Shower and Thunderstorm chances return, severe weather again a risk

 Southern Manitoba is at risk again for increased amounts of unsettled weather with the risk of thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms. As a large ridge sits off to the south in the central United states a trough of low pressure will cascade over western Canada bringing another area of low pressure which will move into central canada and Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather pattern and temperature pattern as we also expect a strong ridge to build over us this weekend. 

Tonight: A system in Montana and southeastern Saskatchewan will increase the convective potential. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens, there is a large area of CAPE into the 1,000 range in southwestern portions of Manitoba. As a result there is a likelihood that thunderstorms will develop in montana and drift north into all areas of western Manitoba. There is a high chance that those areas could see rainfall totals in the 25 to 50mm range, there is also a threat for large hail and damaging winds. I do not see tornadoes at all as a threat. 

Thursday: Thunderstorms will continue in the morning hours in western Manitoba with the highest chances in central Manitoba showers may spread across the south in the morning, potentially preventing storm energy from being able to build up in the afternoon. Hoewever if showers clear by the late morning storm potential may increase.  Latest data right now is also showing clearing coming by the afternoon hours, a trough will sit off to the west in western Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of moisture will move in from the United states covering much of Manitoba with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens. As a result MUCAPES are forecast to be in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range, over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage storms either will only impact eastern Manitoba and the Lake Winnipeg regions or completely hit the red river valley and eastern sections of the province. We will find out more about the threat area in the latest update from environment canada in the morning, based on what I see currently there is a threat for thunderstorms across southern Manitoba on the day Thursday with the southeast at the biggest risk for severe thunderstorms, areas in western Manitoba could have training thunderstorms. TEMPERATURES: Forecast to be in the mid 20's in the southwest and the high 20's and low 30's in the southeast with humidex in the mid to high 30's. 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are forecast again with overnight lows in the mid teens in the southwest and west, areas in the southeast can expect lows in the high teens. (15-18C). Some remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible as the area of low pressure moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Friday: Calm weather is expected and the same for friday night, under the presence of a building ridge of high pressure. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid to high 20's. Friday Night: Overnight lows likely in the mid to high teens with clear skies and a westerly flow likely. This is really good because it will prevent us from seeing significant smoke from filtering in. I dont see any northwesterly flow developing this weekend allowing that as a potential. 

The Weekend (Above): The weather starts becoming more interesting, troughing is likely over the southwestern United States which will create sort of a digging southwards then a extension north and eastwards that will basically allow the jetstream to sit over our region. What that means is there will more than likely be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, there could be a threat for storms some may be severe. Also the heat runs into Saturday and Sunday as we see high temperatures once again in the high 20's and low 30's. There may or may not be higher levels of humidity that is still to be determined. Regardless an interesting end of meteorlogical summer is likely. 

Unsettled Weather Set To Run Over Southern Manitoba

 Southern Sections of Manitoba will be in the crosshairs of remnants of Tropical storm hillary this week, which is unheard of for this part of the world. The upper level flow and jetstream is setup with a large ridge over the northern United States. We are sitting on the north side of that with the main jetstream over top of us, which will increase the chances again for showers and thunderstorms and ridge riding low pressure systems. Find out what that means for us in this weeks blog.

Tuesday: During the day Tuesday, remnants of Tropical storm Hillary will be moving through central areas of Manitoba bringing with it a chance at convection and rainfall with amounts of 5 to 15mm. Cloudy skies are forecast once again across southern Manitoba however that may change as I am seeing some forecast potential of high pressure off to the northeast, despite this a frontal system will sit off to the southwest which may allow for some form of trigger for thunderstorms in southeastern Manitoba during the afternoon and early evening. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range which will allow for marginally severe to possibly severe thunderstorms. Temperatures in the southeast part of Manitoba will rise into the mid to high 20's in that region, areas in southwestern Manitoba will however only see high values in the high teens to low 20's. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range, not significant shear will be present so if storms do develop they may have some difficulty organizing and they will be very isolatd. Regardless a risk for thunderstorms will be likely across a large portion of southern Manitoba with areas in the southeast at a moderate risk level.

Tuesday Night: Showers or Thunderstorms will exit the province by the evening. Overnight temperatures in the southeast will likely drop into the high teens and areas in the southwest in the mid teens. Cloudy skies will likely remain in place. 

