Warm Christmas and Fog with snow and freezing rain possible. Happy Early Merry Christmas!!!!!

 Much of southern Manitoba has been in a persistent period of warmer than average weather, the last 3 days much of our region has been enveloped in fog, and freezing drizzle. There also has been persistent southerly flow which has increased the development of low level moisture over the cold snowpack. 

Freezing Rain and snow expected during the morning hours, the highest risk is likely in areas of southeastern Manitoba for freezing rain. Snow is possible elsewhere. All the details below.

Tonight: there will be a batch of freezing rain and drizzle over southern sections of Manitoba, areas from the Pembina valley east into the red river valley. Temperatures overnight will be in the low minus single digits in the southwest and right around freezing in the southeast part of Manitoba. There will be a sharp temperature contrast by morning.

Sunday: A batch of Precipitation will move into southern Manitoba as part of a developing storm system In Nebraska, a area of freezing rain will move into areas just southeast of Winnipeg, if not the city itself. A risk of freezing rain will occur for areas of the red river valley during the morning before snow moves into the rest of the region by late morning, early afternoon. A general 3-5cm can be expected across the region by the evening hours. Areas east of Brandon and Carberry to winnipeg have the highest chances for picking up more than 2cm. High temperatures will drop below zero into the low minus single digits for the day on Sunday. 

Sunday Night: A clearer and calmer airmass will move into our region, temperatures will likely drop into the low minus teens in the southwest and areas of the southeast will see lows in high minus single digits around minus 3 to minus 7C. Windchills will drop into the minus teens.

The Week Ahead: A strong storm system will likely impact the northern plains as far south as Nebraska and into southern North Dakota. There will be a need to watch this system as it develops, but most models hint at it moving into the Superior region by Tuesday. If this system misses us, a majority of the weather here will remain calm temperatures in southwest Manitoba will be on the cooler side during the week with highs in the mid minus single digits and  lows in the minus mid teens,  areas in the southeast will see highs in the mid to high minus single digits, around zero and overnight lows in the mid to high minus single digits.

Another Winter Storm Set to Impact Southern Manitoba, Winter arriving late 😆😆😆

 Southern Manitoba has another winter storm expected to hit the region over the next 24 to 48 hours, temperatures ahead of it happened very mild with majority of the region already seeing high temperature values in the upper single digits and some locations around 10 degrees Celsius again this Thursday afternoon. Rain has already started to impact parts of Western Manitoba with the warm front trailing ahead of the main low pressure centre at 992MB. Latest model guidance has backed off on heavy snowfall amounts in some parts of southern Manitoba with a majority of heavy snow setting up in the Northern Interlakes to central and Northern Parklands regions into parts of southwestern Manitoba. Find out where when and what you can expect for the worst of the weather. 

(Above total snowfall amounts forecast for southern Manitoba , and full view into the north.) Snowstorm is expected for the region heading into the night Thursday and the day on Friday. 

(Thursday Night:) Heavy swath of snow will be setting up on the northwest side of the low pressure system, this will allow snowfall accumulations to grow. The area I circled is where the heaviest of it will fall, so please be careful if you are driving in these areas.)

Thursday and Thursday night: As I write this at 2:40 PM a widespread area of rain is sitting over northern lakes and the central part of Manitoba on the very fringe of the radar as far as S West as the dolphin and riding Mountain National Park regions. Temperatures this afternoon will likely continue rising with areas of the South still experiencing highs more typical of late October early November, highs between 5 degrees Celsius and 10 degrees celsius are still expected this afternoon. Early this evening rain will transition over to snow, for the interlakes in the Grahamdale, and Ashern and Swan River regions, there is a risk of freezing rain for southwestern parts of Manitoba including the Brandon and Portage La Prairie area depending on where it sets up the parklands could also be at risk for that over lake Manitoba. Rain will also occur in some of those sections before midnight. Latest model guidance is suggesting with the HRRR model run that any precipitation that falls after midnight will transition over to snow for areas points west from Carberry and Ashern and Grahamdale regions. A general snowfall outlook for the Southwest: one to five centimeters from Brandon, Neepawa into Alonsa, areas from Swan River, Dauphin the parklands N to the Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipegosis rgions amounts of 10 to 20 centimeters is likely in a localized narrow swath with the SE remaining dry during the overnight. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop for the southcentral and southeast parts from zero to minus 2 degrees celcius. For a section of the Interlake into South Central and East central parts of province we'll see overnight lows from zero to about one degrees Celsius Areas of Western Manitoba into the parklands north to Swan River will see overnight lows from zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius. Into Friday morning There will be a risk of freezing rain just west of Winnipeg to the Portage La Prairie Regions during the overnight. Before tapering off by the morning.

Snowfall is expected for much of the region on Friday evening with tight isobars strong winds are likely on the backside of the low pressure system. Wind Gusts up to 60km/h. 

Friday and Friday Night: During Friday afternoon we begin to move on the east side of the low pressure system which will draw back cooler air from the Arctic with precipitation switching over from rain to snow for South Central and southeast port so the province areas of the southwest that did not pick up much snow also pick up snow journal announce of 10 to 14 centimeters of snow as possible there is also a chance that areas of extreme SW Manitoba may receive amounts closer to 18 or 19 centimeters. Most models are still diverging on a solution for snowfall totals so this may change according to Justin from Manitoba Weather centre a general five to 10 centimeters of snow could fall in Red River valley and points west . When all is said and done the heaviest of the snow will set up to be over the parklands and West Central Manitoba area is around Swan River up to Lake Winnipegosis into southeastern Saskatchewan with fifteen to twenty five centimeters of snow possible there. I have attached a photo of snowfall forecast totals so the storm will occur on Thursday night in the southwest and on Friday and Friday afternoon and evening in the southeast, The NAM model suggests a narrow but heavy swath of snow moving through traveling SE on Friday evening into the late evening hours before entering Ontario by around midnight. Temperatures on Friday afternoon majority of the region will see the values in the low minus single digits with areas the South Central and the Interlakes especially Overlake Winnipeg from plus one to zero degrees Celsius with Winnipeg on the fringe of the above zero temperatures although they could also experience temperatures above zero on Friday afternoon. One thing to mention behind the cold front is strong northwest to north wind develops with wind gusts possibly exceeding 60 kilometers an hour, the main concern is the shoreline on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg with building ice a ice advisory has been issued along the lakes for concerns of ice moving on properties:Manitoba warns of high winds and potential ice buildup on major lakes - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca  I do not know if there is significant amount of ice on lakes quite yet but that is something to keep in mind as the winds move out to the north. Windchill values overnight will likely be in the minus teens for majority of the region especially as you go further West and north to areas that have heavy snow cover. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper minus single digits some areas may escape that and only approach the mid to upper minus single digits especially the southwest.

