Extreme Cold Weather Sticks Around

 I just want to wish you all a belated merry Christmas and a happy new year, I know I haven’t been on here in about 2 weeks time. I have had a lot of things happen over the holidays, spent time with family and got some really nice gifts. Overall My hope is that I can keep you all updated on weather events throughout the new year. May 2022 bring good things to you all and for the Christian’s out there may God give you a wonderful year. 

(Above: A very cold airmass will sit over the region over the next few days, that area of purple is a polar vortex sitting over the Canadian prairies).

As for our weather over the next few days into the new year and our weekend ahead, it’ll definitely feel like winter. A arctic area of high pressure has begun to settle into our area, it’s also a part of a polar vortex broken off that is moving through the prairies. This will lead to some of the coldest temperatures we have seen in a long time. Read more and Find out how cold it will get and find out how long this will last for. 

Friday Night: Clear skies and a arctic airmass sitting over the region will aid in temperatures dropping well into the low minus 30’s for a majority of the region,  from -30 to -34C with the coldest lows happening in the red river valley and sections of southwestern Manitoba closer to -35C. Much of the windchill values will exceed -40C, with values from the low to high minus 40C range. The coldest of the values will be sitting right over top of southwestern Manitoba where low windchills could get as cold as -47C. Keep in mind the low temperatures will be reached shortly before sunrise around 8am. 

Saturday: Will end up being super cold in the morning hours, as previously mentioned. A small system will move through central portions of Manitoba during the afternoon bringing a chance for some flurries by Dauphin regions, and along with this some light cloudcover. Temperatures will soar into the low to mid minus 20’s for all regions (-20 to -26C) with some places a degree or 2 colder if your in southwestern Manitoba. Windchill values will exceed minus 30C with a majority of the region seeing windchills in the low to high minus 30’s (-31C to -38C). The coldest of the values being felt in the parklands towards southwestern Manitoba, over the Manitoba lakes and portage la Prairie regions.

Saturday Night: An area of high pressure will move east southeast in the northern states the good news is that it will start ushering in a slightly warmer airmass, temperatures will not be as extreme as they were on Friday night. However , we’re still going to see some fairly low temperatures in the low minus 30Cs (-30 to -34C), windchill values will only drop into the low to mid minus 30’s in the southwest and the southeast. Areas in the red river valley can expect to see low windchill values in the -36 to -40C range. 

Sunday and Sunday Night: Some good news is that a warm front will approach the region as a clipper system of the sorts forms over the Rockies and drifts eastwards, ahead of this warm weather will start moving into the area. Cloudier skies are likely, with the chance of some flurries mainly in the afternoon . Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the low minus single digits in the southwest and western half of Manitoba (-10 to -14C). Areas further east like the white shell and the red river valley will see highs rising into the mid to high minus teens (-15 to -18C). Windchill will still be a factor where the high minus teens and low 20’s (-15 to -22C) is a possibility for the western half of Manitoba and eastern Manitoba seeing mid to high minus 20s (-22 to -28C). Cloudier skies are likely on Sunday night, Overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will warm well into the mid to high minus teens (-14 to -18C), with some areas out towards Dauphin seeing lows a few degrees below minus 10C. Unfortunately if your looking for spring warmth you won’t find it, windchills will still drop below -20C (-20 to -25C) in the southeastern half of Manitoba, the red river valley into some patches of southwestern Manitoba and the interlakes. Areas elsewhere will only see moderate windchills in the mid minus teens to the high minus teens (-14 to -19C). 

The beginning of the week: The forecast gets a bit tricky, southern sections of Manitoba and the province itself will be affected by another area of low pressure the question is how much of an impact it’ll have on our area. Current model guidance is only suggesting a brief batch of snowfall with max of 5cm. Temperatures will remain quite mild with highs on Monday in the lower minus teens (-10 to -15C). Windchills still sitting in the upper minus teens (-15 to -20C). A much colder batch of arctic air will filter in on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid to low minus teens and lows in the high minus teens, windchills of minus 20 to -35C are also possible. It will not be as severe as it was on the weekend. 

Happy New Year!!!

Cold winter weather, makes a return.

 Much of Southern sections of Manitoba has been experiencing, a unseasonably warm last couple of weeks. A low pressure system will continue moving through our region causing a shift in the temperature pattern, and It’ll likely cause a return to below normal temperatures as arctic high pressure builds in. (Below: A snapshot of what temperatures are expected for the day on Thursday, plummeting well into the minus teens). 

Wednesday Night:A area of low pressure will be off to our south and as it moves east snow will follow on the backside of this low pressure system. 

Unfortunately before that happens there will be a risk of freezing drizzle during the first half of the evening before , snow and blowing snow will take over for the southeastern half of Manitoba regions. The blowing snow will cause very poor visibilities especially in open areas, highway travel isn’t advised. Freezing drizzle accumulations will only end up being a trace. Snowfall should start easing late overnight, early morning. Snowfall should only total 2-4cm, as well there is freezing drizzle advisories  in effect at the moment for the southeastern half of Manitoba read them here.    Heading into the overnight behind this system very cold arctic air will begin filtering into the region, snow and blowing snow coupled with a northwesterly flow will allow temperatures to drop well into the mid minus teens, to high minus teens (-15 to -19C) windchills will drop well into the mid to high minus 20’s (-25 to -30C). 

Thursday: Will end up starting off with snow and blowing snow in the southeast before clearing in the late afternoon hours. It’ll end being one of the coldest days of the week, temperatures will only warm up into the low to mid minus teens (-10 to -15C). Some cloud will filter in during the afternoon. Overall windchills may end up being in the minus 20’s again in the afternoon. Thursday night, will end up being cold again, temperatures will drop well into the mid to high minus teens (-15 to -20C). Windchills anywhere from (-25C to -32C) overnight but will moderate by Friday morning as cloud starts filtering into the area. 

Friday: An approaching low pressure system will move into the region, bringing cloudy skies with snow likely coming in during the early to late afternoon hours with a clipper bringing 5 to 10cm. Blowing snow is also possible. Temperatures will moderate a bit during the day being in the low to mid minus teens vs the mid to high minus teens of earlier week. So I would expect highs to be anywhere from -13C to -16C in the west to -10 to -14C in the southeast with windchills in the high minus teens and low minus 20s. Friday night: The snow and blowing snow will taper off during the early evening hours into the early overnight. Cloudy skies are likely , that’ll help keep temperatures steady in the low to mid minus teens in the southeast (-11 to -16C), areas in the southwest unfortunately will see lows from (-15 to -21C) and corresponding windchills in the low minus 20’s to the low minus 30’s, on the colder side in the southwest.

The weekend: Will end up being much colder , a arctic high will filter in behind the low pressure system and temperatures will only warm into the high minus teens and low minus 20’s. Overnight lows on Saturday will sit over the low to mid minus 20’s with windchill exceeding -30C. Calm weather is expected Sunday with highs in the mid minus teens, even near -10C along the USA/Canada border. Then as we head into the overnight lows will approach the mid to high minus teens. Colder weather is possible on Monday, however that’s a ways out still. 

Warm Weather makes a comeback.

 Much of southern Manitoba will be getting a return to warmer weather, all thanks to a warm front moving into southern sections of Manitoba today. There will be a longer period of warmer weather, thanks to a westerly flow with slight ridging occurring. Find out how long this will last for and how warm it will get. 

(Above):Warm day ahead for Thursday, temperatures getting close to zero degrees for the day. Temperature unit is in Fahrenheit. 

