Blog Update Coming Soon!

Later today I will provide a post detailing this weekend's storm potential, there still is a lot of uncertainty on where the storms will occur and where the tornado threat will evolve. Once I am more certain, and find more information the post will be provided...

Thunderstorms Set To Roll In Tonight To The Red River Valley (Graphics only)

Our Hot Week Set to End with a Bang!

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Temperatures are ready to soar for the rest of the week as a heat source from the Gulf of Mexico builds into the southern portion of the province. Everyone across all of Southern Manitoba should begin to prepare for a potentially dangerous end of week powerful low pressure system that will threaten the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season.


850mb theta-e (a form of measuring temperature) chart valid for 06Z Thursday 07 June. 

The above picture with the red arrows very well depicts the advection of a warm Gulf of Mexico airmass into our region, (theta-e is basically a form of measuring temperature). A southerly flow aloft, aided by a long wave trough over British Columbia to our west and a blocking high to our East will bring us the hottest days we have experienced this year, throughout the rest of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the 25C to 30C range through the second half of this week.       

Postion of fronts and weather at 00Z Friday

 A weak low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba throughout Thursday night, ahead of the main upper level feature. Even though dynamics don't look to great for severe weather, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and evening hours they will intensify aqnd slowly move east-northeastwards. While tornadoes will not be likely with the storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, CAPE values near 1250 to 1750 J/kg combined with Lifted Indicies near -5 and 20 to 30 Shear should be enough for large hail according to Brad. The possible slow moving nature of the line of storms could produce a risk for heavy rainfall with as much as 30+mm falling over a short period of time. While showers will be common over the southwest portion of the province on Thursday, the chance for showers does extend eastwards through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation will fall with the thunderstorms that will develop in the evening.

Although this is still 36 hours away and things could change a lot between now and then. According to Brad "models still are having a hard degrading the blocking pattern that is in place right now ,and some are much more progressive with features and some are much slower."  If things end up more progressive than the look now, there may be a small storm threat for Thursday night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 2 (00Z to 18Z June 08).

Brad says " That taking into account the various speeds, the current area that might see storms on Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the area bounded from the US border north to Brandon, up towards Dauphin/Swan River, then eastwards across the Interlake and southwards down the eastern Red River Valley. Storms will exit through the Central/Northern Whiteshell. Friday will yet again be another warm day;debris cloud left behind from Thursday Night's convection should clear around lunch time which will hopefully allow the sunshine to warm us to the mid to high 20's. Dewpoints look to build in the afternoon pushing up to the 18C or 19C degrees making it feel quite humid. The main frontal system is set to move in on the weekend, and what a system it looks to be.


SPC Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

According to Brad "We’ll be under the influence of two strong shortwaves that will push copious amounts of instability over Southern Manitoba. CAPE values look to exceed 2500 J/kg and potentially be as high as 5000-5500 J/kg; this, combined with a weak cap north of the warm front and favorable shear profiles looks to point at a potent setup for severe thunderstorms with high probabilities of (extremely) large hail, strong winds, and elevated risks of tornadoes." From My perspective it looks like this setup will be similar to June 22nd and 23rd 2007 tornado event that featured Canada's first F5 Tornado in Elie and that also resulted in 6 other dangerous tornadoes in Southwestern Manitoba.

More Details will be available throughout the next couple days on Twitter and some on my blog post on this potentially serious Storm Outbreak.

Hot and Wonderful Start to June....

After a beautiful weekend mixed in with Stormy Conditions, we will end up sticking with the hot weather to start the week. An omega block will start to gradually build in this week, allowing us to keep experiencing the warm weather we have had over the past week.

