Long Weekend Weather Update on the Way!!

Warm Weather Pattern Continues, Smoke and Haze likely as well.

 Southern sections of Manitoba (which is my forecast region) continue to experience warm and above average temperatures. The city of Winnipeg today reached a high of 29C. The hottest that it has been this month. This slightly warmer than average weather trend continues as we head into the rest of the week. This forecast will cover our weather into Thursday. 

(Above). The smoke plume above forecast to move into southern Manitoba on Wednesday night. 

Tonight: A northwesterly flow aloft will unfortunately bring smoke in from Alberta, it already has filled into our area with increasing haze. Our overnight temperatures tonight will drop and stay mild into the low to mid teens. No precipitation is expected. 

Tomorrow: Sunny skies are likely however there may be some haze. A northwest flow will continue impacting our area. It’s really bad Alberta right now because of the evacuations going on there. Temperatures on the day will again rise into the mid to high twenties. A low pressure, system will approach our area during the evening. Tomorrow night, will likely see increasing cloud cover overnight lows will drop into the mid teens. 

Wednesday: A front will be moving through in the early afternoon to evening hours with temperatures rising into the mid to high twenties before it passes through. There’s a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon. Given the fact low to moderate instability will be present, there’s a chance for non severe thunderstorms. Nothing like what we recieved earlier this month though. Wednesday night increasing amounts of smoke are likely behind the front as a strong northwest flow develops. Temperatures on Wednesday night in the west will drop into the low teens in the east and mid to high single digits in the west. 

Second half of the week: Calmer weather and slightly cooler temperatures are expected as high pressure builds into our region. Temperatures will return into the mid teens for highs and low to mid single digits for overnight lows. Cooler weather is possible over the lakes where lows may approach 0C. 

Warm weather sticks around, unsettled conditions likely. First thunderstorms of the year possible.

 Well it’s safe to say that after months of being in a below average temperature pattern, even though it’s been slightly above average for a while I am happy to announce that we are now in full spring mode in Southern Manitoba. As we head into the second half of the week a more unsettled weather pattern arises, with showers and sunny weather in store. A low pressure system stateside will bring increasing instability to our region for the day on Tuesday. We may also see some of our first summer weather events, hint hint it starts with the letter T and ends with S. Let us have a look at the upcoming weather pattern, so grab a rubber chicken so you can scream in joy and laughter and make it scream as we get into more typical spring weather.

 Today: Much of southern sections of the province today are either under cloud cover or periods of sun and cloud. Also rain continues to move through the interlakes and into the parklands region as well as western Manitoba. Any precipitation should clear out by early this evening. Temperatures for the rest of the day will be quite mild, with high values between 10 and 15C the exceptions being areas of southwestern and western areas where rain will occur highs only reaching around 7-10C. 

Tonight: Cloudy skies will persist as a stubborn area of low pressure that has weakened will sit over the region, regardless temperatures will remain stagnant with overnight lows in the mid to upper single digits. 

Tuesday (Above): An upper level disturbance will move into our area with low levels of instability on the day Tuesday, during the day some cloud will stick around and if that cloud can clear there may be a higher risk for non severe thunderstorms. There is a difference in timing the HRRR is showing showers and thunderstorms initiating during the afternoon hours in southwest Manitoba moving east into the red river valley by early evening where the NAM is letting it develop in the early evening reaching the red river valley by mid to late evening. I would probably go with environment Canada’s take and likely have a late afternoon early evening chance tomorrow . Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens and low 20’s. Our dew point temperatures will be hanging around 9-10C so storms may be higher in the atmosphere where the cloud bases are. Overnight low temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the high single digits to low teens ( the first of spring warmth for overnight) 8-12C likely. 

Wednesday: It’s gonna be one of those days where the weather is so nice out your gonna want to go outside, sunny skies are likely for the day on Wednesday. There’s a chance for some daytime heating convection and showers in the interlakes regions including the parklands. Temperatures are gonna soar into the high teens and low 20’s across southern Manitoba. Warmth will move into the central part of the province as well. Wednesday night: Increasing clouds are likely as convection south of the border drifts slightly northwards, otherwise clear skies are likely overnight lows in the low teens are likely in the southern half with the interlakes and parklands seeing values in the upper single digits. 

