Warmer and more humid weather on the way

The past weekend was cooler than average and it was a brutal reality check, but things this week are looking brighter and warmer than what it has been as the ridge of high pressure out west moves in and brings us the spring like warmth. 

  The next few days will feature warmer weather and increasing humidity the day Tuesday will feature high temperatures in the low 20's with sunshine. Winnipeg should be around 24C all as the ridge of high pressure sits over our area from the south. Wednesday will be a different story there will be a chance of showers but very slim at best and there could be some cloudcover depending on how much we get there could be cooler temperatures. However if there is none then our temperatures will be able to get to about twenty five to twenty seven degrees. 

Long Range: Increasingly Warm and humid with thunderstorm chances


   The longer range appears to be fairly interesting, there is a good chance of increasing humidity, higher dewpoints, and warmer temperatures. Altogether that will mean hot and humid conditions with humidex values possibly above 30C. A notable feature for the long range there appears to be a chance for thunderstorms on the May Long weekend, as a trough of low pressure moves into the increasingly hot and humid airmass. Points are for a possible severe weather event of some kind but it is too early to fine tune the details. It is something I will monitor over the coming days and update you on Twitter and on here with a new blog post on Wednesday evening and Friday Morning.

Warm Dry Weather returns, Possible thunderstorms or severe thunderstorms for the end of the week

The warm dry weather has returned and is giving southern Manitoba a taste of summer like temperatures. Over the coming days our temperatures will resemble that of June and July without the high humidity levels although some still in place. The next few days will be perfect to get outside and enjoy either bike riding or even BBqing.

Warmest day of the week on Thursday and Friday inbetween 20 and 30C, even slightly above 30C.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the week into the weekend where we reach the high 20's., high temperatures on the day on Tuesday will be a fairly warm one with high temperatures inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees. About 17C for Winnipeg Tuesday and 19C for Brandon. Tuesday night overnight lows will be inbetween 0 and 10C for most. It gets even warmer on Wednesday out in western Manitoba where the high temperatures will be inbetween twenty and twenty five degrees whereas the temperatures will be inbetween fifteen and twenty degrees out in eastern Manitoba. The warm temperatures on Wednesday out west will be moving further east by the evening hours, by around supper time Winnipeg should be in the twenty to twenty five degree range. Overnight lows on Wednesday night will not drop at all that much only getting to about inbetween ten and fifteen celcius in the Red River Valley, but about fifteen to twenty degrees in Western Manitoba.

NAMs Weather Model Output for Thursday, showing some thunderstorm potential. Though not too impressive.

First severe weather threat of the year is possible on the day Friday, depending on if the front goes through in the afternoon or evening. GDPS GEM GLB model.

Thursday and Friday will be an interesting day temperatures will be getting near and possibly above thirty degrees for much of the province, it is very hard to tell how humid we will get as the models are having a tough time agreeing on things. The GEM GLB is showing humidity levels around 40% (Dewpoints of 10 to 15C) on Thursday in Winnipeg, and near 50% on Friday (Dewpoints of 15 to 20C). . Whereas the NAM has 20% humidity and over 30C on Thursday. No idea how Friday is shaping up with the NAM as it does not go that far out. I am leaning on the GEM GLB solution at the moment considering the GDPS is more accurate in short term forecasts as it is produced by EC. That means it will feel more humid and will add to thunderstorm potential. Lets have a look at the ingredients using the MIST scale Brad V. created.

Thursday.....
M- Good to marginal amounts of moisture on Thursday. Dewpoints of 10 to 15C. My Forecast 14C
I- Looking at around 700 to 2,000 J/Kg of CAPE -6 to -8 LI, if daytime heating is sufficent
S- Weak and very limited
T- Lake Breeze, Warm Front

Friday:
M- Dewpoints of 15 to 20C, my forecast 18C
I- Large levels of instability CAPE of 1,500 to 3,000 J/Kg. Highest in the Red River Valley Lifted indicies of -6 to -10. Highest in Red River Valley.
S- Shear is decent to promote organized thunderstorms
T- Trigger is the cold front which will go through in the evening hours, may be enough to break the cap.