Wednesday: Much of southern sections of the province will deal with cloudy skies during the day , a band of snow will move into the region this late afternoon with a warm front as it moves in. It’ll end up bringing light snowfall with periods of blowing snow. Accumulations will vary between 2-7cm. Temperatures will warm up around the high minus single digits (-5 to -10C) for areas along and south of the Trans Canada highway , areas further north will still have to contend with daytime high temperatures in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Wednesday night: Snow should end this evening , then Cloudy skies should dominate the pattern , with a chance of flurries in the south central and southeastern sections. Temperatures will take a boost thanks to a southerly flow establishing itself as a high pressure system moves eastwards, and we end up on the backside of it. Temperatures will warm (Weather joke here: Temperatures they won’t be taking a energy drink , although it will sure feel like it 🤣🤣🤣) up well into the mid to low minus single digits overnight (-7C to -3C). 

Thursday and Friday: Much of southern sections of Manitoba can look forward to warm weather, temperatures on Thursday will soar well into the mid to high single digits (-1 to -6C). Sunny skies are also likely as well which will help it feel a little warmer. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop into the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Friday will be much of the same where high temperatures will rise into the mid to high minus single digits (-5 to -10C) for the day. Heading into Friday night much of the region will unfortunately see lows dipping quite a bit, as a high pressure system sits over the western mountains in the states, giving us a cool northwesterly flow. Temperatures will drop into the low minus teens to the high minus teens. (-10 to -19C). Only the warmer temperatures in the low minus teens will be in the southeast, everywhere else will see the chills of winter. I’m sure the windchills will end up in the minus 20’s overnight. 

Weekend Details: Sunny skies are expected through the weekend, another low pressure system will swing through on Saturday and Saturday night. We won’t be expecting any impacts from this system as it moves in. Temperatures will once again hit the high minus single digits to the low minus teens on Saturday (-7 to -12C). Saturday night temperatures will rise into the mid to low minus single digits (-2 to -5C) as the warm front moves in. Temperatures will really end up being on the upswing, Sunday when high temperatures will rise into the low to mid plus side of the single digits (1 to 5C). I was looking over some of the record temperatures and record high temperatures look attainable on Sunday if it gets anywhere over 1C. However because of the sun angle not a lot of melting will take place. This is bizarre for December to say the least. I am seeing the possibility of frigid overnight lows in the low minus teens to high minus teens on Sunday night about -13 to -16C. You can thank this to a cold front swinging through in the evening on Sunday, it might end up bringing a chance for flurries but we’ll know more on the Friday update .

-Mike McGregor 

Blizzard conditions Sunday give way to extreme cold weather 🥶

 This blog will be shorter than other blogs I have done but will still have some detailed information. 

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a low pressure system over the next 24-48 hours, this system will likely end up bringing southern Manitoba about 5-10cm especially with areas along the border, with the possibility of lesser amounts as you go northwards where 2-4cm is likely. The majority of the snow is expected in the morning to early afternoon hours, flurries are also possible into the evening hours. During the late morning a blizzard will develop south of Winnipeg where snow and blowing snow is expected, where winds will be between 30 to 50km/h. Gusts up to 70km/h or more are likely, this will persist shortly after midnight. 

For the areas north of the winkler and Emerson region, the winds won’t be quite as strong in the rest of southern Manitoba during the afternoon. In the evening much of the regions will see gusts up to 70km/h. Behind it a arctic airmass will filter in,, unfortunately a cold arctic air mass will filter in behind this system. Flurries will taper off shortly after midnight. I’m looking at temperatures falling well into the minus 20’s, overnight into Monday. Windchills will fall anywhere from -29 to -38C. 

Heading into the work week Monday-Wednesday: 

Temperatures will remain well below there seasonal averages, with partly cloudy skies and some sun mixed in. We will likely end up seeing some of the coldest weather of the season yet. Temperatures for daytime highs will remain in the low minus 20’s and mid minus teens, with overnight lows well below -20C. A more informative update will arrive on Wednesday.

Stay Warm! 

-Mike McGregor

Unseasonable warmth arrives, unsettled weather to follow

 Much of southern Manitoba has been seeing normal temperatures and bouts of freezing rain especially in the red river valley. This trend has fortunately come to an end, there appears to be a brief warmup on the way for the region with some unsettled weather expected. Unfortunately we will be missing out on the near 20C temperatures expected south of the border in North Dakota and Montana, unusual to say the least for them. 

(Above) Wednesday will end up being the warmest of the week, temperatures as warm as 6 to 8C will be likely across the south. Maybe even over 10-20C south of the border). 

Wednesday: A warm front with a attendant low pressure system will be approaching the region with a chance that by the late morning and afternoon hours a batch of snow, freezing rain, and rain will all accompany the warm front. Snowfall accumulations are only expected to be between 1 to 5cm. This weather is expected to reach eastern Manitoba and Ontario by early to mid afternoon. Cloudy skies are likely for the afternoon hours with a small chance of showers in the afternoon hours. Temperatures will warm above zero for a good portion of the region, highs will end up sitting in the low to mid single digits (1 to 8C) for the afternoon. Wednesday Night: Heading into Wednesday night a arctic cold front will swing south along with it, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies can be expected. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits, the warmest of the lows can be expected in the southwest but colder as you move north and east into the interlakes and the rest of southern Manitoba (-1 to -5C). 

Thursday: A warm front will be approaching much of southern Manitoba and ahead of it some cloudy skies are likely, a high pressure system will start sinking south into the region we’ll be on the west side of it. Theres a small chance for flurries during the day as well. Temperatures during the day will soar into the mid to high minus single digits (-1 to -7C) with temperatures not getting any colder than -7C. Thursday night: A low pressure system is expected to travel through northern and central Manitoba, snow is expected there with the potential to drop as far south as Gimli. Areas along the border have a small chance of getting a brief flurry or shower as a stationary front moves into areas of south central Manitoba. Clearing skies are likely on Thursday evening with clear skies on Thursday night. Temperatures will stay warm overnight with lows only sitting in the mid to high minus single digits (-4 to -9C). 

Friday: The low pressure system that I mentioned on Thursday night will move into Ontario by Friday afternoon, with a cold front draped over northern Manitoba. A high pressure system will sit off to our south in North Dakota.  A slight chance of flurries can be expected as a northerly flow develops. The best chance for flurries appears to be off of the Manitoba lakes. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected in the south central and southeast regions. Sunny skies are expected elsewhere. Temperatures in the lower minus single digits can be expected (-1 to -5C). Friday night: Increasing clouds are likely ahead of a developing low pressure system in the northwestern united states. Temperatures will drop to the upper minus single digits (-5 to -10C). Areas in the interlakes will see lows in the low teens (-10 to -14C). 

The weekend: Much of the same can be expected with the exception being a possibility of snowfall on Saturday night into Sunday, too early to determine snowfall amounts for this system quite yet. Temperatures will fluctuate highs on Saturday will end up being in the upper minus single digits on Saturday (-5 to -10C), overnight lows much the same the exception being in the escarpment and dauphin regions where they may drop into the low minus teens below -10C to as cold as -15C. Sunday will be difficult,, temperatures might drop quite a bit after reaching there daytime highs in the early afternoon around the mid to high minus single digits before dropping into the low minus teens. Overnight temperatures will be significantly colder and it’ll be the end to the warmth we’ve been seeing with lows possibly into the low minus teens to near minus twenty Celcius. We will keep you updated if the models continue to signal snowfall and the cold temperatures. 

Next blog post comes in on Saturday. Have a good rest of your week. 😊😊😊. 

