Milder Week ahead with Possible Thunderstorms

After a period of cool, uneventful weather things are about to get a little more interesting this week, for people who are living in South Central Manitoba. We will see temperatures close to 20C or warmer in many regions. It won't be all sunshine and games, as we will have to get used to a more active a more active storm track. This will bring multiple storm systems through our area.

We will see a beauty of a day today with daytime temperatures right near 20c, and some sunshine with cloud cover developing in the afternoon from some instabilty lingering from yesterday's system. An area of low pressure tracking it's way into Saskatchewan through the day will be lifting warm air northwards to Southern Manitoba. By this evening, a strong warm front will exist running west to East through Southern Manitoba, with a cold front draped to the south from SW MB to Wyoming. A 30 to 40 knt low level jet will help trigger thunderstorms near the triple point in ND, where additional lift will aid the jet as it rides with the warm front. The first of the storms will likely fire in ND and will begin to lift into Southern Manitoba travelling NE with the upper flow, with more forming as they do so. Once more mature, the storms will begin to tap into the convergence present aloft in a trough extending eastwards from the low heading into Saskatchwan and continue their way across Southern Manitoba. By morning, a line of storms present over most of southern Manitoba will form into a line of rain and showers extending from SE SK to the Mountains.

Thunderstorm outlook for Monday night from A weather Moment Blog

The storms are not expected to be severe, however any regions that may see multiple thunderstorms training over the area could see in excess of 20mm of rain and cool temperatures aloft raise the possiblity of marginally severe hail (which, in Canada, is about the size of a nickel). Current indications are that the greatest risk for hail would be over the south-central RRV and back into the western RRV, from the US Border to near Carmen. Other than that slight risk, no severe weather is expected from the night’s storms. Thing's will continue to lift North on Tuesday, we may see some afternoon showers through the RRV as a second system tracks through the dakota's. Temperatures will be warm though with daytime highs near 20C despite cloudy skies. Wednesday and Thursdy look nice, with more sunny skies. Although another powerful system is forecast to track into our region on Friday bringing with it another possible round of showers and thunderstorms. Updates will be handy for this next system on Twitter.

Above Normal Summerlike Temperatures Expected to Return Sunday



7 day forecast

Sunday Temps



Area of low pressure for Sunday
Night

After a couple days with below normal temperatures, a southerly flow will be setting up to allow for early summerlike mild temperatures to return for southern Manitoba. We have been Under the influence of a strong arctic surface ridge according to a Weather Moment Blog, which has reduced our daytime highs to inbetween 5 and 10C below the normal across southern Manitoba. Overall here is how thing's should pan out, we will see mostly sunny skies with high's in the low teens across the south. Sunday will mark the start of our warmup as the southern low pressure shortwave heads our way after stalling out in Eastern Montana for day or two. We should see temperatures probably climb into the high teens on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds before the system that stalled moves in overnight Sunday. For next week, Monday looks rainy with a potential for thunderstorms if we reach 20C. Then skies are expected to clear and become sunny with highs forecast to surpass 20C. 

Below Normal Temperatures Return

(850 MB Temps Forecast at 18Z Today)

(NWS GF Wx Graphic for Today)

Hello and we are back in operation, after a full week of waiting. So how is our weather holding up? After enjoying the past few days with temperatures a couple of degrees above the normal, a low pressure system backing into Hudson bay will push a cold front southwards across Southern Manitoba throughout the day today. It will bring along with it cooler weather. The cold front will sweep by southern manitoba early this afternoon, with winds forecast to pick up from the North and increase towards 30 and 40 km/h. Scattered showers will develop along and ahead of the front as it pushes south through the red river valley, from the interlake. So most areas in the red river valley will have a chance of seeing some rain early this afternoon. They won't last long though, and as well cooler air will stream on the backside limiting our temps to only get to the low teens for today across the south. Skies will clear quickly tonight as an Arctic high pressure ridge builds in. This cooler weather will continue until the weekend when we see this ridge move off and slowly allow for our temperatures to rebound, although the day on Saturday still may be cool. I will let you know when we can expect a warm up in terms of temperatures.

Also in Weather News I am watching the potential for development of El Nino by the end of the month in the pacific. This would mean a potential for a hotter/more humid and wetter summer in parts of Southern Manitoba. (As Depicted to the left from NOAA). I will keep everyone updated on this as it unfolds

Dangerous and Life threatening Severe Weather Outbreak possible on Saturday for the Great Plains

People who are living in the Midwest, tomorrow could be a very dangerous scenario. The Storm Prediction Centre has issued a high risk severe weather threat for most of Oklahoma, Kansas as well as parts of Nebraska and Iowa. The cities that are included within the high risk region include cities such as Oklahoma City, Wichita, Lincoln, Norfolk and Tulsa. Dr Jeff Masters quotes "Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes."  This is the second time this year the SPC has issued a high risk outlook. Any tornadoes that form could be violent, long lived and long tracked. This could possibly mean F4' and F5' tornadoes for people living in the high risk region. Please stay tuned to your weatheradioes and pay close attention to the weather in your region.

