Wind Threat returns to Manitoba, calmer and seasonal weather will continue for the week ahead.

 Hello everyone welcome back to another addition of Southern Manitoba’s weather updates got some interesting weather along the way, including a significant wind event happening on the day Saturday as well as some information about some incredibly warm weather coming in for the latter half of the week next week. We’ll have some details on that. Our current upper pattern is driven by a strong, westerly flow and a component of occasional southerly flow.

This blog will be brief but informative southern sections of Manitoba on the day Saturday can expect to see a very mild air mass, temperatures are looking to soar into the low to mid teens, there will be a increased risk for wind gusts up to 100 kilometers an hour in southwestern Manitoba including areas of the escarpments into dauphin regions. The strong area of low pressure will likely develop over the prairies and it has already caused chaos in Western prairie provinces with extreme wind gusts. This area of low pressure will bring a swath of showers into southern sections in Manitoba during the afternoon and evening. Justin is already given details on where the strongest wins will happen however I encourage everyone to tie up their loose items and trampolines if you live in southeastern Manitoba the wind threat will not be as significant as in Western Manitoba with gusts up to 70km/h. A wind warning criteria has been met in western Manitoba so expect wind gusts over 90 kilometers an hour in that region. Winds will likely calm down during the overnight hours temperatures are likely to drop again into the single digits which is considered normal for this time of year. 

A warmer temperature pattern will persist this weekend, with temperatures in the teens and the lower single digits for lows. Sunny skies will persist into the week as well. Temperatures are likely to rebound by mid week into the end of the week with highs in the teens to low 20's. Overall a good week ahead with minimal precipitation.

Shower and Thunderstorm chances return to southern Manitoba, hot weather persists.

 Southern sections of Manitoba is likely going to experience some unsettled weather over the next few days, several waves of low pressure will move across the region starting tomorow afternoon. A strong trough over the western Usa coast will contribute to multiple areas of low pressure developing, the timing of the frontal systems into next week is still being figured out.

Friday afternoon and evening above: shower and thunderstorm chances return during the afternoon and evening models are disagreeing on the timing of the system HRRR is suggesting most precipitation arriving by afternoon whereas the NAM and RAP model suggest later on in the evening hours.

Tonight: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely during the overnight hours, as I write This blog article at ten oh nine PMA line of thunderstorms is moving into southwestern Manitoba this is is likely to expected to persist into the morning hours. There's a chance that this convection drifts into the Red River valley by the morning this would change our forecast for Friday's significantly. Regardless temperatures tonight in southern Manitoba will stay warm with overnight low values in the teens, there is a chance that some areas may sit around the twenty degree mark especially in areas that do not see precipitation tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected however based on current model data, there may be a marginally severe storm or two however a majority of the severe thunderstorms will occur stateside.

Friday: A slow moving cold front is forecast to move through our region on Friday ahead of it temperatures likely are gonna be sitting in the mid to upper 20s there is a possibility that areas in the Red River valley including Winnipeg Portage la Prairie and the white shell may see high temperatures approaching the thirty degree celsius mark. As this front moves through marginal instability of 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram are forecast to build into our region with increasing chances for shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. This line is expected to reach the Red River valley by the early evening late afternoon hours. Current high resolution models did not pick up the strength of the thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba so based on all the information that I can gather there is a chance that some of these thunderstorms may in fact be severe Friday afternoon and evening. During Friday night thunderstorms or showers will clear the region by late evening or early midnight hours they should weaken significantly after sunset. Temperatures during the overnight time frame are expected to drop into the lower teens in southwestern Manitoba and mid to upper teens in southeastern Manitoba the dividing line is Lake Manitoba temperatures after Lake Manitoba towards the West will be on the cooler side.

Saturday: Calmer weather conditions are likely on the day Saturday as we sit on the east side of a stationary front, There is a chance in areas of southwestern Manitoba for some white showers during morning however looks like only areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may be at risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder during the afternoon and evening Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be seasonal or slightly above seasonal with values in the mid 20s and very little in the way of humidity. No organized precipitation is forecast however for Saturday night into Sunday. The temperature is forecast on Sunday night are likely to be in the upper teens around our normal daytime high temperatures.

Sunday: Temperatures on the day Sunday are likely even to soar higher than earlier in the week what is interesting about this is that some areas may be about 10 to 12 degrees above normal there is a slight risk of some thunderstorms on the days Sunday with the heat forecast. Bottom line temperatures on Sunday across the board will be in the upper 20s with the possibility of some areas reaching 30 degrees Celsius dew point temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens so there will be some moisture and humidity on Sunday. Sunday Night: Another wave of instability is forecast to move through southern Manitoba on the night Sunday into Monday models are having a hard time figuring out if the cap will break with this if it does there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms pinpointing where exactly they happen is difficult to determine at this point however there will be a possibility for some unsettled weather into Monday morning. Severe thunderstorms isolated in nature are possible as a frontal system lifts north.

Next Week: Increasing chances of precipitation look likely next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving through there is an increased risk of seeing higher levels of convective available potential energy as the heat also arrives with these systems. It Very well be our last chance at seeing any organized thunderstorm events bottom line we could be in for a lot of rain if models continue bringing in the Pacific and Gulf moisture at once as forecast. Temperatures will moderate after these fronts pass through. 

Severe Weather Threat Arrives

Good evening folks of Manitoba we have some severe weather to talk about right now. As I write this right now, we have a complex of storms in the lakes and western Manitoba. We are looking at a threat of severe weather likely for southern Manitoba tonight into afternoon tomorrow this will be a very interesting 24 to 48 hour. Time frame there will be a threat for this active weather to continue into, our day Monday will be brief and quick, but will touch on some very important points that you need to know for the rest of the weekend . 

(Environment Canadas Severe weather risk forecast above for the day on Sunday. )

Tonight extremely humid conditions are forecast for southern Manitoba as a tropical air mass moves in from the United States. Dewpoint temperatures will be rising between 15 to 22°C, already high levels of instability has been developing in southwestern Manitoba with 2,000JKG of CAPE. This area is primed for a threat of severe thunderstorms during the overnight time frame. Areas that I’m currently watching are the parklands in the Interlakes parts of Manitoba the RAP model is suggesting that during the overnight timeframe. A squall line will be building in the interlakes which will likely dip into the Winnipeg region shortly after midnight as it rises the west side of the ridge. If this does not happen clear conditions during the overnight in the south mainly during this timeframe, with the possibility of active weather arriving during the morning hours in western Manitoba. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20’s with areas in western Manitoba if they get affected by storms will drop into the low to mid teens. 