-Mike McGregor

Slight warmup On The Way

 Much of southern Manitoba will be expecting milder weather to arrive , for the second half of the week that will be more reminiscent of typical november weather. You can thank an arctic high pressure system sinking south through Saskatchewan for bringing in the colder airmass. Find out how cold it will get and how long it will last for . 

(Above) Warmer temperatures are expected for the day on Thursday, this trend looks to continue for us over the next few days into the weekend possibly. 😊😊🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻. 

Wednesday: Will end up starting out cloudy as a cold front swings through early in the morning, a small band of snow and slight blowing snow is possible as it moves out by the afternoon hours. There is a possibility for some lake effect snow showers to develop by the afternoon off of lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Partly cloudy skies are possible in the red river valley, southwestern Manitoba, and interlakes.. Temperatures will only reach the mid to high minus single digits across the southeastern half of Manitoba (-5 to -9C), areas in the southwestern half into the interlakes regions will only see daytime highs in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Heading into Wednesday night clear skies are likely as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area, the unfortunate part of this is that overnight lows will plummet well into the mid to high minus teens (-10 to -18C) across the south. 

Thursday: During the day Thursday we will end up being on the backside of the high pressure system (clockwise flow), so we will probably start seeing milder temperatures. Sunny skies are expected in the southeast, interlakes and the Red river valley, the exception being the southwest where mostly cloudy skies are likely there.  Temperatures will rise into the low minus single digits in the southwest (-3 to -6C) and into the upper minus single digits in the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba (-6 to -10C). It’s a good thing because we don’t need the colder weather quite yet. Thursday night will be a bit different, a warm front will be approaching the area ahead of it will have increasing cloudcover. Thursday night temperatures will be doing a bit of a flip flop (no not actual flip flops, we’re in the middle of winter 🤣🤣🤣). Instead of temperatures cooling overnight they will be warming up from sitting at (-7C to -10C) to warming up into the mid to high minus single digits (-4C to -7C), by morning. Some locations will drop a degree or 2 overnight, but will warm up regardless. 

Friday: Much of southern sections of the province can expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon. A low pressure system will be sitting south of the border out ahead of it an area of rain mixed with snow , possibly mixed with freezing rain will develop in western Manitoba . This area of mixed precipitation  will move east through the afternoon and may arrive by the evening in the red river valley. I’m only expecting a 2-4cm only. Temperatures during the afternoon will soar into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -7C). Friday Night: A area of precipitation will move through the red river valley, with the risk of freezing rain and snow mixing in . That should clear out by the evening hours, cloudy skies are expected overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits overnight (-1 to -7C). 

Mild but unsettled week ahead with wintery mix of rain and snow

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba, received a significant winter storm over the second half of the week and the weekend. Snowfall totals fell in staggering amounts across the south. With upwards of 50cm that fell in the parklands region lesser amounts as you go towards areas south of the Manitoba lakes. Looking ahead at our week a westerly flow aloft will bring in increasing amounts of moisture,with a low pressure system in our area. We are already seeing a band of freezing rain impacting southwestern Manitoba from this system, I expect more mixed precipitation to occur in the area. There also will be more moderate temperatures as a result of the southerly flow with it. Find out how long the mild weather will last for and what we can expect weather wise in the coming days.

A photo of the forecast precipitation for the freezing rain expected this evening into the overnight hours. 

Monday Night:  Generally cloudy skies are expected as a warm front moves through the area, this forecast is a bit interesting as there will be a band of freezing rain in southwestern Manitoba moving east into areas just west  the red river valley by morning. Ahead of this band of freezing rain will be snow in the south central and eastern portions of southwestern Manitoba. The main concern with this system is that freezing rain will be ongoing throughout a majority of the evening to after midnight, in western portions of Manitoba likely reaching portage la prairie and points east after midnight. The band of freezing rain will likely weaken as it arrives in the southeast part of Manitoba. Regardless roads across the south will get very icy so travel is not recommended if your in rural areas and remember to adjust to the conditions present. As the warm front moves through temperatures will surprisingly stay near to zero degrees overnight in the Red River Valley and the interlakes (-1 to -2C). Areas in the southwest staying a degree or 2 above zero (0 to 3C)  and areas in the southeast staying slightly below zero (-1 to -4C). 

Tuesday: The forecasting is quite complicated, patchy freezing rain will be ongoing in the inter lakes, red river valley and eastern Manitoba in the morning hours. Southeastern Manitoba may end up only seeing cloudy skies. Temperatures will warm up enough near noon to allow for rain to fall in the south central and eastern areas before a transition over to light snow and snow occurs in eastern sections in the late afternoon before it enters Ontario in the late afternoon . The warm sector should nudge up far enough north in western Manitoba to allow for the sun to peak out in the afternoon. Temperatures for the day will sit in the low single digits for a majority of the forecast area (1 to 6C), areas in eastern sections might only get up closer to 1 or 2C. 

Tuesday Night: An area of low pressure will move east into eastern Manitoba, behind it the northwesterly flow will allow for a large swath of snow to develop and gradually move east southeast. This will likely envelop western Manitoba, the interlakes and southern Manitoba. There will be a risk for blowing snow as this system impacts the area. We will only be receiving about 5-10cm with this snowfall as it appears to be a clipper sort of system. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with the lakes remaining warmer than 0C because of the lake water not being frozen over yet.  

Wednesday: A trough of low pressure will move east, southeast behind it a continuing northwesterly flow will bring light to moderate snowfall in the morning hours.  Off and on periods of snow is expected through the afternoon with varying degrees of intensity but not as heavy as the morning hours. Lake effect streamers are also a possibility as the cold air will be coming off the warm lakes. The same setup happens to people in Ontario during the winter seasons, we’ll never get near as much as they do however. Temperatures will only manage to warm up into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -5C) with areas in the western half of Manitoba on the colder side of temperatures. 

Wednesday Night: A majority of the region can expect cloudy skies, with the exception being southwestern Manitoba where clearing skies is possible by the overnight hours. Some lake effect flurries are possible overnight in the central and eastern southern sections. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits in the southeast and south central parts of Manitoba. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see lows in the high minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with some areas dropping down to near -10C, some areas may see lows in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C) in the escarpment of Riding Mountain and by Swan River.  

 Second half of the week: Much of the southern sections of our region can expect temperatures in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs. Overnight lows will sit in the mid to high minus single digits. There may be a chance for some flurries or showers on Friday before another area of low pressure moves in for the weekend. 

Significant Winter storm, signals end to warm weather.

Much of southern sections of Manitoba can expect a end to warm and sunny weather unfortunately, a strong and potent low pressure system is expected to bring a blast of wintery weather as it invaded all regions of the forecast area for the second half of the week. Read on to find out how much snow we will get and how long it will last for. (Note the forecasts for Manitoba locations in this blog are from environment Canada). 

Wednesday: Expect cloudy skies as our sneaky low pressure system comes into the region, rain will develop in the morning and persist through the early afternoon in the southeast. Rain showers will begin to mix with snow in the southwest part of Manitoba, the exception being the escarpment where snow will begin by the morning hours. The snow will start developing  in east as the day goes on. Not only that but roads and highways will begin to deteriorate. Most of the snow will melt on contact during the day before some of the snow starts to stick after the surfaces have cooled. Temperatures will remain above zero in the low single digits. Highs near the 0 to 5C mark will be across the south with the exception of the Manitoba escarpment where highs will only reach the low minus single digits (-1 to -2C). Winnipeg: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning then changing to rain in the morning. Rainfall amount 5 to 10 mm. Wind east 30 km/h. High plus 3. Brandon: Snow mixed with rain. Risk of freezing rain early in the morning. Local snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. High plus 2. Dauphin: Cloudy. Snow at times heavy beginning in the morning. Amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. High plus 1. Wind chill minus 7 in the morning.