What does that mean for thunderstorms? Given the ingredients in place Thursday could have some pop up thunderstorms along a warm front or lake breeze, there could be some marginal hail with them. As for Friday that is a completely different story temperatures and humidity will be near or slightly above thirty degrees, as well as a approaching cold front from the north. It could create our first potential severe weather threat of the year (depending if it passes by late afternoon or evening) there will be a potential for scattered severe thunderstorms or a severe squall line of some kind. The threat could involve large hail, damaging winds, intense/frequent lightning as well as heavy rainfall. It is still quite far out and a lot can change between now and then but it is still definitely something worth watching. I will keep the comments section updated and post tweets on Twitter about how the threat evolves. A brief cool down (high teens) is expected for the day on Saturday before we warm up to above seasonal for the rest of the weekend and next week (above twenty degrees).

Another day of warm weather leads to cooler conditions for the remainder of the week

Today will be our last day of warm conditions as a cold front slides south into southern Manitoba, from northern Manitoba. Temperatures will drop dramatically behind this cold front. So enjoy the warmth well it stays.

As the cold front drives through late this afternoon and early evening there may be a few showers and thundershowers that could develop along and ahead of the front. Most should weaken around midnight. Light and breezy north winds will develop behind this front, making our low temperatures drop to slightly above zero with areas in the northern interlakes and westman getting below zero. Winnipeg will be around 3 degrees overnight.

The rest of the week will be cooler than average. High temperatures will be in the high single digits for eastman and the Red River Valley, whereas there will be mid double digits out west. Little in the way of cloudcover and light north winds for the day Thursday, overnight lows will be slightly below zero and even colder up north where lows can be expected in the mid minus single digits. Winnipeg will be near 10C and have a low of -2C. Brandon will be near about 13C and a low of minus two celcius.

Friday looks like an interesting day weatherwise, a frontal boundary will move across southern Manitoba bringing a chance of showers and weak thunderstorms. Although under a mix of sun and cloudy skies. High temperatures will be in the mid to high single digits out in the Red River Valley and eastman, with warmer temperatures out west experiencing high temperatures in the low double digits. Brandon should have a high temperature of 11C on Friday, with Winnipeg at about 8C. Lows again just shy above zero at 2C in Winnipeg and 5C in Brandon.



Long Range:

GEFS Ensemble showing warmth returning on the 28th of April, warm weather looks to setup beyond that timeframe as a zonal flow of air from the pacific kicks in. Watch the loop here.... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

NAEFS showing above normal temperatures returning April 28th through the 5th of May, possibly beyond that timeframe.

The weekend looks like a cool/seasonable but sunny weekend, our temperatures return to seasonal values for the start of next week through the week. Signs though of a warming trend are starting up by the 28th of April as a more zonal flow looks to setup. This may be the start of a more sustained warmup.

Warm weather is here, with the return of wet weather

(Information compiled from Rob's Blog www.robsobsblog.blogspot.ca and Environment Canada. As well as some various weather models.) Today was an exceptionally warm day, high temperatures soared into the mid to high teens today as a welcome pattern change took over and allowed westerlies to push in warmer air from the pacific. Things are about to change though as a spring storm system arriving on Friday will bring in moist and warm air along with heavy amounts of rainfall for much of southern Manitoba over the latter part of the week into the weekend. As much as 70mm is possible in places.

Thunderstorm potential as depicted on the NAM models for tonight.

The night ahead tonight will offer clear conditions early on, however as we get into the late evening, overnight, early morning hours there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The risk will start out in the southwest part of the province in the late evening, excluding the Dauphin and Swan River areas, into the Red River Valley overnight into the early morning. There will be 2 batches of precipitation one drifting in from North Dakota, the other coming in from Saskatchewan. Those will be showers and could offer thunderstorms into the morning hours.



Thunderstorms are possible Thursday Night into Friday

The day Thursday will start showery and possibly thundery, it should clear out by mid morning. The sun will shine and it will be even warmer as the warm front moves in from the south. High temperatures will be in the mid to high teens possibly above 20C in areas of the southwest. Humidity will increase as well as cloudcover on Thursday. "Setup is better for a few more thunderstorms to fire up overnight Friday into Friday morning along an 850 mb warm front that will be pushing up from the MB/ND border. Possibility of a line of tstorms moving up from the MB/ND border early Friday pushing north through the morning with heavy downpours". Rob says. Summary: Expect rainfall to begin late Thursday evening into Thursday night and Friday morning with thunderstorms.

