Update on the AO and Sea Surface Temperatures

While I was browsing through my sites I found this AO Index from and I decided create a writeup on it here it is: After half a month of below seasonal temperatures brought on by the Negative AO, we are now seeing it return to the positive side about (+1) AO.(See AO index to the left). This will allow all of the cold air to be locked up in the arctic rather than be pushed down south into our region. All in part due to a strong arctic jet stream and higher air pressure that will help keep all of the cold air locked up in the arctic. This means that the overall trend for our part of the province will be above seasonal weather and an increased chance for precipitation. In other areas across North America the pattern will be different wetter weather can be expected in Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia. While the states could undergo drier conditions and a reprieve from the recent storm systems that have gone through the West. As for the rest of Canada cold conditions can be expected in Newfoundland with higher than normal snowfall amounts.While Quebec,Ontario,Saskatchewan,Alberta,Manitoba, and British Columbia can expect above normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts.

(Left: The Difference between positive and negative AO)







As for the Sea Surface Temperatures we are remaining on the La Nina side of things (see sea surface index to the left) and are pinpointing over the next few weeks and into the spring months we could see a return to Neutral conditions. This will effect our weather pattern by having times of cold and warm periods going with a mix of moist and dry conditions. An example would be 2008 that I can remember when our overall weather pattern was a mix of dry and wet weather. Although the La Nina we are having now will be affected dramatically by the positive AO. Check out this page for details on forecasts and conditions on sea surface temperatures:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml 

Back To Seasonable Weather as our Snow Drought Continues

(Top Left: 2012 winter snowbanks, Bottom Left: 2011 winter snowbanks From Winnipeg Free Press) 

After a week of unseasonably cold weather we will now be welcomed with warmer and more seasonable weather for this time of year, as the area of arctic high pressure moves east towards the Atlantic provinces. Temperatures will rise towards the minus single digits for the middle of the week and maybe even close to the freezing mark on Wednesday. The main story of the coming weeks will be the continuning snow drought. All weather models suggest the main areas of precipitation being far away from the Province of Manitoba either all the way up north, or all the way down south. Snowfall has been rare this winter for Winnipeg and The RRV unless you go north, overall we have had well below normal precipitation for the past couple months. From the beginning of winter (Dec 22) all the way through to (Feb 12) we have had about 48 cm of snow, compare it to last year this time where we had 116.6cm of snow.This time last year we were preparing for a major flooding scenario, this year a potential drought.
(Some of the data was taken from Rob's Blog)

(Right: Brett Andersons ECMWF Weekly model


As For the coming weeks expect a few odd cold days, mixed in with several warm periods. Although the Weekly ECMWF model is pointing towards an early start to spring with very warm weather into the beginning of march, as the AO switches over to postive. Who knows spring may just be around the corner. Stay Tuned I'll have my spring outlook coming up in mid march as from the help of Theweathernetwork...........

Back to Cold Weather!

(Left: GEM-GLB surface analysis forecast 96hr Friday Feb 10th,2012)

After a nice few days with warm temperatures across the prairies, expect a change to cooler than normal weather conditions for the beginning of this week.

A cold front is expected to swing south over the province tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing with it a chance for some light and local blowing snow across the south part of the province. With the passage of the cold front by Monday afternoon skies will clear and winds will shift towards the north, it could become quite strong (60km/h at times), that will aid in cooling our temperatures throughout the day.Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we see temperatures that will be colder with high windchill values for the end of this week and into the weekend with nice conditions. The arrival of a high pressure system will promote the cold temperatures, as it sits sit over the prairies for a few days. This will allow for our temperatures to fall well below normal. Expect it to clear out by the beginning of next week, giving us a chance to finally get back to our normal pacific weather that we have been experiencing all winter. Till then you will have to brave the cold!

Stay up to date on how cold the weather will get here.......

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

Ground Hog Day Predictions

Find Out What the Groundhogs had to say today, are we in for an early spring?http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/story/2012/02/02/mb-willow-woodchuk-ground-hog-spring-winnipeg.html

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible in The Plains Tomorrow!

Details on the potential outbreak for tomorrow,have a look!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1415-severe-weather-22-23-much-needed-rain-for-the-plains-coming-who-stole-the-dominator

And

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Another Night of Fog and Low Visibilty, More Warm Weather On the horizon

With a Combination of warm snow cover, light winds, high humidity and clear skies we can expect another round of fog, that has pretty much been the same scenario over the past couple of days for much of the Red River Valley and Winnipeg. Areas of dense fog with near zero visibility at times are expected to develop late this evening and continue through till Friday Morning. Although with increasing clouds tonight ahead of a frontal system the fog may not be as bad as the past two nights. Overall fog is still expected to develop.Even though the fog has been a cause for traffic problems it seems to be the creator of these picturesque trees or what we call "hoarfrost"
Just take a look at this picture I snapped outside my house this morning what a beauty eh?
Expect these scenes to become a reality over the next few days as the fog will aid in keeping these beautiful formations, so if you haven't got the chance to take a picture, you are not quite out of luck yet.
Expect an end to the foggy conditions by Sunday, by then a ridge in the jetstream will form across the prairies allowing for a more southerly flow, that in turn could push our temperatures up to record breaking territory. The warmup won't last long though, with another possible push of cold air by next week.

January 2012 ends as the 3rd warmest on record!

It has been a warm and very dry one one here in Winnipeg and across Manitoba this January, even though La Nina is still going full power, a strong Jet Stream is aiding and keeping the flow of warm air into our province.

So how did we fare? Well we came in as the third warmest January on record with an average daily high temperature of about -6C, while the actual average high temperature for January is about -13C. The beginning of January did feature a great start with warm weather from the 1st all the way through to the 13th, followed by a brief cold spell with another warm spell before we got hit by a huge blast of arctic air from the 16th to the 21st. Temperatures in this period were in between -15C and -24C.The month of January ended with warm weather and some record breaking temperatures, which continued through to the beginning of February. As for snowfall totals the highest we received last month was only about 10cm on the 5th when a quick system brushed by us. On average we were well below normal in getting precipitation, that trend looks to continue.

It has been another story up in Alaska where temperatures in some places have dipped well below -50C in some cases -60C windchills.