Tomorrow (Above): Lingering convection will clear out if there is any , the focus will be in the interlake regions as well as the red river valley as this may be a significant squall there may be a risk for 100-110km/h winds during the morning to early afternoon hours. Looking over latest model data it appears that dew points of 20 to 25C, humidex values of 36-45C. In terms of instability as well 2000-3000 J per kilogram of cape will be available by the late afternoon hours in the red River Valley , there will be a threat for flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat. This is conditional however with a cap in place for most of the day. A cold front will be the trigger as it approaches most of the weather models are showing the highest risk being from portage la prairie to East towards the Ontario border. Environment Canada has majority of the area in a high risk area. 

Sunday Night: Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into northern Ontario, the threat for severe storms may persist into the evening before calming down, the tornado threat will likely fade by the 7pm timeframe.  Clearing skies are likely during the overnight. Temperatures will drop in the mid teens in the southeast with areas in the southwest in the lower teens. 

The week ahead temperatures it look like they are going to be returning to seasonal values with high temperatures on Monday, rising into the mid 20s. Much cooler weather is forecast however, as we approach the day on Tuesday were high temperatures will only reach the mid to high teens. Overnight lows during this timeframe will range between 10 to 18°C with cooler overnight lows likely on Tuesday unsettled weather is possible and thunderstorms possible.

Showers and Thunderstorm Threat return, severe weather possible in southwestern Manitoba.

 Good afternoon everyone good evening everyone I have a update on the weather for the next 24 to 48 hours this will be a brief but informative blog post. We have an interesting next couple of days in store weather wise, the last couple of weeks we have been in a cooler than average weather regime with calmer more stable weather thanks to a persistent northwesterly flow which is basically prevented us from experiencing any gulf moisture moving into the United States eventually coming up to Canada. This weather pattern is likely going to change as we head into the second half of the week. as a area of low pressure moves in from the west. 

The day Wednesday an area of low pressure will be sitting off to our S and North Dakota the main severe weather threat will remain in the Dakotas however on the northern side of the low pressure system during the early afternoon hours an area of convection may blossom in NW North Dakota. Based on what I'm seeing in model runs if we can get some level of clearing during the early afternoon hours especially in western Manitoba convection may be on the stronger side however given the limited instability that is forecast as well as very lack shear there could very well be just strong or subsevere thunderstorms. There is a possibility that the thunderstorms which develop in northwest North Dakota will drift into southwestern Manitoba by afternoon into the Red River valley by the evening hours. If the thunderstorms can hold off until later afternoon in North Dakota they may be on the stronger side as daytime heating will likely allow for more instability to build up if that does become the case we could be looking at isolated severe thunderstorms however because the models are agreeing on a afternoon solution I do not see severe thunderstorms being a widespread threat. Whether or not the thunderstorms are able to sustain themselves by the time they get into the valley is yet to be seen as most models show weakening trend by the time they enter the that region. Regardless temperatures for majority of southeastern Manitoba will be rising into the mid to high 20s areas that get rain during the afternoon will only rise into the low 20s. 

Overnight into the day on Thursday fairly unsettled weather will continue into areas of South Central and southeastern Manitoba with a possibility of seeing more thunderstorms and scattered showers again thunderstorms will likely be very weak with marginally small hail at times, the HRDPS model is suggesting a northward track of convection into the Red River valley by the morning hours will be interesting to see if this continues in future model trends bottom line there is an increase risk for thunderstorms in eastern Manitoba during the evening and overnight. Temperatures during the overnight will drop into the mid teens. 

Much calmer weather pattern is likely for the day on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds back into the region. Another day of unsettled weather looks likely for our region come the weekend as another area of low pressure builds in into the eastern Prairie provinces by Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures for the period between Wednesday and Saturday will be in the mid to high 20s with the exception of low 30s on the day Saturday and Sunday, overnight low temperatures will likely again remain in the mid to high teens.

Severe Weather Threat arriving this evening, break from heat and humidity on the way.

 Hello folks I have a update on a pretty substantial weather threat this afternoon and evening we are in for a wild ride not only today but later this week a large ridge of high pressure has built up over the central United States and as a result we are in the north side of this likely getting multiple areas of low pressure over the N top of this ridge which will result in multiple severe weather chances. We have details on what could be a very active evening across southern sections of Manitoba before a quieter weather pattern establishes itself. Have a look and get into the details of what could be a stormy end to our week on our Saturday today.

Today a hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections in Manitoba including the city of Winnipeg areas that are in the zone will see high temperatures already for our day today with values in the upper 20s and low 30s, there will be an increased risk for a general area ahead of a cold front to bring severe weather potential this evening. Looking over the generalized convective available potential energy values this area will be seeing between 2000 to 4000 joules per kilogram of CAPE. Shear on the other hand that does look to be moderate with 20 to 30 knots of shear likely with a possibility of 40 knots of shear in some sections. What this means for our part of the province is that there will be a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms during the evening. A likelihood of initially discrete supercell thunderstorms. I'm looking at the general risk area right now at an area between Portage La Prairie towards the international border by Pilot Mound, with an extension East into the white shell N into east central Manitoba where Bisset west to the Interlakes which includes the city of Winnipeg. I have attached a couple of model suggesti, ons above these are only an idea of what could happen in the atmosphere, however when severe thunderstorms or if severe thunderstorms develop these thunderstorms be capable of bringing up hail to the size of golf balls or larger, 110 kilometer hour wind gusts, rainfall in excess of fifty millimeters an hour or more, and a isolated tornado threats. What I am looking over right now is current mesoscale analysis data, and that suggests right now that there is building instability coming in from the United States that will likely create a potential trigger as we head into the evening. This is nothing to get excited about this is just a suggestion as to what could happen this evening so be weather aware, if you were in any weather alerts later on tonight stay tuned to Environment Canada for information. As the discrete severe thunderstorms develop they will likely transpire into a squall line by the evening racing E into the white shell so if you are in the Falcon Lake or in the vicinity of Kenora or eastern Manitoba by Beausejour and Lac Du Bonnet. Bottom line these could be some powerful storms, stay safe!!

