Warmer Weather is Returning!

After our fairy snowy weekend and start of the week with temperatures sitting below normal, we will now be welcomed with a return to more above normal like condition's. Though it won't last! Our day ahead should be fairly bright and sunny across Southern Manitoba with temperatures getting into the mid to high single digits, allowing the chance for some of the snow to melt. Much of the same will be for our overnight low's staying either above or close to zero degrees, the nice weather will come to an end on Wednesday as a cold front slides south. Cool arctic air will follow in the wake giving the region a blast of winter but not too cold if anything near -10C. No return of warm weather is in sight by the weekend.

Blog Posts Returning Soon!

After a busy summer holiday's and getting back into the old grind I have forgotten about the blog, it needs some work and I promise you there will be major improvements and soon. The next blog update is scheduled for October 15 or so, whatever the weather holds I will write all the details about it. Here's hoping for the first snowflake soon!

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Today

After we experienced a nice couple of days with showers and occasional storms mixed in with sunshine. We now are under the gun for severe weather once again, thank's to another trough of low pressure that is moving across the prairies.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Jul 13/14

A decent severe weather setup is in play today, with all of the conditions present and ready to go. Brad from A Weather Moment Quotes  "In the warm sector of this system ample daytime heating combined with increasing low-level moisture and gradual destabilization of the mid-to-upper-levels will work in tandem to produce MLCAPES of nearly 2000J/kg. The strong upper-level jets -- nearly 60kt at 500mb and over 100kt at 250mb will provide ample upper-level support for severe thunderstorms and, when combined with the surface flow and increasing 850mb LLJ in the late afternoon and evening, will produce 0-500mb bulk shear values of nearly 50-60kt." As a result there will be the likelihood for tornado producing supercells in areas of Southwestern Manitoba, bringing along with them the threats for large hail (Baseball size possibly) damaging winds, and deadly lightning. Areas under the gun include (Melita/Boissevain/Turtle Mountain Provincial Park/Virden/Souris/Western Parts of Killarney/Pilot Mound/Manitou and Brandon/Carberry/Treherene). Any storms that do produce tornadoes will likely give off weak to moderate tornadoes, however there is no way of telling the EF rating until damage is done. Folk's living in the threat area need to stay aware of changing and adverse weather condition's do get to safety if you see any green skies and or a funnel cloud/tornado! Don't wait for warnings to be issued, your window to the sky should be your warning. After the peak tornado timeframe ends (about 7pm) any activity should be able to merge together into a decent line of severe storms and travel eastwards through the evening hours. They will either weaken or maintain there strength as they move on eastwards into the Red River valley late evening or after midnight. That is why I have posted a slight risk for severe weather through and after the 12am period in the rest of Southern Manitoba. Things will calm down Sunday with sunshine and warmer weather, but not until we get through a few rough patches first.

Another chance at showers or thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday to start the week. Have a good time enjoying the storms!

Thunderstorm and Rain Threat Returns

After we received a brief reprieve from the rainfall and thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba today, a return to wetter and stormier conditions is expected as a trough of low pressure enters the region. The day will start off with some morning cloudcover or sunshine, it all depends on overnight convection and where it goes, but right now I am leaning towards more sunshine and warmth than cloudcover. As the trough approaches heat and humidity will begin to rise throughout southern Manitoba as southeasterly winds draw gulf moisture northwards once again. With the humidity rising, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the 15 to 20C range for much of SouthMB with an increase to 20 to 25C by late afternoon for South Central Manitoba but likely for the rest of Southern Manitoba come evening. High Temperatures will likely top out in the mid to high 20's, with likely a few localities bearing into the 30's especially along the border and in Southeastern Manitoba. Combined together the humidex values could be feeling closer to 40C considering the NAM is forecasting a 35C to 40C range. Add that a trough will be moving through southwestern Manitoba for the late morning to late afternoon and into the Red River Valley by evening to overnight before leaving the province by morning.

CAPE Values are expected to rise into the 3,000 to 4,000 J/KG range for much of SouthMB on Tuesday

Every thunderstorm parameter is looking excellent for Southern Manitoba, things have changed in the last model run and as a result CAPE Values will be from 2,000 J/Kg by early afternoon to 4,000 J/Kg by afternoon and evening but less so overnight, LI's of -10 to -12 for southwestern manitoba, but -8 to -10 for the rest of the south. Dewpoints will also be high likely from the 15 to 25C range along the trough, a decent shear profile also looks to be in place for scattered places in southern manitoba. All combined severe weather looks likely for all of southern manitoba including Winnipeg, Brandon, though especially for the southwest. The threat will exist for large hail, damaging winds, heavy downpours, intense lightning and possibly tornadoes in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that form will likely experience upscale growth into what models are possibly hinting at an MCS for the Red River Valley and EastMB come evening. Watches and warnings may be issued tomorrow by Environment Canada, stay tuned for updates.