During the day on Saturday temperatures will be a lot colder compared to Friday and Thursday daytime high values with a majority of the region seeing temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits with a slight wind chill of low minus teens for areas with very little snow cover areas with more significant snow cover may see windchill values closer to the mid minus teens. Saturday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits and windchill values again in the minus teens and possibility of low minus 20’s. The rest of the weekend looks calm and seasonal with highs on Sunday in the mid To high minus single digits. (-4 to -8C). Overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will remain mild with majority of that region seeing overnight low values in the mid minus single digits with windchill values in the minus teens.

Another Winter heatwave expected to impact southern Manitoba

 Hello folks it’s Mike McGregor again , we are more than likely going to experience another round of warmer than average weather is expected to impact southern Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather and when and where the warmest of the weather will be . Also find out how this weather will come to an end. I’m not going to look forwards to it , hint we might be getting another bout of winter weather.  

Above temperatures look to soar on Wednesday afternoon with some areas of the south of getting to the 10°C mark or above 10°C, which is absolutely unheard of for December

Let’s get through the details for Tuesday: High temperature is on Tuesday on Tuesday will rise into the mid to low minus single digits with a majority of the region seeing cloudy to partly cloudy skies. There will be persistent fog in the early morning hours into the early afternoon hours, as seen on Sunday night. There is a higher chance of seeing some sun in the late afternoon hours, particularly for the red river Valley and eastern Manitoba.

Tuesday night: More than likely a warm front will be approaching a region, and this will usher in a much warmer air mass for Wednesday as a result, temperatures will likely rise overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will rise from the mid minus single digits to the low minus single digits to near the freezing mark for some areas. 

Wednesday: Southern Manitoba will become enveloped in the warm sector of low pressure system on Wednesday with high temperatures soaring into the mid to high single digits. Some areas may get closer to the 10°C mark along the American border. Temperatures on Wednesday may approach record highs given the fact that our normal daytime highs for December is in fact close to -10°C. 

Wednesday night: Overnight low temperatures for majority of the region will drop again below zero but will hang around the -3 to -5C° mark some areas may be a bit warmer specifically south, central and southern Manitoba. 

Thursday again much of southern Manitoba will be in the southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system expected for Thursday night that will impact extreme Southwestern portions Manitoba.Temperatures on Thursday will rise in to the mid plus side, single digits. 

There is also a possibility that record high temperatures will be again broken on Thursday with temperatures again soaring past 4°C for majority of the region. 

Thursday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Thursday will stay mild above for areas of the south east and south central part of Manitoba areas. The south west will drop below zero. There is also a possibility for increasing moisture with a low pressure system moving through in the morning hours into Friday. The precipitation, timing type and amounts are still yet to be determined. There will be information posted in a future post about this on Thursday afternoon or evening, there is also going to be a weekend blog posted around that time so look for that on Thursday afternoon or evening. 

Abnormally Warm and Dry Weather, continues. Your Weekend details are here.

 Well Folks I am back after a long break, much of the weather lately has been dull and uninteresting. I am unfortunately not enjoying the lack of snow if this was the month of March I would be okay with it. Regardless the latest satellite image from weatherlogics (below) proves how dry it has been lately. As usual with El Nino, the jetstream is further north which is allowing that warmer weather to persist over the Canadian Prairie provinces with our temperatures at least 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above average this past week heading into the second half of the week temperatures will return closer to normal. This weather blog will not be too long as there isn't a lot of weather happening over the next three to five days .

Thursday: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the low minus single digits and wind chill values in the mid to high minus single digits, some flurries are possible during the morning hours with clearing skies possible in the afternoon the sunniest regions in the province appear to be the Red River valley and the eastern parts of the province. Thursday night: Mild and slightly above average overnight low temperatures continue with lows for the majority of the province in the mid minus to high minus single digits with areas, over the Manitoba Lakes dropping around minus 8 to minus ten degrees Celsius . Just wanted to mention that temperatures which are in the high minus single digits are usually the colder side of values it's the opposite of high plus single digits. 

Friday: Much of southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a southerly flow or westerly flow thanks to us being situated on the southern side of a stationary or warm front this will aid in majority of the cold temperatures sitting over northern Manitoba. It will be another mild day with the majority of the region seeing partly sunny to mostly sunny skies with some cloud. No precipitation or snow is expected on the day Friday with high temperatures again sitting in the low minus single digits close to around 0 degrees it's possible that some areas may approach or get above zero degrees Celsius during the day on Friday .

Friday night: It appears that some increase in cloud may be possible during the overnight hours with some flurries beginning in the morning hours on Saturday. Temperatures on Friday night will likely drop into some seasonal daytime high values which is above normal for overnight lows, with a majority of the region seeing low temperatures in the mid minus equal digits some other areas may drop around closer to minus seven to minus nine degrees . The reason for the warm overnight low temperatures is the continued southwesterly flow ahead of a through low pressure which will impact the region on the weekend.

Our warm weather pattern continues to the weekend with our high temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits for overnight lows and low to mid minus single digits for daytime highs. There is a chance for some flurries on the day Saturday followed by calmer weather conditions on Sunday and the same weather pattern will likely persist into the week next week.

Record Breaking Warmth Impacting Southern Manitoba today, cold air returns for the rest of the week.

 Southern Manitoba get ready to experience a mild day on Monday I know this post is a bit late however I will still have a little bit of a glimpse of what we can expect to see this evening before colder Arctic air moves in on Wednesday there are some concerns this evening as rain is possible over seven sections of Manitoba with the passage of a cold front.  

As I write this a large swath of rain is currently sitting over the Portage La Prairie Regions moving north into the interlakes moving east at about 20 to 30 kilometers an hour, this rain will impact a large portion of the South Central and southeastern parts of Manitoba this evening the unfortunate news is that a lot of this rain may freeze if it does not dry before the cooler air sets in therefore we have a high risk of ice build up on roads and highways.  Temperatures tonight will take a swing down into the low minus single digits from about 11:00 PM to about 6:00 AM onwards there is a high chance that much of the South will be seeing wind chill values around minus 5 to -10C. 