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high teens with some areas of the southeast only dropping into the upper teens near 20 degrees Celsius, newer weather model runs are suggesting a second round of storms for extreme southeastern Manitoba during the overnight. If storms do move through that part of the province they will be severe with up to the potential for large hail and damaging winds however the tornado threat will be minimized in this environment given that the main instability will be off to the West during the evening. 

Sunday should be a much calmer day as we enter a northwesterly flow behind the low pressure system temperatures will be also beyond the cooler side with a little bit less humidity forecast, temperatures will rise into the upper twenties with, similar cooler temperatures likely overnight with lows dropping into the mid to upper teens. 

More unsettled weather is likely for the day on Monday-Wednesday with multiple chances at showers and thunderstorms. The details however are still needing to be worked out for these days, as we wait on new model data giving us a better idea of what to expect with these low pressure systems. 

Another threat of severe weather likely this evening into the overnight.

Good afternoon everyone I am going to do something a little bit different today. I know that you want a sneak peek at today’s weather and the weekend, however given the fact that we are dealing with a significant threat for severe thunderstorms in southern sections of Manitoba I will be writing a separate Outlook for these thunderstorms and the weekend forecast will be followed later in a separate blog. 

(One of the many weather models suggesting a severe weather event tonight in southern Manitoba if you guys are wondering the timing of this system the above photo suggests a super soldier to the east of Brandon by about 7 to 10P M with a squall line to the west of that. This is just one of the many possible outcomes for the event tonight with the cold front moving in.)

Today will be one of those days to watch for possibility of severe weather. An extremely hot and humid air mass will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba this afternoon as already has reached temperatures into the upper 20s and low 30s. Humidx values have been reaching the upper 30s and low 40s as well dew point temperatures this afternoon have been rising steadily into the upper teens in low 20s as a result we are seeing general most unstable cape values between 1000 to 4000 joules per kilogram the highest level of sheer exist in southwestern Manitoba where super so complicated values at the moment are between 10 and 12. So it does look like moisture and instability is not a problem however on the side where sheer is it is a bit weaker as you move off to the east in eastern Manitoba. As a result tornadoes are not as likely in southeastern Manitoba as they are in southwestern Manitoba during the early development of thunderstorms. Only about 30 to 50 knots of sheer is likely and the lower end of shear is more than likely after sunset. As I write this at 4:50 PM the cold front is currently situated in western Manitoba right on the Saskatchewan Manitoba border along with a through ahead of it if this moves into the province later this afternoon it's the evening depending on when the cap roads there will be likely hood of widespread severe thunderstorms developing in the western half of Manitoba or eastern Saskatchewan. Models are currently all over the place which puts this forecast in a little bit of a fritz.

Based on what I am seeing in the models a area of isolated super cells are possible in areas of southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan during the early evening hours into the mid to late evening and then there is a possibility further east of some severe thunderstorms popping up over the Interlake and Red River valley regions west to Portage La Prairie. Further to the West an area of super cell thunderstorms is possible with up to tennis ball sized hail and wind gusts up to one hundred ten kilometres an hour and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This will be in the high risk area as shown in the risk map above this one environment Canada has a high risk area of for the dauphin and Brandon area .After this period of thunderstorms, they will then likely organize into a complex of thunderstorms which will move east southeast through the evening into the overnight. There is a possibility that these thunderstorms may hold off until shortly after the 9 to 10:00 PM. That is the case the Red River valley and areas further east will not see these thunderstorms until twelve to three AM.. Based on environment Canada's forecast a slight risk of severe storms is likely with wind gusts up to 110 kilometres an hour in thunderstorms with up to three to six centimeter hail again this could also be lower given the fact that these are just estimates based on the instability that is available. 

Here are the agreeing weather models just to the below the bottom of this.

The only model that is disagreeing is the HRRR and  The NA MNEST model at 18Z where both show a storm complex forming over Winnipeg then a squall moving east into the area that was affected with weakened thunderstorms. I have decided not to show this as there is a strong cap over the Winnipeg region right now and I do not foresee any storms forming within this region before sunset as the model has suggested. This is one of those forecasts where I had to rely on the severe weather parameters to come up with a conclusion and based on what I have seen with severe weather behavior is that there is always super cell thunderstorms which develop and then there is usually a coinciding factor along cold front which is what is today's set up with the potential for a squall I have attached some photos above of the simulated radar imagery. This is only an example of what could happen not a hundred percent certain. Given the vast uncertainty and timing and location of fronts. Bottom line severe storms are likely in the environment currently. 

Temperatures for the evening into the overnight will likely drop behind this cold front if you do not experience thunderstorms temperatures may remain mild until the frontal passage happens during the overnight, I see wide ranging temperatures between fifteen and twenty two degrees celsius with the cooler temperature is likely over the Manitoba Lakes. A more detailed forecast will be on the way this evening for the outlook for Saturday and Sunday heading into the first half of the week I am just awaiting new model runs. Stay alert to any new weather alerts that get posted and also ensure that you have a way to receive alerts and you can also follow the weather centre in Manitoba where we will be posting information on severe weather that occurs.

Showers and Thunderstorms likely to end the week.

 Hey everyone it’s Mike with another weather update, looks like another round of potentially wet and stormy weather is likely over southern Manitoba. There will be a possibility of flooding. Find out when and where the heaviest rainfall is likely to occur. 

Tonight: an area of low pressure will be sitting to our south and North Dakota with a large area convection developing in Northwestern, North Dakota. We will be on the north side of the low pressure system in southern Manitoba tonight which will allow for a large area of moisture to pool on the north side of it. A large area of rain will blossom in southwestern Manitoba this evening, which will move east gradually overnight across the south, this will be a heavy convective rainfall so areas that they get under heavier bands of rain may possibly receive up to 50+ mm of rain. Precipitable water values are between one and 2 inches so areas along the American border up to the areas along the Trans Canada highway. The areas may get upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain or more depending on how intense some of the convector bands get on the north side of the low pressure system. I have attached a photo above of total rainfalls forecast for the system tonight if you are interested. Temperatures tonight will mainly stay quite warm with overnight low values between 10 and 15C. 

