No Blog Posts for A While

Hello Everyone, I will not be available to provide weather updates over the Blog and on Twitter for a while as I am spending time out on Vacation. So I am directing you to A Weather Moment, and Rob's Blog for Weather Information. You can also use the links provided on My Weather links Section, for the 2 week period. I will see you all in the first week of July!

Bring On The Heat!

This whole week will feature warm and hot weather in all of Southern Manitoba, a trend that will continue for the next 2 weeks.

An Animation of forecast Temperatures at 850MB from 00Z Today Through until Thursday 5 July at 00Z

 Starting off our big story, it looks like we will see a wonderful night in Southern Manitoba tonight with temperatures near 20C for overnight lows. A high pressure system will be in place throughout the Day tomorrow, pumping warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico allowing our temperatures to get into the high 20's and possibly mid 30's. Tomorrow the humidity will increase substantially, as our temperatures climb to 30 degrees making it feel more like the 40's. The heat will last until on Wednesday when we see a cold front push through the province. Although on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the temperatures will be a little cooler but above 20C. Another ridge is expected to build on Saturday as we see a return to warmer than normal weather with temperatures above 30C and some humidity.

 A look at CAPE values during the Tuesday Overnight period

As for Thunderstorm Activity, the regions that certainly will see severe weather include the southern part of Saskatchewan throughout the night tonight and tomorrow afternoon. There still may be that threat in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, although it is less clear. The best chance for seeing thunderstorms in the Red River Valley will be Tuesday Night through until Wednesday Morning as storms that form over Saskatchewan Drift into the southern part of the province during the overnight hours. Though, these storms will happen after dark they may still be severe as they will have a 40 knot LLJ to work with. As for other portions of the province including SW Manitoba there may be a risk for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon especially near the Saskatchewan border, as some storms may enter from Saskatchewan.

Overall look for a potentially stormy hot week this week and next week, if you like the stormy hot weather,

My last 2 blog posts for a while, will be on the way Tomorrow

Hello Everyone I apologize for the lack of blog updates, I will be providing some of the most detailed weather information that you have seen me write in a long time tomorrow afternoon. I will detail what will occur in the weather for the next 2 weeks, so everyone will be advised of weather patterns while I’m away on Vacation. I am not going to disclose where I exactly will be staying and when, all I can say is that I am going on Vacation. I hope you all look forward to seeing my post, remember I'm an amateur and I will try my absolute best to be accurate. Have a great night, will look forward to your visit Tomorrow.

Convective Probability Forecast For Today's Thunderstorms

 Head Over to HRRR NOAA for more graphics

Another Stormy Day On The Way Tomorrow; Warmer Weather on the Way

Possible showers and storms tomorrow will be welcomed with upper level ridging that will allow for our temperatures to start rising into the 20's and even low 30's later this week into the weekend and next week.

Showers And Storms Likely Tomorrow from Noon Through the Evening hours, in the Interlakes, Winnipeg and most of the Red River Valley.

The rest of the showers and storms will taper off this evening as they move into Ontario along with the main area of low pressure, leaving behind it conditions ranging from partly cloudy to clear across the Southern half of the province. Although temperatures won't be too bad, likely near the  low double digit ranges in all regions of the province it will provide for a very comfortable evening if you are heading out. Tomorrow will be a similar story but not as cloudy. The sun will be out throughout the morning and early afternoon hours allowing our temperatures in Southern Manitoba to rise into the high teens and low twenties, before another small front brushes past the province in the afternoon and evening. As this front slides by expect the formation of showers and storms in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba as the daytime heating is combined with an area of lift along the front. Storms will generally be non severe in nature, although a few could reach severe limits for hail up to toonies and heavy rainfall.

Ridging will build into this weekend

Tomorrow will also mark a shift in our weather pattern, as a ridge starts to build into the province getting our temperatures into a warming trend. That ridge will continue to build into the weekend letting Sunshine take hold over the province and aid in getting a boost of our temperatures and humidity levels. It is definitely going to give us some time to dry out, especially for those in SW Manitoba who have received well over 240mm of rain in the past few weeks.

Today's Tip: A look at the legend of the NWS Weather Map (top picture) 

Another Weekend of Unsettled Weather

(Some Information Provided by Brad From A Weather Moment)

Today will be another beautiful day for the start of the Red River Exhibition as temperatures near the mid 20C range anywhere in the southern part of the province, with very little cloud cover to contend with. Although things are about to turn active for the weekend with the arrival of more low pressure systems that will move over our region.