Wednesday Night: Is when things start to really intensify, the low will begin to move east along with it a large area of snow will sit over our region with the most intense snowfall rates occurring over the interlakes, western Manitoba and sections of the eastern part of the province. Winds will be howling out of the north to northwest gusting to 70km/h at times. Widespread accumulations of 10cm are expected by morning with some areas in the southwest only seeing 2-4cm, but as mentioned in through western Manitoba and the escarpment east to the interlakes and the Manitoba/Ontario border seeing as much as 15-20cm by the morning. Overnight lows will drop into the low minus single digits in the southwest (-1 to -4C). Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and the Manitoba lakes will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 3C). 

Winnipeg:  Snow. Snow mixed with rain early in the evening. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind east 20 km/h. Temperature steady near zero. Brandon: Snow. Local amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 8 overnight. Dauphin: Snow at times heavy. Amount 10 cm except 20 cm over higher terrain. Wind east 20 km/h becoming north 20 overnight. Low minus 4. Wind chill near minus 10.

Thursday: Will end up being the last day of significant snowfall, the low pressure system will begin to move into Ontario behind it cool arctic air will begin to filter in which will ultimately create a cold aspect to this storm system. Expect snow to persist throughout the day, with amounts in the range of as much as 15 to 25cm upwards of 30-50cm is also possible in higher terrain mainly in western Manitoba and interlake regions. What remains to be seen is how much snow melts on contact. So storm totals will vary. Temperatures for the afternoon will unfortunately drop to below zero with most regions seeing highs in the low  minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Winnipeg: Snow High zero. Snowfall amounts 5-10cm. Brandon: Snow. Snowfall amounts 2-4cm High minus 1. Dauphin: Snow. Snowfall amounts 10 to 15cm. High minus 1. 

Thursday Night: This storm system will move east into the Great Lakes as some of the snow will start to taper off in the in the southwest with some periods of snow  in all western parts of Manitoba. Heavy snow and blowing snow will continue to impact the southeastern half of the province up into the interlakes. In general expect another 5-10cm Behind this winds will start to increase and cold air will filter in behind it. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -6C) with windchill values in the low minus teens (-10 to -15C). Winnipeg: Snow. Local blowing snow. Windy. Low minus 4. Brandon: Snow. Windy. Low minus 6. Periods of snow. Low minus 5.

Friday: The low pressure system that impacted the region should start pulling out far enough away that we can start seeing some clearing, cloudy skies should be in place for the day with some residual flurries. High temperatures wont budge too much, unfortunately. Highs will only end up reaching the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) for daytime temperatures. Winnipeg: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of flurries. Windy. High minus 1. Brandon: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. High minus 3. Dauphin: Cloudy. High minus 2.

  

Friday Night: Another low pressure system out in Saskatchewan will move into the region, late overnight into the morning hours in southwestern Manitoba bringing a brief but heavy blast of snow as it moves into those regions as for the rest of the south cloudy skies can be expected as the system moves into the province. Temperatures are expected to drop well into the low to mid minus single digits (-4 to -8C) with areas in the interlake regions dropping into the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). Winnipeg: Cloudy periods. Low minus 7. Brandon: Cloudy. Low minus 7. Dauphin: Cloudy. Low minus 6.

The Weekend: Looks like a brief clipper system will move through our area as it moves into the eastern half of Manitoba on Saturday. Calmer and sunnier weather is possible on Sunday. Daytime highs look like they might be in the low to mid minus single digits with overnight lows in the mid to upper minus single digits and low to mid minus teens. 

Stay tuned in the comments section the next few days for updates on the winter storm as it unfolds. 

-Mike McGregor

Exceptionally Warm Weekend on the Way

 Good evening everyone, looks like it could possibly end up being an exceptionally warm weekend for much of southern Manitoba and the forecast areas. My forecast for Friday ended up turning out on the warmer side of things with highs around 8-12C across the south. As for the pattern An upper ridge of high pressure will be setting up over the northern plains with a strong southwesterly flow in place. There is a possibility that this weather could end up breaking records. Find out how long it will last and how hot it will get . 

Saturday: Will end up being a day with partly cloudy skies and a small chance for showers. Winds will end up being out of the south to southwest, ahead of an area of low pressure off in the NW United States. Temperatures will soar and possibly into record values, the chance exists for highs in the low to mid teens (10 to 15C). If your over by the Manitoba lakes, highs may struggle to reach 10C as the lake water has cooled a fair bit since the summer. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon, High 14C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, High 13C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, high 12C. 

Saturday Night: A weak occluded front off of a low pressure system will move through the region on Saturday Night, bringing in heavier cloud and chance of showers. Though light rain should be expected, a majority of the showers should be in eastern sections of Manitoba by the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 5C).  overnight with areas just along the MB/SK border dropping below 0C to about -2C.

Sunday: A trough of low pressure will be moving into the western half of Manitoba by the afternoon into the evening. Ahead of it mostly cloudy skies can be expected in the morning hours with clearing and sunnier skies by the afternoon in the south central and southeastern half of the region. The exception being the western half of Manitoba seeing cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will soar once again into the low to mid teens in much of the region (10 to 15C), the only exception will be the interlakes where highs will only reach the high single digits (8 to 10C). Winnipeg: Cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 11C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 10C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy then becoming a mix of sun and cloud High 10C. 

Sunday Night: A cold front will be moving through the southern half of Manitoba overnight into Monday. behind this cooler air will filter in gradually. Unfortunately this will likely end the warm weather streak we have had. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid minus single digits (0 to -4C) to overnight into the morning. With areas in extreme southeastern Manitoba escaping the cold only seeing lows in the low single digits (0 to 4C). Winnipeg: Clearing, low 0C. Brandon: Clear. Low -3C. Dauphin: Clear low -1C. 

Sneak peak at The Week ahead: It appears a area of high pressure will move its way eastwards along with it some seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper single digits (5 to 10C) and lows in the lower single digits (2 to 5C) to the low minus single digits (-4C to 0C). There also is a chance for a storm system to impact the region on Tuesday/Wednesday with a chance at rain or snow. We will keep you updated on that as new model data comes in. 

Cold weather continues

 Much of southern Manitoba continues to sit in a trough of low pressure, the good news is that this pattern looks to shift in the next few days to slightly warmer weather.

 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the colder days of the week, high pressure will drift off to our east in the high plains and the Midwest of the USA by the morning hours moving into Ontario by afternoon. It will still make an impact on our weather and will allow for a southerly flow to take place. Sunny skies should be in place for much of the region during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C), with the warmest weather expected in the western half of Manitoba.  Winnipeg: Partly cloudy in the morning then Sunny, high 6C. Brandon: Sunny high 7C. Dauphin: Sunny High 8C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are forecast for a large part of our region , there’s a chance for some cloudy skies to develop by morning in the red river valley region. Overnight low temperatures will drop well into the mid to high minus single digits (-3 to -8C). Unfortunately it’ll end up being a cold Thursday morning. Winnipeg: Clear, becoming cloudy by morning low -5C. Brandon: Clear low -5C. Dauphin: Clear, low -2C. 