Friday: The system should be moving into Northwestern Ontario during the day on Friday however, residual rain and showers will persist over southern and central Manitoba temperatures on the day. Friday will be much cooler with only forecast high values in the mid teens with some areas getting around only as warm as 10°C especially if you’re in western Manitoba. Cloudy skies are likely for a majority of the day as a cold front is over the southern part of the province. There will be a risk as well for final clouds and extreme southwestern Manitoba, and in areas of the Pamina valley. These are cold core funnels so no severe tornado outbreaks are likely.

Friday night: Clearing skies will likely Will be the coolest we’ve experienced with temperatures likely to drop in Southwestern Manitoba between 2 and 6°C areas in south eastern Manitoba, however will likely drop the temperatures in the upper single digits and low teens.

Saturday: Temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens on the day with some are in the low 20s possible under sunny skies and calmer weather conditions. 

Saturday night: Calmer, weather conditions will persist no significant weather is forecast temperatures will drop into the upper single digits and low teens around 10°C for most.

Sunday: Southern Manitoba will begin to move on the east side of an area of high-pressure as a result of southerly flow begin to establish itself. the weather will also become more interesting as we get into the overnight period. Temperature is on Sunday will rise into the upper teens and low 20s with the humidity values reaching the upper 20s, there is a possibility of us seeing more thunderstorms. I’m not sure if they’ll be severe at this point however it looks like a cluster of thunderstorms could form over southwestern Manitoba during the late evening into the red river valley by morning hours on Monday 

More unsettled weather is likely as we head into the beginning of the week with more chances of showers and thunderstorms and seasonal temperatures in the mid 20s overnight lows in the teens. 

Thunderstorm threat returns more unsettled weather ahead for the weekend.

Hey everyone we're gonna do a quick weather update for the weekend normally I would go into in depth information about our overall weather setup. This weekend looks to be one of those more unsettled setups got multiple days of rounds of thunderstorms that could impact a majority of southern Manitoba. Read on more below.

During the afternoon on Saturday a area of low pressure will sit over central Manitoba just north of Winnipeg, this area of low pressure looks to create an unstable air mass during the afternoon there will be a possibility or threat of strong thunderstorms some of which may be severe however we're not looking at a large severe threat comparative to other events that we've had. If we do get severe storms they will be marginal with hail only about 1 to two millimeters thickness and rainfall of 30 to forty millimeters, Environment Canada is suggesting that majority of these storms will remain subsevere however some may briefly approach or surpass severe limits. Temperatures on the day Saturday will be warm in the southeast with the majority of the SE seeing highs in the mid to high 20s there is a possibility that some localities may be a bit cooler especially in the southwest part of the province where showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. If storms can hold off till later in the afternoon temperatures may reach the low to mid twenties in the southwest.

Above two images simulated radar imagery for Saturday afternoon with thunderstorms developing across a broad section of our region, there will be an isolated risk for a severe storm or two with large hail and heavy rain. Significant severe weather is not forecast.

On the overnight into Sunday expects partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with the possibility of more clearing towards morning hours. Overnight temperatures on Saturday night will likely drop into the mid teens with areas Across the region dropping between 11 and 15 degrees Celsius. Cooler In the southwest.

Sunday will be a much calmer weather day compared to earlier this Weekend, I'm looking at high temperatures on a day Sunday rising into the mid 20s areas around the Manitoba Lakes however maybe a little bit cooler seeing temperatures in the upper teens. Unsettled weather will not be expected on the day of Sunday however odd pop up shower may occur. Heading into Sunday nights this is when there could be a threat for severe weather over southern Manitoba a complex of thunderstorms may likely develop in Saskatchewan and then drift E SE over the parklands into the Lake Manitoba region and then the Red River valley and Interlake regions overnight. We will wait on model runs to come out to verify this. The NAM model is suggesting this as well as the NAMNEST model. These thunderstorms may present a severe threat we will know more by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonal for a majority of the night with temperatures dropping into the mid teens.

The week ahead looks potentially active especially the day on Monday, A renewed threat for severe thunderstorms is possible during the afternoon and evening on Monday. A frontal system will move through southern Manitoba during the afternoon hours there is a possibility for increased levels of instability as humidity and heat move in from the United States this may be the hottest day of the week with temperatures rising into the upper 20s and humidity values in the upper 30s and possibly near 40C.

Severe Weather Threat Returns to Southern Manitoba.

 Hello everyone. An active period of weather is likely to impact southern sections of Manitoba this weekend. I am actually quite surprised at the latest data and it seems like conditions will be similar to the weather we had earlier this week. Overall a humid, hot and potentially unstable pattern is on the way to southern Manitoba this weekend as a batch of tropical air will be moving up from the united states gulf of Mexico. Find out how bad the weather will get and where and when in this weekends latest blog.

(Above: First summer batch of humidity arrives for southern Manitoba with dewpoint values between 15 and 20C - Muggy).

Tonight much of Southern Manitoba will be under threat for another round of thunderstorms especially areas from the Saskatchewan border as far east as Winnipeg could see scattered showers and thunderstorms with small hill mainly. During the later overnight hours most of these should weaken as sunrise nears. Severe weather is not anticipated for this. 

The attention then turns to Saturday when a southwesterly flow will be present with many low pressure systems the last couple of weeks moving east along a zonal flow however given the fact that there will be much high level moisture available tapping from the Gulf of Mexico severe weather is possible later in the day. Temperatures during the afternoon according to the high resolution models including the Canadian High Resolution Model will rise into the mid to upper 20 degrees Celsius range across the south. Current model guidance shows that dew point temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens as a result we are expecting general thunderstorm energy to rise. I don't really get into much atmospheric dynamics however there is broad troughing over the Western United States that is resulting in multiple areas of low pressure to develop over the Canadian Prairie provinces. As a result of this low pressure system there will be an increased threat for severe thunderstorms over southwestern Manitoba into the Red River Valley. Towards the afternoon there is a smaller risk in eastern Manitoba as some high resolution models are hinting at scattered severe thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon in the southern Red River Valley which may impact Winnipeg in the afternoon however this confidence is a lot lower given that the threats will be highest in the western part of Manitoba during the afternoon and evening. So let's get into the details.