An area of rain/storms will form in SE Sask, Western North Dakota tonight at 6pm and it will drift eastwards throughout the night.

An area of low pressure is expected to trek eastwards across the prairies and northern plains today, as a result things will become more favourable for the development of thunderstorms tonight. As the system tracks into SW Manitoba and Western North Dakota tonight, storms should have very little issue popping up. With decent instability, the storms should quickly grow into an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms and likely trek East-Northeast. The area of rain will get to the SW by late evening, Red River Valley late overnight and get through to eastern Manitoba by the morning and afternoon. With little LLJ influence in place it will likely keep the thunderstorm threat to a minimum with the rain that pushes through. Although the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some Models are forecasting up to near 10 and 15mm of rain over the next 3 to 6 hours. This system looks a lot similar to last weekends storm system, so it may end up prompting more stormchasers to head out if severe weather develops. As the area of low pressure tracks through the rest of Manitoba tomorrow, we will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Chances will be higher North of Morris, that would include Winnipeg and areas North.
 

Another Round Of Storms, Possibly Some Severe On Sunday

The threat of severe weather returns to Southern Manitoba on Sunday as another powerful low pressure system moves into the area. Dewpoints will rapidly climb up into the high teens/low twenties on Sunday, especially in regions of SW Manitoba as a powerful southerly flow develops out ahead of the incoming storm system. CAPE values will likely climb past 2000 J/Kg with decent shear. Tornado potential exists and looks to be near the Western Red River Valley, including Pilot Mound,Crystal City, Manitou, Pembina Valley Provincial Park, Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris. All areas South and West of Winnipeg. The closer to the USA border you live, the greater the risk for tornado producing Supercells. As the storm system travels eastwards into the Red River Valley by evening things should blow up fairly good, with widespread thunderstorms growing quickly into an MCS. Damaging Winds and large hail will most certainly be a threat for areas in the RRV. Sunday's forecast is sensitive to the systems speed. If it ends up being slower everything will be further West, If faster everything will be further East.

Details on the coming storm systems will be available on Twitter and in my Blog Commentary

A Return to Some Stormier Weather

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Parts of Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk for thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and some humidity will slowly build into the region, as a trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before it tracks eastwards across the Prairie region later this week.

 We will warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through the region overnight. Daytime temperatures should be near the 25C mark through most areas of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal system will be along the international border with a trough extending to the NW towards a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba this afternoon and slowly track eastwards into the RRV. According to Brad ``It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above)` The showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the interlake overnight while temperatures drop to the low to mid teens in most of the South.

For Thursday a north to south band of showers with the embedded thunderstorm will likely form over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will likely move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. The potential exists for 50mm in rainfall accumulations, I will keep a close eye on this as things develop.

Friday looks like it will be a nice day with comfortable humidity and daytime temperatures near 20C. Brad notes that A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday. 

Significant Tornado Threat In Southern Manitoba Saturday

A slow moving area of low pressure pushing into our region this weekend will set the stage for the potential of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous flooding, extremely large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes.

 A look at the slow moving low pressure system that is set to roll into Southern Manitoba on saturday with the Severe Thunderstorm coverage risk map.

The main surface low starts to move into our area on Saturday, bringing a warm front up from the Northern plains of North Dakota into Southern Manitoba. 
So what will the atmosphere have available for the Storm's Tomorrow? Looking at Data Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment 

• Moisture: Plentiful. Surface dewpoints will be sitting near 20°C across Southern Manitoba, with 850mb dewpoints pushing up towards 15-17°C. This deep layer of moisture will provide plenty of energy for storms to work with.
• Instability: The major inhibition to storms will be a layer of warm air at 700mb. Temperatures will climb to 10-13°C at 700mb on Saturday morning, however cooler air will push in later in the afternoon, helping destabilize the mid-levels. LI values of -8 to -11, combined with CAPE values anywhere from 2500 J/kg to 5500 J/kg are evidence of an extremely unstable atmosphere.
• Shear: With a decent upper-level jet pushing in through the day, most areas across southwest and south-central Manitoba will see bulk shear values increase to 30-40kt by evening.
• Trigger: A warm front draped across Southern Manitoba will be strong enough to initiate convection in the mid-to-late afternoon as the cap begins to erode.