On Tuesday temperatures will soar into the low minus single digits around minus one to minus two degrees celsius for most, in the interlakes to southeast Manitoba. There will be some areas seeing values around the freezing mark or slightly above in the southwest part of the province. Sunny skies are likely for the day on Tuesday with a brief West to northwest wind. On Tuesday night interestingly enough the lakes will be warm enough so that temperatures over areas of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba will not drop below zero especially if you're closer to the lake shore, areas outside of that specifically all of the southern part of the province except for areas along the border will see overnight lows in the low to mid minus single digits which will be around minus 1 to minus 3 degrees Celsius. 

On Wednesday a trough will sweep from west to east across the southern part of the province leaving behind it a northerly flow which may increase the risk of lake effect flurries or snow showers, mostly cloudy skies are likely for a majority of the day with some sun peeking through at times. The warmest it will get is around zero degrees in the afternoon and the Winnipeg region areas along and South of highway 2 or highway one will see high temperatures above zero degrees celsius areas north of that will only see high temperatures in the low minus single digits around minus one to minus 3 degrees Celsius which is a sharp contrast from the day on Monday with our temperatures seeing values around 7 to about 12 degrees Celsius. During the hours in the evening there will be a temperature drop right after sunset from, our warm values to a colder air mass which will likely envelop the region for the next several days after this. 

Wednesday Night: Temperatures will drop from zero degrees Celsius and slightly below zero to the low to high minus single digits around the evening most will be seeing values between -1 to -8C, areas in the interlakes will be seeing the coldest around sunset with values around minus seven degrees celsius. Areas further south will still be cold with majority of the region seeing, A very cold Arctic air mass the difference in this situation is that there will be No snow on the ground which usually tends to amplify that cold air so even though that our values will be around minus 10 to minus 12 degrees in the morning hours there will be very little wind chill which will prevent it from feeling like December or January.

The second half of the week seasonal temperatures look to return which will help reduce the significant cold that we've experienced during Wednesday, I'm seeing a reprieve on Thursday with our high temperatures returning to the mid minus single digits. Very little precipitation is expected into the second half of the week with only a trace to two centimeters of snow possible if anything occurs, overnight lows on second half of the week will very be between the mid minus single digits to the mid minus teens .

 I do not expect the coldest of the weather until Wednesday.

Warm Weather persists, Montana low pressure system to make things interesting on Thursday

 All folks, it looks like Southern Manitoba is on track to experience another snowfall on Thursday nights to a Montana low pressure system, which will direct along the north Dakota amount of the border. This will not be a significant snowfall and the good news is is that warm temperatures will continue to persist behind this little precious system, and there is a possibility of seeing record high temperatures this coming week . We on to find out more about the weather ahead. 

Tonight: Southern Manitoba will be on the northern side of low pressure system, which will bring a small swath of snow through the southwest portion, into the interlakes. Overnight into Thursday morning. General 1-5cm can be expected. Majority of the snow should occur in the Interlake region into the Parkland. There is a small possibility that could travel further south over the red river valley . Overnight Lowe’s tonight should be in the low minus single digits generally minus one to -3°C with areas further east in the eastern part of Manitoba seeing Low’s around zero. 

Thursday: Snow will persist on Thursday with a swat going through the south Central part of the province during the late morning too early afternoon hours before clearing high temperatures, however, will linger on the freezing mark and be a lot cooler on Thursday than earlier in the week. Brief shot of arctic air will follow behind the front with windchill values closer to -5C. The coldest of the year will likely be in Interlakes areas. Further south will be fortunate enough to see highs above 0C. 

Thursday Night: behind the front cooler air will development of southern Manitoba with daytime highs dropping into the low minus single digits to minus single digits with windshield values around -10 for a majority of the region. Average low temperatures for Thursday night will be around the -3 to -5C mark. 

Friday: sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely on Friday with high temperatures in the mid single digits, which is about 10° above our normal For this time of year of -2. Another good day to get out and enjoy as high-pressure sits over the region. No significant weather is expected on Friday or the weekend. Friday night: Calm weather is likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits, 

The weekend: High temperature is on the weekend will be back in the mid high single digits with some areas seeing values around five to about 7°C. It will be difficult to figure out where the warmest of air will be but given that snow will melt, after the snowfall on Thursday there will likely be a significant change in temperatures from the end of the week. Also overnight, low temperatures will be above the freezing mark which will likely persist into the first part of the week. 

Wild winter weather, rain, snow freezing rain threat ends off the weekend. Mild Weather into next week.

 The Southern Manitoba will be experiencing another round of unsettled weather and one of the most interesting weather setups we have had within the last few months, a large area of low pressure will begin to impact parts of southwestern Manitoba by the early morning hours as it develops in Saskatchewan. This will likely bring a wintery mix to our region on Sunday with a risk of rain freezing rain and snow there is already several weather alerts issued for this system. This will be a more interesting weather update done in the last few months as I have a bit of enthusiasm as well I also want you to be aware that it could be a dangerous day for travel tomorrow afternoon read on to find out about this weekends weather blog.

Tonight: a warm front will begin to sweep from west to east across southern Manitoba with initial band of snow moving through overnight era hours followed by batch of freezing rain which will stall out over central Manitoba including the Interlakes and Red River Valley areas points west to Brandon by morning hours. Based on the current data I am seeing snow and freezing rain will start developing by about 12:00 AM to 3:00 AM in western Manitoba, About 5:00 AM to six AMA large swath of rain mixed with snow will be moving through the Interlakes and northern sections of the Red River Valley which will not include Winnipeg there is a possibility however of rain and ice mixing over the Red River Valley section by the morning majority of the ice and freezing rain will be to the west of Winnipeg. Overnight tonight low temperatures are likely to drop into the low minus single digits with areas west of Winnipeg, dropping and hovering around 0C. 

Sunday: A large swath of rain, freezing rain and snow will set up shop over southern manitoba, with areas north of the highway 1 at highest risk for snowfall amounts upwards of 5 to 10cm of snow.  As far north as the Thompson and Island Lake Regions, Temperatures will rise on the day Sunday in the south with our overall highs getting up to between one to 5 degrees celsius. A significant area of freezing rain is possible west and north of Winnipeg with highlighted areas from Swan River and dauphin SE through Lake Manitoba winnipeg on the edge of the highest amounts which will cover farmland regions from Portage La Prairie through Brunkild up to Steinbach sliding southwest of Winnipeg . Depending on the frontal position this band of freezing rain could shift E and if it does freezing rain warnings will likely be issued by environment Canada during the morning regardless I'm expecting that from Beausejour West to Brandon North to Dauphin can expect between one to five millimeters of freezing rain in the morning. During the afternoon more than likely rain will take over with large area from southwestern Manitoba into the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba likely expect to see between one to five millimeters of rain by the end of the day. Be aware that this could change as models have been all over the place the RA P HRRR the NAM have been showing different areas and timing precipitation so stay tuned for weather updates on Manitoba Weather centre. 