As for the day on Wednesday things will quiet down, with the possibilty of some more scattered showers and storms on the way for Wednesday in Eastern Manitoba as the low moves on through, severe weather may become likely . It will clear the province by late Wednesday. I'll be in Beausejour Wednesday so maybe I'll get some action. As for the rest of the week warmer and drier weather can be expected as a ridge builds but there could be some thunderstorm chances any will be weak and short lived.

Overall things will have to be monitored and kept an eye on, have a look and keep any eye on what models are saying http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en as they may change ideas on the new model runs. Anyways thank you and hopefully you enjoyed the post, I'll try and update things as best as I can through the day but I might be held back by my house chores tomorrow. Though updates will come in the evening likely.

Data was based on the 00Z Tuesday NAM Model Run and partly from A Weather Moment

Showers and Thunderstorms To Finish Off The Week.... Heading Into The Weekend

After what was a great week will now be another unsettled start to the weekend, as another area of low pressure marches across Southern Manitoba with an adjoining warm front going through today and a cold front passing by on Saturday.  The arrival of this low pressure system will bring forward a marginal to likely risk of isolated severe thunderstorms this weekend right through to the start of the week, as is typical of mid June. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the Southwest portion of the province with some decent lightning detected in them, any of the activity there will spread northeastwards (mainly missing Winnipeg and the Red River Valley) creating the potential for heavy rainfall, some damaging winds, small hail and intense lightning. Another batch of showers and storms will form out in the southwest by late afternoon (behind the current activity) and travel to the east as the evening nears, reaching the Red River Valley by the mid evening period or around that time. Storms will travel into the Eastern half of the province getting themselves into a flattened out area of rain around the time they enter central Northwest Ontario. The threats with the storms will be small hail, intense lightning, heavy rains and some moderate winds, however that threat may change if severe storms become likely that would mean a chance of large hail, damaging winds, and possible supercells. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid to high 20's for the day ahead. I will monitor for updates on potential severe weather. For the weekend it looks like instability will be in place on Saturday and Sunday giving way to a chance at more scattered showers and storms with high temperatures in the mid 20's. No severe weather is anticipated, but with it being June anything can happen (there could be a chance). 

Much Nicer weather is forecast for the week with more heat and humidity and temperatures in the mid to high 20's to near 30C. Another severe weather potential arrives mid to late week. Enjoy next week while you can!

Data was in part from and compiled from pretty much all of the weather websites in my links, but mostly from A Weather Moment and JJ Winnipeg Weather..

Thunderstorm Outlook

There will be the potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a cold front travels through the South, not only that there is a risk of some severe cells in the Southwest as the day goes on. The storms that turn severe will be very isolated and only last a short while. Any cloudcover we have today will not inhibit storm development, there are already storms ongoing in NW North Dakota. The storms will travel eastwards through the day reaching the Red River Valley by late afternoon to early evening/mid evening and into the eastern portions by late evening to overnight. So watch for storms later on...

You can find a good writeup on what expect at A Weather Moment...

Stormy Start To The Week With An Amazing End In Store...

Today's Thunderstorm Risk Map

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across parts of Southern Manitoba today, with another batch of showers and storms moving across the parklands at the moment. Any of the activity will weaken as we head into the late evening, however another batch of showers and storms from saskatchewan are forecast to spread into southwest Manitoba and into the inter lakes tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of it may reach the Red River Valley before weakening in the late morning. Rainfall amounts of 15 to 35mm can be expected in those showers and storms, though the bulk of the activity will hit areas just to the west and north of Winnipeg, however there is a slim chance that we might see something. Throughout the morning any showers or storms will dissapate making way for partly cloudy to partly sunny skies though a reemergence of showers and storms are likely as we head into the late afternoon tomorrow especially west of the Red River Valley on into EastMB. Thunderstorms will be likely as we get into the evening with SBCAPES of 500-1000J/Kg Storms may be severe at times, though they will weaken as the sun starts setting. The storms will all depend on the amount of sunshine that we get, the more the better. However if it stays cloudy all day in the south, storms will not form and then we will have a grey gloomy day all day long.

The rest of the week will offer much calmer conditions weatherwise as a ridge of high pressure builds into the province, temperatures will rise into the mid to high to high 20's by midweek with increasing humidity levels and the return 30+ humidex values. A chance for strong to severe storms return by the end of the week into the weekend.
So the summer weather is finally returning! Sorry for those who hate heat..

Overall a stormy but wonderful week on the way, enjoy!

Today's thunderstorm risk, also a new post on the way tomorrow morning...

 Discussion is coming soon...