(Above: Possible severe storms in the red river valley during the afternoon hours. Based on the RDPS model).

 Scenario #1 Starting in the afternoon a warm front will be sitting over the Canadian border moving into southern Manitoba by the afternoon bringing strong dew points and instability north of the border which will also move into areas of southwestern Manitoba. There is conditional instability present in the Red River valley which may contribute to an area of severe thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and early evening which may impact the Winnipeg and eastern portions of Manitoba, this will only be possible if there is no early morning convection or showers. If storms form later in the day and develop in the southwest as well with these storms they could be some powerful thunderstorms especially in the Red River Valley regions. There is a possibility that some of these may be super cells however there is not a lot of model information on the HRDPS i'm just mentioning that there is a possibility that the Red River valley could also see storms in the late afternoon and early evening. If there is morning showers or storms this risk for this potential thunderstorm threat would be lower. 

(Above: Radar Images on the severe weather forecast to impact southern Manitoba during the evening in the SW.):

The higher levels of concerns for severe thunderstorms will be present in western Manitoba I spoke with Justin and he said that there will be a risk for supercell development in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba with MUCAPE values between 2000 and 4000 joules per kilogram with plenty of shear. But we are then looking at is the development of possible super cell thunderstorms with the ability to produce hail up to the size of golf balls or baseballs given the fact that we have that experienced that earlier this week, there is also a risk that an area from Melita to Brandon N to Neepawa W to Portage la Prairie will be at risk for tornadoes to develop along with flooding rains, most areas will get between 10 to 70mm+ of rain depending on thunderstorm activity). Based on what Justin had mentioned to me there is a possibility of potentially dangerous situation tornadoes in the southwest part of Manitoba, EHI values which basically tell the severity of storms ahead of time sometimes we can tell how bad it might be. The values are right now forecast to be between one and 4 which show significant severe risk. If conditions allow these thunderstorms will merge into a thunderstorm complex which will then travel east across the southwest part of the province into the Red River valley by overnight which may weaken into rain and possible thunderstorms. Some of the other high res models are also showing that thunderstorm complex dying out with more thunderstorms developing over Northern Lake Winnipeg which is an odd location for thunderstorms given that instability will not be significant in that area will have to monitor to see if there's any changes in future runs.

Thunderstorms are expected to persist during the late evening into the overnight hours there is a possibility they may completely weaken as they reach the Red River valley as instability values drop significantly. However if they do sustain themselves there is a possibility for wind gusts up to 90 kilometers an hour or more with small to moderate hail and frequent lightning. ****(Unrelated note: For those of you who want to see thunderstorms in the Red River valley we still have the entire summer to go and all it takes is for one low pressure system to encounter heat humidity and boom we get storms that could be quite powerful. And the Red River valley is also known for some pretty powerful thunderstorms over the last 50 years or so, I'm not gonna go in a tangent but St Claude had a major tornado in 1984, there was a major wedge tornado by Brunkild in 2000 and you also have Elie in 2007, Gull Lake in 2006 on August 5th and you also have that tornado which struck South Winnipeg on July 6 of 1987. So storm season is not over yet it's just beginning unfortunately for those of you don't like thunderstorms you have to wait until September comes.)***   Temperatures are forecast to drop only into the upper teens overnight. 

During the morning hours on Sunday there may be some remaining instability of CAPE as the front moves east in areas of the Red River Valley East, with a possibility of new thunderstorms developing over the central Red River valley and areas east into the white shell into the morning hours these storms will not be significantly severe. Looking at the possibility at some heavy downpours and hail. However if storms from the overnight are persistent it may not allow for these thunderstorms to develop during the morning and general clearing would be expected. Sunday will be one of those calmer weather days with temperatures behind the cold front sitting in the lower 20s to mid 20s, with areas to the W in the province there will be temperatures in the upper teens for daytime highs.

The week ahead: Unsettled weather will persist On Monday and Tuesday as a southwesterly flow sits over our region with temperatures slightly below average there will be a couple chances for showers and thunderstorms especially on Monday and Tuesday. Your weather is not likely however there is a possibility for some isolated severe cells depending on how much instability builds in. Be happy however I just heard in Montana that there is a possibility of a winter storm headed their way this week so could always be worse in Manitoba. Calmer weather is likely throughout the rest of the week

Seasonal weather continues, heat and humidity arrive briefly. Severe weather threat possibly arriving midweek.

Good evening everyone I have a weather blog update for the weather for the beginning part of the week there's some interesting weather forecast with the potential for some severe weather on the day Wednesday afternoon will get into that shortly. Looks like a broad area of low pressure will be swinging through the central and eastern Prairie provinces with the possibility of bringing with it some unsettled weather and temperatures around normal. 

Above photo of severe thunderstorm risk on Wednesday (Top Photo) followed by the NAM weather model on the (bottom photo) showing the SKEW T Graph threat of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday just South of Winnipeg this may also change depending on the updated model runs over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tonight an area of low pressure will be moving through southern sections of Manitoba with the possibility of mainly cloudy skies and mostly rain heading into the overnight. General rainfall amounts expected to be between, 10 to fifteen millimeters of rain the most rainfall is likely to fall in southwestern parts of Manitoba up into the Manitoba Scarpent and the east part of western Manitoba near Riding Mountain National Park. By morning a majority of the rain should be out of the province there should be a possibility of showers in the Interlake region as the area of low pressure begins To move SE. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to low teens areas of the Interlakes and expect to be seeing temperatures closer to the 10 degrees Celsius marked with the cooler lake waters in those areas.

The weather on Tuesday afternoon should clear out with sunny skies forecast temperatures getting into the upper teens and lower 20s especially if you're in areas closer to the American border. There will be a chance for some scattered showers and weak thunderstorms during the afternoon with very little instability in place expect them to be non severe in nature. A more robust chance of thunder storms are possible on the day on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks like a warm front will approach our region ahead of it there will be a chance for some weak showers or scattered showers during the morning hours overnight low temperatures will be in the mid teens with areas of the Inter Lakes again seeing temperatures in the lower teens.