Position of fronts here will dictate temperatures on Friday

GDPS showing temperatures in the mid to high teens to possibly above 20C in the Red River Valley Friday, we'll see.

Friday is a different story the thunderstorms that go through in the morning hours will turn into an area of rain for most areas north of the warm front. The day Friday will be cooler than average for areas of southwestern Manitoba and the interlakes (unless models change drastically) with high temperatures in the mid to high single digits and rainfall with thunderstorms embedded. Different story goes for areas of southeastern Manitoba where a warm front will be positioned, models are still having a tough time figuring out its position. It could roughly lie from Crystal City to Bissett, though some models are showing it just north of Winnipeg, and others slightly south of Winnipeg. Where it ends up will make a big difference in temperature. If it ends up being south of Winnipeg the warmth would end up in the Southern Red River Valley, and Winnipeg would see heavy rains and cool temperatures Friday. If it were to end up north of Winnipeg the weather would be warmer and more humid as well as drier, with better thunderstorm potential. At the moment the GDPS is showing it about thirty or forty km north of Winnipeg and that means Warmer and more humid weather. 

Rainfall amounts as per the GDPS, may change over the next 2 days. Generally about 50mm expected. Will Update

Saturday will be a soaker with heavy rainfall as the system moves east into NW Ontario. Rumbles of thunder are still possible, though not as big as what Thursday night and Friday will offer. Temperatures will be in the high single digits to above 10C on Saturday for most, with the best of the warmer weather in Minnesota. Models are having a tough time resolving the placement of the heaviest amounts still, as well as figuring out how much could fall. I will be updating things in the comments below. As for the consenus on the amounts at the moment the system could drop as much as 50 to 70mm when all is said and done. So have your sump pump ready, as the ground is still frozen quite a bit. Sunday will be a much cooler day with rain still falling, and possibly snow 10cm of it in the southwestern part of MB along with temperatures in the high single digits. Just a note: Special Weather Statements are in place for this weather event go on and have a look at this website..... http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb

Stay Tuned for Updates on Twitter and in the comments!!!

Spring Outlook 2016 and a look at our summer.

Last Week of March there will be an increased area of cool weather from the arctic, however considering there will be a very small snowpack our temperatures will not budge that much. The Good news is that it will stay above zero for the most part and likely lead to a lot of melting in areas.

With the El Nino Weakening and still having an impact on the country this year it is very likely that our spring temperatures will stay near to quite above average.

Looking back on previous Trans Nino years can help us find out what the weather will be like this year...

April 1983 was a very cold April by normal standards, especially the first half of the month however there were major improvements once the second half of the month came by temperatures in Winnipeg were soaring into the double digits and into the twenties. Thunderstorms were reported in the middle of April. About 4.4cm of snow was reported the whole month of April, last snowfall that year was in late May. 2.3mm of rain.



April of 1998 was actually quite warm compared to other Trans Nino years, temperatures were able to soar into the double digits the first week of April through into May with some minor cool downs. Thunderstorms also occurred in Mid April as well in 1998. No snowfall was reported in the month's of April/May at Winnipeg airport. 38.6mm fell in April at the airport.



April of 2003 was a dry one and we stayed mainly seasonal, but there were a few days where our temperatures were in the twenties, thank's to a warm front that brought warm air into the province that day. Thunderstorms did not occur this year until late May. However about 15cm of snow fell in April thanks to cool temperatures. 17.3mm of rain fell the whole month.

May of 1983 featured above normal temperatures along with 29mm of rain which is below normal and a trace of snow.


May of 1998 was a wet and rainy month with 100mm of rain the whole month, May 10th was the only day in the month with a thunderstorm. Temperatures were seasonal for the month of May.


May of 2003 experienced temperatures in the high teens for the start of the month then they became very warm for the end of the month with high's in the mid to high 20's. 78.5mm of rain fell in the whole month with one storm day on May 29th.