Stormy Week On The Way

After what was a quiet weekend in Southern Manitoba with cloudy and cool conditions, we now can expect a return to more unsettled weather. A southwesterly flow will start taking shape over the northern plains with a ridge of high pressure building out in Eastern Canada. As a result the mean stormtrack will establish itself over the southern prairie provinces this week, bringing multiple areas of low pressure with periodic chances at showers and/or thunderstorms. The first wave of showers and possibly thunderstorms can be expected late Monday into early Tuesday (with locally heavy rainfall), as an impulse spreads moisture from the Dakotas. Much drier weather is anticipated through the Middle of the week before we see the arrival of another low pressure system that will bring a more significant chance at rainfall and possibly some strong to severe thunderstorms through the Thursday-Saturday time period.  Those looking for sustained warmth you will likely have very little luck this week! The wet weather looks like it could trek onwards until the 8th of June based on the CFSV2 outlooks, then again this is not unusual for this time of year. On average June is usually the wettest month, as increasingly warmer and humid air creeps north of the border mixing with frontal systems crossing the prairies. Severe weather will become much more likely as we get into mid June.

My Amateur Summer Outlook for 2013

Summer 2013 is on the way and many people are already wondering how the season will turn out after our long winter, glad you asked! 

Before we get to that, we have to deal with the month of June first. It is usually around this time that severe weather starts to arrive as building heat from the United states starts clashing with cool air along frontal systems. Also, don't forget the fact that we can also start seeing heat coming in waves from the states. For example, last year we had gotten quite hot and humid already through the time period of June. Through this June we can expect to see pretty much the same, but a more variable weather pattern is expected as the main storm track situates itself over our region giving us a fair amount of different types of weather. There will be likely periods of warmer than normal temperatures, cooler than normal temperatures and most likely a number of days in a row where we see active weather rolling through as systems march there way across the region. With warmer weather in June we can always anticipate an increase in severe weather as we get into summer.

Temperature Outlook

Summer 2013 will be a fairly nice one for those of you who love heading to the beach, cottage, or camping. Temperatures will not be on the side of below normal so it won't be cold at all, which is great after our long winter. We won't be terribly hot either, we will actually be experiencing a little bit of both; we will be in the near normal zone which means will be dealing with some periods of warmer than usual weather mixed in with colder than normal weather, just like the month of June. We will be experiencing this kind of weather this summer thank's to the abundance of low pressure systems bringing heat and humidity ahead of them and cooler/drier weather behind them. If we have a period where we get upper level ridging and less low pressure systems we might get into a period of sustained warmth but it won't last long, similar to where we had heat in summer of 2012. However, our summer will not be like that at all at this point. Though if you live up in the interlakes expect cooler than normal temperatures to prevail thank's to the ice remnants and cooler than normal waters over North Lake Winnipeg & Manitoba.

Precipitation Outlook

Precipitation through the summer period will be above normal with more severe thunderstorms than normal (like the month of June) especially through areas of southern Manitoba. An abundant amount of low pressure systems will allow building heat & humidity from the USA to clash with the cooler air up North. Picture it as oil and water they don't mix well. This in turn will result in the likelihood of severe weather outbreaks quite frequently, bringing the threat forward for all types of severe weather including tornadoes. The most known types of severe weather include squall lines, bow echoes, derechos, MCS, MCC's, supercells and don't forget tornadoes. Localized flooding could also be a possibility during and after severe thunderstorm events. The most likely period for this active weather will be through the month's of June and July, with the month of August also a possibility. Overall the active summer weather will be sure to bring all of those well known storm chasers into the province, and keep those who chase on a regular basis quite busy! Don't forget all of the weather enthusiasts out there who have been waiting a long time for this to take place. If anyone asks about our Summer ahead, tell them we'll have a variable temperature pattern and wet weather with a bunch of opportunities here and there to take in the sun. 

The pattern for summer could change that it is why I will be watching carefully and updating as needed. In the meantime this is how it look's. (Summer Outlook Information was provided by Brett Anderson of Accuweather, Graphics and expanded thought's were my own)

Possible Rainy End To The Weekend

3km HRRR Radar Image (6am Sunday)

After a rainy start to the weekend will be seeing much of the same for the rest of the weekend only if an area of high pressure doesn't interfere with the push of this low pressure system we are currently experiencing. Throughout the rest of the night tonight expect any rain to clear out with the possibility of more showers & thunderstorms entering southern parts of the province overnight into tomorrow morning. The question is how far North will this rain move? Current indications are that the area of high pressure will keep the rains out of the province, and only let it slide a little north of the border likely affecting areas along a line from Sprague to Pilot Mound mainly south of the TransCanada. Leaving sunny skies for our day tomorrow in the rest of the South Though if that area of high pressure weakens we could be left dealing with a potentially rainy and stormy Sunday because the low itself is much stronger. I have seen a lot forecasts online that quote rains and storms for the day Sunday, we'll have to find out I guess. As we go into Sunday night things will either be clear or we could be dealing with rainshowers as the area of low pressure or high pressure sits near the region. Monday is when we could be seeing more rainfall and or thunderstorms or just plain sunny skies, but if we do get rainfall on Monday things will likely clear out in the evening.