Second Half of the week: Models are struggling to develop an idea on where the Colorado low will move to as it develops over the second half of the week. Right now latest data is showing it sitting over North Dakota for a few days bringing the moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. If this decides to move north it may produce more rainfall than expected in the forecast right now . Convection may also be a possibility as it looks to be convectively driven , rainfall amounts at this time look to be heavier stateside. With us only getting scattered showers and or weak thunderstorms. Temperatures during the second half of the week will remain mild with high values in the upper teens and low 20’s. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Have a good week. -Mike McGregor

Above Average Temperatures Arriving

 Update on our weather pattern for this week: Southern sections of Manitoba will likely enter an above normal temperature pattern over the coming days a large ridge will be developing out in western Canada that will move eastwards as time moves on this week. This same ridge will be responsible for significant warmth moving into the Canadian prairies. Whether this ridge stays and builds further north as it moves east or flattens is still to be determined, however the latest NAM shows the ridge flattening as it moves over the Canadian prairies and northern plains mid to late week.

The good news is that regardless our temperatures will rise, on the day Tuesday looks like high temperatures will be rising into the mid to high teens. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid single digits, on Tuesday night. Looks like showers will move through on early Tuesday night into the morning on Wednesday from north to south. Cloudy skies are likely as well. Wednesday will end up being a very warm day with high temperatures rising into the mid to high teens with areas closer to the Canadian border seeing values into the 20C degree range. Overnight lows on Wednesday night look similar and will finally sit around the normal values between 5 and 10C. These temperatures will continue into the mid to high teens, during the second half of the week. I’m seeing Thursday a potential day where high temperatures could still rise as high as 20C in some areas. Thursday night lows will drop into the mid single digits again. The second half of the week these values will continue in the mid to high teens and low 20’s with overnight lows in the single digits 4-10C. . The weekend there’s a chance for a low pressure system to form as a southwest flow aloft moves in, there’s a good chance for rain on Saturday, Sunday and I’m already seeing signs of instability building in. A chance at our first thunderstorms are possible but we will know more by Friday. 

Have a good week. -Mike McGregor

Mild Spring Weather Pattern Continues

 Well it’s true much of our region has been well below normal this season, that pattern has thankfully finally changed. We now begin this half of the week with more normal temperatures, however there once again is a caveat to this. We have another chance at getting a low pressure system that will begin effecting our weather outlook, the good news however is that this will likely come in the form of rain. Find out where, when and how much rain is expected as well what we can expect for our temperature pattern. Which I am glad to say in that we are done with winter weather terms, I look forwards to posting about convection and thunderstorms in the coming months. I really enjoy this part of my job, maybe the next few months you’ll hear some weather jokes from me . 😊😊. 

We’re gonna keep this post short and simple. Wednesday looks to be one of those days you want to bring your rain jackets and umbrellas, There will be an increasing cloud cover over the region as a frontal system approaches our region. A general 5 to 10mm is likely as the front moves through from west to east.

Another thing to note is the intensity of the rainfall, theres a possibility that there will be thunderstorms (Above photo) embedded with the rainfall however it’ll be occasional lightning and thunder as a chance. Temperatures will vary from being in the upper single digits in the southeast to the low teens in the southwest and parklands thanks to sunny skies in the west after the clipper passes. Wednesday night will feature a chance for isolated showers and weak thunder showers in the interlakes during the first half of the evening before clearing overnight. Temperatures will stay a degree or 2 above zero except for areas in the interlakes, red River valley and southeast where a chance for lows below zero (-1C to -2C) possible.

Thursday:  Sunnier skies are likely for most, except areas of extreme south there will be a chance for showers in extreme southwestern Manitoba and areas along the border as a low pressure system travels southeast into North Dakota. Temperatures will likely rise into the mid to high single digits in the south along the border and areas in the parklands by Dauphin up to Swan River. Areas across the southern half of Manitoba will do well again with values pushing past the 10C mark, if we get values 10-12C it would be in cloud free locations mostly all of the south including the interlakes. Thursday night: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely with overnight lows dipping into the low plus single digits (1 to 4C) with areas varying in values. Unfortunately this time of year a rural area can be a lot cooler than an area in the city limits, temperatures at night are still running well below the average. 