June of 1983 was a wet month with 139.2mm of rain falling in the whole month, and there were several days of thunderstorms the days of the 13, 19, 20, 21, 23. Temperatures were above average the whole month as well.

June of 1998 was seasonal in terms of temperature lots of more than 20 degree temperatures, rainfall was below average with only 2 days of thunderstorms on the 19th and the 26th. 59.5mm f rain fell the whole month.

June of 2003 had above normal temperatures with storms on the 6, 15, and 28. 42.5mm fell the whole month.

If we lose our snowpack early there will be warmer temperature's sooner, this is the more probable outlook for the month of April.  I'm going for middle of April when our snowpack will be gone. Consensus for April is really tough right now because. Models differ on snowfall in the coming weeks which would effect our overall temperatures. However as models were predicting a warm April they appear to be going in the opposite direction, now showing bouts of arctic air flowing in. Whereas the spring outlooks before were going for a warm April. Here's the thing if our snowpack is gone our temperatures will remain above zero to ten degrees even in arctic air.

April

 I'm going for a more cooler bias for April, however our snowpack will be very small if we see any snow. We will have periods of warmer weather intertwined in with the cooler weather. As for precipitation I am calling for a near to slightly above average considering over the next few weeks into the month of April we are likely to see systems slide through the area as the flow becomes more zonal for the month of May. There may be some early spring snowfalls but they won't stay long. rainfall and thunderstorms look more likely in the middle of April.


May

For May much above average temperatures with a zonal flow and some ridging, periods of cooler temperatures are expected. Near to above average precipitation as a west to east flow at times transitions into a southwestern flow. "Things look to start getting wet in the middle of the month" according to some folk's from NWS Grand Forks via Dan Riddle, We could experience our first severe weather outbreaks at the start to the middle of the month. Tornadoes could start becoming common mid to late May.

June

June Above average temperatures and depending on how much ingredients we can receive in the early summer season for severe weather we either could end up with a little amount of rainfall or a lot. At the moment I'm leaning towards a above average amount of rainfall through the month although we could end up with a lot more depending how big our severe weather season gets. Southwest and western flow will bring in low pressure systems through the area on multiple occasions. Possibly enough thunderstorms to get our precipitation totals high enough to cause local flooding. This will all happen as a possible drought could be taking place in North Dakota, we will be lucky enough to be along the primary stormtrack this year which will bring in lots of moisture. Further north and east you go the gulf airmass will be limited resulting in less amounts of moisture and thunderstorms heading into summer considering most of it's presence will be in the states and southern Canada. However that doesn't mean it won't make it that far up north, it still will likely stream into those areas at one point or another.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Showing a warm Gulf of Mexico, which effects our weather here in Spring/Summer

Severe Weather Season Spring into Summer
Spring of 2016 is looking like it could very well be an active season considering how active it has been previous springs along with global warming. It is expected that our severe thunderstorm season will start early this year. The states have already been experiencing a very active season, it is usually a good indicator of what our spring and summer will be like here. A good indicator of our  severe weather season also is the gulf of mexico ocean temperatures, if it's cooler than average expect a less active season. However if the temperature anomalies are average or above average expect a busier or more severe season than usual. At the moment it is sitting around 24C that is average. Though considering it is that warm so early in the year we are looking at an active season , as the real spring heat hasn't arrived yet. Once it heats up more fuel for severe weather outbreaks will be added and it will add to the energy for bigger storms that will affect us into the summer.  Add to the fact that various weather models are hinting at above normal preciptation returning to our area mid to late spring. You mix in the heat along with the low pressure systems that will cause the precipitation will result in increased risks of severe weather. Multiple southwest flow events look to affect us which draws in warmer more humid air from the gulf of Mexico and severe weather of course. The threat area will be in the northern interlakes by June. If we see tornado events they could be a lot stronger because tornadoes in El Nino Years are usually the weakest, transitioning into a La Nina does usually cause stronger tornadoes. There is a link between warm ocean water in the Pacific and drier air for tornadoes to use in the summer months, which usually results in weaker tornadoes. However when you have cooler ocean waters it does usually create more moisture and more of a temperature difference to work with, which in turn makes them stronger. Looking at what the CANsips model is pointing at which is run here in Canada, they are forecasting above normal precipitation into June, July and August. At the moment heading into what could be a wet summer with the fact that we are going into a La Nina year it could very well be an active season considering La Nina years offer stronger tornadoes and thunderstorms. 2007 was a La Nina summer, the Elie Tornado and Dauphin Hailstorm occurred that year.






