Heat and humidity return with showers and thunderstorms .

 Southern sections of Manitoba are in store for again another round of heat and humidity, it will be brief as a cold front is expected to bring in a northwesterly flow back in to our area on Tuesday. However a chance of showers and thunderstorms will hang around for the first part of the week, there’s also a lot more heat on the way later this week as a ridge moves in. Find out more where and when to expect thunderstorms and the heat as well in this weeks blog. 

(Above: Today’s warmer than average high temperatures shown on Nexlab’s temperature graphic in Farenheit of course). 

Monday: Today will be the start of a trend of hotter and more humid air that will sit over our region. Today will be hotter and more humid than over the weekend, dew point temperatures here will soar into the mid to high teens, there’s a chance that areas with more crop growth surprisingly could have dewpoints up to 20-22C. A weak cold front will be moving through the inter lakes and southern Manitoba today bringing the risk of thunderstorms some may be severe,  however due to a lack of forcing there will be minimal development of any thunderstorms. If they do form, due to the high amounts of CAPE (Thunderstorm Energy) they may become severe briefly, unfortunately due to the lack of shear they will not be able to organize themselves enough to last for long periods so pulse storms look possible. High temperatures for today will rise into the mid to high 20’s, except for the interlakes and the parklands in southwestern and western Manitoba where highs will only reach the high teens to low 20’s.  

Monday Night (Above): A fairly calm night is expected with fog possible, as clearing occurs and overnight temperatures reaches the dew point temperatures humidity will reach 100% this will bring in a risk for wide spread fog the main concerns are around the American border at Emerson and spotty sections in western Manitoba. Fog should clear out by the morning hours shortly after sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens with the cooler lows in the interlake regions. 

Tuesday: During the day another cold front will be sinking south and this will be the culprit for showers and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon especially across southwestern sections of Manitoba, guidance is hinting at an area of showers and thunderstorms forming in western Manitoba and the parklands moving east reaching the red river valley by the time around noon. These storms look to remain non severe, with only a very slight risk of a marginally severe storm. Another batch of storms looks to develop in western Manitoba by late afternoon , the interesting thing about this system is that it will not be feeding off of much storm energy. Only meager 500 to 1,500J/Kg of CAPE is possible with the highest along the American border. This means that if storms form they won’t last long and won’t have that same punch as we had a few weeks ago. There isn’t a high supercell composite level (which measures all the atmospheric conditions present for supercells) here which means the risk for severe thunderstorms is quite low. There may  be a chance for severe storms if the showers and thunderstorms can wait to hold off until the early afternoon but that still is yet to be seen. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in southwestern Manitoba but they will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the eastern part of Manitoba before cooling by late afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms should clear by the evening hours, again depending on how warm it gets there could be a severe thunderstorm or two especially near the American border. Anyways temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the low to mid teens with the coldest of the air south of lake Winnipeg and out in western Manitoba.

Wednesday: During the day on Wednesday calmer weather should be around, the only caveat will be a northerly flow in place which will make things a tad cooler than average, temperatures will sit in the low to mid 20’s. 

Wednesday Night: Cooler and quiet conditions persist, with most areas only seeing lows between 10 to 12C, areas further north into the interlakes and the parklands may see lows in the mid teens. 

Second half of the week: Strong signals are in place for a return to milder weather, a northwesterly flow will switch to a westerly to southwesterly flow which will allow for stable calm weather with high pressure in the area, and a return to temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and low temperatures in the low to mid teens. Possible signs of more heat and humidity by the weekend.

SPECIAL FEATURE. Why is it that Storm season is persisting longer than average???!!! Myself I’m actually surprised that storm season is continuing well into late august in previous years storm season quit after the 15-20th, it’s likely because our crop season started late and is continuing well into august I have noticed in recent years the crops would have been done by now. Also we have had a pretty consistent southerly flow in place which adds more humidity to the air. Crops usually allow for more humidity in the air as they hold it in by transpiration. Until crops get harvested and the cold air returns, severe weather may continue into September as it did in 2002,2007,2010,2015,2018,2019 which I remember storms from those years in September. 

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight, unsettled before a calmer second half of the week?