Wednesday: Temperatures on the day Wednesday will even be hotter with high temperatures forecast into the mid to high 20's. The overall picture for the day is that a frontal system will sit off to our south as the ridge drags south, with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens the instability numbers willl only grow into the 700 to 1,500J/Kg range. There will be a risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Best chances for storms again appear to be in isolated pockets across the south. Nothing organized looks likely, however any storms that form will have the potential to bring large hail and damaging winds. We will monitor this forecast for updates. Overnight clearing can be expected with overall temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

Second Half of the week: More showers and thunderstorms look likely with a few more disturbances moving over the top of the ridge over the United states. Temperatures for this period will remain in the mid to high 20's for highs and lows in the mid to upper teens. 

Calm Weekend, Transition expected for Southern regions of Manitoba. Pattern Change on the Way!!!

 Southern Manitoba has experienced a wild past 24 hours with wind gusts associated with a cold front exceeding 90 km an hour at times. As a result, there has been reports of downed trees and powerlines across the province. The weather into our weekend can be expected to be calmer and quieter as a ridge builds over the central United States. A more robust pattern for storm chances increase along with heat heading into next week. Find out how this transition will occur and the weather we can expect before all this unfolds in this weekends blog. 

(Above:) Hot weather is likely on the day Friday with highs in the high 20’s and low 30’s. 

Friday: Southern Manitoba can expect a hot day on the day Friday with high temperatures in the low 30s, especially along the American border and high 20s, areas in along the American border may soar past the 30C mark. Moisture levels however will be low as dew points will not be able to climb into the teens until the early evening. Sunny skies are expected for the day on Friday however there may be some local haze as smoke from wildfires filters in to the region. Should be less than on Wednesday. \

Friday night: a cold front will be moving into southern Manitoba during the overnight. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected the HRRR is showing a line of thunderstorms moving into western Manitoba during the overnight. However not all models are latching on to this idea, if severe storms move into western Manitoba during the overnight they will have the potential to produce marginal to large size hail with strong winds and heavy rain. However there is limited moisture which may inhibit the chances for any thunderstorms to develop, weather severe weather develops is still unknown at this point. General MUCape is expected to be between 800 to 1500 with dew point temperatures in the mid teens. If thunderstorms are able to develop ahead of the cold front there will be the potential for large hail damaging winds intense lightning and a small chance that some of these storms could rotate. Confidence on severe weather is low at this point however we will update you if there are any model changes throughout the day on Friday. Temperatures will likely drop into the high teens and low 20's, with areas in the southeast part of Manitoba the warmest. 

Saturday: It generally drier day should occur on The day Saturday if there remains any convection in the morning should clear by the afternoon, sunny skies are likely on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s in southwestern Manitoba and mid to high 20s in southeastern Manitoba. Smoke will begin to build back in to southern Manitoba on saturday evening, behind the front. This will be brief as another wave of southerly winds move in on Sunday. Saturday night, increasing cloud with some cooler temperatures are likely with lows in the mid teens are a possibility. 

Sunday: Warmer weather is likely with a return of high temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Increasing cloud is possible on the day Sunday with some showers possible towards the later half of the day. Overnight more cloud is likely with lows in the low teens in the west and mid to high teens in the east. 

The Week Ahead: Warmer weather is likely during the week with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms as a heat dome sits off to our south and the storm track sits over our region. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's are likely with lows in the teens, some days especially earlier in the week may see temperatures in the high teens for highs and low teens for lows. Next week the moisture leftover from Hillary (Hurricane hitting southwest USA will start filling into the jet stream next week impacting us likely. I’ll have more details about that next blog on Monday. 

NEW BLOG UPDATE FOR THE WEEKEND COMING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ;-)

 For Those wondering when I will be coming back online, dont worry I will be back online with you all on the day Thursday with a updated weather blog in video formation. Or plain old blog. Stay safe out there in the wind folks, and try to stay inside with the smoke that is forecast. ;-)

Unsettled weather returns, with shower and thunderstorm chances. Seasonal temperatures continues as well.

 Southern Manitoba and the region as a whole will finally be able to recieve more moisture as a strong to moderate jet stream will be sitting over the canadian prairie provinces, what this will do is increase the moisture prospects for areas that desperately need rain. There will be some periods of thunderstorms as well. Temperatures for the period however will run near normal to slightly below normal. This blog will cover the forecast into Thursday. 

****I also have some exciting NEWS I run a radioshow on CKUW 95.9FM in Winnipeg every Tuesday at 9PM, based in winnipeg it is a electronic music focused radioshow but the music is definitely worth giving a listen to. Please share with as many people as you can if you are looking for some good dance music***

Tonight (Left): A cold front will linger over the prairie provinces into central Manitoba, there currently is a severe thunderstorm watch for areas of central Manitoba as I write this. Tonight there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms ocassionally occurring mainly in areas of the parklands into the interlakes and the red river valley as the cold front begins to move south.Into the overnight and additional batch of precipitation could sneak into western portions of Manitoba, with a chance of broad moderate rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. Towards the early morning hours there will be the chance for a risk of thunderstorms especially areas along the trans canada highway south to the american border. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday (Left: Image of thunderstorms on Tuesday morning in southern Manitoba): Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the early morning hours and mid to late morning as the cold front swings south, then another round of possible showers may move through behind the convection in the morning. These storms are not forecasted to be severe though some marginally severe hail is possible. A general 2 to 5mm can be expected in areas that see rain. Cloudy skies should clear come the afternoon hours with temperatures by the afternoon reaching the mid 20's, some areas in the region seeing highs in the upper teens especially in the lakes regions. 