Friday and Friday Night: Another area of low pressure will likely sit along the border and a small chance of showers will likely present itself as a northwest flow sits over our area towards the evening. Temperatures are likely to rise into the high single digits, with some areas in the east rising to near 10C. Mostly cloudy skies are likely, again heading into Friday night a likelihood of scattered showers moving southeast and a small chance of flurries in the northern parklands by Swan River. Temperatures will drop on the night into the low single digits. 

The weekend and next week: Temperatures will remain cooler than average as we remain on the backside of a strong low pressure system, temperatures will struggle to reach the 10C mark for day time highs and overnight lows may plunge to the low single digits or a few degrees below 0C for overnight lows. However there is good news that by next week our daytime highs will finally rise to where they are supposed to be , and May in fact rise towards and possibly above 20C for the first time this year. This warmth may be the first real summer heat of the season. 

Get Ready for Another Snowstorm??!! Colorado Low Pressure System Set To Impact Manitoba, Again??

Much of southern Manitoba will likely be under the gun again for significant winter weather and the likelihood of snow and blowing snow, there will be a colorado low coming up from the United States which will feed on gulf moisture on the south end of the system. I honestly hope this will be the last snowstorm to talk about this coming year. Anyways let’s have a look at the latest information that I have been able to look at through the HRRR, NAMNest and the NAM4km. 

Tonight: South of the border an area of thunderstorms will develop in North Dakota and will impact areas around Fargo. Further North snow and blowing snow will be impacting areas of western North Dakota which will likely not impact our region until morning. So there will be a bit of reprieve before the main event begins. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits, except for areas of the red River valley where lows will stay around 0C. Below are photos of precipitation for Wednesday morning, in 2 scenarios, and Wednesday afternoon as well. 

Scenario 1: Above

Scenario 2 Below:

Scenario 1: 

Scenario 2:

Wednesday: This is by far a tricky forecast so expect 2 scenarios for the day.  During the morning (above) a squall line of heavy snow could develop and push through southern Manitoba which would be the first scenario, (Above) with it there will be a hazard of freezing rain for areas along the border. Which later in the day, snow will likely move through the entire half of Manitoba.  Scenario 2: A large swath of snow moves into Manitoba with areas along the international border showing a risk for freezing rain and or sleet/ice pellets. As this lifts North the risk of freezing rain and rain will begin to fill in across the southeast and south central parts of Manitoba. There is some concern for extended periods of freezing rain in western Manitoba during the day time. Mixed precipitation will be likely in areas of the red river valley west towards Brandon and the parklands until about later on in the day. Things will likely taper off by the evening. Areas further west will be under the brunt of the heavy snowfall,, snow and blowing snow there will reduce visibility to near 0km at times. Highway travel will be impossible at points, however Saskatchewan looks to bear the brunt of the heavy snow on Wednesday. Read to the end to find out rainfall and snowfall totals. Temperatures on the day Wednesday will rise into the low minus single digits for some areas a degree or 2 above zero. 

Wednesday Night (Above): A full transition over to snowfall is likely as temperatures drop overnight, the snow will be covering pretty much all of the region as far North as the north interlakes. The low pressure system moves further east we will begin to switch over to the backside of the system. Snow and blowing snow at times may be heavy, winds will also gust to over 60km/h at times. Temperatures will likely stay at or slightly below zero for a large region of the south (-2C to +1C).   

Thursday (Above): Heavy snowfall will likely develop across southeastern regions of southern Manitoba, before it reaches all of southern sections Manitoba. It will also likely be a wet snow as temperatures will be close to the freezing mark, near the -1 to -3C range. I am concerned about the chance that given such tight gradients that winds could likely exceed 50-70km/h. Highway travel will not be advised during the day Thursday. 

Thursday Night (Above): Snow and blowing snow will continue as a double barrled low pressure system will spill moisture in from Ontario, if you’re wondering on the night Thursday if any of the snow will be less heavy. The good news is that I can tell you that it will likely be more on the moderate strength. The only concerns I have is given the prolonged nature of this snow as you will read more below is highway closures. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits varying temperatures (-1 to -4C). 