Then we are into much sunnier condition's before another potential of showers and storms comes at the end of the week given latest model runs. So there you have it there is a lot of uncertainity in the latest model runs so I will update in the comments section if needed. Follow the HRRR for latest data and radar simulation's.


In the Long Range an enhanced risk for above normal temperatures and precipitation returns for the region, means that there there will be a higher chance for severe weather/thunderstorms in the coming weeks. That might get me posting more often, we'll see how it turns out!

Arctic Air Set To Invade Southern Manitoba

After a taste of summer like weather over the past couple days, we will now be invaded by stubborn arctic air that doesn't seem to want to stay away. It won't last long though as it looks like we will only be experiencing the brunt of it through the day Saturday. Today looks like it will be very pleasant as temperatures rise into the low to mid teens once again with most likely hitting or surpassing the 15C mark. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of another system for the day tomorrow temperatures will cool to at or just below zero for the night ahead. Tomorrow an area of rain & embedded rumbles of thunder will travel from the parkland's through the interlakes to the southeast during the day, reaching southern parts of the province by mid afternoon, maybe giving us a shot at some well needed rainfall. Once is said and done we could be looking at 5 to 10mm of rainfall as high temperatures rise into the mid teens. A cool down will be on the way Saturday, the coldest of the weekend (high single digits to low double digits) before a moderating trend into week as high's rebound into the high teens, to mid 20's.

Cold Temperatures To Start Off The Week, Then A Little Warmer!

After a cold and snowy weekend we will be stuck with below normal temperatures once again, but some hope is on the horizon for the end of the week. (5 Day Forecast below)

Last night was exceptionally cold with most places recieving overnight lows in the minus teens and in fact a few spots reached overnight lows close to -20C including Winnipeg where temperatures tied the old record set back in 1997 at -20.1C (coincidence much?), the latest cold temperature to occur in the season.

Despite our cold spell at the start of the week, we will now only have one more day of temperatures in the minuses and that is today as we switch into a somewhat milder but below sesonal temperature pattern for the rest of the week. This warmup will be thank's to a switch to a zonal flow aloft which is a good sign for this time of year, as a result expect temperatures to warm into the low plus single digits allowing for a more consistent melt, once we get rid of all of the snow temperatures will be able to rise past 10C and allow for more seasonable spring temperatures. However that is a long way's off and I am still unable to find out how warm it will get at the end of this week, I will post a few comment's on how warm it will get at the end of this week in the comment's section.

As for precipitation not much is in the forecast for the week but a system is set to affect Southern Manitoba bringing a possible wintry mix on the weekend. Detail's will be posted on Friday! Have a good week...

Updated! Here We Are Again! Another Significant Storm To Affect Southern Manitoba Today Through Monday

After a long period of calm and tranquil weather, we will now be experiencing another winter storm that will be testing the patience of all Manitoban's. Our winter storm will be thank's to an area of low pressure that will be moving through Montana into Minnesota Today through Monday, bringing another wave of snow through Southern Manitoba. Snow has already spread into Southwestern Manitoba as of this morning and is expected to spread eastwards as the day goes on, reaching the Red River Valley this afternoon through evening and regions of Eastern Manitoba tonight. 

 Snow is expected to intensify tonight with snowfall amounts of 10+cm likely in the Winnipeg region by Monday Morning, with 15 to 30cm possible through the regions of Southwest Manitoba and the interlake regions where snowfall warnings are in place. Numerous watches and warnings are in place for all Southern Manitoba including a snowfall warning and a blizzard warning. As the system moves out strong northerly winds of 60 to 70 km/h will develop on the backside of this system combining with freshly fallen snow and blowing snow will create blizzard conditions for much of the Red River Valley, Monday Morning. Blizzard conditions will be less likely in the rest of Southern Manitoba Monday morning. The storm will make travel quite difficult throughout regions of Southern Manitoba as a result motorists are advised to make alternate plans or travel slowly to get to your destination especially outside of towns and cities on highways.

Consider Consulting the Manitoba Highways Website and also The Weather Network Road Conditions. 

Colder and Drier Weather will develop once the system moves out leaving us with hopefully the last cold blast of the season. Make sure to stay tuned for updates in the comment section.

New Blog Update In The Morning!

