A Look Back At The Month of May, And A Chance For Us To Dry Out A Little Bit......

(Info Provided in part by Brad from A Weather Moment,
and other details by Mike the Author of this blog)


After Seeing deluges of rain over the past 10 days Southern Manitoba is finally forecast to see some sunny dry weather conditions. A high pressure system will move through our area allowing for sunny skies over the next couple of days, with daytime highs pushing back to the seasonal normal. That is about 21C for Brandon, 22C for Portage La Prairie and Winnipeg.

 Overall Precipitation Average through the month of May

Focusing on Winnipeg, we are absolutely soaked, according to Brad from AWM "So far this month, many areas of the city have seen over 100mm (3.94”) of rain, with some areas of the west end seeing closer to 125mm (4.92”)." This is definitely a huge amount of rainfall for a single in Winnipeg; the Manitoba Agricultural department released a report showing that Winnipeg has had 46% more rainfall than normal over the last 30 days. Brandon has also had close to 50% more rainfall than normal in a 30 day period, although a little less up in Dauphin and areas along the International Border where drier conditions persist. This wetter than normal month has broken a 9-month stretch of drier than normal conditions for parts of Winnipeg and the city has already shattered last years total summer precipitation. If summer is considered the months of June, July and August, our 100-125mm of precipitation in Winnipeg this month smashes the 93mm we received throughout the Summer of 2011. As well through the summer last year only 7 days the airport reported thunderstorms in the area. So far in May alone we have reported 5 thunderstorms, put that on top of the other 5 we experienced in March and April altogether we have seen 10+ thunderstorms. Looks like we are leaving 2011 in the dust in terms of our storm activity. Overall we are off to a wet start to the summer that has definitely been more promising on our storm front than last year.

Time for our Weather outlook.....

Positioning of the high pressure system at Noon Today

Over the next couple days, we will see the sun and the return of warmer temperatures. An area of high pressure will continue moving our region tonight before it enters NW Ontario Tomorrow allowing for a southwest flow to take place, bringing some warmer weather for the day. We will see a small chance for some showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday Afternoon as a trough pushes through the Red River Valley, bringing our temperatures up into the mid to high twenties for the weekend.

Cool Stormy Weather on The Way For the Weekend

Manitoban's get ready for a wakeup call, the next few days are going to be ridiculously cold with daytime highs over 10°C below the normal and overnight lows over 5°C below the normal. The sun will make only a couple appearances over the next few days as another forecasted storm system pushes into Southern Manitoba, bringing another round of rain and a few possible strong thunderstorms to the Red River Valley, especially near the border.

The 850 MB Temps forecasted by the GFSX Model for tonight at 00Z ( 7pm), as temps will cool with the passage of a trough.

This downright cool weather has brought late-season snow to several communities in Western Manitoba including The Pas, Flin Flon and higher elevations over SW Manitoba. Areas that received snow in higher elevations were Swan River, Duck Mountain, Porcupine Provincial Forest and Riding Mountain. (Even Rob wrote out an article on the snowfall event, read up on his perspective here) Just be glad we never experienced any snow in our region.

Tonight, there is a high threat potential for frost in most of Southern Manitoba, as we see the arrival of another surface ridge and clearing skies. Areas most at risk for frost tonight appears to be in all of the southwestern portion of the province into the park lands, east into the RRV especially areas north of the transcanada highway. The threat also extends east through Winnipeg towards the Ontario border. Areas not included in the risk for frost are along the American Border. There currently is a frost warning in place for almost the whole southern section of the province view the map here.

 Tomorrow will be a transitioning day with temperatures reaching the 12 to 17C range in all of the south, with cloud streaming northwards from the Dakota's with the next system. Rain will push up towards the American Border by morning, likely staying south of the border all day tomorrow. The rain will stay south of the border until the big northward push comes on Sunday.

Showers and Storms will be likely throughout the day on Sunday in Southern Manitoba, as the system pushes North. As shown by the NWS Weather Maps.

Potential for more showers on Monday

And quite the push it will be! Rain and Isolated Thunderstorms will be going on throughout Saturday night south of the border, although the storms will likely weaken by sunrise and the rain will slowly push northwards across the Red River Valley. Most regions across Southern Manitoba should expect the showers to start fairly early on Sunday and last throughout the day, with the possibility for the formation of non-severe storms especially in the RRV during the late afternoon,evening. The rain and possible storms will taper off west to east overnight and will clear out. With another potential for showers Monday as this significant weekend system brings wraparound showers, while it leaves our province. Overall rainfall amounts in Southern Manitoba can be expected to be in between 5 and 10mm in showers,(at least 30+mm) amounts in storms. And inbetween 20 and 30 mm in western manitoba where you will be closer to the heavier rain.This really isn't the best of news for this year's teddy bear picnic, but hopefully it won't dampen their fun and spirits. 