 Our region of Manitoba is likely going to see some unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours, this blog will be shorter than other blogs. Find out what to expect below. 

Tonight: Expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue, with some severe thunderstorms in the interlake regions. Areas in the western half of Manitoba will see a frontal system move in overnight into the morning period, this system will contribute thunderstorms and a very small risk of severe thunderstorms overnight into the morning period. As a trough of low pressure moves through. Models are all over the place on timing and precipitation type, the HRRR is the most conservative with only scattered showers and thunderstorms whereas the RAP (usually the most accurate weather model) has storms in the inter lakes dying down around midnight before storms develop in the southern part of the region of Manitoba. And the NAM which agrees with the RAP has scattered batches of storms moving through southern Manitoba during the overnight. These storms may produce small to moderate hail, and mostly heavy rainfall due to the slow moving nature of these storms. The general consensus is 5 to 25mm of rainfall, possibly more if storms stay over the same area for a long period of time. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, with the cooler air in the west as rainfall happens overnight. 

Thursday: Expect some partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy skies in the morning, as we switch to the backside of the low pressure system another chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon. If we can get enough day time heating some showers and possibly severe thunderstorms could occur, according to John sauder in his daily weather update he mentions from Portage la Prairie east to the Ontario border will have a severe risk. Storms will not be widespread. Temperatures will rise into the high teens and low 20’s, to mid 20’s if the sun can peak out. 

Thursday Night: There may be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms right near the American border, before they move into North Dakota. As the low pressure system the culprit for the stormy weather moves off into Ontario, high pressure will begin to move into the region. There may initially be some cloud cover before clearing overnight except south central Manitoba . Temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens. 

Friday: Another humid and warm day will be on tap for Friday, with temperatures soaring into the mid to high 20’s. It’ll be beautiful unfortunately with dew point temperatures rising into the high teens it will be muggy, this could result in isolated thunderstorms. 

Friday Night: Clear skies are likely with temperatures likely remaining slightly below average with lows dropping into the mid teens and some places a few degrees above 10C. 

The weekend: Calm sunny weather is likely with high temperatures in the mid to high 20’s and lows in the mid to high teens, under high pressure. 

More unstable Weather with showers and thunderstorms

 Once again southern Manitoba will be experiencing some unstable weather conditions, a stationary low pressure system will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba providing multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Although a hot and humid airmass will likely fuel this threat over the coming days. Find out the timing and severity of the storms and when we can expect the pattern to calm. Photo below was taken at 7:08PM. 

Tonight: A stationary low pressure system sitting over southern Manitoba. A warm and unstable airmass will sit over southern sections of Manitoba, a large area of instability will be present over the region with. This will be the catalyst for a severe weather threat this evening. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s across the south today, with dew point temperatures rising into the high teens to low 20’s across the south. Setting up enough moisture for storms later. Looking over the model data Most Unstable Convective Avaliable potential energy appears to be across the south, mainly south of the Manitoba Lakes. As well supercell composites in this area are around 1-4. What all of this means is that there will be thunderstorms this evening with a risk for severe thunderstorms. Areas of concern is the front located over western Manitoba which may create more of an environment for thunderstorms to form in a line, then as noted frequently by the HRRR is a MCV or mesoscale convective vortex which often develops and detaches from the storm system it formed off of. HRRR model wasn’t showing storms forming with this until later in the evening, some storms just developed in south central Manitoba by MacGregor and Austin. I’m expecting that more of the same may happen. There’s also a chance that storms if they form in the southwest they may also move east with the same system, they however may die out by the time they make it to southeast and south central Manitoba but a general risk of thunderstorms are expected overnight especially in south central Manitoba and towards the American border. Thunderstorms should end late overnight. Overnight clearing is possible if storms don’t last into the overnight. Models are dissagreeing still. 

Tuesday: Another possible unstable day weather wise is possible as the same frontal system moves sits over southern sections of Manitoba, however a small high pressure system may inhibit storms from developing. Regardless model data is agreeing on one thing that there will be a risk for scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon some of which may be severe. Not everyone will get a storm.  Dewpoint temperatures will once again rise into the mid to high teens with temperatures rising into the mid to high 20’s 

Tuesday Night: Calmer weather is likely on Tuesday night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies likely. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens. 