A significant storm system is expected to move into the region tomorrow with another potential heavy snowfall in store, weather models are having some difficulty pinpointing exact amounts and placement on the location of heaviest snowfall bands. Details will be better known by the morning hours tomorrow, that is when a post will be provided. My Guess is around 8am. See you then!

Snowstorm To Affect Southern Manitoba Until Tuesday Morning

A look at warnings

A slow moving low pressure system now over southeast Saskatchewan is spreading an extensive area of snow across all of the southern Prairies from the Rockies into Southwest Manitoba. The area of snow will be spreading across the Red River valley this evening and after midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and through Monday with 10 to 15cm possible by Monday morning in Winnipeg and higher amounts South and West of Winnipeg. That would include a possible 15 to 25cm of snow in those areas. Snow will continue Monday across Southern Manitoba before tapering off Monday Night into Tuesday. Snowfall warnings are in effect for much of the Southwest corner of Manitoba east through Steinbach but not including Winnipeg this is where amounts could reach a good 25cm of snow. 

Snowfall Amounts Forecast

For the Winnipeg region snow is expected to move in by midnight and start to intensify overnight. About 2 to 5cm of snow is possible by morning, so give yourself time to drive slowly and carefully during the morning commute. Snow will continue moderate to heavy throughout the day with another 10cm likely by the evening commute, so expect a slow drive home as well. Snow will completely clear out Monday Night through early Tuesday with another 5cm possible when it ends. 10 to 15cm of snow is likely in the Winnipeg region from Midnight through Tuesday Morning, with a potential for higher amounts if we get some stronger bands set up over us. Snowfall warnings could be expanded to include the Interlakes, Winnipeg, Whiteshell and Sprague regions if the storm moves further North than first forecast.

951pm CST Radar View

Track the snow using KTIV Interactive Radar to monitor where the snow is and how heavy it is, other neat features are included on the page as well. Enjoy!

Seasonal Weather Expected To Continue Through The Weekend

Saturday's Forecast Temperatures

After a very warm and seasonable week we will be welcomed with much of the same for our weekend as another batch of pacific air slides into Southern Manitoba, giving us the chance to experience a wonderful start to March.  Thanks to the pacific air temperatures through the weekend will be very seasonable with daytime highs from minus ten to about zero degrees. There will be very little in the way of precipitation with a chance for flurries & light snow in various parts of Southern Manitoba through the day Saturday with amounts of 5cm forecast in the Red River Valley. Nicer weather is forecast for the day on Sunday with sunny skies as the snow moves into North Dakota. 

As for the long range the weather bears watching we might get clipped by an Alberta Clipper on the day Monday, although models are having a difficult time agreeing on the scenario. I will post Sunday Night if needed for a look onto Monday's storm.

Warm Weather Set To Continue

After a wonderfully warm start to the week in Southern Manitoba, we will be given a second chance to take a break from the cold winter weather for the rest of the week. 

A look at temperatures for the evening on Wednesday, by around 6pm CDT.

Temperatures in Southern Manitoba the rest week will be normal to above normal, as high temperatures reach through into the  minus single digits and possibly slightly above zero as warm air invades into the region.

0 to -10C / -10 to -20C

Wednesday will be a nice day with be a fairly nice day, but cloudcover will be a main factor with little in the way of sunshine. Daytime temperatures will rise into the minus single digits to the minus double digits, above zero temperatures could be found in a few places. Overnight lows will be in the mid minus teens to near minus twenty degrees. Much of the sunnier weather will return for Thursday and Friday.

0 to -10C / -10 to -15C

Thursday will be much sunnier than compared to the day on Wednesday with daytime high temperatures staying in the minus single digits once again and very little wind to contend with. Overnight lows will be in the mid minus teens again, with a few places reaching near -20C again.


 

-5 to -10C / -10 to -15C

Friday will take a while to warm up as a northerly wind component stays into the region until mid afternoon, that is when temperatures will start warming and only to around the -5 to -10C mark as they reach their daytime high's not too bad though. The good thing about the day on Friday is that the Sun will help keep things warm even though that it will feel just a little chilly with our overall temperatures. Overnight lows for Friday Night will be expected to approach the minus twenty mark or in the high minus teens. The Only cooldown for the week will take place during the Friday and Saturday Night period. 

 
Weekend and Beyond
The Weekend will start getting closer to the 0C mark in terms of temperatures and overnight lows will start warming as well, cloudcover will be the case for these warmer than normal temperatures. Clearer weather will begin for the start of the week next week, as for the long range it really doesn't look like we will be locking into Spring but more alterations between cool and warm weather. With the much warmer sun being out I can assure you no coldsnap will last that long. CPC Outlooks hint at normal temperatures continuing through the Month of March, with normal precipitation amounts. Let's just hope the spring weather comes around soon and stays. I am not liking this neverending winter, bring on the storm season! 

