm potential as it goes through.

Skew T Graph For Winnipeg, Tornado potential is there

The setup today appears to be severe but not as severe as Wednesday was, a moist and warm airmass will be in place today for much of Southern Manitoba ahead of a cold front that will usher out the hot humid air, but also bring in a moderate risk of severe weather for parts of Southern Manitoba.

A cold front is just situated along the MB/Sk border and will continue to move eastwards this afternoon, it may result in severe weather depending on how much clearing takes place. If there is still cloudcover not a lot will happen, showers may be possible along with the odd rumble of thunder. Now if it clears and gets warm and humid ahead of the front severe weather will definitely be possible. If the latter occurs I would expect a line of thunderstorms to develop out west of the Red River Valley where instability may be the greatest, supercells would likely develop and travel east into the red river valley by late afternoon and early evening with large hail up to ping pong ball size, winds greater than 90km/h, frequent and dangerous lightning, torrential rains up to 40mm possible, as well as a low tornado risk. The storms should be through Winnipeg by suppertime or shortly after. These storms may form into a line at some point or another, either by the time they reach the Red River Valley or shortly after. That would pose a straight line wind threat if anything else. The Storms should be out of the province by mid evening.

Calmer and quieter weather will be in place for the weekend into next week with more seasonable weather expected. Enjoy!

Another potential day of severe weather

Today will be another hot and humid day the potential for dangerous thunderstorms will also potentially arise this afternoon and evening fueled by high heat and humidity.

Today's dewpoints look to get in the low 20's, thus a heat warning is in place...

Today will present another severe weather risk and it could be quite dangerous!!! A couple of shortwaves will move through the hot humid air resulting in a risk for all modes of severe weather especially in the high risk area. Again this is conditonal given that the cap may or may not break.

Moisture: Warm Dewpoints advecting north into southern Manitoba with values of 20 to 25C, and humidex readings into the 40's meaning relative humidity values getting into the 60 to 70% range.

Instability: Through the roof! CAPES on the order of 3000 to 5500, Lifted indicies from -8 to -15 however capping may be an issue until the shortwaves come through which means that storms may tap into the greatest instability by late afternoon east of Brandon.

Shear: Great for supercell organization, tornadoes, and storm maintenance. Bulk shear in excess of 50 to 65 knots throughout the day, EHI values from 1 to 5, and Supercell Composite from 15 to 26.

 Trigger: 2 shortwaves approaching from the west entering southern Manitoba this afternoon and evening, that may hopefully break the cap.

Storms to fire around suppertime

Line of nasty supercells by evening in the Red River Valley

 Discussion: A high risk of severe weather will be present in southern Manitoba today with a sorrounding moderate risk in the interlakes, however it remains conditional due to capping. Today 2 shortwaves will be approaching from the west as a result as it encounters the hot humid air definite severe weather is possible. The cap is expected to weaken around suppertime in the Brandon area and if it does storms will explode to possible tops of 62,000 feet as per the GFA from Aviation weather services from NAVCanada. Supercells will likely develop around dinner time depending on where they fire they could impact areas of the westman region or the west Red River Valley regardless tornadoes are possible early on.  Once they organize into a line by mid evening in the red river valley or points west they either could move east or southeast depending on which way the winds carry them. Winds in excess of 100km/h dangerous hail up to tennis ball size, frequent dangerous cloud to cloud, cloud to ground lightning and torrential rains are likely with these supercells and the line as they move east. Tornadoes atre possible with the squall line or MCS however the risk is much lower, storms should exit the province by late evening or after midnight. Western Manitoba late afternoon/early evening, evening and near midnight for the Red River Valley, Winnipeg and Eastman.

Please follow Manitoba Weather Center, #mbstorm on Twitter and Manitoba Tornado Watch for updates regarding today's alerts, I'll be out volunteering again.

Heat and humidity return along with severe weather for Tuesday

The next few days (things are uncertain for Wednesday so I will do a post on Tuesday evening about Wednesday's potential) will be very active in southern Manitoba with the help of heat and humidity fueling thunderstorm potential, get ready because it is going to be hot!

Severe Weather risk map July 19, 2016

Heat on Tuesday in the mid 80's or high 20's

Dewpoints soaring into the low 20's to mid 20's by afternoon in southern Manitoba.

The day Tuesday looks very unstable hot and humid,high temperatures will soar into the high 20's along with humidex readings in the high 30s to low forties combined there will be a chance for extreme heat warnings by Tuesday morning. Things will get really interesting in the afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

Moisture: No shortage of moisture dewpoints will be advecting northwards along and ahead of the frontal system with values of 18 to 25C, PWATS of more than 1 inch or 50 to 70mm is likely.

Winnipeg Indicies CAPE and lifted index along with shear

Brandon Severe weather indicies for the next few days

CAPE INDEX for Tuesday

Lifted Index for Tuesday

Instability: No shortage of it (above) CAPES will be on the order of 2,000 to 5,000 J/Kg with afew places getting above 6,000. Lifted indicies getting from -7 to -13. This will be sufficent enough for explosive thunderstorm development come mid afternoon,, capping may be an issue though.

EHI for Tuesday at 5pm

Supercell composite for Tuesday afternoon

Significant Tornado Index July 19

Storm relative helicity july  19

Shear: High amounts of shear are available on Tuesday with a lot of Storm Relative Helicity available from 200 to 600 m2s-2, EHI of 5 to 8, and supercell composites from 12 to 25. Bulk shear from 50 to 60knots. This should be sufficent for the formation of dangerous supercells and possible tornadoes.

Trigger: Cold Front arriving from the west and a LLJ cranking up from the south ahead of the front.

Summary: Tomorrow will be a dangerous day weatherwise, a cold front will move through mid afternoon to mid evening, with serious CAPE levels there will be explosive thunderstorm development mid afternoon and evening. A high risk is present in the Western half of the province, and a moderate risk points east into the whiteshell. I expect storms to fire by around 4pm (if the cap doesnt hold) in western Manitoba where a high risk is present all modes of severe weather will be possible with huge discrete supercells likely early on, posing a risk of tornadoes and there could be a few touchdowns.  It will likely grow into a southeast or eastward moving MCS after organizing itself.  In both instances there will be a risk for very large hail up to golfballs and baseballs at best or soccerballs, yes soccerballs given extreme high CAPE, torrential flooding rains, ground scraping wall clouds and shelf clouds, winds in excess of 100km/h and frequent dangerous lightning. The risk for a few spinups or tornadoes will be present in the Red River Valley and Winnipeg by late afternoon and evening with the system, though not as high as a risk as the western half of the province. Western Manitoba mainly a afternoon event and the Red River Valley/Winnipeg, Eastman a late afternoon and evening event. Storms should clear by midnight for most. Remember this is subject to change and Justin on Manitoba weather centre should have updates through the day, I will be volunteering at the fringe festival in Winnipeg tomorrow 11am until 4pm at the patio or the beer tent feel free to stop by and say hi if you want.

I will have a quick update in the comments section by late afternoon and another post on Wednesday's potential late Tuesday Evening once storms clear. Remember to tweet reports to #mbstorm on Twitter and follow them there too!