This likely will be the last cold blast of the season, before we start experiencing some warmer May like weather, and some hot June temperatures. That is a long ways away from now, so let's have a look at the improving weather after this rainfall....  Conditions do look like they will improve through the middle of next week, with temperatures pushing back towards the 20C degree mark and some sunny conditions making an appearance. In the mean time put on some PJ's or slippers and kick back and relax as this weekend will be a stay at home weekend. Except for the storm chasers out there who may want to storm chase on Sunday here or in North Dakota if conditions follow through.

Back to Nicer Seasonal Weather

After a crazy few days across the Southern Part of the province, we will be in for some calmer seasonal days before the next system moves through our area on the weekend. We will see thing's clear out this morning with our temperatures going up to inbetween 15 and 20C. We will see only a slight chance for showers in all regions this afternoon, they should be able to clear out by this evening. Overnight lows will be in the single digits in the South, near 5 and 10C. Thursday and friday will be much nicer with overall conditions forecast to be a mix of sun cloud towards sunny conditions, with a chance for showers as the system we experienced last night moves out of our province. Forecast temperatures will be near 20C over the next few days, before another significant storm system moves into our area this weekend. Hopefully not during the Teddy Bear Picnic. 

Another Round of Stormier Weather Set to Return to Southern Manitoba Tomorrow

 After a fairly rainy day with mild temperatures we can expect more possible showers overnight, before more unsettled weather pushes in and lasts through midweek.

Projected Dewpoint Temperature in Southern Manitoba Tomorrow at Midnight, when convection is forecast to roll through the region.

Tomorrow, a low pressure system will push into Northern North Dakota, that will help strengthen the warm front which will be draped across the region. Southern Manitoba will stay north of the warm front keeping our forecast daytime highs in between the 20 to 25C range. Weak capping in parts of Southern Manitoba will result in thunderstorms during the day, that probably won't be severe. The main action likely will come by late evening as we see the development of possible severe thunderstorms as a 30 to 40 Knot low level Jet overides a warm front, that will pump fairly moist air northwards.  According to Brad from A Weather Moment "Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the mid teens, combined with negative lifted indicies, CAPE values are expected to climb close to 1500J/KG." The area of storms will likely come out of North Dakota, and cross the warm front into Southern Manitoba as they lift Northeastwards. The question is will they be surface based convection with possible tornadoes, or Elevated Convection with damaging winds and hail. Overall the thunderstorm potential will be tricky to forecast as it is always tends to be, so for the first time in my blog's history details will be available in my comments section as we get closer. 
The upper low will move east on Wednesday, allowing for fairer conditions to take place followed by possible showers and storms by the end of the week.

Update May 22nd,2012
Severe thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front will slide through North Dakota allowing for an area of convection to occur by mid afternoon, which may be severe at times. The storms will likely lift north into Southern Manitoba as the front moves eastward. Overall Southern Manitoba will be at threat for storms this evening, for hail, damaging winds, and intense lightning. (This graphic above from Brad's Blog shows the potential).

Weather graphic of the day

           Storms possible as the day goes on, details here..... Storms on the Way

More Showers and Thunderstorms on the way for Parts of southern Manitoba

While temperatures will soar to near 30 degrees today, the Red River Valley should be prepared for showers and possible thunderstorms to develop by mid towards late afternoon. This will result from a low pressure system that will move into the area and tap into heat and moisture.

Temperature outlook from the weathernetwork

According to A Weather Moment " A strong capping inversion will be in place over the Red River Valley, heat and moisture being pumped northwards will be trapped at the surface, allowing our temperature to soar to the 30°C mark and pooling moisture that will push our dewpoints up to around 15°C". Today will will be a glorious day throughout the morning and early afternoon. Although conditions will start to breakdown by late afternoon as a surface low lifts north into Southern Manitoba.

According to A Weather Moment "The surface low will travel along a pre-existing surface trough and be supported by a shortwave ejecting northeastwards from the main upper trough, still anchored through Montana and Wyoming. As well With the heat trapped near the surface, the Lifted Index is expected to drop to the -2 to -8 values, with the lowest values running along a line from Gretna, MB to Bisset, MB and increasing to the southeast of that line. The heat combined with ample moisture is also expected to produce high CAPE values generally from 2000 to 3000J/kg. Increasing mid-level lapse rates with the approach of the shortwave will provide enough destabilization to erode the capping inversion through the afternoon and allow showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the warm front, initially concentrated near the triple point of the system. The showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage as the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies." 

