Manitoba Spring Outlook 2012

It has definitely been a long dreary winter for us in Manitoba with the continuous days of seeing temperatures in the minuses, snowfall and of course the cold blasts of wind from the windchill. Although spring is around the corner and not far off, only 10 days away. So with the return to budding of the trees, greening of the grass and warmer weather. What can we expect for the spring of 2012 here in Manitoba? Well taking into account the lack of snow cover over Manitoba this winter, the steady weakening of La Nina, Long Range Forecast Models, and the current/forecasted conditions of the Arctic Oscillation. We can expect to see a very welcoming Spring For Manitoba!

Overall we can expect above normal temperatures across most of the Province including here in Southern Manitoba, and Winnipeg. Areas in the northernmost regions will experience more normal temperatures for their region. On Average Temperatures will be in and around the 20C range in the south, and in the North around the mid teens.The Warm air will be a result of the Positive Arctic Oscillation, and a very strong northerly tracked jet stream that will keep all of the Arctic air locked up in Alaska and in British Columbia (as shown on the temperature map above). If you are wondering about any cold weather, that won't be a big issue. If we experience any below normal temperatures they will be very short lived and very minimal. If all goes well this trend will continue into the summer months with a possible emergence of El Nino as projected by various models, meaning a continuation of this warm weather and a return to possible wetter than normal weather conditions.

Those wondering about our precipitation we can expect to see normal precipitation amounts across most of the province including big towns like Winnipeg,Dauphin,Brandon and Winkler. The frequency and amounts will increase as you go northward especially in northernmost communities in Manitoba. This expected pattern is a result of an active storm track that will position itself over the northern prairies, resulting in lower amounts over central and southern Manitoba. On average expect 300mm in total for the southern part of the province, and 500 mm for the northern part of the province. That might mean we could have a lesser chance for flooding, but an increased risk for a drought down the road her in southern Manitoba!

Let's hope our spring turns out as forecasted!
Check out the spring weather forecasted by theweathernetwork, and Accuweather.

Records smashed as Warm March weather continues!

An unseasonably warm push of pacific air over the weekend in southern Manitoba, made for several record high temperatures yesterday. That included Winnipeg where a high of 12.8C was recorded,dominating the previous record set back on March 11th of 1981 at 12.5C. Other records that were broken included a very warm 14.8C in Pinawa (previous record 13.2C in 1995) and 14.6C in Melita. Where was the hottest in Manitoba yesterday? It was Wasagaming in Riding Mountain National Park at 15.8C. Other records Across Manitoba were broken as well.

Temperature Outlook for March 21st to 28th,
notice how the warm weather covers most of
North America

The record warm weather is expected to continue over the rest of the week and into next week with temperatures remaining well above normal and in the range of 7C to 25C for daytime highs and overnight lows above zero in between -1C and 14C. All of the warm temperatures will aid in melting the rest of the snow pack, hopefully it will be gone by the end of this week. More record highs possible for the rest of the week as listed below!

(Information above and below Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

Date... REC HIGH (year) - Winnipeg Airport (data since 1872)

Sun 11 ..... 12.8C (2012) (prev 12.5C 1981)
Mon 12 ..... 9.7C (2012) (prev 7.2C 1922)
Tue 13 ..... 12.2C (1902) (11.7C 2012)Wed 14 .... 11.4C (1981) (10.2C 2012)
Thu 15 ..... 14.4C (2012) (prev 11.1C 1927)
Fri 16 ...... 12.4C (1981)
Sat 17 ...... 12.8C (1938)
Sun 18 ..... 14.4C (1910)
Mon 19 .... 18.9C (1938)

Warmer Weather Headed our way!

Expect today to be the coldest day of the week after an area of low pressure made it's way through our area, bringing with it snow over some parts and behind it cool arctic air that will sink south throughout the day. Warm Weather will return by Saturday, as the cold air will stay locked up in the arctic with a strong positive AO, and a strong west to east zonal flow. If we get any cool blasts they will be very short lived.

Upper Level Pattern over
the next few days

All models are suggesting that this trend will likely continue, with temperatures remaining above zero across southern Manitoba for the next few weeks. Hopefully the warm weather will melt some of the snow we have received over the past several weeks. Although how warm we will get really depends on how much snowcover we have, areas around winnipeg will likely see the warmer air earlier as their is a less dense snowcover, and the black sod from farmers feilds should really help keep the heat, and melt the snow. Those who like warm weather it's just around the Corner!

For more details and info on the forecasted warm weather try these links: Environment Canada Weather for Manitoba, Accuweather Manitoba Forecasts, Weathernetwork Manitoba Forecasts, Wunderground Manitoba Weather, CBC Manitoba John Sauder and Unisys Weather 850 MB Temperature Loop

I'll have my spring outlook for Manitoba this weekend, Stay Tuned!

                                         (Top Right: Brett Anderson's ECMWF Model; Middle: AO Index; Bottom: Accuweather Pattern Forecast)

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                

Active Weather Map for: Tuesday March 6th,2012

Image Courtesy of AWWS

I will be using these images when active weather is happening in manitoba! Look for more over the coming months!