Second half of the week: More unstable weather is on tap for the region, temperatures will begin to heat up again on Wednesday with temperatures in the high 20’s  with more heat and humidity coming into the region. More thunderstorms are also likely during the second half of the week. 

Heat and Humidity Return, Say Hello to Thunderstorms and a Severe Weather Risk

 Hello folks, I’m back and I hope your all enjoying your summer holidays. The heat is returning along with the humidity, a ridge has established itself over the Central American plains which is where temperatures have soared well into the mid to high 30C range and some places there have been in the low 40’s. In our region, we’re expecting to experience some of the heat felt south of the border however multiple impulses of low pressure are likely to move through this airmass on the north end of the ridge. Find out what that Leah’s for us below. 

(Above: Temperatures for the day on Saturday, sunny and mild, above average highs expected. Enjoy!)

Tonight: Mostly clear skies and calm weather conditions are expected however, with a stagnant flow in place there will be a chance at fog patches in southern Manitoba with the heaviest of the fog expected in southwestern Manitoba and in the pembina valley. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens tonight with the warmer air likely in the red river valley area.

Thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon especially in the inter lakes regions. (Above). 

Saturday: The weather for Saturday gets slightly interesting, a cold front will be draped west to east over the central part of Manitoba basically the inter lakes parklands, eastern Manitoba and over the middle of the lakes. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s with temperatures in the central inter lakes and far northern parklands seeing highs in the low 20’s. Dewpoint temperatures will soar into the high teens to low 20’s so it will be humid. There’s some indications that during the early part of the afternoon that some thunderstorms will form along this boundary tapping into CAPE or thunderstorm energy of about 1,000 to 2,000Joules/Kg. There’s a risk of severe thunderstorms mainly in the inter lakes and parklands region, less so further south although isolated in nature, they could form anywhere along that boundary best chances are where the higher dewpoints are and south of the cold front situated in the lakes region. Risks would be large hail, possibly up to marble or bigger, damaging wind gusts and torrential rains. Tornadoes are less likely but still possible given the lower helicity values in play which measure shear in upper levels. If you don’t get storms expect mainly a hot and humid sunny afternoon. 

One of the possibility’s for showers or thunderstorms on Saturday night. This model is a convective precipitation map from the NAM 

Saturday Night: During the evening and overnight  the cold front should pass through southern Manitoba, with a chance of thunderstorms some of which may be severe but the risk is lower due to daytime heating loss and cooler weather after sunset. Best risk is in the southwestern part of Manitoba regions into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba overnight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to high teens and low 20’s.

Sunday: Looks to be the nicer days of the weekend with morning showers or thunderstorms in southern Manitoba, partly cloudy skies are expected mostly into the afternoon hours. There’s a chance for some sun to come out during the day time, dew point temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens. There’s also a chance for some isolated severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening in the red river valley as a warm front is located over the inter lakes. Temperatures will rise into the mid 20’s in the inter lakes and parklands and high 20’s in the southern section of Manitoba. 

Sunday Night: Calm weather expected with partly cloudy skies are expected, temperatures in the mid to high teens for most. The exception being the parklands where lows will drop into the low teens. 

The Week Abead: A more unsettled week is possible as a few more low pressure systems tap into what looks to be possibly an active week. Models are still diverging on what could turn out, however the Canadian model at the moment is showing a lot of potential for thunderstorms and or severe weather during the week.Temperatures remaining in the mid to high 20’s and low 30’s with mid to high teens for lows. 

Warm Weather Continues, possible pattern change on the way.

I’m back from a little bit of a break from blogging, much of the region of southern Manitoba has been experiencing a calm and a beautiful weather pattern. This pattern looks to continue, and even though we are in a dry spell there’s no sign of drought for the region which is good news. Read on to find out how long this pattern will last for and how warm it will get later this week. 

Wednesday: Will end up being a gorgeous day weather wise with not a lot in the way of cloud cover expected, a ridge of high pressure will be sitting over our region with temperatures rising into the low to mid 20’s. Our region will continue to be on the northern end of a ridge over the United States. 