The severe weather threat is well defined says brad from A Weather Moment,"as EHI values rise to between 1.5-2.0 by late afternoon, which when combined with the presence of 30-35kt of bulk shear certainly presents the chance for supercell storms to develop. A few things hamper my excitement, though:

• Bulk shear isn’t really all that impressive; the really good shear moves through Western Manitoba through the day today, lifting northwards into the Interlake. The shear diminishes to the SE and isn’t particularly strong where the greatest CAPE is. When it comes down to it, it’s likely that we’ll end up with marginally strong shear on top of marginally high CAPE this afternoon, with the most favorable conditions missing each other.
• CAPE values may be too high. The NAM & GFS have been forecasting dewpoints slightly higher than have materialized. The amount of energy for storms to work with is going to be heavily dependant on the dewpoints that develop this afternoon, and if they don’t make it as high as forecast then we’ll be seeing weaker storms.
• Too many storms. With so many marginally severe features, we may see quite a few showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon as the cap erodes. If too many fire off, then it will be difficult for any one storm to oragnize itself into anything that poses a severe weather threat."

All that being said, a potential for severe weather does exist today across south-central and southeast Manitoba. The main threats should severe weather develop will be hail and/or the possibility of a tornado."

Severe Weather threat as highlighted by Brad

Overall everyone should be on the lookout for severe weather and or Storms, as well updates will be available on Twitter.

Significant Warmup on The Way with Humid Conditions and Thunderstorms

Today marks the start of rising temperatures across Southern Manitoba. Although daytime temperatures will be somewhat cool again throughout today.According to a weather moment blog "plenty of warming will be going on just off the surface, bringing us substantially warmer overnight low's and temperatures soaring into the upper twenties and low thirties by the end of the week".

Winds will pick up out of the southeast today as we move onto the back of the high pressure system that moved behind over our area behind a cold front that brought some damaging winds to Southern Manitoba on Monday evening. According to a weather moment "This marks the beginning of a large-scale shift in the upper atmosphere that will rapidly push heat and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northwards. Temperatures will only climb to around 20°C today, but our overnight low will show evidence of all the warm air moving in aloft by dropping down to only around 13°C, about 10°C warmer than our overnight low last night.

"The heat and moisture will begin to move in on Thursday as a warm front lifts north of the Red River Valley, our daytime high will push towards the high twenties with temps that will likely settle near 30C. It will feel a lot different than our high of 29C on Monday, because a completly different feature "Moisture". While dewpoints are forecast to stay low today, they will begin to increase overnight and throughout Tomorrow, likely in the low teens Thursday evening. The likely heat and moisture will continue to build in for Friday, with overall temperatures continuing to climb near 30C, with dewpoints in the mid to high teens. if you like tropical weather it will be perfect for you, with humidex's forecast in the mid 30C range.

As for precipitation none can be expected today or tomorrow, but as the heat and moisture builds in there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. the chance for precipitation will be elevated on saturday as there will be additional lift and triggers present in the RRV, as a cold front goes through our area. a post will be available on Friday, on our Thunderstorm potential.

It will be nice so get out there and enjoy it! A post will be available on Friday, about the thunderstorm potential.

Mild Summer Temperatures Expected to Return with The Arrival of Thunderstorms

After a week of experiencing rain, and cool temperatures, the sun shines and summer returns. Beautiful weather is on the way for all regions of Southern Manitoba, with lots and lots of sunshine and the years first hot summer like- temperatures. The Weather will return right back to normal on Friday, after we see a cold front sweep across southern Manitoba through Thursday and Thursday Night.
 

Ridging indicated at 12hr- 28hr in Southern Manitoba on this Upper Level Forecast Map, before the cold front goes through. Yellow is the Polar Jet, Orange is the Subtropical Jet.

A southerly flow has moved into Southern Manitoba below a upper ridge that is sliding east over the Canadian Prairies, pushing the warm flow of temperatures from the Plains of the USA into our area. Temperatures will climb into the 20's all across the south Today with winds increasing to in between 30 and 40km/h out of the south by this afternoon. Temperatures will drop to the low teens across Southern Manitoba Tonight, as the southerly winds will help keep our temperatures up in the warmer areas. Tomorrow the real heat moves into the South with temperatures in between 22-29C. The air might feel a little more humid ( like 30C) with dewpoints in the low teens.

Thunderstorm Threat for Thursday Night from the A Weather Moment Blog

The hot weather is expected to end by Friday afternoon as winds shift around to the North, but not before we see thunderstorms. A cold Front is expected to cross parts of SW Manitoba and South Central Manitoba Throughout the day on Thursday, reaching the Red River Valley by Thursday evening. As it encounters a hot humid air mass and high dewpoints it could allow for some strong to severe storms to form either west of the Red River valley or in the Red River Valley. Any storms that form will be able to work with Cape indices at an elevated level of 500 to 750 J/KG. Regardless the storms will follow the southerly flow out ahead of the front so they will likely come from the south, and move east with the cold front. They will gradually move into NW Ontario as the night goes on. A brief period of cooler weather can be expected on the weekend before thing's warm up into the high 20's during next week with the approach of the northerly shift in the Subtropical Jet stream.

Blog Update Coming soon!

Hello everyone, I apologize for few updates over the past week as I have been quite busy. I will be providing an update on our weather conditions Wednesday Morning. Until then Please refer to A Weather Moment and Rob's Blog. Until Then Take Care!

Today's Weather Graphics