Overall a wonderfully warm spell of weather to look forward to for the second half of the week, nothing to complain about if we are sitting in the minus single digits!

Long Time No See! New Post On The Way Wednesday

I had an awesome break from having to detail every aspect of our weather, but am happy to be back in business. I will now only post at the start of the week and/or when the weather pattern or setup is forecast to change. It's not worth it when I have to post 3 times a week when nothing is happening, better off saving my time when the weather becomes active. I will likely have a post setup for the day Wednesday so you all can prepare for the second half of the week! Are you wishing for warmer weather? Your wish is coming true.....

Potential Stormy Weekend On The Way

As we have started warming up in Southern Manitoba a threat of potentially stormy conditions returns this weekend as a potential Colorado Low (or Classico) moves into the region.



A Colorado low will move into our region on the day Sunday (based on the NAM 018Z model from Yesterday), the question is will it happen?

The Weather this weekend may very well be an interesting one with a day of calm and beautiful weather followed by a day of stormy and poor conditions. Though I am not certainly sure it will turn out this way as models are having a tough time making an agreement on the outcome. 

The Track on Classico differs by model, the NAM, GEM-REG and GFS want to carry it Northwards into Manitoba, while the GEM-GLB wants to take it further East into Iowa through to Ontario. If Classico goes into Manitoba the chances for blizzard like conditions and heavy snowfall increase, though if it moves off through Iowa and Ontario we may only receive a dusting at best. 

Thus it makes for a difficult choice and complicates the forecast. My pick very well based on past occurrences this winter, I would likely pick Manitoba as most of the systems I tracked this year ended up hitting us. If anything it's always good to bring issues like these to the table, just in case if it ends up occurring.
 
Let's try and break things down for your day today and the weekend ahead

Overcast -5C/-12C

Friday will start off sunny and quite mild for most of Southern Manitoba as a low pressure system over Northern Manitoba draws a southerly flow into it, allowing for a mild airmass to settle into our region. Not only that but clouds will roll in by morning to mid afternoon (West to East) along with the southerly flow aloft, the southerly winds could also give way to local blowing snow in open areas given the gusts to 40km/h. Temperatures will rise anywhere from -4C to -7C in the West to -6C to -11C in the Red River Valley and East. Overnight Lows from -10C to -14C.

Sunny -5C/-13C

Saturday will be a better day and not as gloomy, the sun will be out for the day allowing for our temperatures to warm a little more with the help of the southerly flow that still will be in place. Temperatures will be in wide variation from -7C to -3C in the day and -15C to -11C overnight, some light snow could arrive overnight if the expected system drives North into the region.

Heavy Snow / Blowing Snow

Sunday is challenging, as seen in the past few paragraphs. If the forecasted system heads into the region we could be in for a day of blizzard like or winter storm conditions. Such as heavy snowfall, blowing snow, and poor road conditions. The snow would likely start by morning and increase in intensity as the day goes on, peaking by evening and near midnight, likely easing by the overnight period. This is the likely worst case scenario, if it happens. Temperatures would probably be left in the mid minus single digits through the day and overnight period given not much in the way of changing wind direction. The track of Classico would be through Northwest Minnesota spreading snow into all of Southern Manitoba the worst in The Red River Valley given the scenario above. Watches and or Warnings may be issued by Environment Canada in advance of this storm system. Stay Tuned for Updates on the comments section of the blog!
                                                                     OR

Scattered Flurries

However the day could be completely different if the low moves East into Iowa and Ontario, sunny to partly sunny skies would dominate the region, with a slight chance for flurries in the Southwest, Red River Valley, and Southeast Portions of the province. Temperatures would remain in the minus single digits for daytime highs and minus double digits overnight.

Long Range
At this point the above seasonal temperature trend will likely continue given the current outlooks and model runs, but a second batch of colder arctic air looks likely by the 14th based on ECMWF and AO Outlooks. That means this cold air may not be as cold as the last one, but the good news is that it may very well be the last of the season. Beyond that point, too much uncertainty exists.

Overall a fairly interesting next few days lies ahead, take care and listen for updates!

Warmer Weather But Not Much Warmer

Warmer weather will be common this week in Southern Manitoba, but that's not to say that it will be much warmer. Instead It will feel warmer compared to the arctic air that we have been experiencing lately in our region.


A look at the clipper system that will be moving by Manitoba bringing an area of lift and snow off to the northeast of the system likely affecting regions of Southern Manitoba. (Map is drawn by me)

"We will be under the influence of a semi zonal flow aloft this week" according to Scott from A Weather Moment as a result there will be several small clipper systems that will track east throughout the week and affect most regions in Southern Manitoba. The clippers will bring multiple chances for snow and some possible blowing snow as they move through. So how is the rest of our week shaping up? Let us have a look shall we...