Friday (Above): Snow and blowing snow will be less severe on the day Friday, there will be periods of heavier snow however winds will likely still gust up to 70km/h at times. This system will not wane down until at least Friday night. Winds will also begin to blow out of the northwest, word of encouragement if we were to go back 2 months a northwest wind would give us windchills of -20C or more. So I consider +1C to +3C a blessing, which will be our day time highs on Friday.

Friday night (Above): Snow will begin to taper off, and calmer weather will arrive finally. Overnight clearing is possible and low temperatures will drop from as warm as -4C in the east to as cold as -8C in the west. Simply put well below average. 

Snowfall Totals: Much of southern sections of Manitoba look to have totals of 10 to 20cm from the border to the interlakes regions. A swath of snow from the pembina valley towards the parklands could get upwards of 30 to 40cm. Red River valley and the southwestern half of Manitoba 10 to 25+cm. So in general if melting occurs there could be a lot less accumulation than forecasted. 

 I know given that temperatures will be so close to above freezing this will be heavy wet snow. So there is a possibility of power outages across the south. Have a power outage plan in case you do lose power. Also do not travel unless you have to . 

Please stay tuned to Manitoba weather centre for updates as the storm evolves. 

Warmer weather will be arriving by the weekend with temperatures above the freezing mark likely, and overall higher values mid week next week. Same as well with overnight lows gradually rising. Our normals are around 12C and 3C for overnight lows. 

Spring Melt Well Underway.

 The melt has begun over southern sections of Manitoba and the good news is that finally this trend looks to continue, I know a lot of you were very unhappy when I had wrote about snow and cold temperatures over and over again. Guess what?? You can now all be nice to me again . A strong pacific flow is allowing warm weather to move into our region. Let’s get into details for the weekend,, and the week ahead. You won’t want to miss it!! This blog will be short and brief. 😊

This weekend will be marked, by average temperatures with some of the warmest weather we have experienced in at least well since last year. A strong pacific flow has developed which is typical of spring weather patterns, this same jetstream pattern is what allows for that warmth to happen in BC during the winter months and that shift in the jetstream (above) will allow for that warmth to spread eastwards. 

This weekend a ridge will begin developing which will aid in temperatures reaching the mid to upper single digits for day time high temperatures, (5 to 8C) overnight low temperatures will be sitting a few degrees below zero on Saturday night and Sunday night with average temps of (0 to -5C). 

Overnight lows will gradually warm throughout the week with lows staying above zero degrees. There could be days this week where our high temperatures get above the 10C mark, especially on Tuesday-Thursday. The unfortunate thing however is given the fact we still have snow on the ground there is no way to tell how the snowpack will interact with the warmer temperatures, there is a risk that because of the amount of moisture being thrown into the atmosphere fog may become a common occurrence until the snow melts. Why is this?? for those wondering our dewpoint temperatures which I just had a glance at will sit above zero both overnight and during the day time, sitting fairly close to the actual temperatures. This means that the air will not freeze but will allow for liquid to stay in the air as the ground heats up then cools you get these fog patches at lower levels. That could hinder our day time high temperatures if fog develops. However either way you put it there will be a significant risk for flooding as the snow pack diminshes. The following graphics give you an idea of how much snow is left to melt. 

Unfortunately given that there is still between 2 to 16 or 18 inches of snow left to melt with snow water content from 1-10 inches and the ground is still frozen there will be a high chance that water may not be absorbed given the saturated ground. Please keep in mind that flooding will likely occur as the snow pack dissapears rapidly next week and given overnight low temperatures will stay above zero rapid melt is likely. Here is a place you can go to follow the flood situation: Hydrologic Forecast Centre | Manitoba Infrastructure | Province of Manitoba (gov.mb.ca) 

Looking at the long range this steady temperature pattern of highs in the mid to high single digits will continue with overnights possibly seeing lows below zero, but for the majority will remain above freezing. Next weekend there is a chance that there could be another colorado low at the end of the week on Friday with rain as a possibilty mainly. The chance of Snow is quite unlikely or low however. After that temperatures cool slightly with highs between 3 to 9C. I will watch this and update as the event draws nearer.