A Mixed Weather Story For The Long Weekend

Some nice weather is on the way for the long weekend with some sunshine and warm temperatures for Saturday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come on Saturday night and on Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the interlake and Southern Manitoba.

A low will move through Saskatchewan tomorrow afternoon reaching Manitoba Sunday.

It will continue to be a beautiful evening out there for all folks in the South, with temperatures expected to dip into the mid to high teens and some clear skies. Tomorrow maybe a few degrees cooler than it was today as we see more cloudcover work it's way into the province out ahead of another system that will be moving in from Saskatchewan. We could also see some stronger winds ahead close to 30 km/h.

A possibly strong low level jet (LLJ) is forecast to develop on Saturday evening. According to A Weather Moment  "Current consensus is that a 40kt LLJ will develop over central North Dakota and slowly push eastwards overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers look to develop on the nose of the LLJ, mainly through areas between the International Border northwards towards Riding Mountain Provincial Park eastwards across the Interlake." The problem with this forecast currently appears to be associated with Isaac, as it will be pushing northwards towards Iowa before moving eastwards on Sunday. The moisture that is required for us to see thunderstorms on Saturday Night sits along a boundary left behind across the Northern States. The LLJ that forms tomorrow evening should be able to tap into the pool of moisture and transport it northwards into Southern Manitoba. However if the location of the moisture changes or moves which is Isaac then the LLJ would have little left to tap into and we would be left with no more than scattered showers. Along with little amounts.

A cold front will move through during the day on Sunday sparking up more showers and storms, possibly severe before they clear out during Sunday Night. Highs will be in the high 20's. Holiday Monday looks spectacular with highs in the mid to high 20's and a nice breeze from the Southwest.

Record Heat Hits Southern Manitoba

It was a record breaking day altogether on Wednesday for parts of Southern Manitoba, as a southerly flow pumped pumped up some of the hottest air of the year into the area. Temperatures rose into the mid to high 30's over the Red River Valley and Southwestern Portions of the province. In Winnipeg it was the 20th day this summer with high temperatures of 30C or higher (normal should be 13), Winnipeg's high temperature of 35.4C Wednesday tied July 29th as the hottest day of the year in the city. Record Temperatures were set elsewhere in Brandon at 36.9C, and in Dauphin at 37.9C which was the hottest spot in the country. Even hotter weather was recorded south of the border including minot at 40C in North Dakota and 44C in Chamberlain, South Dakota.


Record temperatures across Southern Manitoba Wed Aug 29... (Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

                        New      old     record  records
Location               record   record    year    began
--------------------------------------------------------
Berens River arpt      28.8     28.5      1991    1905
Brandon arpt           36.9     36.7      1972    1890
Dauphin art            37.9     35.6      1972    1891
Fisher Branch          34.6     32.0      1991    1977
Melita                 36.1     30.1      1996    1993
Pilot Mound            35.5     35.0      1961    1938
Pinawa                 33.4     33.0      1991    1964
Portage la Prairie.    36.6     35.6      1972    1886

Southern Manitoba Continues Baking In The Heat

Temperatures have already risen into the mid to high 30's in Southern manitoba, the heat will continue this afternoon and evening until a cold front passes through the region later this evening cooling temperatures into the mid teens. Tips: During the heat Manitoba Health suggests Manitoba residents take precautions against heat-related illnesses whenever the humidex climbs above 37. Manitoba Health advises the following:

• Stay aware and be prepared
  • Know daytime and night-time temperatures-both outdoors and indoors- by checking your local weather forecasts and the thermostat in your home.
  • Stay up to date on weather alerts so you know when to take extra-care.
  • If you have an air-conditioner, make sure it’s working properly before the hot weather starts.
• Stay hydrated
  • Drink plenty of water (that’s the best liquid) before you feel thirsty.
  • Avoid alcoholic beverages, as they can increase the amount of water lost by the body.
• Stay cool and keep out of the sun
  • Plan outdoor activities for cooler parts of the day, but remember to wear insect repellant since mosquitoes are out too.
  • If you are outdoors during the hottest part of the day, shade yourself from the sun with an umbrella or a wide-brimmed hat with lots of ventilation (to allow the sweat on your head to evaporate), wear loose-fitting, breathable, light-coloured clothing, and remember to wear sunscreen to limit ultra-violet (UV) ray exposure.
  • If there is no air-conditioning at home- go to a cool place such as an air-conditioned mall, public library, or community centre.
  • Take a cool bath or shower or go for a swim to cool off.
  • Avoid using your oven or other appliances that could heat your home more.
  • Limit physical activities during the hotter parts of the day or exercise in an air-conditioned place.
• Take care of yourself and others
  • Check on family members, neighbours and friends - especially older adults and those with chronic conditions. Visiting is best because it is easier to identify signs of heat illness that could be missed over the phone.
  • Never leave people or pets in your care alone in closed vehicles or direct sunlight.