Update Saturday April 14th,2012

All of the parameters still appear to be in place for a significant tornado outbreak throughout this afternoon and evening in the plains. According to Zoom Radar Blog "A 100 KT+ jet streak is anticipated to overlap an unstable air mass, where dew points should be well into the 60s and CAPE values will range from 2000-3500 J/Kg. The entrance of that jet streak will bring along 0-6 effective bulk shear values in the 70 KT range, which is more than sufficient (to say the least) to produce rotating super cells". The only thing that has changed is the risk map produced from the Storm Prediction Centre, as they have modified the high risk outlook to cover a more widespread area stretching from parts of northern Nebraska south towards the Oklahoma City area, which is not good for some.

What is more scary the tornado probabilities the SPC put out for today and tonight. They have placed a 45% zone over top of the state of Nebraska and Kansas (of there being a tornado within 25 miles of a point). I believe the last time the SPC issued a 45% region was last year during the super outbreak in Alabama. Before that event, their wasn't really any times that the SPC had forecasted a high risk. According to Zoom Radar blog this is how thing's should develop "The convection should initiate in Nebraska late this morning or early this afternoon around the low, where the forcing is the greatest. Initiation could be earlier than was anticipated yesterday. Models suggested showers would be moving through Nebraska this morning along the warm front; however, that’s not the case. What this means is the surface should destabilize quicker than expected, and storms will fire sooner as a result.

A current look at some of the storms at 2pm CDT

Later in the afternoon, as the upper-level energy ejects out of the Rockies, numerous supercells should develop in Nebraska. As for Kansas and Oklahoma, widespread storm coverage may not develop along the dry line until the 6-7 PM range. However, the environment along the KS/OK is as good as any today. So if/when storms develop around there, expect for them to become tornadic rapidly. Storm coverage will expand across the dry line well into the evening, meaning night time tornadoes are a big concern. Eventually (around midnight or so), the cold front should catch up with the dry line, and a large squall line should develop. There will still be a tornado threat with this squall line overnight, as well as the threat for very strong winds and some severe hail." So far things are getting active so make sure you stay tuned to the weather in the states, use common sense and have a family action plan. I will be providing info on Twitter throughout the afternoon.

Head to A Weather Moment blog for details on the Tornado Outbreak Aftermath

3rd Spring Storm System of the year set to roll in tomorrow

The seasons third storm system will start moving through southern Manitoba tonight through until Saturday afternoon. Bringing with it some seasonal temperatures, breezy conditions and the possibility of rain as well as thunderstorms. Not before we see one more day of nice weather in Southern Manitoba.

Conditions will continue to be pleasant across southern Manitoba, except for the odd couple of showers or storms in the SW, temperatures will be near 20C. There will also be a strong SE wind blowing near 40 km/h, it is a great ending to the beautiful weather we have experienced today.

Tonight an area of low pressure from Montana will enter SW MB and gradually lift to the NE as the night progresses, reaching the red river valley tomorrow afternoon. This will bring an area of rain and possible thunderstorms to southern manitoba tonight and most of tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will fall inbetween 5-10mm or locally higher in thunderstorms. This system will pull out saturday and allow for a NW flow to develop bringing cooler conditions, and possible below average temperatures.

 I will post more details in the comments section...

Springtime Storm System to bring some Cooler Weather to the Province this weekend

An area of low pressure tracking through Western and Central areas of the province will bring wet weather, cooler temperatures and windy conditions to most of southern Manitoba. Although we have one more day of nice weather to spare. Get out there and enjoy it!

 Current Temperatures as of 3pm CDT

Conditions will be fairly typical across the southern Part of the Province for the rest of the day today with forecast conditions ranging from sunny skies to possible thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to remain in the 20C range, before they cool throughout the evening to end up with overnight lows in the single digits. The winds will also be strong out of the south at 40km/h gusting to 60 km/h at times. It is another amazing end to a beautiful week with regards to the above normal temperatures.