What was it like in previous summers?

1983 was a dry summer with only a few mm over 100mm falling the whole months of July and August. Thunderstorms occurred on July 30, August 2, 24, 27,29. Temperatures were above 30 degrees in Winnipeg for 27 days.

1998 Temperatures were slightly above normal for July with a few days above 30C, while August had virtually every day above 25C. Precipitation was just over 100mm for the 2 months in total. Thunderstorms occurred on July 1,10,12,18,26,27, with 38mm of rainfall together at the end of the month. August had 95mm of rain the whole month, with thunderstorms occurring on the 2,12,22,26,27.

2003 Temperatures were slightly above average with 44.5mm of rain falling the month of July. Storms occurred on the 6,11,14,1,29,30,31 in July. Temperatures in August were seasonal with 72mm of rain falling the whole month of August. 11 days above 30C occurred. Storms occurred on the 20th, 25, 27 and 28. 8 hours of storms occurred on the 27 and 28th.

Summer 2016

Summer outlook

Looking ahead to summer of 2016 it looks like that there will be above seasonal temperatures through the summer with average to slightly above average rainfall, as in past few summers there have been higher than average amounts of rainfall with global warming. As with years where an El Nino has been weakening there has been average amounts of rainfall, but taking into account how global warming is increasing rainfall amounts it is probable we will see higher amounts of precipitation considering various weather models are hinting at that happening this summer. Keep in mind there will be limited moisture for heavy rainfalls as you go further east and north considering gulf moisture will primarily be in the southern half of the province and united states. It won't be a consistent thing, it still will impact those areas on occasion just not as much as the south. A mainly west to east flow with some ridging is possible, but one of the models indicates a southwest flow steering systems in from the west coast of the united states bringing in big severe weather events. Severe weather is expected to worsen as we head into summer with more tornado events and severe weather outbreaks, the odds of worse tornadoes increase due to La Nina taking over and offering more volatility in the atmosphere due to temperature differences in the ground and atmosphere.


Any questions feel free to ask me...

                 Temperatures Precipitation

Dauphin Above Normal Above Normal

Winnipeg Above Normal Above Normal

Brandon Above Normal Above Normal

Emerson Above Normal Above Normal

Steinbach Above Normal Above Normal

Storm system set to impact southern Manitoba

The rest of the day today will be followed by very warm and sunny conditions as an area of low pressure arrives from the west which will be the main storm to start the week. Cooler weather will arrive for midweek. Interesting weather is ahead for the next few days for sure.

Thunderstorms possible overnight on Monday

The night ahead will be quite unsettled ahead of a approaching low pressure system there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the night in southwestern Manitoba as an area of rain moves in from northern North Dakota, ahead of the rain the Red River Valley will be a chance for thunderstorms to develop with a plume of 1,000J/kg MUCAPE through the overnight. Lift should be sufficient for storms to develop, current indications are that a line of showers will develop with thunderstorms embedded in them in eastern north Dakota into the portage la prairie area around 4am time. They will spread east northeast and strengthen into a line and likely impact the red river valley around sunrise. Or it will just be a rainmaker. Overnight lows tonight in the high single digits for the southwestern half of the province, and lows in the mid single digits for the parklands into the interlakes, red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg a low of about 5C.

Rain potential through the day Tuesday, this model shows the most rainfall amounts 25mm+

Looking ahead to the day Tuesday the thunderstorms will clear out in the early afternoon, replaced by rainfall in the day. Models are having a tough time deciding on the weather in the province, at the moment the GEM model is showing all rain in the Red River Valley, whereas the NAM and GFS are keeping the main rainfall east of the red river valley. However it does depend on where the rain's deformation zone takes place, if it moves further west there will be the good chance of seeing a very decent rainfall in Winnipeg and the red river valley. The consensus at the moment will be for a good soaking of rainfall for the day on Wednesday with amounts of 5 to 15mm, possibly even higher for the day on Tuesday in convection. Rain will change over to snow in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba and slowly drifting eastwards in the overnight timeframe, amounts will be from about 2 to 4cm for most. Not a lot of accumulations either. Lows will be in the low single digits near zero, so snow should melt.