                          info from A Weather Moment

I will have a better post tomorrow recapping the heat wave and temperatures that were recorded.
            

Heat To Dominate The Week Ahead

More hot weather will be welcomed this week as August comes to a close, we might get the hottest weather we have ever had this summer in southern Manitoba!

The NAM is hinting at temperatures in the high 30's if we don't experience much in the way of humid weather (Top Left). It may not be as hot on Wednesday if we get more humidity as what the GFS is saying (Top Right).

Another significant ridge of high pressure will build over Manitoba this week, bringing more possible hot weather back to the province. Tuesday will be a nice day in Southern Manitoba, where temperatures will climb up to and around 30C South, West and East of Winnipeg. Areas in the interlakes and in the parklands region may not get quite as hot, only getting near 28C. Altogether humidity levels should be quite low. The real heat and possible humidity will come on Wednesday as it could potentially be the warmest day of the year so far. With most temperatures reaching 34C+ feeling like the mid 40's,  in Southern Manitoba. Although things may get fairly hot if moisture content drops throughout the afternoon. To get a better idea of temperatures in one region (Winnipeg) here is a look at what some of the models are predicting...

• GEM-REG: 32C feeling like 42C
• NAM: 37C with low humidity
• GFS: 31C feeling like 42C
• ECMWF: 32C

Based on recent weather models and forecast frontal positions I would pick the GFS, as there appears to be a warm front sitting over Southern Manitoba on Wednesday ahead of another cold front. This means that our temperatures would feel closer to 40C with the humidity, and humidex advisories may have to be issued. However if the GFS turns out being the wrong solution, we may see the real heat as per what the NAM is predicting (meaning temperatures in the high 30's.) It all depends on moisture content, the more moisture you have the less the air can be heated, its the opposite if you have less moisture that would allow for hotter weather. I will be providing updates on twitter letting everyone know what we can really expect for temperatures on Wednesday. It is too early to tell at this point. I will also have a for sure answer on Wednesday's Post.

Sunny Conditions should be in place throughout Wednesday with little in the way of cloudcover. Things will start deteriorating in the evening hours as a cold front nears and passes, thunderstorms will be likely given the heat and or humidity that will be in place. Severe weather would be possible as it is still the summer season. Cooler Weather will be on the way for Thursday and Friday with temperatures in the mid to high 20's, behind the cold front. Get out there and enjoy it!

Stormy Weather On The Way Tonight, Leaving Behind Cooler Weather For the Weekend

With temperatures in the high twenties to low thirties today, a stormy night will take over as a cold front slides through Southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains. The cold front will knock down temperatures for the start of the weekend, as a NW breeze kicks in blowing air down from the Arctic.

A cold front will move through tonight sparking off showers and numerous thunderstorms

Until the day is done we will see temperatures rise into the high 20's low thirties across southern Manitoba with any leftover cloudcover clearing out. It should be a perfect sunset before things take a turn for the worst this evening as a cold front moves through the southern portion of the province until morning. Showers and numerous thunderstorms should develop along the front itself in the early to mid evening, likely growing in coverage as the night wears on. The showers and thunderstorms will move  the regions in the Red River Valley overnight, bringing a good 15mm to the area. The potential exists for some regions to receive over an inch of rain and a fantastic lightning show, likely the last of the year in Manitoba. Severe Weather will be possible tonight in North Dakota, and a slim chance in Manitoba meaning large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

Things should clear out for tomorrow making way for sunny skies and cooler temperatures near the mid twenties, with a light West to Southwest wind. Warmer Weather will be possible at the start of next week with high's near 30C. Take care during the storms everyone!