On Wednesday this is when the weather gets concerning a area of low pressure will be off to our north another one be moving through southeastern Manitoba into northwestern Ontario. Temperatures Will be rising into the mid it to high 20s especially in areas of the Red River Valley and Southeastern Manitoba, along with it high levels of instability. We are generally looking at convective available potential energy values between one thousand five hundred and two thousand five hundred along with Bulk shear between 25 and 45 knots. It looks like the threat for severe thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening in south central and eastern Manitoba there is also a possibility that this risk area could shift a bit further to the West depending on how far east the frontal system decides to move on the day Wednesday. There is an indication during the afternoon that thunderstorms will develop in southwestern Manitoba moving east into the more unstable air mass there will be a possibility of tornadoes happening during the afternoon and evening hours. The risk will be low for tornadoes however. I've looked over several models and the super cell composite as well as significant tornado parameter are on the lower end which shows that there is a slight risk for tornadoes. Areas included are from Brandon to Winnipeg, east to the whiteshell then south to the american border. Also we're not looking at anything that would be considered a more substantial level which you would get in July or August. Bottom line if storms can hold off till a little bit later in the day they may be a little bit more significant however they look like majority of the storms will fire shortly after lunchtime or in the early to mid afternoon hours with very little capping in place these storms may not reach the significant levels that we get in the United States. Regardless look for a risk for a severe thunderstorms on the day Wednesday with large hail damaging winds and torrential rain. Will also be quite humid our humidx values will likely reach the mid 30s during the afternoon on Wednesday. Justin or I will have a updates on this weather threat on the morning hours or late morning early afternoon on Wednesday.

Calmer weather is likely for the second half of the week with temperatures in the upper teens lower 20s possibilities of mid 20s as well, there will be a chance for some showers on Thursday followed by calmer conditions on Friday. However more unsettled weather is likely for the weekend as more areas of low pressure move into southern Manitoba with more instability coming in from the United States, it looks like this is a start to what could be our storm season as June is a more active month on average.

Beautiful weekend to end on Unsettled note, chances for showers and thunderstorms.

 Hello everyone I am back with your weather update for the next 3 to 5 days, I've been quite busy over the last two and a half weeks I was also sick and down for the count with the old C19 virus I am able to provide a quick little synopsis about what's expected with our weather over the next few days especially as we head into the weekend the weather looks turn a little bit more unsettled and we could also have our first shot at More significant thunderstorms. Read on to find out more in this weekly weather blog from yours truly Mike McGregor.

Above window, simulation of the wind gusts associated with the thunderstorms this evening. Severe weather, is not likely. 

The situation for today's weather pattern is we have a trough of low pressure or shortwave off in southwestern Manitoba which will kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening which will then move east throughout southern parts of Manitoba into the white shell by the evening. These scattered showers and thunderstorms will not be severe however given the fact that we have very strong winds at upper levels that these thunderstorms will tap into that and there is a possibility that some of these thunderstorms could have gusts from 80 to 90 kilometers an hour at times. Given the fact that there will be very little instability to work with these thunderstorms may only produce five to ten millimeters of rain once they impact your location. I coordinated with Justin with some information on this setup and he says that if any thunderstorm does impact the location it could have some very strong wind gusts there is a very low risk of hail associated with these thunderstorms. Regardless I'm seeing a likelihood of our high temperatures soaring into the low 20s for a majority of southern Manitoba once these thunderstorms move through during the late afternoon hours especially in the southwest these temperatures will drop well into the mid teens.

Tonight: as this shortwave moves back to the West in southern Saskatchewan I'm not seeing any significant weather moving into the rest of Manitoba during the overnight, remaining showers and thunderstorms which developed will likely be impacting the white the white shell and eastern Manitoba shortly before midnight. Areas to the west of the trough of low pressure especially in southwestern Manitoba will only see low temperatures between five and 8 degrees Celsius, areas to the east of the Trough of low pressure will see temperatures drop which is more seasonal for this time of year between 10 and 14 degrees Celsius areas that are in rural Manitoba may see temperatures closer to 10 degrees Celsius.

Saturday looks to be gorgeous with our daytime high temperatures soaring into the high teens and low 20s, mainly sunny skies are likely during the afternoon with Winds out of the West between 10 to about 30 kilometers an hour. No significant weather to talk about. 

Saturday night will be the transition as an area of low pressure sits off to our South in the North Dakota's, this will be our weather maker for Sunday. Expect an area of increasing cloud cover with a possibility of some cloudy patches during the morning hours, Overnight low temperatures are likely to drop into the low to mid teens there is a possibility that some urban centres may be a bit warmer winnipeg is forecast to get a low of 16 degrees Celsius whereas areas outside the city may see temperatures between ten and fourteen degrees Celsius.

(Above): Thunderstorm complex likely to impact southern Manitoba on the day Sunday. We will let you know further updates as they come in.

Sunday: OK this is the one the weather starts to get a wee little bit Interesting and I've decided to use a little bit of some England accent to start this synopsis for Sunday, I promise you we're not gonna be getting weather that they would get in the United States or their countries what you would call monsoons. A strong frontal boundary looks to impact southern sections of Manitoba during the day on Sunday out ahead of it strong precipitable water values between one to 1 1/2 inches is possible which will be fuelled along a strong low level jet boundary and a general ML capes between five hundred and a thousand will be accessible for these thunderstorms. Models are suggesting a thunderstorm complex developing out ahead of a large broad trough that is sitting over northern Manitoba, only areas seeing that risk is in southeastern and S central Manitoba the highest risk for severe thunderstorms appears during Sunday afternoon and evening. Based on the latest data it appears that thunderstorms will be developing in northwestern North Dakota filling into southwestern Manitoba by the late afternoon hours there is a possibility that depending on where the front lines up that these thunderstorms could fire further to the south if that happens the thunderstorms could be impacting only areas of southeastern Manitoba including the Red River valley and the Winnipeg Interlake regions. Justin I Justin and I had a conversation and it appears that we could have be having a decent risk of another round of severe thunderstorms on Sunday as mentioned a few moments ago. The details of this event are still being ironed out by high resolution models so we will update you on the afternoon or evening on Saturday for this event. Regardless our high temperatures on Sunday will be rising into the mid to high 20s the majority of the Red River valley will be seeing high temperatures in the upper 20s with humidity or humid arcs values likely in the mid to high thirties.