Thursday: The sun will be shining on Thursday for a good portion of southern Manitoba, temperatures are likely to soar into the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) for the region with the possibility of some areas in southwestern Manitoba getting up to 10C. Winnipeg: Sunny high 6C. Brandon: Sunny, high 8C. Dauphin: Sunny high 9C. 

Thursday Night: Will end up being one of the warmer nights of the week, increasing cloudcover is likely ahead of a warm front approaching the region. Temperatures for a majority of the region will stay above zero in the low single digits ( 0 to 3C),  the exception being areas of the interlakes, western Manitoba along highway 1 up to portage la prairie and just west of Lake Manitoba, as well as eastern Manitoba. Areas in those regions will drop into the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). The odd exception being the red River valley and Winnipeg where temperatures will drop to a degree or 2 below zero (-1 to -3C) then warm up above zero (0 to 2C)  after midnight with cloud rolling in. Winnipeg: Clear, then increasing clouds temperature -2C rising to 2C by morning. Brandon: Clear then increasing clouds before morning, low -2C. Dauphin, clear then increasing clouds before morning. Low 2C. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies are expected during the day as a low pressure system moves through the region, there will be a chance for showers in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Any showers that form won’t last long and should move out of the region by the evening hours. Unfortunately because of model data differing it could either end up being in the low to mid teens for most or the mid to high single digits. For now I’m going with the Current NAM model guidance, it  shows areas in the southwest will have a chance at getting close to 10C. High temperatures will soar into the high single digits in the southwest (5 to 10C). Highs in the southeast and the interlakes and the west central part of Manitoba will only rise into the low to mid single digits, (2 to 5C). Regardless wear a jacket if you all can. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon . High 5C. Brandon: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the afternoon High 9C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers. High 9C. 

Friday Night: Cloudy skies should linger as an area of low pressure gradually exits the region, some residual showers should be hanging around in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba. Some clearing can be expected in extreme southwestern Manitoba, through the overnight period. Temperatures won’t dip much and will likely only drop into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C), southwestern Manitoba will be on the colder side of things where lows may drop closer to 0C. Winnipeg: Cloudy, 60% chance of showers in the evening low 6C. Brandon: 30% chance of showers in the early evening then cloudy. Low 3C. Dauphin: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the early evening. Low 6C.

The weekend: A slight ridge will build into the region and it will allow for temperatures to soar into the high single digits and low to mid teens on Saturday and Sunday, calm weather is also likely . Overnight lows will end up being the same with lows in the low to high single digits. 

Have a good rest of your week! Another blog will be written on Friday late morning. 

Unsettled weather makes a return.

 Much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing average temperatures and calm weather over the past week and a half, that trend looks to continue. The only thing is that we can expect some slightly unsettled weather and possibly a tad colder weather. Read on to Find out what we can expect weather wise and how cold things will get. 

(Above: Rain is expected for the day on Wednesday into Thursday. Amounts will vary, it won’t be a wash out but in general I’m only expecting 5-10mm maybe even 15mm in sections of the white shell)

Wednesday: Will end up being a cool and cloudy to start off, an approaching area of low pressure and trough off in southwestern Manitoba in the morning will move into the red river valley and eastern sections of the province by afternoon. Ahead of it a southerly flow will bring in showers for the afternoon and some of them may end up being heavier in some regions of the southeast. On average amounts are expected to be between 5-10mm, with 15mm possible in some localities. Temperatures will only rise into the mid to high single digits (5 to 10C). The exception being southwestern Manitoba , where the sun might be able to come out with those places seeing highs in the high single digits to the low teens (10 to 15C). 

Wednesday Night: Showers are expected to continue for the evening hours in the red river valley and the southeast, with the exception of the southwestern half of Manitoba seeing clear skies. Cloudy skies are expected to stick around in the east overnight into the morning hours. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid single digits overnight (2 to 5C), some places may even get as cold as the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C) especially just west of lake Manitoba.

Thursday: A northwesterly flow will take over and as a result cloudy skies are expected in the southeastern half of Manitoba during the day, the good news is that this will clear by the late afternoon hours. Sunny skies are expected in western Manitoba including the pembina valley just west of the red river valley. Temperatures will suffer however and won’t rise much in areas with heavier cloud, high single digits and low to mid teens are likely in the southwest part of Manitoba (8 to 14C). Areas in the southeast, interlakes and eastern sections can only expect to see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C). Dress Warm!! 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are likely for a majority of southern Manitoba, the exception being southeastern sections where fog is possible. It’s hard to tell on the cloud cover forecast model. Regardless, I’m expecting temperatures to drop into the low to mid minus single digits overnight. (-1 to -4C) The exception will be areas of parts of the parklands, and the Manitoba lakes where lows will stay above freezing in the low single digits (1 to 4C).

Friday: The forecast gets a bit more tricky on Friday an area of low pressure will be moving into the region not only bringing increasing clouds on the north side of it with a chance of showers for some sections, but also helping boost temperatures for parts of the south. Larger areas of showers will develop in the second half of the day towards the late afternoon in the interlakes and western and eastern central Manitoba. Temperatures on the day Friday will soar into the low to mid teens with areas as far north as Dauphin seeing those temperatures as Far East as Winnipeg and just east of the Red River Valley. The exception being the interlakes and parts of eastern Manitoba where highs will only reach the high single digits (7 to 9C). 

A peak at Friday Night and the weekend: Rainy conditions are expected with a majority of that happening on Friday night, on the backside of that system on the weekend cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely. Maybe even a chance for flurries on Sunday. Temperatures will once again sit in the low to mid single digits for daytime highs and overnight lows a couple degrees below or above zero during the overnight. Sunday will of course be the coldest of the weekend. We’ll talk about the snow more on Friday’s blog more in detail though. 

Warm Weather comes to an end

I just got back from a bike ride and I really enjoyed the  summer like weather we’re getting for the second time this fall. As you know much of southern Manitoba has been experiencing warmer than average temperatures with the average daytime highs getting 10-15 degrees above average, that pattern looks to break down however. A cold front will be cutting across Manitoba tonight into Tuesday. The unfortunate part of this is that our second summer will disappear. Better get out your pumpkin spice coffee or tea, and your warm blankets. Maybe might even need to turn on your furnace. Ugh the dreaded slow but deadly return to winter, I guess we don’t have to worry about Michael Meyers running around.  If you dare to read about Frosty the snowman . Find out how cold it will get and how long it will last for read on. 

Monday Night: An advancing cold front will move through the region over night into Tuesday, with it increasing cloud cover will fill into the area. A small chance of showers may come along with it as well. As for temperatures, we’re looking at temperatures dropping into the low to mid single digits (2 to 7C). The coldest of the temperatures look to be mainly in the extreme western half of Manitoba, the warmer side of temperatures look to be in parts of the southwest into the eastern half of Manitoba and the interlakes. 

Tuesday: A arctic high pressure system will begin moving into the province, bringing in temperatures cooler than what we have been used to. Add on that cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday. Much of the region will see highs in the mid to high single digits (5 to 7C). It appears our daytimehigh numbers are pulling a April fools joke. 

Tuesday Night: A northerly flow will aid in clearing cloud cover mainly in southeast Manitoba, however western Manitoba cloudy skies are likely once again. The northerly flow will allow temperatures to drop drastically especially in the southeastern half and western portions, where lows will drop in the low minus single digits (-1 to -3C). Areas in the western half of Manitoba might even see lows of -5C. Areas from just west of Winnipeg into the interlakes regions and parts of western Manitoba will see lows in the low single digits (1 to 2C). 