Overall models are having a hard time deciding on the speed of this system, but they agree that it has the potential to produce dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest difficulty is predicting where they will form, current indications are that the greatest threat for tornadoes will likely occur in a the region from North of grand Forks towards and north of the Canadian Border. This would likely include the Red river Valley and into Winnipeg and North. Although if this turns out to be different SW Manitoba might be under the gun, for tornadoes. So overall here is the Risk Map for Saturday:

The Latest Storm Prediction Centre Severe Weather Outlook, areas hatched in red indicates the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

                                                                                                                                         According to Brad "large MCS will likely develop as the whole system lifts northwards overnight, which will continue to provide a severe weather threat in the form of strong winds and large hail. It will push through the RRV by Sunday morning. We may see the threat for another round of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, however they are not expected to be severe. Things will finally cool off on Monday as the main upper low moves through and draws in cooler, dryer air from the west.

Blog Update Coming Soon!

Later today I will provide a post detailing this weekend's storm potential, there still is a lot of uncertainty on where the storms will occur and where the tornado threat will evolve. Once I am more certain, and find more information the post will be provided...

Thunderstorms Set To Roll In Tonight To The Red River Valley (Graphics only)

Our Hot Week Set to End with a Bang!

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Temperatures are ready to soar for the rest of the week as a heat source from the Gulf of Mexico builds into the southern portion of the province. Everyone across all of Southern Manitoba should begin to prepare for a potentially dangerous end of week powerful low pressure system that will threaten the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season.


850mb theta-e (a form of measuring temperature) chart valid for 06Z Thursday 07 June. 

The above picture with the red arrows very well depicts the advection of a warm Gulf of Mexico airmass into our region, (theta-e is basically a form of measuring temperature). A southerly flow aloft, aided by a long wave trough over British Columbia to our west and a blocking high to our East will bring us the hottest days we have experienced this year, throughout the rest of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the 25C to 30C range through the second half of this week.       

Postion of fronts and weather at 00Z Friday

 A weak low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba throughout Thursday night, ahead of the main upper level feature. Even though dynamics don't look to great for severe weather, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and evening hours they will intensify aqnd slowly move east-northeastwards. While tornadoes will not be likely with the storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, CAPE values near 1250 to 1750 J/kg combined with Lifted Indicies near -5 and 20 to 30 Shear should be enough for large hail according to Brad. The possible slow moving nature of the line of storms could produce a risk for heavy rainfall with as much as 30+mm falling over a short period of time. While showers will be common over the southwest portion of the province on Thursday, the chance for showers does extend eastwards through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation will fall with the thunderstorms that will develop in the evening.

Although this is still 36 hours away and things could change a lot between now and then. According to Brad "models still are having a hard degrading the blocking pattern that is in place right now ,and some are much more progressive with features and some are much slower."  If things end up more progressive than the look now, there may be a small storm threat for Thursday night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 2 (00Z to 18Z June 08).

Brad says " That taking into account the various speeds, the current area that might see storms on Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the area bounded from the US border north to Brandon, up towards Dauphin/Swan River, then eastwards across the Interlake and southwards down the eastern Red River Valley. Storms will exit through the Central/Northern Whiteshell. Friday will yet again be another warm day;debris cloud left behind from Thursday Night's convection should clear around lunch time which will hopefully allow the sunshine to warm us to the mid to high 20's. Dewpoints look to build in the afternoon pushing up to the 18C or 19C degrees making it feel quite humid. The main frontal system is set to move in on the weekend, and what a system it looks to be.


SPC Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

According to Brad "We’ll be under the influence of two strong shortwaves that will push copious amounts of instability over Southern Manitoba. CAPE values look to exceed 2500 J/kg and potentially be as high as 5000-5500 J/kg; this, combined with a weak cap north of the warm front and favorable shear profiles looks to point at a potent setup for severe thunderstorms with high probabilities of (extremely) large hail, strong winds, and elevated risks of tornadoes." From My perspective it looks like this setup will be similar to June 22nd and 23rd 2007 tornado event that featured Canada's first F5 Tornado in Elie and that also resulted in 6 other dangerous tornadoes in Southwestern Manitoba.

More Details will be available throughout the next couple days on Twitter and some on my blog post on this potentially serious Storm Outbreak.

Hot and Wonderful Start to June....