Sunday night: As the low sits over southern Manitoba a large swath of rain will sit over the area with majority of the freezing rain and snow off to the north in the Interlakes with areas north of Gimli and Winnipeg Beach seeing snow areas south of Winnipeg Beach and Gimli more than likely seeing freezing rain which will extend along a band west to east into the Bissett Nopiming regions and the

Dauphin and Swan River Parklands. As the evening progresses rain and rain at times heavy may persist over the southern border regions up to highway 75 and hwy 3 there's a possibility this may shift further north looking at the rain accumulations and given that temperatures will drop overnight there is a possibility of rain freezing which will put a risk and strain on power and power lines specifically areas south of highway 2 and Morden/Emerson regions. Roads will be icy as snow begins to transition from rain and freezing rain. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15mm is likely. Read the Ice Index to the left to determine if your area is at risk of power outages, and what disruptions could occur as a result of rain freezing.

Total rainfall accumulations below in inches....

Monday: A calmer and cooler day is more than likely, What is concerning is that temperatures will drop for a large region of the South with areas that received rainfall during the day on Sunday will see overnight lows around zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius which will put a significant risk for roads and power lines to freeze on contact if there is any rain or moisture. High temperatures on Monday will only sit in the minus single digits with areas warmest in NW Ontario. Cloudy weather is more than likely for the rest of the day on Monday with cloudy skies and overnight low temperatures again Dropping into the mid minus single digits there is a high potential of wind chills around minus ten degrees Celsius on Monday night .

Warmer weather is likely again on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures above zero and overnight lows a degree or two below zero, no significant weather is likely during the second half of the first part of the week. Also are normal temperature will begin dropping below zero this week, so with the El Nino running the show for the first few months of winter this weather will feel quite tropical compared to last year at this time. 

-Mike McGregor

Colder weather arriving, first snowfall of the season this week??

 I'm back again after a long break, been going to a day program called new directions and I am glad that I was able to get that time off. Regardless a colder than average weather pattern is likely to take shape, for the next couple of weeks in Manitoba. This forecast will detail the chances for snow and colder weather as a arctic front plows through what was a unseasonably warm airmass over the last few weeks. I was quite surprised that we were seeing high temperatures in the mid to high teens the last several weeks, I even wore my shorts on October 2nd. Anyways on to the forecast.

Wednesday: A low pressure system (shown in photo above, on Thursday) will be moving into southern sections of Manitoba on the day Wednesday with a good chance of seeing snow and mixed precipitation heading into the afternoon. High temperatures, will be expected in the low single digits to low minus single digits. A swath of 10-20cm of snow is likely for a large portion of southwestern Manitoba from areas south of highway 1 to the international border. There will as usual be a risk for traffic problems to start off the snow fall . 

Wednesday Night: A large swath of snow will continue to impact southern parts of Manitoba with the bulk of it expected to cover areas south of highway 1. Overall amounts will vary from sections seeing only about 2cm, to as much as 20cm near border regions. Temperatures will likely take a plunge on the cold side of the low pressure system with lows as cold as -2 to -7C. General accumulations can be seen in the photo below… 

Thursday and Friday: Southern Manitoba will be escaping the low pressure system as a colder than average air mass will likely take place with her over all highs below normal. Snow and flurries will continue on the day Thursday before tapering off in the mid to late evening hours at another 2-5cm is possible during the afternoon. Overall accumulations may change, so stay tuned forecast if the heavier snow fall and swath moves north. 

Temperatures Thursday will be in the low single digits and overnight Lows in The low to mid minus single digits. Partly cloudy, mostly cloudy skies are likely on the day Friday, as well as Thursday nights as the low pressure system departs overall high temperature as well remain above zero with overnight lows, dropping into the low minus single digits. The weekend looks as though a large area of high-pressure builds off in western Canada that will move east through the late weekend so a little bit cooler than average temperatures with highs in the low minus single digits. 

Warm Weather, Above seasonal temperatures continue.

 Blog will come for the weekend details, tomorrow. I am headed to bed and as I write this it is it is 10PM.

Shower and Thunderstorm Chances return to Southern Manitoba, Fall Severe Thunderstorms to start October. Unusually Mild.

 Good afternoon and good evening southern Manitoba folks, looks like a very interesting weather setup is in store for this weekend with the potential for some active weather on the day Sunday, unusually warm air mass is expected to filter into southern Manitoba this weekend with a possibility of high temperatures rising into the high 20s with humidity values in the low 30's. A low pressure system coming up from Montana will influence the weather this weekend which will provide this summerlike weather. 

Saturday: Warm weather will increase overall as a warm front approaches from the south, temperatures will rise into the mid 20’s for the southern half of Manitoba and high teens in the Interlake regions. Calm and sunny weather is likely on Saturday. 

Saturday Night (Thunderstorms likely as shown on the RDPS above.. and NAM Below..

Saturday Night: (Above: Photo of SkewT Graph of Winnipeg area during sunday night). A warm front will lift north into the overnight period , as a result temperatures will remain mild with lows in the mid teens around 12-15C. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: What is most of concern is that as the warm front moves into a cooler airmass that air will begin to rise, during the late evening into the overnight period CAPE values will begin filling into the very Unstable range over southwestern portions of Manitoba into eastern sections. Likely providing an opportunity for the development of thunderstorms some of which may end up becoming severe especially in the morning hours. Data at the moment is showing development happening in western Manitoba by 3am moving east into the red River valley by sunrise. If the warm front gets slowed down moving north then the threat for storms will occur during the latter half of the morning into the early afternoon. Regardless a threat for hail the size of 1-4cm in diameter is a possibility meaning pea size to golf ball size, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall in excess of 40mm in localized areas. Storms will fire wherever the front can interact with the cool airmass to the north and anywhere from the USA border to the interlakes is a possibility, all of West MB to the whiteshell. 