Clouds and Sun
-8C to - 13C
-15 to -21C

For The rest of the day Today cloudy skies will dominate with a few spots of sun peaking through the clouds. Temperatures will be close to seasonal values with daytime highs in the upper single digits, or lower double digits. All of the temperatures will be below zero of course.



Snow & Local Blowing
Snow Amounts of
5cm+
-3C to -9C
-11C to -17C

As for Wednesday another Alberta clipper will be on the way for the duration of the day. Snow will come along with it likely putting our amounts up into the 5 to 10cm range, much higher than that of Monday's system. The Alberta Clipper will not only bring snow it may also bring forward hazardous driving conditions on some highway's as local blowing snow occurs with the wind whipped fresh falling snow. Things will likely clear out completely by midnight for all as the system drives down into South Dakota. Daytime temperatures will be around the mid minus single digits and warmer in places for Southwest Manitoba.


There is going to be something of interest to talk about in the long range. There have been numerous indications and mentions over the past week that we could possibly be heading for a warmer period of weather that could exist through mid-February. The Climate Prediction Centre, NAEFS, ECMWF, and Arctic Oscillation all are in line with the possibility of a much warmer period of weather than last experienced. It will likely take place from early through until mid February, but doesn't tell how warm we may end up getting. With the warmer weather expected the arctic air invasions we have suffered through last month will become less common, but that's not to say that we may go through a few -30C nights before the month is over.

Deep Freeze Gives Way To A Mixed Weekend (New Weather Icons)

Despite our Deepfreeze we experienced this past week we will now slowly be pushed back into more seasonal like weather, as a series of powerful low pressure systems track through Alaska and become responsible for bringing milder air Eastwards into our Province. The Milder air will arrive at the end of this week.

Warmer Temperatures are on The Way for the end of the week as the pacific air slowly moves in.

Partly Cloudy

Tonight Any leftover snow that was experienced today should clear out leaving behind partly cloudy skies and temperatures once again dropping to -21 to -23C in the West, -25 to -27C in the East and -26 to -29C in the Red Red River Valley and Winnipeg. Coldest windchill's will be in the East in Steinbach at -36C, others anywhere from -32 to -35C. There will also be increasing clouds in Southwest Manitoba overnight as another area of clouds move in from Saskatchewan.

Flurries West / Cloud East

Sunday will start off cloudy in the west with scattered flurries developing by mid afternoon allowing for cloudcover to spread into parts of the Red River Valley, all thank's to an area of low pressure that will slide through the region from Saskatchewan. If you aren't up for shovelling then you don't have to, as there will only be about 2cm when all is said and done. Winter this year is gone fairly easy for the most I'd say. Daytime high's across the South should be in the mid minus teens in the afternoon hours (-13C to -19C). The Clouds and snow should be quick to clear as the system moves east into Northwest Ontario by evening.
Overnight lows on Sunday will be back down into the mid minus twenties and colder. (-25C to -30C). 

      The Week Ahead

 
Heading into next week the flow overhead will become significantly more zonal as a West to East flow takes shape over the prairies, this will allow for pacific air to move into our region getting our temperatures back up to normal and slightly above normal by the end of the week. Spring is nearing and I can truely say so. The following images below are from Brett Anderson's Blog on our week's ahead, it is looking very nice for those people who are getting tired of the winter weather.

Deep Freeze Returns

After a short break from the cold as milder pacific air spilled across the prairies, we now will be tossed back into the deep freeze as another ridge of arctic high pressure spills into the region. 

New Map made by me from the new software called Skitch (The deep freeze arrives as an Arctic Ridge Builds in)

Temperatures will begin to nose dive into the cold range as we head into the weekend with high's stuck in the minus 20's to minus 30's, all thank's to our wonderful friend we call arctic high pressure!
 

Tonight will be a fairly nice one compared to our cold en-devour ahead, light snow and local blowing snow taking place with temperatures approaching the -25C mark as high pressure nears the region, though quite cold out in Southwest Manitoba with temperatures near -35C overnight. Things will warm up for the day Thursday with temperatures into the low minus 20's with windchill values in places approaching the -40's. Sunshine will be the main event. 

 The real chill will arrive on Thursday Night as temperatures hit rock bottom and approach the -36C mark in the West and -33C in the East. Factor that in with windchill's the air will feel closer to -42C to -46C in the West and -41C to -44C in the East, that will be likely if the wind speeds surpass 15 to 20 km/h in most places. Add all of that up more Windchill Warnings will likely be issued in the next few days. Environment Canada has already in fact issued a few earlier today for Western Manitoba .See Picture on the left and click on this text.