After a beautiful weekend mixed in with Stormy Conditions, we will end up sticking with the hot weather to start the week. An omega block will start to gradually build in this week, allowing us to keep experiencing the warm weather we have had over the past week.

Omega block building in for midweek

Day 6 and 7 outlook from the SPC

 Tuesday will be the nicest and hottest day of the week with high temperatures cracking the 30C mark, along with sunny conditions, low humidity and a comfortable breeze. Temperatures will be pretty much the same for Wednesday with highs again near 30C, as we grab a little bit of a south-easterly flow. Thursday looks to remain very warm, and continue into the first half of the weekend with an increased chance for storm activity as another low pressure system approaches from the plains. The SPC has even highlighted a day 6 and 7 outlook for our area, mentioning a 30%+ chance of seeing any severe storm within a 25 mile radius. I will keep you up to date as this progresses, and a post will be available on Friday on this storm system.

Stormy Sunday on the Way

After a beautiful start to the weekend, things are about to change. A Low Pressure system will sweep through Southern Manitoba over the next 24 hours bringing a possibility of more showers and storms to some regions in the southern part of the province. 

Wonderful Overnight Temperatures in Manitoba (Shown on the GFSX 850 MB Temperature Model)

Tonight things will start to cloud over ahead of a warm front where we will see the possibilty of the odd shower or two with a chance for a storm, as they move in from Saskatchewan. Showers mainly can be expected in areas of Southwest Manitoba, towards the parkland's region. Temperatures will also be in and around 15C in many regions although closer to 10C in the interlakes, during the overnight hours.  

However, a Mesoscale convective system is forecast to form in Montana and drift Northeastward into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southwest Manitoba, tonight through through the early morning tomorrow along a cold front. Although, the area of convection and showers will outstrip the cold front & warm front, and move fairly fast through the rest of the southern part of the province through the morning. Things will clear out late in the morning allowing for our temperatures to rise into the mid 20's by mid afternoon, with a moist airmass in place. 

850 MB Dewpoint Forecast at 18 UTC, showing 15C dewpoints in Southern Manitoba at 12 noon.

Thing's will start to change for the worst by late afternoon. We will have Temperatures in the Mid 20's and Dewpoints near 16C, if the Dewpoints can get that high MLCAPES will be in the 1000 J/KG range along with SBCAPES rising towards 1,580 J/KG at 3pm. Deep Shear Around 40 knots will also be available. This will be a perfect brewing environment for Severe Thunderstorms that will likely form along a cold front somewhere West Of Winnipeg. The Storms will move likely contain large hail and damaging winds & isolated tornadoes, as they move along east into Ontario by Evening. So I do expect that Environment Canada may mention a chance for showers or thunderstorms in tomorrow morning's forecast issuance at 5am and likely at 11am. Also keep in mind that they may also issue severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and warnings if needed.


Temperatures on Monday and for the rest of the week will continue to stay above average, despite the passage of that cold front. Models are also trending at a possible ridge by late week, maybe allowing our temperatures to reach the low 30's along with high humidity. I will have a post detailing that situation on Wednesday if things hold True.

Weather Graphic's of The Day

A trough will move through our area allowing For scattered Thunderstorms to take place, that will likely be at heights of 32,000 feet implied on the Map as SCT CB 320.

Warmer with a Chance for Thunderstorms

(Weather Information provided in part by Brad from A Weather Moment and by Mike the Author)

A weak trough moving across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, producing some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Thing's look to clear out quickly, and we will be getting temperatures in the mid to high 20's for the weekend.


Forecasted rainfall from the GEM-GLB Model, from 00Z friday to 12Z saturday

We will have a little bit more of an unsettled day today as we see a weak surface trough feature move through our area in the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb to to over the 20C mark this afternoon before showers or thunderstorms develop over sections of Southwest Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. According to Brad "Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment." It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain potential will be through the Western Red River Valley, with chances diminishing east of the Red River. By the time the trough sets up shop in the whiteshell, the threat of Precipitation will likely be over.
Saturday will be a gorgeous day as we see sunshine dominate across Southern Manitoba and daytime highs will climb to around 25C. Things will turn a little bit more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain and storms blossom's over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain and storms is still uncertain, however best indications are that we will see a cloudy day in the Red River Valley with the bulk of the rain passing north of the City. areas likely in the interlake area will receive rainfall, with only a small chance for showers or storms for Winnipeg and South. I will keep an eye on this system as the weekend progresses.