Sunday: I am expecting on the day Sunday that showers and thunderstorms will clear the area as the front continues to move northwards with the hot and humid air mass enveloping much of southern Manitoba on the day in the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday may reach the high 20s with humidex in the low 30s, there is some inconsistency with some model runs. The NAM is saying the majority of the heat will be centred over northern North Dakota whereas the RDPS and GDPS both show it impacting majority of the southern Manitoba so it depends on how far north the warm front can position itself in the afternoon. There may be a threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon however more than likely in eastern and central Manitoba and the interlakes. If any storms form in the capped and unstable airmass from lake breeze interactions storms may be stronger than in the morning with the potential for supercells as a possibility, large hail, damaging winds and heavy flooding rains.

Sunday Night (Left): Photo of the NAM showing thunderstorm chances in the central and eastern parts of Manitoba): A possibility exists for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening as a   occluded front moves through a hot humid air mass, The Zero Zulu NAM model is the only one showing this at the moment so we'll need to bear watching as we get into the afternoon on Sunday to see if there will be a chance at thunderstorms some severe on Sunday evening. It is doubtful though as main forcing remains to the north. Overnight low temperature on Sunday will slowly decrease from the mid 20s to the high teens centred over eastern Manitoba as a cold front remains further off to the east which means by morning temperatures will still be in the teens in South Central Manitoba. A mild night is expected on Sunday night. 

The week ahead (Above: Thunderstorms are possible on Monday Night): 

Showers and thunderstorms are likely for the day on Monday and Tuesday with a cold front moving through a  unstable air mass. Temperatures on Monday will likely reach the low 20s to mid 20s with some areas of Western Manitoba and interlakes seeing high temperatures in the high teens. More than likely overnight lows in the mid to high teens and high temperatures in the low 20's are likely, before  a switch to temperatures in the mid to high teens for highs. Cooler weather arrives behind the cold front on Tuesday evening. 

Regardless enjoy the unusually warm start to October thanks to El Nino and Climate Change. 

-Mike McGregor

Weather details for the weekend coming soon!

 All the details for the weekend weather will be included in a blog Friday afternoon based on current weather information temperatures will rebound into the high 20s this weekend with a risk of severe thunderstorms based on current model data all that information will be coming in on Friday afternoon have a good evening. 

-Mike McGregor

Showers and Thunderstorms and cool weather this e

This blog will be brief as I am not feeling the best, there will be a slightly unsettled weekend in store. For those of you wondering a strong low pressure system will be sitting off to the south in north dakota. Thunderstorms will likely develop in a hot and humid environment in North Dakota on Saturday which with the low pressure system they will move east into the areas of Minnesota. 

Showers are likely on Saturday and saturday night with thunderstorms from Minnesota moving north and west into Manitoba on Saturday night weakening with some occasional rumbles of thunder possible overnight into Sunday morning. A large low will pivot and move north on Sunday this low is a bit weird in how it will move, it almost will look like a mini hurricane on sattelite. Remnant showers and thunderstorms may continue over into Sunday morning. Showers scattered in nature will likely persist into Sunday afternoon. Best chances are likely south of the international border. Remnant showers are likely across southern sections of the province on Sunday night. Temperatures this weekend will likely be cooler than average unfortunately with temperatures in the teens more than likely for highs and lows. 

Showers and Thunderstorms possible, hot weather returns next week.

This blog will be brief. southern sections in Manitoba will likely experience another day and usettled weather and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system moves through a slightly unstable airmass. The details for the weekend will be included in this blog with information on the threat for thunderstorms and hot weather returning next week.

Thursday (convective potential shown above for tomorrow afternoon and evening based on the NAM above): High temperatures for the day on Thursday will rise into the high 20's into the southeast part of Manitoba, with areas behind the cold front seeing values in the mid teens. There is a risk however that not all areas will see these values due to cloudcover in the morning hours. During the morning hours there will be a batch of showers in southwestern Manitoba which may be embedded with thunder. Later during the morning hours there may be some convection remnants in the Interlake region which will move east into Lake Winnipeg and the Nopiming provincial park regions. There may be a chance that those showers could extend into the red River Valley during the early morning hours and if they do they will clear by the afternoon bringing some sunshine and temperatures will rebound into the 20s as I mentioned. Convective available potential energy levels will rise into the high 700 to 1000 joules per kilogram which is the equivalent of minor to moderate instability if thunderstorms develop they will have some shear to work with. Generally in a area of 100 to 200 SRH values should be present which will allow for some storm organization. Because it is so late in the season storms will not be able to intensify at the levels they would have in July so if storms form there will be risk for marginal size hail up to the size of one centimeter or two centimeters there also will be a risk for rainfall amounts of twenty five millimeters to fifty millimeters in heavier storms. Wind gusts will not exceed 80 kilometers an hour in thunderstorms. Thursday night showers and thunderstorms will likely only impact the southeastern part of Manitoba and move into northwestern Ontario after sunsets,overnight low temperatures will drop into the low teens in the southeast at Red River Valley and areas in the southwest will see lows in the high single digits .

Friday: This is when the forecast gets a little bit more interesting a frontal boundary will slide S from northern sections Manitoba into the southern part of the province bringing with it Out ahead of a temperatures in the low 20s and high teens for areas in the lakes Sunny skies are likely for the first half of the afternoon before clouds roll in for the 2nd half of the afternoon. A batch of showers and likely embedded thunderstorms given the time of year we are in we cannot rule out the potential for some thunderstorms as remnant instability sits over the region with values in the 100 to 600 joules per kilogram range. It is not likely that these storms will reach the severe limits just your typical garden variety type thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms may persist into the early evening to mid evening hours on Friday . 

Friday Night: I know those of you are wondering with the frontal system passing into the south despite there being northerly flow temperatures will not drop below 10 degrees for the South Central and SE parts of the province if you are wondering about frost areas of the southwest should be more concerned as clear skies are likely and temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high single digits with areas in more rural regions more susceptible to frost developments this is because cloud cover will likely be in place overnight in SE. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will likely take a little bit of a plunge for the weekend Saturday being the coolest day with high temperatures only reaching the high teens which is around our normal for this time of year. Overnight low temperatures on Saturday night will drop into the mid to high single digits, in the southwest with areas in the red river valley and the southeast in the low teens. On the day Sunday temperatures will rebound into the low 20s, Areas in the southwest may be lucky and could see highs around 24 to about 25 degrees celsius overnight lows will again drop into the low teens to mid for Sunday nights. 