String of deadly Tornadoes hits the United States

Setup for the tornado outbreak of March 2nd,2012

_{As I mentioned back on Friday morning there was going to be a possible tornado outbreak for today, that's exactly what happened. Through Friday a total of fifteen states were hammered by the worst Tornado Outbreak in Years! The day started off fairly vigorous for people in the states, at 6am a squall line of thunderstorms along the cold front marched eastward through the plains bringing intense frequent lightning, hail to the size of golf balls at times, and high winds in excess of 60+ miles/hr or 96 km/hr. That same line moved eastward with the cold front throughout the morning into the eastern states, where it entered the warm moist gulf air mass and high shear environment. As a result it transformed into a line of tornado producing super cells at 9am.That is when the first few Tornadoes started. At around 9 am a Tornado hit North of Huntsville Alabama. The Tornado Apparently severely damaged houses and heavily damaged a high school.}

(Left: Truck on it's side in front of a gas station, in Henryville,IN)

_{Later On in the afternoon a long lived Tornadic Supercell Formed just north of the Ohio river dropping tornadoes in communities of southern Indiana including Marysville and Henryville.The Community of 1000 people in Marysville was completely destroyed, the nearby town of henrysville was also destroyed. One resident describes the scene like a war zone! "Cars were thrown across the road,street signs were down, homes were decimated, the metal in the ground, the railings for the roads were completely ripped out of the ground and some were in cars. As well Semis and Trucks were overturned." Many other communities were affected by the tornadoes in Indiana during the afternoon hours.}

Radar Image of the tornado entering West Liberty,Kentucky

Tornado Damage in West Liberty,Kentucky

_{Once the evening hours came around (approx 5pm CDT) another Tornado extensively damaged the downtown region of West Liberty,Kentucky.This Time it was affected by an EF3 Tornado, with winds in excess of 220 km/h.}

 

 Data Courtesy of Accuweather.Weathermatrix.com

Satellite Image of the tornado outbreak as it was occurring

Tornado Stats

Death Toll: 31 and rising*
States Affected: 15*
Total Warnings: 660
Area Covered: 38,000 sq. mi.
Tornado Warnings: 281
Severe Thunderstorm: 356
Lightning Strikes: 156,399
Total Spotter Rpts: 809
Tornado Reports: 95
Funnel Cloud: 51*
Wind Reports: 246
Hail Reports: 417

Overall It was a significant Tornado Outbreak, one we will not forget for a long time! there were many stories of survival, courage, and miracles during the recovery efforts, yet they still continue. I can guarantee you those stories will be featured on the news over the next few days. To find out how you can help please visit: http://www.redcross.org/contactus/

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible in the States Today

After a brief reprieve from severe weather in the states on Thursday, expect another possible round today. The Storm Prediction centre has issued a high risk outlook for Kentucky, Moderate risk for states surrounding Kentucky, and a slight risk for all other areas. All of this is forecast with a warm layer of surface temperatures in the teens to the twenties, increasing moisture values, ML CAPE in excess of 1500 to 2000 J/KG. As well with an increase in deep layer flow shear/effective bulk shear near 70 knots and effective SRH of 300-400 M2/S2. Combine all these values and a cold front that will go through this will produce numerous severe thunderstorms and a risk for dangerous tornadoes.

Already as of 12 noon CDT there have been numerous reports of severe weather in the states including reports of hail the size of quarters in places ranging from Florissant in St. Louis County to Hermann, about 60 miles southwest of St. Louis. And there have already been 2 reports of tornadoes in Huntsville, Alabama leveling houses and damaging a school and a jail. There is still more severe weather on the way, please take caution and listen to your NOAA weather radio's for more updates.
Also: Head here
I will have a full summary on the tornadoes tomorrow. For all those weather geeks, you will have a good read tomorrow as my post will be long (longer than this one)!

Expect snow Today and another day of possible Severe Weather in the States

After a repreive from snow over the past several weeks, expect another round today as an area of low pressure and a trowal moves across and along the international border. Bringing with it a large swath of snow ranging from 2 to 10 cm across the red river valley and the south. As of last night we have recieved a total of 6cm already. Expect the snow to taper off later this afternoon as the system moves east into Ontario and Minnesota. Cooler weather can be expected into monday before we see a return to very mild conditions.
I will have details later on a  possible tornado outbreak in the states expected today,as it begins unfolding. As well I'll have an outlook into our spring this year in a week or so!

Snowfall totals from March 2nd,2012

(Snow from a few weeks ago)

(Stats from and courtesy of Rob's Blog)

That system sure gave Manitobans a surprise, we got more snow than first thought. Snowfalltotals were in and around 10 cm in winnipeg and across the N RRV, and as much as 20cm over the southern red river valley. Snowfall warnings were issued in Morden,Winkler, and Altona because of the signifiant accumulations. That's no surprise considering we we were lucky all winter.(Right: Just look at the difference in snowcover from a few weeks ago, compared to what we have now)


Snow as of yesterday

Winnipeg.......... 10-12 cm
Stony Mtn ........ 9 cm
Landmark ........ 10 cm
Steinbach ......... 10 cm
St Labre ............ 16 cm /SE of Steinbach/
Winkler ............. 19 cm
Morden ............. 15 cm
Altona ............... 15 cm
Pinawa.............. 12 cm
Falcon Lake ...... 6 cm