Bring On The Heat!

This whole week will feature warm and hot weather in all of Southern Manitoba, a trend that will continue for the next 2 weeks.

An Animation of forecast Temperatures at 850MB from 00Z Today Through until Thursday 5 July at 00Z

 Starting off our big story, it looks like we will see a wonderful night in Southern Manitoba tonight with temperatures near 20C for overnight lows. A high pressure system will be in place throughout the Day tomorrow, pumping warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico allowing our temperatures to get into the high 20's and possibly mid 30's. Tomorrow the humidity will increase substantially, as our temperatures climb to 30 degrees making it feel more like the 40's. The heat will last until on Wednesday when we see a cold front push through the province. Although on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the temperatures will be a little cooler but above 20C. Another ridge is expected to build on Saturday as we see a return to warmer than normal weather with temperatures above 30C and some humidity.

 A look at CAPE values during the Tuesday Overnight period

As for Thunderstorm Activity, the regions that certainly will see severe weather include the southern part of Saskatchewan throughout the night tonight and tomorrow afternoon. There still may be that threat in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, although it is less clear. The best chance for seeing thunderstorms in the Red River Valley will be Tuesday Night through until Wednesday Morning as storms that form over Saskatchewan Drift into the southern part of the province during the overnight hours. Though, these storms will happen after dark they may still be severe as they will have a 40 knot LLJ to work with. As for other portions of the province including SW Manitoba there may be a risk for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon especially near the Saskatchewan border, as some storms may enter from Saskatchewan.

Overall look for a potentially stormy hot week this week and next week, if you like the stormy hot weather,

My last 2 blog posts for a while, will be on the way Tomorrow

Hello Everyone I apologize for the lack of blog updates, I will be providing some of the most detailed weather information that you have seen me write in a long time tomorrow afternoon. I will detail what will occur in the weather for the next 2 weeks, so everyone will be advised of weather patterns while I’m away on Vacation. I am not going to disclose where I exactly will be staying and when, all I can say is that I am going on Vacation. I hope you all look forward to seeing my post, remember I'm an amateur and I will try my absolute best to be accurate. Have a great night, will look forward to your visit Tomorrow.

Convective Probability Forecast For Today's Thunderstorms

 Head Over to HRRR NOAA for more graphics

Another Stormy Day On The Way Tomorrow; Warmer Weather on the Way

Possible showers and storms tomorrow will be welcomed with upper level ridging that will allow for our temperatures to start rising into the 20's and even low 30's later this week into the weekend and next week.

Showers And Storms Likely Tomorrow from Noon Through the Evening hours, in the Interlakes, Winnipeg and most of the Red River Valley.

The rest of the showers and storms will taper off this evening as they move into Ontario along with the main area of low pressure, leaving behind it conditions ranging from partly cloudy to clear across the Southern half of the province. Although temperatures won't be too bad, likely near the  low double digit ranges in all regions of the province it will provide for a very comfortable evening if you are heading out. Tomorrow will be a similar story but not as cloudy. The sun will be out throughout the morning and early afternoon hours allowing our temperatures in Southern Manitoba to rise into the high teens and low twenties, before another small front brushes past the province in the afternoon and evening. As this front slides by expect the formation of showers and storms in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba as the daytime heating is combined with an area of lift along the front. Storms will generally be non severe in nature, although a few could reach severe limits for hail up to toonies and heavy rainfall.

Ridging will build into this weekend

Tomorrow will also mark a shift in our weather pattern, as a ridge starts to build into the province getting our temperatures into a warming trend. That ridge will continue to build into the weekend letting Sunshine take hold over the province and aid in getting a boost of our temperatures and humidity levels. It is definitely going to give us some time to dry out, especially for those in SW Manitoba who have received well over 240mm of rain in the past few weeks.

Today's Tip: A look at the legend of the NWS Weather Map (top picture) 

Another Weekend of Unsettled Weather

(Some Information Provided by Brad From A Weather Moment)

Today will be another beautiful day for the start of the Red River Exhibition as temperatures near the mid 20C range anywhere in the southern part of the province, with very little cloud cover to contend with. Although things are about to turn active for the weekend with the arrival of more low pressure systems that will move over our region.

An area of rain/storms will form in SE Sask, Western North Dakota tonight at 6pm and it will drift eastwards throughout the night.