Tuesday Night: A generally calmer night is likely behind the cold front, a northerly wind will likely end up being present with clear skies and some occasional cloudcover. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid teens, some ares in the parklands and in the interlakes areas may see lows below 10C. There is a chance though that the models are overdoing the cool overnight lows. We will keep you updated, hopefully there isnt a risk for any frost. 

Wednesday: Another chance at unsettled weather comes on the day Wednesday, when a warm front and frontal system moves into southeastern saskatchewan there a small line of showers and rumbles of thunder may sneak into extreme western and southwestern Manitoba however it may completely miss the region and may move into north Dakota and western Montana instead. Regardless mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the high teens and low 20's. 

Wednesday Night: A low pressure system will approach the region and this one more than likely will approach the region bringing a really good chance for some weel needed rain. A swath of showers will more than likely move through the overnight in areas of southwestern Manitoba, the parklands and areas of the red river valley. They will persist into the morning hours. No thunderstorms are forecast however. Overnight lows look likely to drop into the low to mid teens in the east and west with areas inbetween seeing lows in the high single digits for the red river valley. 

Second Half of The Week: Confidence seems lower on terms of the overall upper level pattern. There will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms on the day thursday and friday.  There will be another chance for 10-20mm of rain possible as advertised by the GDPS, some of this could be thunderstorms as well. Highs for the second half of the week remain cooler than average, with only values again which is more typical of september at about near 20C or slightly above that. Overnight lows will more than likely remain in that same

Heat and Humidity return briefly, severe thunderstorm chances return.

 Southern sections of Manitoba may be experiencing another round of possible severe weather tonight, and tomorrow. Another low pressure system is forecast to move into the region bringing a renewed chance of stormy weather as well as some calmer periods of weather inbetween. Much like a typical summer weather pattern. Find out more on what this means for us this week and the upper weather pattern expected.

( Above: Damaging Squall Line may move through the red river valley in the early morning hours to around lunchtime.) Watch for watches and warnings that get issued at the start of the daytime.) 

Tonight: A disturbance in Saskatchewan will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop in western Manitoba this evening into the overnight period. Areas to watch will be the parklands area of Manitoba and Swan River duck mountain areas further east and southeast into the early overnight. Models are not really showing much in the way of severe thunderstorm activity hitting southwestern Manitoba but with a large area of 2,500 to 3,000J/Kg CAPE there is a odd risk of a supercell or 2 developing with the potential for hail up to the 6cm diameter which would be Baseball to tennis ball size hail. There is also a risk for winds in excess of 100km/h, given the fact storms this year have been following the flow around a ridge of high pressure in the states they will move south, southeast wards along the axis of this upper feature which now sits over texas. There is also a chance if this does develop in southwest parts of Manitoba, there may be other thunderstorms that may form in the parklands in the mid to late evening or early overnight. These will probably move into the red river valley by the early morning hours after moving through the interlake after 3am central time. Overnight lows are likely to drop into the upper teens tonight with a few areas staying warm enough to only sit around 20C, especially urban areas. Thunderstorms may lower these forecast temps if one area sees local effects from thunderstorms. 

Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours before another round of convection looks likely in the afternoon and early evening however it is all dependant on the first batch of storms during the morning hours. There will be a cold front working through the area in the early evening, if storms can clear early enough a large batch of (Thunderstorm Energy) CAPE will establish over the red river valley and some parts of western Manitoba as dewpoint temperatures climb into the high teens and low 20's which would provide ample moisture to work with in creating severe storm potential. There is also going to be some very hot temperatures with areas of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba seeing highs around 30-33C and humidex probably reaching the low 40's areas that are in the west will see these temperatures earlier in the day and drop into the low to mid 20's if storms start moving through after lunchtime the RDPS however seems to keep the heat on in these areas with no storms moving through if that scenario unfolds and most storms happen in North Dakota as some of the higher resolution models are showing then I would think that high temperatures across the region including the southwest would see values in the high 20''s and low 30's. Regardless a hot and humid day will likely be in the outlook with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms as forecast by Environment Canada in the red river valley and portions of the pembina valley east to Ontario. (See risk map for more details).