Sunday night/ Clearing is likely with temperatures behind the front, dropping into the low to mid teens. Cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely overnight . 

The week ahead: Showers and storms are likely during the first half of the week with some remaining unsettled weather conditions. Storms are possible again on Tuesday though likely non severe in nature. Temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the low to mid 20’s. Overnight lows in the mid to high teens. 

Wild End to the Week Likely, first severe thunderstorm threat arriving for the season. Will This wet weather Continue?

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba, And Hello all loyal blog followers. I am back with an update on the weather for the end of the week. Yes you read that right there appears to be our first threat at severe weather over southern sections of Manitoba heading into our end of the week. To end the week we have large scale trapping over Western Canada which is allowing for the development of low pressure systems over the southern Prairie provinces. A wetter then average trend continues to be taking over our weather story for the second half of the week we will have details on everything you need to know about this. Starting off with a less traditional way of doing my blog posts I have attached a photo below of the total accumulated rainfall that is forecast by the ECMWF AI vs the NAM weather model and this is pretty interesting that it is showing a convective event a couple of days of in advance will have a little bit more about this below. 

. This weather blog will cover the forecast into the weekend and early next week...

I know I have lots to talk about but we're gonna start off with details on our weather for tonight,

Tonight: Much of southern sections in Manitoba will continue to see scattered showers especially areas in southeast Manitoba as a weak shortwave moves through into northwestern Ontario during the overnight. Cloudy skies are expected during the overnight with some clearing in south central and southwestern Manitoba. Temperatures during the overnight will more than likely stay above 10 degrees Celsius for portions of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba with values between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius, areas further to the west under clear skies will likely see overnight values between 5 and 8 degrees Celsius. 

Thursday: Southern regions including Western Parklands area of Manitoba could be in for an interesting day on the day Thursday, a stationary front is forecast to stall out on the western side of Manitoba during the late afternoon. Based on current model consensus a majority of southern sections in Manitoba. The risk for showers and weak thunderstorms with the highest risk in western Manitoba, general CAPE values appear to be between 300 and 700 joules per kilogram the strongest signals for thunderstorms appear to develop over Western Manitoba and then the interlakes towards later in the day. Storms will be scattered in nature and they may bring a risk for small hail. Although environment canada is forecasting thunderstorms for all of southern Manitoba, I do not see a significant risk for severe weather. Temperatures during the afternoon will rise into the mid to high teens, with eastern Manitoba a bit cooler in the mid teens as a possibility. 

Thursday night: This is when the transition starts before and more active setup occurs on the day  Friday, a stationary front will remain over Western Manitoba where scattered showers or possible weak thunder showers will continue during the evening hours before weakening again I see the best risk area for thunderstorms off and on throughout southern Manitoba during the evening scattered and very localized in nature. Overnight on Thursday mostly cloudy skies are forecast with the exception of extreme southern Manitoba near the American border where clouds will likely clear towards the morning hours. The upper level flow will continue to be out of the southwest. Temperatures in the southwest will be remaining above or around 10 to 15 degrees celsius overnight areas further to the east will likely see overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Friday night (simulated radar above): This is when stronger jet stream upper level winds will enter southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon this will gradually move to the east throughout the day a strong southwesterly level flow will occur. For those wondering this is the weather event that prompted my title for the blog and I am actually not surprised considering that this is Manitoba we will be expecting our first round of severe thunderstorms possible on Friday and Friday evening. It appears that our temperatures on Friday will be a lot warmer compared to earlier in the week where our high values could soar into the high teens low 20s in some areas of the southwest and Red River valley could rise into the mid 20s during the afternoon with humidity values pushing the thirty degrees Celsius Mark . In regards to the details of this event are still being figured out in weather models there are still some specifics about the location and timing however current model runs now show a warm front just sitting south of the border during the afternoon which will lift N during the evening and as strong low pressure system also sit there which will draw in strong levels of moisture from the United States. If you're wondering what I mean about moisture I see our dew point temperatures rising into the mid teens in the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba which is more considered to be something you would see in mid June or early July, there will also be a increased level of Cape which is basically what provides thunderstorms to have fuel to run on. The levels will be between 1000 to 2000 joules per kilogram the latest NAM model at 18Z appears to show a stronger area of shear and instability just to the west of Winnipeg. Based on what I am seeing this could very well be our first decent chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms developing, however depending on the cap storms could either start developing in northwestern North Dakota traveling northeast into the Pembina and Red River valley areas into the Interlakes, there is also a likelihood of thunderstorms developing ahead of this along the warm front in the Red River valley and Interlakes. There is also a chance storms dont form at all with the cap in place. Overall this setup does favor strong to severe thunderstorms being a possibility over all areas of the Red River valley eastern Manitoba Interleakes with a slightly lower risk for western portions in Manitoba depending on the frontal position at the time. What this means is convection will likely develop in south central Manitoba or northwestern North Dakota but this is all dependent on a cap which may hinder storms from developing during the afternoon and evening hours we'll see if this setup changes by any means . There is also a very low chance of seeing tornadoes developing during the evening hours we will monitor this if there is any changes to this outlook but please make sure that you're able to stay tuned to alerts and warnings when possible could be something that needs watching. I will have a update on Twitter and on the weather centre of Manitoba in regards to this setup and the outcome on Friday afternoon there will also be a bit of information posted in the comments section which is something that will be done more as we approach what could be very well a busy storm season.

Friday night: It appears that if any thunderstorms form they will likely move into eastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario during the overnight. With a possibility of more thunderstorms on the day Saturday specifically during the early morning hours as the cold frontal passes through. Temperatures actually will remain quite mild on Friday night with overnight low values in the mid teens. Areas a bit further to the West and the WestMan and Parkland regions will likely see overnight low values in and surprisingly quite cool for this time of year with values in the upper single digits. 