Omega block building in for midweek

Day 6 and 7 outlook from the SPC

 Tuesday will be the nicest and hottest day of the week with high temperatures cracking the 30C mark, along with sunny conditions, low humidity and a comfortable breeze. Temperatures will be pretty much the same for Wednesday with highs again near 30C, as we grab a little bit of a south-easterly flow. Thursday looks to remain very warm, and continue into the first half of the weekend with an increased chance for storm activity as another low pressure system approaches from the plains. The SPC has even highlighted a day 6 and 7 outlook for our area, mentioning a 30%+ chance of seeing any severe storm within a 25 mile radius. I will keep you up to date as this progresses, and a post will be available on Friday on this storm system.

Stormy Sunday on the Way

After a beautiful start to the weekend, things are about to change. A Low Pressure system will sweep through Southern Manitoba over the next 24 hours bringing a possibility of more showers and storms to some regions in the southern part of the province. 

Wonderful Overnight Temperatures in Manitoba (Shown on the GFSX 850 MB Temperature Model)

Tonight things will start to cloud over ahead of a warm front where we will see the possibilty of the odd shower or two with a chance for a storm, as they move in from Saskatchewan. Showers mainly can be expected in areas of Southwest Manitoba, towards the parkland's region. Temperatures will also be in and around 15C in many regions although closer to 10C in the interlakes, during the overnight hours.  

However, a Mesoscale convective system is forecast to form in Montana and drift Northeastward into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southwest Manitoba, tonight through through the early morning tomorrow along a cold front. Although, the area of convection and showers will outstrip the cold front & warm front, and move fairly fast through the rest of the southern part of the province through the morning. Things will clear out late in the morning allowing for our temperatures to rise into the mid 20's by mid afternoon, with a moist airmass in place. 

850 MB Dewpoint Forecast at 18 UTC, showing 15C dewpoints in Southern Manitoba at 12 noon.

Thing's will start to change for the worst by late afternoon. We will have Temperatures in the Mid 20's and Dewpoints near 16C, if the Dewpoints can get that high MLCAPES will be in the 1000 J/KG range along with SBCAPES rising towards 1,580 J/KG at 3pm. Deep Shear Around 40 knots will also be available. This will be a perfect brewing environment for Severe Thunderstorms that will likely form along a cold front somewhere West Of Winnipeg. The Storms will move likely contain large hail and damaging winds & isolated tornadoes, as they move along east into Ontario by Evening. So I do expect that Environment Canada may mention a chance for showers or thunderstorms in tomorrow morning's forecast issuance at 5am and likely at 11am. Also keep in mind that they may also issue severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and warnings if needed.


Temperatures on Monday and for the rest of the week will continue to stay above average, despite the passage of that cold front. Models are also trending at a possible ridge by late week, maybe allowing our temperatures to reach the low 30's along with high humidity. I will have a post detailing that situation on Wednesday if things hold True.

Weather Graphic's of The Day

A trough will move through our area allowing For scattered Thunderstorms to take place, that will likely be at heights of 32,000 feet implied on the Map as SCT CB 320.

Warmer with a Chance for Thunderstorms

(Weather Information provided in part by Brad from A Weather Moment and by Mike the Author)

A weak trough moving across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, producing some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Thing's look to clear out quickly, and we will be getting temperatures in the mid to high 20's for the weekend.


Forecasted rainfall from the GEM-GLB Model, from 00Z friday to 12Z saturday

We will have a little bit more of an unsettled day today as we see a weak surface trough feature move through our area in the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb to to over the 20C mark this afternoon before showers or thunderstorms develop over sections of Southwest Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. According to Brad "Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment." It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain potential will be through the Western Red River Valley, with chances diminishing east of the Red River. By the time the trough sets up shop in the whiteshell, the threat of Precipitation will likely be over.
Saturday will be a gorgeous day as we see sunshine dominate across Southern Manitoba and daytime highs will climb to around 25C. Things will turn a little bit more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain and storms blossom's over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain and storms is still uncertain, however best indications are that we will see a cloudy day in the Red River Valley with the bulk of the rain passing north of the City. areas likely in the interlake area will receive rainfall, with only a small chance for showers or storms for Winnipeg and South. I will keep an eye on this system as the weekend progresses.