Wednesday will have left over snow and flurries with cloudcover mixed in with sun, high temperatures will be in the low single digits and light winds out of the northwest. It will be a much drier day than Tuesday was. Clearing will take over on Wednesday night.

Long Range
It looks like we remain in a cooler weather pattern, with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal. Not as cold as what it could be due to the fact that our snowpack is pretty much gone. High temperatures will as a result stay near to slightly above zero or even closer to the mid single digits. Not a lot of warmth coming in like what we saw on the day Monday, until next month possibly.

Cool Night Ahead Before Some Potential Record Smashing Warmth Arrives

Our day today was a bit cloudy and cool thanks to remnants of yesterday's system, but now we are in the clear it looks like southern Manitoba is now headed for an extended period of above normal temperatures. That's right no more cold weather to complain about.

Let The Heat Begin!

The night ahead tonight will be marked with cloudy skies clearing to partly cloudy skies tonight, making our temperatures cooler than what they should be overnight. Winds will be light out of the north, I expect that Winnipeg will reach an overnight low of minus eight and somewhere around minus 6 to minus 10 in the Red River Valley whereas areas out by Melita and southwest Manitoba will be closer to zero likely minus one or two overnight. Further north from Dauphin to Bissett could be influenced more by the arctic air spilling out resulting in temperatures more near minus 12 or minus 13. Temperatures will quickly recover to start the day Thursday.


Thursday expect any lingering cloudcover to dissipate by morning, sunshine should take over during the late morning hours. Temperatures will finally get above zero degrees and a few places may see high temperatures in the mid teens especially in the southwest part of the province. I'm calling for a high temperature of plus 7C in Brandon, and a high of 15C in Melita. As for areas in the riding mountain areas it will be cooler as the snow there will be reflecting much of the sunlight, high's will only get as warm as 5 or 6C. Areas in Eastman especially in the whiteshell areas will be cool with highs near 7C. Winnipeg on the other hand could reach high's close to ten degrees my high is about 9C, that would potentially break Winnipeg's record high temperature of 6.7C set in 1902. On Thursday night Winnipeg will only drop to a temperature of 6C.


Looking ahead to Friday that is when the real warmth will arrive! High temperatures will be in the low to mid teens across the south the problem is that with the weather models is that they are showing the warmth staying south of the Winnipeg area but I think it will be much further north. As a result expect highs inbetween 5 and 10C from the interlakes into the Dauphin Areas and Eastman. Much warmer weather further south towards Winnipeg and southwestern Manitoba, where I expect temperatures to go over ten degrees, likely in the city itself 10 to 15C. The airport may be a tad cooler given the fact there is still snow on the ground though we could make it to the record high of 12.8C set in 2012 if we get warm enough. Daytime high on Friday could be 13C in Winnipeg and 15C for Brandon, but best bet is 12C for Winnipeg. Overnight lows on Friday will drop once again only slightly above zero for most of the province, setting up for a warm Saturday.


Why are temperatures staying above zero at night? It's because most models at the moment are picking up on the idea that the dewpoints will be above zero as well through the day and night, with that being said it will or could possibly keep temperatures warm enough overnight to break previous minimum temperature records. The minimum temperature record in Winnipeg is 0.6C on Thursday night and 2.8C on Friday night both in 1878. We could also break the record dewpoint temperature of 6.0C set in 2012 on Thursday. With dewpoints above zero, snow melt is definitely possible in huge amounts combined with highs in the mid teens. WE COULD BE SNOW FREE BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK!!!


Long Range: Warmth Continues

Heading into the long range the NAEFS model is still picking up on above normal temperatures staying with us through until the 23rd,, or even longer. As our weather pattern continues to offer warm weather flooding in. That means as mentioned our warmth might be able to melt all the snow away by the 17th, high temperatures will be in the 0 to 15C range over the coming weeks as well. #GoAwaySnow