Wednesday: An adjacent area of high pressure will be sitting over the northern prairies, a northwesterly flow will be in place during the day. Cloudy skies are likely in the early afternoon, before sunny skies expected to filter in. Unfortunately a mix of sun and some cloud cover will prevent any significant warming occurring in the southwest.  Sunny skies are still expected in the southeast. Temperatures for the day are likely to end up being in the mid single digits (5 to 8C), talk about a cold fall day. 

Wednesday Night: Clear skies are expected however a batch of cloud cover will develop in the southwestern half of Manitoba overnight into the early morning with cloudy skies filling in for the rest of the region. Temperatures will vary from being a couple degrees above zero in the pembina valley, and just south and southwest of Lake Manitoba (1 to 3C) Areas in the red river valley, interlakes and western Manitoba will see lows in the low to mid minus single digits (-3 to -6C). Areas in the assessippi regions may even see lows down to -9C. 

Second half of the week: Much of the region will continue to see temperatures in the low, mid and high single digits for daytime highs. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are also expected under the presence of high pressure. No significant rainfall or snowfall is on the horizon. 

October Heat Continues, Unsettled Weather to Follow?

 Much of our region has been experiencing an unusually warm start to October, temperatures on Tuesday soared to 32C in Brandon. The hottest October temperature ever recorded, since records began in 1941. According to Justin Oertel “the previous record happened on October 5th, 2011 the High was +30.9C and October 1st, 1992 the High was +30.9C” This trend looks to continue only for a few days, as a persistent ridge of high pressure sits over our area, a trough of low pressure will move into the region by Thursday and that will begin our transition to more seasonal temperatures. Find out what this means for the weather ahead and find out what that transition will look like. 

Wednesday: During the day a large area of low pressure will sit off to our west ahead of it a southerly flow will contribute to sunny skies with some clouds in the southwestern half of Manitoba and warm temperatures for the day, again another day to get out and enjoy what’s left of summer. Temperatures for the afternoon will soar into the mid to high twenties for the area, with a chance at seeing some areas approaching or surpassing 30C (25 to 31C). Winnipeg: Sunny High 28C. Brandon: Sunny: High 27C. 

Wednesday Night: A stationary front will be sitting over central Manitoba by the overnight hours. The southerly flow will continue and not much in the way of cloudcover or precipitation is expected, temperatures will drop only into the low to mid teens, with the cooler weather expected in the western half of Manitoba. (12-14C western Manitoba), (14 to 16C eastern Manitoba). Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear low 12C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Thursday: Some cloudy skies are likely in the morning hours ahead of a cold front for a large section of south central and southeastern Manitoba, heading into the afternoon sunny skies should begin to take over.  A cold front will begin crossing into western Manitoba come the afternoon hours, this front will begin allowing northwesterly winds to move into only the western half of Manitoba. Get outside because this will end up being the last day for any summer like warmth. Temperatures for the day will soar into the low 20’s (21-24C) in the southwest with temperatures in the southeastern half seeing highs in the mid to high 20’s (25-28C). Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 26C. Brandon: Partly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. High 22C. Dauphin: Cloudy in the morning, becoming sunny with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 21C. 

This is a snapshot of what could be thunderstorms and showers moving into the south central region of Manitoba on Thursday night. We’ll be keeping you informed on this. 

Thursday Night: During Thursday evening, a cold front will be sitting over the south central areas of Manitoba from mainly just south of lake Manitoba and points east. This front will move east southeast throughout the overnight, along and ahead of this front partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with heavier cloud expected in the southwest mainly behind the cold front. Increasing amounts of instability will be moving into the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba during the overnight period. Generally 800-1,000 J/KG of CAPE can be expected, with only 100-300m2s2 for shear which means if there’s storms they won’t be organized and may only be scattered to isolated in nature. I’m expecting showers and thunderstorms to be a potential overnight from Portage La Prairie south to the American border north into the interlakes east to the MB/ON border, and south and west looping back through Winkler and Pilot Mound. The bulk of the activity occurring west of and in the Red River Valley. No severe weather is expected however, some storms could become strong however. Thunderstorms should clear by the early morning hours to near sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens in the southeast (12 to 15C) , with areas of the western half of Manitoba dropping anywhere between the mid single digits and low teens (6 to 14C).  Winnipeg: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Low 15C. Brandon: Clear, increasing cloud in the evening then mainly cloudy with 30% chance of showers overnight. Dauphin: Mostly cloudy, clearing before morning. Low 6C.  

Friday: Will end up being one of the more unsettled days of the week, during the morning hours a batch of precipitation will be moving through the southeastern portion of Manitoba as the cold front moves into Ontario. Behind it a secondary low pressure system in North Dakota will start shifting north and a warm front attached to the cold front may end up moving north into our region. If not it will end up missing southern Manitoba but there still is a likelihood of us expecting precipitation. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies, before another area of precipitation moves into the area during the late afternoon in southern sections of Manitoba, model data is all over the place in regards to precipitation placement and amounts. The GDPS shows a batch moving up from the dakotas in the afternoon through the evening in the southwest to the Red River Valley, while the NAM is showing nothing on Friday until late Friday evening into the overnight. Looking over the fronts and the fact that there is a marginal risk of severe storms south of the border I cannot discount a chance some or most of the showers and storms may cross over into Manitoba. Regardless expect partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and towards suppertime for the Red River Valley and southeastern sections, with a smaller chance of showers and thunderstorms occurring towards the latter half of the day in the southwest. Temperatures will soar only into the mid to high teens across the board with areas struggling to reach 20C. (15-18C)  Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon high 18C. Brandon: Partly cloudy then cloudy, 30% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 18C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the afternoon high 15C. 

Friday Night: That low pressure system I mentioned about on Friday will be sitting stationary over North Dakota overnight, with it a large area of showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected in the eastern red river valley through eastern portions of Manitoba in the early evening before clearing. The unfortunate news however is that behind this system cooler weather will filter in with it being a cooler night than expected for most. Clearer skies in the southwest will contribute to cooler than average temperatures overnight, with lows in the mid to high single digits (5 to 9C) and areas in the southeast seeing more in the way of heavier cloudcover so lows will only drop into the low teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Cloudy with 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Low 12C. Brandon: Cloudy in the evening then clearing low 8C. Dauphin: Partly Cloudy, low 7C. 

The weekend: Much of Southern Manitoba will likely be seeing cloudy skies with some sun mixed in, another low pressure system looks to start moving into the area on Saturday with a chance at substantial rainfall in the Red River Valley, east/southeastern Manitoba and parts of the Pembina Valley with another chance at thunderstorms. Calmer weather is likely on Sunday as the low moves into Ontario. Daytime highs will sit in the low to mid teens, and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with Saturday nights lows being a tad warmer in the southeast around 10-15C than on Sunday Night. 

Heat in a Hand Basket returns with Thunderstorms?! 🧐

A warm and unseasonably above normal air mass will arrive this week, boosting our temperatures up to potentially record breaking values on Tuesday through Wednesday. There will also be another system rolling in on Wednesday-Friday bringing out some unsettled weather. Find out what that means for us. 

Tuesday: Will end up being one of the first hottest days of the week, sunny skies and a southerly flow all ahead of an area of low pressure will boost our temperatures well into the high twenties and the low thirties for a large portion of the south (27-34C). The exception will be the interlakes regions, you may only get up to 25C. It’s possible a few areas may see high temperatures above thirty degrees, that’s looking possible in the Dauphin-Assesippi regions as well as extreme southwestern Manitoba and areas along

the American border. There’s a chance that records could get broken as well, with a lot of areas seeing high temperatures forecast higher than there previous record Information From @ecccweatherMB on twitter: https://t.co/1pcYXqDTfm Winnipeg: Sunny high 29C. Brandon: Sunny High 33C. Dauphin: Sunny high 31C. 