Saturday and Sunday: The weekend appears that it could actually be one of those cooler weather days especially Saturday where high temperatures will only rise into the low to mid teens, mostly cloudy skies are likely as you travel into the interlakes regions where high values will only be between five and 10 degrees Celsius. I do think the NAM model however is slightly inaccurate in forecasting values I do believe they will be a bit warmer considering some areas may see Sun during the afternoon which may help increase the level of daytime heating. The second half of the weekend should be much better with sunny skies forecast on Sunday and our high temperatures in the upper teens some areas may approach 20 degrees Celsius in regards to overnight low temperatures expect the average values of mid to high single digits with some areas seeing overnight lows around 10 degrees Celsius. However the cutoff for these temperatures appears to be over the Manitoba Lakes where the lakes water temperatures are still at least cooler or near average this time of year with shores along the lakes could be seeing temperatures between one and five degrees Celsius.

Showers and Thunderstorms Possible On Saturday, calmer weather to follow

Hello Manitobans This is another weather blog update for your weekend weather, We may have an interesting weekend ahead for weather southern sections of our province will be experiencing a many heat wave as a result of an incoming area of low pressure. This will make for the first of what is likely many days of summer weather ahead, There is a possibility of seeing our first decent chance of seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms find out more in this weekend's weather blog. 

Southern sections Manitoba will likely  see high temperatures on Saturday rising well into the 20s there is a possibility that areas specifically at the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba may see values between 25 and 30 degrees celsius this is dependent though on how much of a southerly flow we can draw in ahead of the low pressure system in the warm sector. The low pressure system that is impacting southern sections of Manitoba will move through during the late afternoon hours a general 500 to 800 joules per kilogram of Cape looks to be in place, initiation may take place depending on the timing of the fronts either in southeastern Manitoba or over the Manitoba Lakes. Some model runs had thunderstorms developing over the southern part of Lake Manitoba and moving through the Red River Valley newer model runs now are suggesting thunderstorms developing just to the east of Winnipeg. However Environment Canada still has a 60% chance of seeing showers with the risk of thunderstorms for areas of the Red River valley there is a possibility that areas further west in western Manitoba may also see thunderstorms developed during the afternoon instability along the fronts remains to be quite low however there will be a good chance regardless for some rural parts of the province to see scattered showers or thunderstorms mainly non severe nature. Environment Canada did mention that there is a possibility for a rogue severe wind gust or two however that does not look like it will be a significant concern for the afternoon with thunderstorms that develop.

Saturday night mainly with clear skies are forecast and a awesome overall temperature trend will likely continue with our overnight lows dropping into the low teens for areas of southeastern and south central Manitoba, a little bit further to the west areas in western Manitoba including the parklands maybe a bit cooler with overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Sunday: Beautiful sunny skies are forecast for a majority of our region and a little bit cooler though that is good because we had a little bit of a heat burst forecast on Saturday, General Lee high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens and low 20s. Generally areas north of highway one will only see high temperatures in the mid to high teens areas further north maybe closer to about 15 degrees. 

Sunday Night: Much of southern Manitoba is going to be experiencing a colder air mass on Sunday night with a majority of our lows actually dropping closer to the normal temperatures we see in April or March with lows between two to five or six degrees. The good news is that mainly clear skies are forecast during the overnight. 

Moran settled weather conditions are possible during the first half of the week with high temperatures continuing to remain seasonal mainly in the high teens and low 20s and overnight lows in the upper single digits and low teens, there is a possibility for more shower thunderstorm activity during Tuesday into Wednesday we will know more by the beginning of the week.

Warmer weather and sunnier conditions on the way, possible change to wetter conditions for the coming week

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba and those weather watchers in the southern part of the province we have an update on the weather for the weekend into early next week we'll see if we can add some information about the weather into the 2nd half of the week. On the heels of a low pressure system which impacted majority of southern Manitoba over the last couple of days is now moving into northwestern Ontario behind it a large area of high pressure will develop which will bring us slightly cooler temperatures to start the weekend however as we get into start the week it appears that we could have a return to warmer than normal conditions. Bottom line of beautiful weekend is more than likely to happen for us. In regards to the amount of rainfall that received areas west of Winnipeg received between 20 and thirty millimeters rain areas of southeastern Manitoba also picked up about 20 to twenty five millimeters of rain areas further north including the Interlakes only picked up about 10 to fifteen millimeters of rain and areas of the southwest also picked up similar amounts. I have attached three photos below with information on where the heaviest rainfall occurred from the CO CRAHS maps.

Saturday: High pressure looks to impact the majority of our region during the weekend specifically Saturday and Sunday could be some of the nicest days we've had in a long time, sunny skies are likely with high temperatures for majority of our region reaching the low teens and some areas may get close to the fifteen degrees celsius mark.

Saturday Night: Southern sections in Manitoba will be in a much cooler air mass on Saturday night as well mostly clear skies are likely however there is a possibility of fog patches developing in the Red River valley the good news is that this will not persist. There is also a low risk of frost for areas of The Western escarpment and areas around the Manitoba Lakes. Temperatures for a majority of the region will drop into the low to mid single digits.

Sunday: This will be one of the warmer days of the weekend and I'm actually kind of surprised with the latest model data suggesting high temperatures in the high teens for a majority of the our region especially if you're gonna be closer to the American border some areas could receive or at least get up to about twenty degrees Celsius this is something we have not seen in a couple weeks. The warmest of the weather is also likely to continue as we head into the week details on that below. 

Sunday Night: Overnight low temperatures will likely stay warmer again during the overnight. Sunday instead of seeing our little values drop closer to zero our low values will drop closer to the 10 degrees Celsius mark so that's a switch up from what we are forecast to see on Saturday night.

The week ahead: it looks like much of southern Manitoba will be in a warmer temperature pattern however a little pressure system is expected to impact southern Manitoba during the day on Tuesday through Thursday,  There is a possibility however that this system decides to move W further into Saskatchewan and Alberta there is a possibility that this may change depending on where the position sets up but a majority of the rain is likely to impact the Western prairies.We're still figuring out the details about this system. If the forecast changes and we get rain for our region during the week it'll be welcome news for our farmers.