Wednesday Night: A calm weather pattern will exist, however a chance that a northwesterly flow aloft will keep our temperatures from being cooler than what were used to, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens with patchy fog expected as cooler air filters over the warmer ground. No precipitation is expected overnight. 

Thursday: Expect a similar day with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies,, there may be a chance for some showers in southwestern Manitoba with some non severe thunderstorms possible. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s with the warmest air especially in the Red River Valley as a southerly flow establishes itself. 

Thursday Night: A large area of southwestern Manitoba will see showers and possible thunderstorms with the potential for up to 5-10mm of rainfall. Mostly cloudy skies are likely early to mid evening, before clearing occurs towards early overnight. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens over the region. 

Friday: Will end up being another calm day weather wise, an approaching cold front from northern Manitoba will begin to sink south with it there’s a chance of some instability that could build into the region with a chance for showers and thunderstorms especially along the cold front in the interlakes and parklands. The NAM is the only model right now not hinting at instability moving into the region, this could be due to the presence of the ridge to the south of us. Regardless I’m expecting mostly cloudy skies in the morning hours with gradual clearing in the afternoon with a mix of sun and cloud likely later in the day. Dew point temperatures have a chance at rising into the upper teens to lower twenties, so it’ll feel humid outside with temperatures rising into the mid to high 20’s with the warmest of the weather happening in southwestern Manitoba. Humidex will feel closer to the low to mid 30’s, a few areas could see humidex closer to 36C. 

Friday Night: A continued chance for showers and thunderstorms is likely, as a weak cold front rides the upper ridge. Best chance of these thunderstorms are in western Manitoba into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. There’s some signs that if any form they may happen in the early evening period. There isn’t really any strong signals for severe weather, some severe thunderstorms are possible but nothing widespread is expected. Clearing is expected after they move out. Temperatures on Friday night will drop into the mid to high teens, milder than the weather we received on Wednesday Night. 

The weekend: This is when the forecast gets complicated even 3 days out, there are signs that a low pressure system could sit over our area on Saturday bringing in a increased risk for thunderstorms some of which may be severe. The second half of the weekend may bring the same but with models disagreeing and poor signals on a potential stationary front moving into our area it’s hard to determine time and impacts. This may contribute to a active week after the weekend. Temperatures on the weekend will rise into the mid to high 20’s on Saturday with overnight lows in the high teens and on Sunday highs will reach the mid to high 20’s with some areas in southern Manitoba reaching the low 30’s. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens as well. The heat looks to return next week with more heat and humidity likely. 

Showers and thunderstorms to kick off the end of the week.

 Southern sections of Manitoba have had a break from severe weather for the last day as well another beautiful day can be expected, unfortunately another low pressure system is likely to move into southern sections of Manitoba tonight into tomorrow morning before a calmer weekend comes around. Find out when and where and when the most significant weather is expected and what you can expect for the weekend. 

Thursday: Expect a sunny warm and mild day as it is already ahead of the low pressure system, I honestly am very happy to have calm weather for once. It’s a completely different story in southern Saskatchewan, a severe weather threat will exist there today with the potential for supercells with tornadoes possibly. Ahead of it a warm and humid airmass will be in place over southern Manitoba with our daytime temperatures rising into the mid to high twenties in south central and southeastern Manitoba. Are we in the southwest could see highs in the low 30’s. 

Thursday Night: An approaching cold front will likely end up moving into southern sections of Manitoba tonight, there’s a possibility that a line of thunderstorms may develop from north to south impacting western portions of Manitoba and southwestern regions after midnight into the overnight. The pembina valley late overnight into early morning south of lake Manitoba with the red river valley seeing thunderstorms by morning. These thunderstorms will have the potential for large hail and damaging winds, with bowing segments possible best risk areas are in western Manitoba into the Winnipeg region and red river valley, I think the above severe weather threat area isn’t far enough east. Tornadoes may be a possibility (but chances are less than 5%) in this line as spin ups could occur with the shear in the region. Models are still differing on the strength of these storms, however enough CAPE in the 2,000 to 2,500J/Kg exists which should give storms the energy to last into the night. Temperatures overnight will not drop much unless you get over a thunderstorm which could drop your lows lower than forecast overnight lows which are expected to be in the high teens and low 20’s. 