Tuesday Night: Mild air will continue to sit over our area, by morning a warm front should be draped over the eastern half of Manitoba with a cold front sitting over western Manitoba at the SK/MB border. Clear skies are likely over a large section of the province with the exception of the southwest where some scattered clouds are possible overnight. Temperatures will sit around the mid to high teens (14 to 18C), unusually mild for lows as we normally see lows this time of year below 10C or slightly above. Winnipeg: Clear, low 17C. Brandon: Clear, low 16C. Dauphin: Clear, low 15C. 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the last days of the heat, a cold front will advance into the southern sections of Manitoba during the late afternoon hours. Ahead of it increasing amounts of cloud cover are possible, also increasing amounts of instability are possible during the afternoon and evening mainly in the middle levels of the atmosphere. Anywhere from 800-1,200J/Kg of CAPE (Storm Energy) is possible. There will be a risk for thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon hours into the early evening period before sunset. The best risk area appears to be in the red river valley into eastern sections of the province. Storms will have a slight chance of becoming severe, if not I’m only expecting they will remain below severe limits on the strong side. The American border just east of Pilot mound through the Winnipeg area north into the interlakes and east to the Manitoba border all the way south to Sandilands , are at risk for storms on Wednesday. There will be a chance for showers in the southwestern half of Manitoba, however it won’t be a washout . Temperatures for the day will soar into the mid to high twenties again; the exception being that the southeast will see the hottest weather where some locations can expect highs to soar into the low thirties. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon, risk of strong thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 32C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers. High 21C. Dauphin: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers. High 22C. 

Wednesday Night: It looks as though a cold front will be moving through the eastern sections of Manitoba.  The good news is that this will drop our temperatures the unfortunate part of this , is that it will also bring in unsettled weather. There may be some strong thunderstorms before sunset, however they will weaken as the sun sets. As the front slowly moves through a large batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms might move through overnight into Thursday if it does so there may be enough rainfall to lessen the drought stricken areas of Manitoba. However consensus shows only 5-15mm max. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens overnight. Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms ⛈. Low 15C. Brandon: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers, early in the evening.  🌧 Low 14C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers in the evening. Then cloudy.  Low 10C. 

Warmer weather arrives for Weekend.

 Well, I just finished celebrating my 26th birthday party. I had a lot of fun and got some nice gifts. As well I haven’t been on here in a while. My plan is to get back to more regular updates. As for this update I’ll be keeping it simple with basic details. Less of the big words . 

Fall weather has been working it’s way into southern sections of Manitoba over the past few weeks, unfortunately summer looks to make a comeback, with some heat and the possibility of breaking record temperatures. Find out how long that will last and how hot it’ll get.. Read on for more.

Much of this weekend should be pleasant, during the morning on Saturday a batch of showers will move through the southeastern half of Manitoba during the morning with partly cloudy conditions expected for the day. An area of low pressure is expected to approach Manitoba, during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, in much of southern sections on Saturday, the warmest weather will happen in southwestern Manitoba, the parklands into the Red River valley. Highs will end up in the (25-27C) range. Areas in southeastern Manitoba and the interlakes will be in the high teens (17 to 20C) and however will struggle to reach 20C. Heading into Saturday Night it should end up being calm, clear skies are expected in the southeast with some scattered showers and heavier cloud expected . Temperatures will drop into the mid to high single digits (7 to 9C) overnight into Sunday. The Manitoba lakes may end up being a bit warmer closer to 10-15C). Sunday an area of low pressure will move into North Dakota by the afternoon, the warmer weather will end up staying stateside. Beautiful sunny skies are likely during the day. However I’m still expecting our forecast temperatures to still rise into the low to mid 20’s (20-25C). The odd place may see temperatures lower than 20C, especially in the southeast. As well the Manitoba lakes will end up being cooler, more like the mid teens. Sunday night, will end up being more average for overnight lows. Areas in the southeast will sit in the mid teens (10 to 14C), elsewhere overnight lows will end up sitting in the low teens or high single digits (8 to 12C). 

Early Next Week: An area of high pressure off to our east and an approaching warm front will aid in warmer and milder air to drive into the region. In other words unseasonably warm air will arrive, Dog days of summer me thinks. Also the heat will intensify and likely soar into the mid to high twenties, with the possibility of a few areas seeing 30C Monday-Wednesday. There will end up being the possibility, of some showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday to Thursday. Until then enjoy the warmth!

Have a good weekend!!

-Mike

Beautiful, above seasonal weather continues

Much of southern Manitoba is seeing above seasonal temperatures thanks to a large area of low pressure bringing in a southerly to southwesterly flow, along with it, it’ll bring calm weather will make for a fairly nice weekend. Unfortunately some unsettled weather is possible, read on to find out where and when and what to expect. 

Good chance at seeing highs in the high 20’s and near or slightly above 30C on Sunday in the white circled area. There is a chance elsewhere but it’s less evident or probable as it’s only the RRV/SE on the NAM model I’m using. 

Saturday: Sunny skies are expected for Saturday, temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s (24-27C) the warmer temperatures will be in the parklands,with more moderate temperatures in the rest of the region. Saturday night:  there may be some more cloud on Saturday night as the warm front passes through. A few showers are possible in southern Manitoba overnight , a few rumbles of thunder are also possible but because of capping no organized storms are expected. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, (14-17C) closer to our normal day time highs, oddly. 

Sunday: Will be one of the warmest days we will probably see this season, and probably not again until next year. A cold front will likely cross through the red river valley and the eastern half of Manitoba by afternoon, despite this we will still have calm weather conditions with a majority of the unstable weather occurring in NW Ontario. There is a solid chance at seeing our daytime high temperatures soar into the mid to high 20’s with some areas seeing 30C (25-31C). The best areas for seeing the 30C mark include the Red River valley, Winnipeg and eastern Manitoba. Winnipeg definitely has a chance at seeing 30C on Sunday. 

Sunday Night: An approaching trough of low pressure will sink south ahead of it it’ll allow for a batch of heavier cloud cover with showers and some rumbles of thunder to move into our area, mainly from North Dakota late overnight into the morning period. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens (12 to 15C). 

First half of the week: Showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur for the first half of the day and last into the early evening. Severe weather is not expected however. Much cooler weather is anticipated as a northwesterly flow takes over, temperatures will change and drop well into the low to mid teens for daytime highs (11 to 15C). The coldest air appears to sit in the western half of Manitoba where a northwesterly flow will be present. Milder weather is likely for Tuesday with calmer weather conditions expected thanks to a building area of high pressure, even warmer weather possible on Wednesday as the high pressure moves off into Ontario bringing a southerly flow back to our area. I’m seeing a chance at us seeing the 20-25C range again . 

Seasonal week ahead, increasing threat for storms midweek?!

 Much of our region has experienced seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures over the past few days, this trend looks to continue as a persistent zonal flow sits over the region. A trough will sit over our region which will inhibit our temperatures from rising into the 20’s. 

Monday Night: An area of showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to rumble through the southeastern half of Manitoba , with some spotty thunderstorms in the southwestern half of Manitoba by Melita east into the Killarney regions. The cold front looks to exit the province overnight, there is a chance of a stray shower or 2 before it leaves our region. Clearing skies are expected for the evening into the overnight period. Temperatures will drop well into the high single digits, (8 to 10C) in areas of southwestern Manitoba and low teens (11 to 14C) in the southeastern Manitoba region. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy 30% chance of showers early this evening. Then clearing. Low 10C. Brandon: Clearing, low 6C. Dauphin: Clear. Low 9C. 