Next week: It appears though a fairly marginal ridge will build into the region which will allow for our temperatures during a week to return into the high 20s at low 30s there is also a possibility that humidity may build in with this as well but not to summertime levels so we may still see the potential for some instability building in there will be really no significant level of energy for severe thunderstorms so we're looking at more typical fall dry heat. Overnight lows will be in the mid to high teens as well. 

Cool Start To The Week, Frost Possible. Signs of above normal temperatures returning. :-)

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing a cooler than average next few days before potentially hotter and more unsettled weather returns, this blog will cover the outlook for Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a risk of frost tonight as well. So details about this will definitely be brought up. 

Tonight: Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low single digits tonight, there is a possibility that some areas of southern Manitoba may see lows below 0C. High pressure will build south into northwestern Ontario tonight bringing a very cool airmass for this time of year. 

Tuesday: A southerly flow will return for the day on Tuesday with high pressure moving east, temperatures will return to normal daytime highs in the low 20's and mid 20's in western Manitoba. Below Normal values again will likely return on Tuesday night which is of concern because frost this time of year is not really expected, temperatures will drop again into the low to mid single digits. I do miss waking up to high temperatures in the teens. Fall is coming. 

Wednesday: A warm front will move in on Wednesday with a increasing amount of cloudcover, high temperatures will reach the high teens and low 20's. The warmest of the air will be in the southwest part of Manitoba. Wednesday night: A frontal system will move through on Wednesday Night, with a chance for showers and weak thunderstorms especially in western Manitoba areas. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens on Wednesday Night, which is typical of lows in July or August. 

The Second half of the week: Warmer than average temperatures in the high 20's may be returning only on the day Thursday with some possible instabilty or thunderstorms, only for a brief period of time.  However it looks like the pattern may take a while to evolve as ridging in the summer time usually develops quicker, than this time of year which may push most of the warmth to next week as heat remains in Saskatchewan. Regardless warmer temperatures are here finally and I hope that we can enjoy the last little bit of the summer.

-Mike McGregor

Heat Ends Thunderstorm Chances return.

 Southern Manitoba experienced a really hot humid weekend with high temperatures in the mid 30s sparking heat warnings across a large section of the prairies. The good news is that this pattern has eased as a trough digging in to the west coast, is beginning to shift east into our region bringing with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms.  A frontal system will be approaching southern Manitoba this evening and overnight bringing another round of unsettled weather, which will influence our weather for the first half of the week. The unfortunate thing is with our weather pattern this past summer is that we have not received the rainfall we needed, the Gulf of Mexico rarely opened up for moisture source due to the constant cold air being shunted south. I hope that the rain we get tonight will help with this, as we are in a pretty large moisture defecit. 

 (Above: Various Model Solutions are hinting at showers and thunderstorms impacting southern sections of Manitoba tonight, areas of the southeast will more than likely see a large swath of rainfall amounts between 10 to 40mm. 

Monday: This afternoon as I write this there are thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba impacting Lake Winnipeg and Victoria Beach areas there is also some moisture streaming north from Montana into the dakotas, dewpoints in the mid to high teens are likely today. Based on what I am seeing temperatures today will rise into the high 20s in southeastern Manitoba with areas of southwestern Manitoba and the Interlake seeing high temperatures in the low twenties to mid twenties. This afternoon there is a chance for some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, the main batch of convection will come in later on tonight. This afternoon there is a chance for some severe thunderstorms in southeastern portions of Manitoba not including the city Winnipeg as well with capping in place storms may be unable to develop until later on when the cold front interacts with the instability Of 1000 joules per kilogram available for storms . The one thing I'm noticing on the latest HRR R model run is that a chance of convection appears to develop in southwestern Manitoba moving into the Red River Valley by the evening. Some of which of them could be severe I will have to monitor that as the HRRRR is the only model run depicting a multi cell or supercell developing by evening in the southwest. 

Tonight: There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, initially there will be thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba with only isolated chances and some of them may be severe. another round of thunderstorms and showers are likely to move into southern sections of the province from North Dakota during the overnight. The most severe of thunderstorms occurring south of the international border and through Emerson through Steinbach into southeastern section of the province and the white shell. Areas further west including the Red River Valley and portions of the Pembina Valley and the Interlakes can expect showers with isolated rumbles of Thunder there may be some Heavier rain occurring in the more extreme southern portions of those areas. The RDPS,GFS,GDPS model are the only models hinting at a large swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain occurring over the red river valley, areas S and E of Winnipeg may be impacted by the heavier rains as depicted by the NAM and the HRRR model run, with Areas along the Pembina Valley into the Red River valley and Lake Winnipeg seeing amounts between 10 and twenty millimeters. Areas from highway 59 Steinbach Emerson into the kenora Regions can expect ten to twenty five to thirty millimeters of rain. If you're going to look at model data in comparison to all the runs a general swath of 10 to fifty millimeters of rain is possible anywhere from Portage La Prairie East to the Ontario border and south to Emerson, it is nearly impossible to forecast local rainfall amounts in convection so a general amount of precipitation forecast versus exact will help determine the probability of receiving more than twenty mm of rain. Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop behind the cold front with a vast area of western Manitoba seeing lows in the mid teens and areas in the southeast and the mid to high teens as well as the Inter lakes. 

(Rainfall amounts as forecast by the RDPS weather model, note amounts may not be exact, however this is a pretty accurate picture of what the weather pattern is holding.)

Tuesday: Remnant convection will continue during the morning hours in southeastern Manitoba if a majority of the storms remain in extreme southeastern portions as well as northwestern Ontario general showers are expected during the morning with cloud cover during the afternoon clearing by mid to late afternoon hours in the province with cooler temperatures likely for Tuesday. For the day Tuesday high temperatures will likely reach the mid to high teens some areas may surpass 20 degrees if the sun can come out by the afternoon hours as high pressure starts building in. Tuesday Night: The first cold blast of the season is likely with a northerly flow behind the cold front and overnight lows only dropping down into the mid to high single digits For most ( 5 to 10C) some areas in the parklands portions Manitoba may drop down as cold as four degrees Celsius. Areas over the waters and Manitoba Lakes especially by Victoria Beach winnipeg Beach,Gimli Arnes and Delta Beach can expect overnight lows to stay in the mid teens because the waters are warmer this time of year. 