An area of low pressure is expected to trek eastwards across the prairies and northern plains today, as a result things will become more favourable for the development of thunderstorms tonight. As the system tracks into SW Manitoba and Western North Dakota tonight, storms should have very little issue popping up. With decent instability, the storms should quickly grow into an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms and likely trek East-Northeast. The area of rain will get to the SW by late evening, Red River Valley late overnight and get through to eastern Manitoba by the morning and afternoon. With little LLJ influence in place it will likely keep the thunderstorm threat to a minimum with the rain that pushes through. Although the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some Models are forecasting up to near 10 and 15mm of rain over the next 3 to 6 hours. This system looks a lot similar to last weekends storm system, so it may end up prompting more stormchasers to head out if severe weather develops. As the area of low pressure tracks through the rest of Manitoba tomorrow, we will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Chances will be higher North of Morris, that would include Winnipeg and areas North.
 

Another Round Of Storms, Possibly Some Severe On Sunday

The threat of severe weather returns to Southern Manitoba on Sunday as another powerful low pressure system moves into the area. Dewpoints will rapidly climb up into the high teens/low twenties on Sunday, especially in regions of SW Manitoba as a powerful southerly flow develops out ahead of the incoming storm system. CAPE values will likely climb past 2000 J/Kg with decent shear. Tornado potential exists and looks to be near the Western Red River Valley, including Pilot Mound,Crystal City, Manitou, Pembina Valley Provincial Park, Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris. All areas South and West of Winnipeg. The closer to the USA border you live, the greater the risk for tornado producing Supercells. As the storm system travels eastwards into the Red River Valley by evening things should blow up fairly good, with widespread thunderstorms growing quickly into an MCS. Damaging Winds and large hail will most certainly be a threat for areas in the RRV. Sunday's forecast is sensitive to the systems speed. If it ends up being slower everything will be further West, If faster everything will be further East.

Details on the coming storm systems will be available on Twitter and in my Blog Commentary

A Return to Some Stormier Weather

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Parts of Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk for thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and some humidity will slowly build into the region, as a trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before it tracks eastwards across the Prairie region later this week.

 We will warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through the region overnight. Daytime temperatures should be near the 25C mark through most areas of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal system will be along the international border with a trough extending to the NW towards a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba this afternoon and slowly track eastwards into the RRV. According to Brad ``It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above)` The showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the interlake overnight while temperatures drop to the low to mid teens in most of the South.

For Thursday a north to south band of showers with the embedded thunderstorm will likely form over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will likely move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. The potential exists for 50mm in rainfall accumulations, I will keep a close eye on this as things develop.

Friday looks like it will be a nice day with comfortable humidity and daytime temperatures near 20C. Brad notes that A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday. 

Significant Tornado Threat In Southern Manitoba Saturday

A slow moving area of low pressure pushing into our region this weekend will set the stage for the potential of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous flooding, extremely large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes.

 A look at the slow moving low pressure system that is set to roll into Southern Manitoba on saturday with the Severe Thunderstorm coverage risk map.

The main surface low starts to move into our area on Saturday, bringing a warm front up from the Northern plains of North Dakota into Southern Manitoba. 
So what will the atmosphere have available for the Storm's Tomorrow? Looking at Data Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment 

• Moisture: Plentiful. Surface dewpoints will be sitting near 20°C across Southern Manitoba, with 850mb dewpoints pushing up towards 15-17°C. This deep layer of moisture will provide plenty of energy for storms to work with.
• Instability: The major inhibition to storms will be a layer of warm air at 700mb. Temperatures will climb to 10-13°C at 700mb on Saturday morning, however cooler air will push in later in the afternoon, helping destabilize the mid-levels. LI values of -8 to -11, combined with CAPE values anywhere from 2500 J/kg to 5500 J/kg are evidence of an extremely unstable atmosphere.
• Shear: With a decent upper-level jet pushing in through the day, most areas across southwest and south-central Manitoba will see bulk shear values increase to 30-40kt by evening.
• Trigger: A warm front draped across Southern Manitoba will be strong enough to initiate convection in the mid-to-late afternoon as the cap begins to erode.

Overall models are having a hard time deciding on the speed of this system, but they agree that it has the potential to produce dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest difficulty is predicting where they will form, current indications are that the greatest threat for tornadoes will likely occur in a the region from North of grand Forks towards and north of the Canadian Border. This would likely include the Red river Valley and into Winnipeg and North. Although if this turns out to be different SW Manitoba might be under the gun, for tornadoes. So overall here is the Risk Map for Saturday:

The Latest Storm Prediction Centre Severe Weather Outlook, areas hatched in red indicates the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

                                                                                                                                         According to Brad "large MCS will likely develop as the whole system lifts northwards overnight, which will continue to provide a severe weather threat in the form of strong winds and large hail. It will push through the RRV by Sunday morning. We may see the threat for another round of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, however they are not expected to be severe. Things will finally cool off on Monday as the main upper low moves through and draws in cooler, dryer air from the west.