NOAA HPC Weather Map for Tonight at 06Z

Tonight an area of low pressure will move out of Southeast Saskatchewan and will move through the parklands of Manitoba into the interlake. Featured with this low is a very powerful 40kt LLJ, Some Moderate Levels of Moisture and Moderate levels of CAPE, combine them together it will allow for some potential for showers and even areas of elevated convection to occur overnight in some southern sections. This is what we call nocturnal thunderstorms as they occur during the overnight. The main focus for storms tonight will be in Western North Dakota, as some may form in that region and lift northward into Parts of Southern Manitoba as the low travels to the NE. The cold front will go through the southern part of the province Saturday morning, bringing a chance of showers and the odd rumble of thunder or two; indications are that there will be a greater chance for rainfall in central/eastern southern Manitoba then in SW MB. After the passage of the cold front expect mainly sunny conditions with a chance for off and on showers, along with for some strong westerly winds.

Total accumulated precipitation via 48hrs

The wrap-around precipitation will begin to move into the Red River valley on Saturday night, with colder air diving to the south on the backside of the low. Current indications are that most of the precipitation will fall as snow and that the northern regions of the RRV has a higher chance of seeing flurries than the southern half. The low will continue to lift to the NE through the day on Sunday, pulling the wrap- around circulation northwards with it and out of the northern Red River valley. Most areas in the red river valley will likely see a tiny bit of snow on Sunday (about a trace), however the only areas that might accumulate a cm or two would be north of Winnipeg.

Overall we definitely are being spared with this system as the larger amounts of precipitation are forecast to fall from the Moose Jaw/Regina,Saskatchewan region along a line NE to Swan River and the Pas. The GEM-GLB is currently showing up to 75mm of precipitation, which if that were to fall as snow it would likely end up to 2 feet of snow.
Anyone who is planning to travel Saskatchewan today or on the weekend should adjust accordingly to weather conditions, and make alternate routes when necessary.

After that things will clear out for the start of the week and our temperatures will slowly rebound into the low teens by midweek, and the trend will likely continue into mid April.


Warmest March on Record ends on a mild and sunny note

Weather Data from the Month of March

Sunshine and Warm Temperatures marked a fitting end to March of 2012 as temperatures in Southern Manitoba again soared into the high teens on the weekend. According to Rob's Blog "In Winnipeg the high of 18.8C Saturday was just 0.1C off the record high of 18.9C for the 31st, set back in 1963." The warm finish made the monthly mean temperature pretty close to 2C or 2.2C, probably the warmest March on record since record keeping books started in the city in 1872. Overall the month was a astounding 8C above the normal, considering the 30 year normal is -6C. We were also 0.6C above the previous warmest month of March of +1.6C, set back in 1878. Now if only we can continue this trend into april so we can break more significantly old records.



A historical 12 day March scorcher through the mid part of the month was responsible for the record breaking month,which helped smash some of the all time March records throughout southern Manitoba and a Broad Scope of Central North America into Ontario. The March heat wave aided rapidly in melting our 25cm snow pack in portions of southern Manitoba, within just a few days. All between the 10th and the 14th, temperatures were more typical of early May in the time period from the 11th and the 23rd. The month also set 8 new daily record highs in Winnipeg,including all time warmest March temperature of 23.7C on the 19th.

Although all of this warm weather in March may not completely signal a start to a warm spring, as Rob mentioned "of the past 9 previous warmest Marches in Winnipeg, only 4 were followed by above normal temperatures in April, and ALL had below normal temperatures in May! Those springs had an average of 20 freeze days in April, and 9 in May with frosts well into mid to late May (even the first week of June some years!)". Also you may not want to put your snow shovels away yet,we can still see measurable snow in between the months of April to May. Rob said "Of those past 9 warm Marches, all were followed by some measurable snow in April (including a 25 cm snowstorm April 15-17, 1910), and 4 had snow in May". So don't let this warm start to Spring fool you! This is Winter Peg after all, and a warm start to the spring anywhere in the province is no guarantee that the cold weather is over!

                  
Below is a review of all the records that were broken last month Via (A Weather Moment blog)

• 8 daily record high temperatures (11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 22)
• Earliest 20°C reading on record (March 18)
• Warmest overnight low in March (14°C on the night of March 18/19)
• Earliest thunderstorm on record since 1953 (Evening of March 19th)
• Warmest March day on record (March 19th, 23.7°C)
• Most significant departure from normal temperature for any day of the year (+23.4°C above normal on March 19th)
• 4 consecutive days over 19°C (Only 4 days since records began have reached that mark. From Rob’s Blog: In other words, it took only 4 days during this warm spell to match what took 140 years to accomplish.)
• Warmest March on Record (Mean temperature of 2.2°C, beating the previous record of 1.6°C set in 1878).
• Highest dew point in March (17°C on March 19th, need to finish parsing data set to verify)

            Top 5 warmest Marches in Winnipeg (since 1872) Via Rob's Blog
                1. 2012 .......... +2.2C
                2. 1878 .......... +1.6C 
                3. 1910 .......... +1.0C
                4. 1973 .......... +0.5C
                5. 2000 .......... -0.1C