Wednesday: High temperatures on the day Wednesday will be similar to that of Tuesday with a large section of the province seeing highs in the mid to high teens some areas especially by dolphin and the parklands will see highs around 20 degrees there will be a little bit of heat centered over southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday with that region seeing highs in the high twenties to low thirties. sunny skies are likely on the day Wednesday with very little in the way of humidity. Wednesday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop once again down into the high single digits, areas in the Interlakes and parklands however will be under the influence of a warm front so overnight lows will likely drop into the low teens in those regions.

Second Half Of The Week: Data is showing that a through will begin developing over southern Manitoba into Ontario during the second half of the week which will likely bring cooler temperatures I don't see a change in the pattern in this until least middle or too late next week as ridging begins to develop .Another frontal system will move into the province on the day Thursday bring another chance for unsettled weather and showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the period will remain in the high teens to low 20's and overnight lows in the mid to high single digits with areas at times dropping into the mid single digits. Fall weather is slowly approaching. 

(If you're wondering where I get my weather information from I use pivotal weather.com as well I use nex lab college of du page meteorology, I use the National Weather Service weather prediction Center for weather frontal systems as well as the aviation weather services maps that pilots use.  I also look at model consensus on weather logics and I use a blend of the Nam HRRR RAP as well as the RDPS model to make weather forecast conclusions.)

Shower and Thunderstorm chances return, severe weather again a risk

 Southern Manitoba is at risk again for increased amounts of unsettled weather with the risk of thunderstorms and possible severe thunderstorms. As a large ridge sits off to the south in the central United states a trough of low pressure will cascade over western Canada bringing another area of low pressure which will move into central canada and Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather pattern and temperature pattern as we also expect a strong ridge to build over us this weekend. 

Tonight: A system in Montana and southeastern Saskatchewan will increase the convective potential. Overnight low temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high teens, there is a large area of CAPE into the 1,000 range in southwestern portions of Manitoba. As a result there is a likelihood that thunderstorms will develop in montana and drift north into all areas of western Manitoba. There is a high chance that those areas could see rainfall totals in the 25 to 50mm range, there is also a threat for large hail and damaging winds. I do not see tornadoes at all as a threat. 

Thursday: Thunderstorms will continue in the morning hours in western Manitoba with the highest chances in central Manitoba showers may spread across the south in the morning, potentially preventing storm energy from being able to build up in the afternoon. Hoewever if showers clear by the late morning storm potential may increase.  Latest data right now is also showing clearing coming by the afternoon hours, a trough will sit off to the west in western Manitoba. Ahead of it a large area of moisture will move in from the United states covering much of Manitoba with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens. As a result MUCAPES are forecast to be in the 1,000 to 2,000 J/Kg range, over the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage storms either will only impact eastern Manitoba and the Lake Winnipeg regions or completely hit the red river valley and eastern sections of the province. We will find out more about the threat area in the latest update from environment canada in the morning, based on what I see currently there is a threat for thunderstorms across southern Manitoba on the day Thursday with the southeast at the biggest risk for severe thunderstorms, areas in western Manitoba could have training thunderstorms. TEMPERATURES: Forecast to be in the mid 20's in the southwest and the high 20's and low 30's in the southeast with humidex in the mid to high 30's. 

Thursday Night: Clear skies are forecast again with overnight lows in the mid teens in the southwest and west, areas in the southeast can expect lows in the high teens. (15-18C). Some remnant showers and thunderstorms are possible as the area of low pressure moves into northwestern Ontario. 

Friday: Calm weather is expected and the same for friday night, under the presence of a building ridge of high pressure. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid to high 20's. Friday Night: Overnight lows likely in the mid to high teens with clear skies and a westerly flow likely. This is really good because it will prevent us from seeing significant smoke from filtering in. I dont see any northwesterly flow developing this weekend allowing that as a potential. 

The Weekend (Above): The weather starts becoming more interesting, troughing is likely over the southwestern United States which will create sort of a digging southwards then a extension north and eastwards that will basically allow the jetstream to sit over our region. What that means is there will more than likely be increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, there could be a threat for storms some may be severe. Also the heat runs into Saturday and Sunday as we see high temperatures once again in the high 20's and low 30's. There may or may not be higher levels of humidity that is still to be determined. Regardless an interesting end of meteorlogical summer is likely. 

Unsettled Weather Set To Run Over Southern Manitoba

 Southern Sections of Manitoba will be in the crosshairs of remnants of Tropical storm hillary this week, which is unheard of for this part of the world. The upper level flow and jetstream is setup with a large ridge over the northern United States. We are sitting on the north side of that with the main jetstream over top of us, which will increase the chances again for showers and thunderstorms and ridge riding low pressure systems. Find out what that means for us in this weeks blog.

Tuesday: During the day Tuesday, remnants of Tropical storm Hillary will be moving through central areas of Manitoba bringing with it a chance at convection and rainfall with amounts of 5 to 15mm. Cloudy skies are forecast once again across southern Manitoba however that may change as I am seeing some forecast potential of high pressure off to the northeast, despite this a frontal system will sit off to the southwest which may allow for some form of trigger for thunderstorms in southeastern Manitoba during the afternoon and early evening. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range which will allow for marginally severe to possibly severe thunderstorms. Temperatures in the southeast part of Manitoba will rise into the mid to high 20's in that region, areas in southwestern Manitoba will however only see high values in the high teens to low 20's. There will be MUCAPE values in the eastern half of Manitoba in the 1,000 to 2,000J/Kg range, not significant shear will be present so if storms do develop they may have some difficulty organizing and they will be very isolatd. Regardless a risk for thunderstorms will be likely across a large portion of southern Manitoba with areas in the southeast at a moderate risk level.

Tuesday Night: Showers or Thunderstorms will exit the province by the evening. Overnight temperatures in the southeast will likely drop into the high teens and areas in the southwest in the mid teens. Cloudy skies will likely remain in place. 

Wednesday: Temperatures on the day Wednesday will even be hotter with high temperatures forecast into the mid to high 20's. The overall picture for the day is that a frontal system will sit off to our south as the ridge drags south, with dewpoint values in the mid to high teens the instability numbers willl only grow into the 700 to 1,500J/Kg range. There will be a risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Best chances for storms again appear to be in isolated pockets across the south. Nothing organized looks likely, however any storms that form will have the potential to bring large hail and damaging winds. We will monitor this forecast for updates. Overnight clearing can be expected with overall temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

Second Half of the week: More showers and thunderstorms look likely with a few more disturbances moving over the top of the ridge over the United states. Temperatures for this period will remain in the mid to high 20's for highs and lows in the mid to upper teens. 