Tuesday Night: Much calmer weather is likely as the front that moved through which either increased severe weather potential or brought in heat and humidity will move out by the evening hours. That frontal system behind it will be followed by a small high pressure system. Regardless dewpoints will still sit in the mid teens so it wont be a drier airmass but a more humid one. To those working on crops this weather is perfect for growing even overnight. Temperatures will drop into only the high teens.

Wednesday: More than likely a nicer summer day with little in the way of precipitation expected, except for a few pop up showers or weak thunderstorms. I am kind of surprised at how warm itll be getting this Wednesday, our high temperatures will rise into the high 20's and low 30's with the hottest of that weather, not surprsingly situated over the parklands where a southerly flow will likely sit thanks to those areas being under the stronger backside flow of the high pressure system out ahead of a warm front. Wednesday night much of the same can be expected with lows in the mid to high teens, typical of early August. 

The Second half of the week; Heat and a chance at humidity again build in although the confidence on that right now is quite low on the airmass having high enough dewpoints to support a humid enough atmosphere but that could change. Though I wouldnt be surprised given the flow coming directly from the gulf of mexico. High temperatures from this period will more than likely be above normal with areas seeing highs in the low 30's and high 20's. Overnight lows again will likely be in the low 20's and high teens. This will be interesting to find out later on if the projected temperatures turns into a mini heatwave for us. Storm chances may also increase in this period with this heat, will monitor this for any changes. 

Heat, humidity and Severe Weather threats return this week in Manitoba .

 After a long break , I’m back forecasting. Anyways, the pattern were in southern sections of Manitoba will likely be experiencing an interesting weather pattern over the coming days. A ridge of high pressure over the southwestern United States is finally advancing northwards, bringing with it significant amounts of heat south of the border and some of that heat will likely move into our area if it hasn’t already. There will also be a threat for severe weather again on the day Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Manitoba. Find out more as we look into this weeks blog. 

(above: Forecast temperature outlook above, for the day on Tuesday. HRRR vs NAM 

Tonight (Above): A weak warm front ahead of low pressure will be moving through bringing with it a chance for some unsettled weather conditions. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over south central Manitoba and the red river valley, into the interlakes. Temperatures will likely drop, into the low 20’s in southwestern Manitoba and high teens elsewhere. Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells.

Tuesday: Turns out to be a very interesting forecast, there is a risk for thunderstorms in the morning hours with over 1,000J/Kg of CAPE storms may be severe or marginally severe. Hail up to the size of 1-3mm in diameter are possible, so marginal and not the type you would see in supercells. The rest of the day severe weather is on the possible cards for the afternoon and evening hours areas in west central and the parklands area of Manitoba, depending on the evolution of earlier convection there may be a threat for severe thunderstorms in areas of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba as well. Storms may not at all develop in southern manitoba and may completely only occur in central Manitoba and the interlakes. Why ??? if storms are not too persistent on the day Tuesday morning. Temperatures are expected to rise into the high 20’s to low 30's across the region, with dewpoints rising into the mid to high teens and low 20's there will be a resultant MUCAPE of 1,500 to 2,500J/KG with SRH values of 100 to 300, and shear of 30-50knots with higher values into eastern sections of Manitoba. Regardless of the data I am expecting storms to develop during the late afternoon and early evening hours, the best chance for this development is a frontal system sitting over central Manitoba which would trigger storms on the edge of this heat. As storms happen there will be a possibility of hail up to the size of 1-3mm or larger in diameter, rain up to 50-75mm an hour, wind gusts up to 90km/h or more and the risk of a tornado but chance of that is a lot lower than previously seen earlier. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms will likely clear by the mid to late evening, clearer skies are likely in the overnight period. The good news is that calmer weather is likely on Tuesday night with overnight lows in the mid to high teens.  

Wednesday (Above): The attention turns then towards the day on Wednesday in southern Manitoba, the environment  will be primed for severe weather a frontal system will move through the region in the late afternoon and evening. With this system a lot of heat and humidity will be out ahead of it, im also not too concerned about the chance for cloudcover hindering the threat. As this is out more than 24 hours there will be some uncertain details about the exact timing and location, however severe thunderstorms and regular non severe thunderstorms will be possible. As usual watch for large hail and damaging winds and a tornado threat as well. We will know more on the day of the event. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20's and low 30's with the majority of the heat being centred over southwestern Manitoba. 

Second half of the week: Heat will gradually drop as a frontal system is forecast to help usher in cooler air. Temperatures will remain on the mild side as the heat takes a while to exit with temperatures in the high 20’s for highs and lows in the mid teens .