(Above:Thunderstorms possible on Friday morning in much of the red river valley, some may be severe.)

Friday: Thunderstorms may persist in the morning and early afternoon hours especially over the red river valley into eastern Manitoba, dewpoint temperatures will rise into the low to mid 20’s in the southeast during the morning. Areas further west could be under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some of those thunderstorms in the east with daytime heating could have some potency to them as the NAM is suggesting a large area of convection over the red river valley. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s across the southern half of Manitoba. 

Friday Night: Calmer weather is likely as another cold front builds south, temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens on the night especially in the Manitoba lakes regions. 

Saturday: Cloudy skies are likely as a low pressure system sits off to the south, temperatures will rise into the high teens to low 20’s. A majority of the heat will be stateside. Pleasant weather is expected with only a 20-30% chance of showers near the American border. 

Saturday Night: Thanks to a northerly flow in place temperatures will drop below normal values with a majority of the region seeing a chance at showers and mostly cloudy skies during the early evening before clearing overnight. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits in the interlakes and some areas in the western half of Manitoba dropping to around 8-9C. Elsewhere lows in the low to mid teens are likely. 

Sunday: Looks like another day to watch for unsettled weather right now, a low pressure system looks to impact the region with a chance for showers in the region. Could this turn into a thunderstorm threat ?? This is something I will keep an eye on as the day gets closer. Temperatures will rise into the high teens to the low 20’s, with the potential for warmer temperatures if we can manage to get in the warm sector of the low. 

I’m gonna be taking a break from blogging until Monday, I’ll update any changes in the model data for these upcoming systems in the comment section of this post. -Mike McGregor 

Severe Thunderstorm Threat returns calmer weather to follow

 Hello everyone, hope your all doing well. A significant severe weather threat will be arriving tomorrow afternoon and evening as a low pressure system moves into southern sections of Manitoba. This will mark the return to some heat and humidity that we will have to deal with also. Read on to find out more what this means for our weather and overall thunderstorm threat. This will not be scientific as I have done in the past as well. 

(Above: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tomorrow afternoon and evening). 

Tuesday: A low pressure system will approach the region ahead of it a warm front will move, into our area allowing for our dew point temperatures to rise into the low 20’s to mid 20’s. Yes it’ll be that humid. Ahead of this temperatures will also rise into the mid to high 20’s with areas along the American border reaching the low 30’s. Ahead of the front significant CAPE will form with upwards of 4,500J/Kg and shear from 300 to 500m2s-2 which supports supercells with the potential for moderate strength to strong Tornadoes. A low pressure system will sit over our area at 6-8pm with a cold front sitting over our area which will be the trigger for these severe thunderstorms. 

(Above: Severe Weather risk for much of southern Manitoba, with supercell thunderstorms possible especially in the Red River Valley). (Below: SKEWT Graph for near the Winnipeg area, with a significant risk of severe weather as seen in the bottom right corner). At the moment the consensus is that an area of severe thunderstorms will develop over south central Manitoba or the parklands part of Manitoba with the potential for explosive thunderstorm development . Once these thunderstorms encounter the soupy unstable airmass they will likely produce hail up to the size of golfballs to baseballs or larger as seen in Alberta. There will also be a risk of damaging winds in excess of 120km/h, flooding rains over 40mm an hour, and tornadoes. Thunderstorms are likely to develop during the late afternoon and early evening and may persist until after dark. We will track these thunderstorms for you tomorrow afternoon and evening as they develop. 

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms will likely clear out of the region by 10-11pm, clear skies are likely overnight as the low moves into Ontario. Temperatures are likely to drop into the low to mid teens on Tuesday night. 

Wednesday: High pressure builds back into the region with calmer weather conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 20’s for daytime high temperatures and low to mid teens for overnight lows. 

Second half of the week: The warmest weather of the week arrives Thursday into Saturday with high temperatures hitting the high 20’s to low 30’s, overnight lows may drop only into the low to mid 20’s or high teens. Severe weather also returns as a possibility on Friday and Saturday.