Calm Weekend, Transition expected for Southern regions of Manitoba. Pattern Change on the Way!!!

 Southern Manitoba has experienced a wild past 24 hours with wind gusts associated with a cold front exceeding 90 km an hour at times. As a result, there has been reports of downed trees and powerlines across the province. The weather into our weekend can be expected to be calmer and quieter as a ridge builds over the central United States. A more robust pattern for storm chances increase along with heat heading into next week. Find out how this transition will occur and the weather we can expect before all this unfolds in this weekends blog. 

(Above:) Hot weather is likely on the day Friday with highs in the high 20’s and low 30’s. 

Friday: Southern Manitoba can expect a hot day on the day Friday with high temperatures in the low 30s, especially along the American border and high 20s, areas in along the American border may soar past the 30C mark. Moisture levels however will be low as dew points will not be able to climb into the teens until the early evening. Sunny skies are expected for the day on Friday however there may be some local haze as smoke from wildfires filters in to the region. Should be less than on Wednesday. \

Friday night: a cold front will be moving into southern Manitoba during the overnight. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected the HRRR is showing a line of thunderstorms moving into western Manitoba during the overnight. However not all models are latching on to this idea, if severe storms move into western Manitoba during the overnight they will have the potential to produce marginal to large size hail with strong winds and heavy rain. However there is limited moisture which may inhibit the chances for any thunderstorms to develop, weather severe weather develops is still unknown at this point. General MUCape is expected to be between 800 to 1500 with dew point temperatures in the mid teens. If thunderstorms are able to develop ahead of the cold front there will be the potential for large hail damaging winds intense lightning and a small chance that some of these storms could rotate. Confidence on severe weather is low at this point however we will update you if there are any model changes throughout the day on Friday. Temperatures will likely drop into the high teens and low 20's, with areas in the southeast part of Manitoba the warmest. 

Saturday: It generally drier day should occur on The day Saturday if there remains any convection in the morning should clear by the afternoon, sunny skies are likely on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s in southwestern Manitoba and mid to high 20s in southeastern Manitoba. Smoke will begin to build back in to southern Manitoba on saturday evening, behind the front. This will be brief as another wave of southerly winds move in on Sunday. Saturday night, increasing cloud with some cooler temperatures are likely with lows in the mid teens are a possibility. 

Sunday: Warmer weather is likely with a return of high temperatures in the low to mid 20's. Increasing cloud is possible on the day Sunday with some showers possible towards the later half of the day. Overnight more cloud is likely with lows in the low teens in the west and mid to high teens in the east. 

The Week Ahead: Warmer weather is likely during the week with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms as a heat dome sits off to our south and the storm track sits over our region. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's are likely with lows in the teens, some days especially earlier in the week may see temperatures in the high teens for highs and low teens for lows. Next week the moisture leftover from Hillary (Hurricane hitting southwest USA will start filling into the jet stream next week impacting us likely. I’ll have more details about that next blog on Monday. 

NEW BLOG UPDATE FOR THE WEEKEND COMING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ;-)

 For Those wondering when I will be coming back online, dont worry I will be back online with you all on the day Thursday with a updated weather blog in video formation. Or plain old blog. Stay safe out there in the wind folks, and try to stay inside with the smoke that is forecast. ;-)

Unsettled weather returns, with shower and thunderstorm chances. Seasonal temperatures continues as well.

 Southern Manitoba and the region as a whole will finally be able to recieve more moisture as a strong to moderate jet stream will be sitting over the canadian prairie provinces, what this will do is increase the moisture prospects for areas that desperately need rain. There will be some periods of thunderstorms as well. Temperatures for the period however will run near normal to slightly below normal. This blog will cover the forecast into Thursday. 

****I also have some exciting NEWS I run a radioshow on CKUW 95.9FM in Winnipeg every Tuesday at 9PM, based in winnipeg it is a electronic music focused radioshow but the music is definitely worth giving a listen to. Please share with as many people as you can if you are looking for some good dance music***

Tonight (Left): A cold front will linger over the prairie provinces into central Manitoba, there currently is a severe thunderstorm watch for areas of central Manitoba as I write this. Tonight there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms ocassionally occurring mainly in areas of the parklands into the interlakes and the red river valley as the cold front begins to move south.Into the overnight and additional batch of precipitation could sneak into western portions of Manitoba, with a chance of broad moderate rainfall and embedded thunderstorms. Towards the early morning hours there will be the chance for a risk of thunderstorms especially areas along the trans canada highway south to the american border. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Tuesday (Left: Image of thunderstorms on Tuesday morning in southern Manitoba): Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the early morning hours and mid to late morning as the cold front swings south, then another round of possible showers may move through behind the convection in the morning. These storms are not forecasted to be severe though some marginally severe hail is possible. A general 2 to 5mm can be expected in areas that see rain. Cloudy skies should clear come the afternoon hours with temperatures by the afternoon reaching the mid 20's, some areas in the region seeing highs in the upper teens especially in the lakes regions. 

Tuesday Night: A generally calmer night is likely behind the cold front, a northerly wind will likely end up being present with clear skies and some occasional cloudcover. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid teens, some ares in the parklands and in the interlakes areas may see lows below 10C. There is a chance though that the models are overdoing the cool overnight lows. We will keep you updated, hopefully there isnt a risk for any frost. 

Wednesday: Another chance at unsettled weather comes on the day Wednesday, when a warm front and frontal system moves into southeastern saskatchewan there a small line of showers and rumbles of thunder may sneak into extreme western and southwestern Manitoba however it may completely miss the region and may move into north Dakota and western Montana instead. Regardless mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the high teens and low 20's. 

Wednesday Night: A low pressure system will approach the region and this one more than likely will approach the region bringing a really good chance for some weel needed rain. A swath of showers will more than likely move through the overnight in areas of southwestern Manitoba, the parklands and areas of the red river valley. They will persist into the morning hours. No thunderstorms are forecast however. Overnight lows look likely to drop into the low to mid teens in the east and west with areas inbetween seeing lows in the high single digits for the red river valley. 

Second Half of The Week: Confidence seems lower on terms of the overall upper level pattern. There will be another chance for showers and thunderstorms on the day thursday and friday.  There will be another chance for 10-20mm of rain possible as advertised by the GDPS, some of this could be thunderstorms as well. Highs for the second half of the week remain cooler than average, with only values again which is more typical of september at about near 20C or slightly above that. Overnight lows will more than likely remain in that same