Tuesday: Will end up being one of the nicest days to come this week, sunny skies thanks to high pressure in the northern plains will contribute to this. There’s a good chance at seeing the 20-25C mark for a large section of the south, the only exception is the interlakes north of Teulon where highs will be in the high teens (17-20C). Manitoba lakes might manage to reach the 20C mark or slightly warmer. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 23C. Brandon: Sunny, high 22C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 21C. 

Tuesday Night: Clear skies are likely as a high pressure system to our south keeps the weather stable, alongside with a southerly flow if we were in the middle of the summer we would be talking about lows in the teens or 20’s. However because we are approaching fall even with a southerly flow in place our temperatures will not sit in the teens overnight instead they’ll be much cooler than what we are used to. Lows into the mid to high single digits are likely (6 to 10C), with the exception of the Manitoba lakes and eastern Manitoba seeing lows a degree or 2 above 10C. Winnipeg: Clear, increasing clouds before morning. Low 9C. Brandon: Clear, increasing clouds before morning. Low 6C. Dauphin: Clear, increasing clouds by morning. Low 11C. 

Wednesday: A low pressure system will be coming into Manitoba with the warm front hovering over the red river valley area by late afternoon and this will be a difficult forecast, a lot of uncertainty with the timing and impact of precipitation expected. However, it appears possibly that cloudy skies with a chance for showers will come through in the morning. However the NAM appears to be the outlier on this, the RDPS and the GDPS show a chance for mostly cloudy skies to patches of sun in areas of the south. Regardless, there will be a chance for showers in the morning. Then partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon, increasing amounts of instability will be present 1000J/Kg or Joules per kilogram (amount of energy per kilogram in the atmosphere) Moisture won’t be lacking either with the dewpoints, sitting at 13C increasing to 15-16C by early evening. Also there will be adequate shear, with around 40-50knots of bulk shear, enough to support storm Organization. Once the warm front and attendant cold front come through in the evening an increasing risk for thunderstorms may occur if enough daytime heating can occur. The risk for thunderstorms will be in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba during the late afternoon. We should know more about the severity of storms possible by Tuesday evening. My best weatherman’s guess is the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts over 90km/h because of the shear present as well as torrential rainfall. There also is a chance the best dynamics could move into Ontario. We will keep you updated. Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the morning and near noon. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. 60% chance of showers with the risk of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 25C. Brandon: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. High 26C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 60% chance of showers in the morning. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 26C. 

Wednesday Night: Showers and or thunderstorms will likely occur in the early evening in the red river valley into Ontario, will probably exit the province by evening. Forecast may change if the timing of the system changes. Temperatures will of course drop into the low teens (10 to 15C) for areas of southeastern Manitoba, the parklands and the Manitoba lakes. Areas in the red river valley, southwestern Manitoba, and the interlakes will once again drop into the mid to high single digits (6 to 10C). Winnipeg: 60% chance of showers in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms, some may be severe. Clearing in the evening. Low 10C. Brandon: Partly cloudy 30% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of a thunderstorm. Clearing in the evening. Dauphin: Partly cloudy low 13C.

Second half of the week: Sunny skies are likely on Thursday and Friday , with increasing cloud possible on Friday night. I’m also seeing a large swath of precipitation develop on Friday night into Saturday on the GDPS, the NAM hasn’t caught on to it yet. There may be a possibility that we could see a batch of thunderstorms on Friday night ahead of a warm front. Other than that our day time highs will vary from sitting in the high teens and low 20’s, (16 to 22C) with our overnight lows in the high single digits and the low teens. 

Mild second half of week ahead, chances for showers and thunderstorms

 Much of southern Manitoba has been finally able to experience cooler and more seasonal temperatures, as of late this summer has been unbearably hot and dry. As we continue the second half of the week, a zonal flow will be in place allowing for a chance for temperatures to remain seasonal, there is a chance for a low pressure system to impact our area Thursday into Friday. Find out how warm it will get, and details on the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

Wednesday: Beautiful weather is expected for the day , high pressure will move into southern Saskatchewan during the afternoon ahead of it a northwesterly wind can be expected with mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures for the day will soar into the high teens to low 20’s, (15-22C) there may be some areas that cool closer to (15-17) over the Manitoba lakes. Winnipeg: Partly Sunny, some clouds. high 22C. Brandon: Partly Sunny, some clouds high 23C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 22C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear then increasing clouds are likely by the overnight hours, a chance for showers are possible into the early morning hours in the interlakes and southeastern Manitoba. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits to the low teens in southern Manitoba (9 to 12C). Areas further north in the interlakes will see lows in the low to mid teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, then 30% chance of showers. Low 10C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, low 9C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, low 11C. 

Thursday: We will end up on the backside of an area of high pressure, this will allow a southerly to southwesterly flow to take place. This may help boost our temperatures a bit, sunny skies are expected during the day with a mixture of clouds and sun expected in some areas. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high twenties for a majority of the region, (24 to 28C) some areas may get close to the 30C mark in southwestern Manitoba. No significant weather is forecast however. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 25C. Brandon: Sunny, high 26C. Dauphin: Sunny. High 27C. 

Thursday Night: Clear conditions are expected with some cloud cover. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens, with the cooler side of the temperatures occuring in the southwest. Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear, low 10C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Friday: A strong southerly flow will be in place, ahead of a cold front. Sunny skies are expected for the first half of the day before increasing clouds arrive by afternoon, with a sun and cloud mix. There will be increasing amounts of instability and a chance for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Most of the thunderstorms that form will be non severe, there is a small possibility that some of them may turn severe. However that chance is low. The best risk for thunderstorms is in the parklands region south through the interlakes , parts of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Temperatures will soar into the high 20’s, with near or a few degrees above 30C temperatures possible in sections along and south of the trans Canada highway (25 to 32C). The best areas for seeing over 30C extend from Winnipeg south to the American border in the pembina valley and the red river valley, and another area in the extreme southwest. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 30C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon with the risk of thunderstorms. High 29C. Dauphin: Sunny then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon, with the risk of thunderstorms. High 26C. 

Friday Night: There will be a continued chance for showers and the risk for thunderstorms, in the evening mainly non severe expected. Clearing skies will come into the region late in the evening and after midnight from west to east. Temperatures will drop drastically overnight with lows in the high single digits in the parklands and interlakes regions (7 to 10C), areas along and south of the transcanada highway north through Winnipeg and just north of stonewall east into eastern Manitoba may see lows in the low teens (10 to 14C). The exception being the Manitoba lakes where low temperatures will sit in the mid teens (15 to 17C), due to the warm lake water advecting or helping the air stay relatively warm. Take for instance Victoria Beach will drop to 15C, whereas areas around there will see colder weather. Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy , with 60% chance of showers through the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing near midnight. Low 13C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy, 60% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing in the evening.  Low 9C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing in the evening. Low 8C. 

The weekend: Our low pressure system will be moving into Ontario behind it an approaching area of high pressure will build into our area, however there will be a good chance at cloudy skies, there will be a chance for showers during Saturday afternoon and some on Saturday evening. Cloudy but calmer weather is expected on Sunday. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high teens on Saturday and Sunday with lows in the low teens and high single digits Saturday night and Sunday night. More details on the weekend on Friday.