 Friday will be a recovery day as temperatures rebound closer to -20C instead of it being in the minus 30's with sunny skies again, an alberta clipper will arrive into the area of Southwest Manitoba overnight into Saturday pushing some cloudcover into the region. That will help our temperatures stay away from the -35C mark and away from the -45C windchill's. The cold weather will be short lived as we see warmer temperatures push eastwards for the day Saturday and Sunday, woo hooo!

Warmup on The Way For The Weekend, Though It Won't Stay Long!

After a cold week we will be given a chance to warmup and get a break from the deepfreeze in southern Manitoba.  


Temperatures forecast for Sunday January 27th, 2013 at 5am, much warmer throughout the day with temperatures reaching the -5C mark or cooler.

The warmer temperatures are heralded by the alberta clipper that passed by our region yesterday, chopping up the Northwest flow and created a zonal (west to east flow) which will enter the region the day on sunday. The warm pacific air will be moving across Alberta and Sakatchewan today entering into Manitoba on Sunday, giving a chance for our temperatures to rise into the high minus teens to low single digits (-17 to -6C), compared to the -30C and cooler overnight lows with the windchills colder than -40C during this past week, including the biting cold daytime highs.

Friday will feature biting cold temperatures still as we remain in an arctic airmass with daytime highs in the low minus teens to high minus teens, and mainly clear skies throughout the night and day.

Saturday things will gradually warmup as we get into the pacific airmass with daytime high temperatures approaching the very high minus teens mark (-13C in the East to -8C in the West).
Sunday will be even warmer as we get into the mild pacific airmass with daytime highs in the low minus single digits (-8C in the East to -4C in the West). There also will be a fairly high chance for snow flurries overnight as another shortwave approaches from the West, cloudcover will also be in place if there are no flurries around as a moist mild pacific airmass is in place ahead of the system.

Outlook For Next Week

Forecast Temps at 2m Above Ground
Level by the GFS on
The (Coldest day) Friday.

I hate to say it folk's colder weather and likely for the last time will return next week as arctic air drives south again. Starting off on Monday an area of low pressure will be trekking across the region bringing a possible 5 to 10cm of snow during the morning in the Western Half of Manitoba to Late Afternoon in the Western Red River Valley, and Red River Valley by early evening. It will eventually drift into Eastman by the late evening hours. Cloudcover will remain during the night behind the system as residual moisture. The system will also bump our temperatures up to near -4C in the West and -2C in the East during the day before the snow arrives (warmest day of our warm spell overall by the looks of it). Things will get much colder next week as an arctic airmass dives south again, thank's to the cold air return from the NW by the low pressure system on the day Tuesday. The main coldsnap could arrive on Friday where daytime highs will be in the -25C to -30C range and maybe windchills near -40C on Friday & on the weekend.

In the long long range the Good thing about this expected coldspell is that it won't last long in terms of days.... by the 11th of February things will get much warmer and will be dealing with less snowfall. The cold arctic air will likely be unable to reach further South as the doors close to the arctic air, by the second week of February. Head over to Another Eastern Cold Shot For February by Brett Anderson Accuweather for more indepth ideas.

Another post will be on the way Monday detailing our snowfall forecast, until then enjoy your weekend folk's and when you have a chance enjoy the warm weather, cheers!

A little snow and then a blast of cold arctic air for the weekend and next week!

I'm back in business folks! A good look at our weather is in the schedule for tonight so let's begin....

A lot has happened in our weather over the past 2 weeks including a few good blizzards, and crazy temperature swings. However we will mainly just have a look at what's on the horizon in terms of conditions for South Manitoba, for the next week or so. Guess what? I have some news to bring to you all "cold weather is on the approach, and not in a good way".That is winter I guess, and I don't like being the bear of bad news....

A clipper system will be moving across Southern Manitoba for the night ahead bringing scattered areas of snow into the Red River Valley and most of the province. Snowfall accumulations of 7cm can be expected in most spots by tomorrow morning, as the clipper system moves off into NW Minnesota. Areas of blowing snow will be very likely in Western Manitoba during the overnight time frame mixed in with the falling snow, travel should very well be difficult in those places especially up through the Riding & Duck Mountain's. 

Map mentioning blowing snow through the day tomorrow

One thing that will be noticeably different tomorrow will be the switchover to a northerly wind that will bring in the seasons first and coldest airmass for Manitoba. Northerly winds will result in Temperatures of -20C and colder, creating windchills of -35C to -40C. The winds will allow for blowing snow to develop on all major roads and highways likely resulting in a few travel problems The culprit? A sharp coldfront, that will move through overnight tonight from the North. (As seen as a blue line with spikes on the map, arctic air coming straight south behind it.)


This will be the coldest batch of air that we will receive in recent memory, overnight lows of minus 30C or colder will be very likely in the time frame through next week. Warming temperatures can be expected for the first week in February ie) after next week.