Hot Sunny Weather Continues For The Rest Of The Week

Southern Manitoba will be lounging in sunny hot weather for the rest of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the prairie provinces. The province will see a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday Morning through until the evening as a cold front pushes through. The Sunny and hot Weather will return for Friday.

850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm. Look how warm it is in Southern Manitoba 20C+ 850 MB Temperatures. Meaning 30C Weather! Woohoo!

 A southerly flow ahead of an incoming upper level ridge has already pumped temperatures to the 30C mark in some places yesterday and today. So with 850 MB Temperatures near or above 20C we will see daytime highs soar from 30 to 34C today, before the day is done. The warm air that will be in place over the south will also create warmer overnight temperatures. Considering we have had cooler nights with temperatures in the mid teens, tonight we will barely dip below the 20C mark in some places. Other regions may feel cooler, although only about by 5 degrees (10 to 15C) especially in the Southwest and in the Parkland’s. There also will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight as the cold front advances eastwards in the Western Portion of Manitoba.

Tomorrow will be another warm one, however an approaching cold front will move along the international border through the day, bringing some showers and storms through the morning to SW MB and the risk of more thunderstorms to the Red River Valley from Winnipeg and maybe all the way to Fargo. If storms develop they will likely form in the late afternoon along the surface feature. They will probably develop more in North Dakota then in Manitoba, less of a chance in Winnipeg.

Despite the hot weather that will be in place and daytime high's near 30C, severe weather indicies look fairly weak so I probably won't expect any severe weather when they form. The better chances for severe weather will remain in North Dakota.

We will see our temperatures dip into the mid teens on Thursday Night, and Friday looks beautiful with the sunshine and temperatures near 30C continuing. For the weekend it looks like we could have a cold front sweep through Saturday, bringing the threat of more showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather. So as a result Saturday's daytime high will be in the mid to high 20's. Temperatures will likely rebound for Sunday with them returning to the high 20's.

After that temperatures look to stay warm and beautiful for next week!

The Summer Heat Returns!

We will be welcoming back the heat of summer In Southern Manitoba for the coming 2 weeks, after a period cool and wet weather that has been in place.

The NAM indicates we could have some 30C+ Temperatures in some places during the day Tuesday. Tip: add 13C to the temperature you see on the map using the temperature legend.

As predicted, a ridge of high pressure will build over the province this week allowing for the warmest weather conditions to develop that we have seen this August in the province. So how are our temperatures shaping up province wide? Well for the Rest of the day today we can expect to temperatures rise into the mid twenties, although cooler as you head north. Lots of sunshine will be in place allowing for UV Levels to approach the 7 to 8 mark (which is the high values). The real heat comes on Tuesday when most places could record their first 30 degree reading of the month, as we see warm air ride in from the Pacific. In addition to the hot weather there could be some places that surpass 30, especially along the American border.

Unfortunately, the ridge will begin breaking down on both Wednesday and Thursday as a series of Shortwaves move in from the Pacific Coast. These shortwaves will have one or more low pressure systems associated with them, they will create some unsettled weather over the Southern Part of the province during the second half of the week. Current information from Spotwx indicates that an Easterly to Southeasterly flow will likely develop over most regions of Southern Manitoba out ahead of our first approaching low pressure system of the month. We may or may not reach 30C on Wednesday depending on air flow and position of fronts. It is still a possibility that we could see temperatures in the high 20's, though I am not certain if it will get warmer.

Thursday looks interesting for stormchasers as there appears to be a risk for thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba as a strong southerly flow brings more humid air up from the Gulf Of Mexico, out ahead of a low pressure system. This will be the first risk for thunderstorms we have seen in a while. Might also mean a threat for more severe weather if we have the right ingredients come together. Hopefully Capping isn't an issue, cause capping always prevents storm development.

As the weekend approaches NOAA Weather Models indicate an arrival of a series of low pressure systems through our portion of the province.  If the systems continue developing it will mean a warm and wet last weekend of August.

Get out there and enjoy the nice Weather! Head to the beach or go for a nice walk....